Peter Schiff Gets the Last Word (and the Last Laugh)

Here’s a great video from YouTube that juxtaposes last year’s predictions about the housing market with this year’s news. It’s not Seattle-specific, but I thought it would be fun for a Friday. I’ll be back with the June reporting roundup (a.k.a., the NWMLS press release echo chamber) either later today or sometime tomorrow.

Hat tip: HousingPanic

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    blueskitten says:

    Arrrgh… every time I hear the voice of reason shouted over or laughed at in the popular media it makes my skin crawl.

  2. 2
    CKT says:

    Great video. Any idea when it aired? If it really was in May of this year, when it looks like it was uploaded to YouTube, then the guys predicting 10% appreciation this year aren’t just wrong, they’re pathetic!

    It was clear months ago that national housing prices were heading negative YOY. Talk about drinking the kool-aid…

  3. 3
    Eleua says:

    Did anyone notice that the bulls were talking price action, whereas Schiff was talking fundamentals?

    Happens every time.

  4. 4
    rose-colored-coolaid says:

    I don’t know guys, that one bull made a pretty valid point that normal growth on housing is 10% forever. I mean yeah if you looked at “historic trends” you might not see 10%, and if you treat “fundamentals” as fact it would be difficult to understand. But I would trust that guy because he has long hair, seems hip, and is saying “something”.

  5. 5
  6. 6
    Demersus says:

    I actually remember watching this episode, it was about a year ago.

  7. 7
    MisterBubble says:

    Hrmph. Link syntax == broken.

  8. 8
    deejayoh says:

    Washington State gets some love over at the Housing Bubble Blog today!
    The Clearest Sign Of A Slowing Market In Washington

    As expected, this thing is working it’s way in from the outer rings. The same headlines you heard in Lewis County two months ago have made their way to Pierce County today. By the end of the summer you’ll see them in King County.

    The chickens are coming home to roost.

  9. 9
    Alan says:

    That guy saying prices were going to drop is such a nerd. Those other guys were much cooler and they were all, like, laughing at him and stuff. That was so cool. People who say housing prices are going to drop are Loosers.

  10. 10
    Eleua says:

    The only thing the clip needed was to have about a half-dozen bikini clad beauties writhing in pleasure as the bulls were pontificating, while hooded muscle-men pounded Schiff with pies in the face.

  11. 11
    softwarengineer says:


    But if we call it a Rambler Latte or a Split Level Mocha, then the high price is more than justified.

  12. 12
    declinest says:

    that video is from dec of 2006. there is a link on peter schiff’s website to it. videos are on the left a bit down.

  13. 13
    Matthew says:

    When this bubble is finally unravels, these non believers should be made to wear their comments like scarlet letters for everyone to see.

    I love how they scoff at Schiff as if he is some lunatic spouting some crazy language that they can’t understand. The sad thing is that when judgment day commeth, they will all have disappeared, never to be heard from again, and will probably deny that they ever said that there wasn’t a bubble.

  14. 14
    misty buss says:

    The voice of reason says “rent, don’t pay inflated price. This enraged the panel into shouts of “BUY NOW”!!! Renting is so ANTI ESTABLISHMENT.Our lease is up, there are many cheaper options sitting vacant, we have so many choices it is overwhelming, freedom to move anywhere we please.

  15. 15
    NoFate says:

    Seattle is going to dry up sooner than later now. For shits & giggles I checked out the mortgage rates on rentals on E-Loan yesterday. Keep in mind I plug in a zip code and it searches 100s of loans across the country to look for the best ones.

    The best deal I could find on a 30 yr. fixed was >16% down + almost 4 points on a $500k house. For this 20% invested the best mortgage rate was over 7%.

    Keep in mind this was the SMALLEST down payment accepted …and I have a fairly high credit score and offered to show proof of income.

    Even 2 months ago you could get 10% down (and probably lower), but the rates were really steep (>12%). Now these loans are not even available.

    Speculation is officially dead.

  16. 16
    Peckhammer says:

    I especially enjoyed this gem in the NY Times today:

    ATLANTA — Despite a vibrant local economy, Atlanta homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and losing their homes at one of the highest rates in the nation, offering a troubling glimpse of what experts fear may be in store for other parts of the country.

  17. 17
    Doug says:

    What’s even more shocking than his predictions, is that he’s been making the same prediction for years and years and years and now people are like “wow, this guy nailed it”. It’s even more shocking to me that people actually believe what this yahoo says even though he’s been wrong for the previous ten years and now tout him like the next coming of Nostradamus. If you say something long enough you’re bound to hit it right at least once over a twenty year time frame. I’m not a fan of anyone who earns money by preying on peoples fears, and that is exactly what Schiff does. He is a stock broker who specializes in foreign investments, so he has a tremendous amount to gain by making Americans think that the best investment is not in the US. He reminds me of the guy you always see holding the sign that says THE END IS NEAR, or the cult leaders who have preyed on peoples fear that the Lord, Aliens, or whatever are coming soon! Those who follow Schiff will meet the same ruin that those people did and live sad depressing lives worrying all the time. Enjoy life and loved ones in the short time we have in life anyways and quit promoting a guy who is using your fears to profit.

  18. 18
    LUC says:


    Give me a break, we had shills like Jim Kramer, Larry Kudlow and others calling the bottom of the stock market for the like last 6- 8 months. If people followed their advice that would have lost big money in the market.

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