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Supply & Demand Trends Continue, Market Still Tanking

Posted on November 6, 2007November 7, 2007 by The Tim

October market statistics from the NWMLS are here.

Public press release and data pdfs have not yet been posted, but I will update the post with a link once they are. Update: Here is the NWMLS press release, with links to the public pdfs.

Here’s your King County SFH summary:

October 2007
Active Listings: up 36.76% YOY
Pending Sales: down 29.88% YOY
Median Closed Price*: $443,950 – up 0.90% YOY

Yes, that’s zero-point-nine percent. The median price dropped month-to-month for the third month in a row—the first time this has happened since before 2000, and only the third time since 1993. But again, let’s not focus too much on the median price, since it is a liar and doesn’t really tell us what’s going on.

The growth in inventory slowed just a little, from the 40%+ YOY growth of the last five months to just under 40% YOY. Expect inventory to continue to decline through December, as it does every year, only to pick back up with a vengence in January.

The total number of sales in October was up slightly from September, as it is most every year. This caused the Months of Supply to drop back slightly from last month, however it still remains in record territory at 6.29.

Update: Here’s the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph:

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY
Click to enlarge

Here’s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:

King County Supply vs Demand
Click to enlarge

And just because the incredibly steep drop at the end is so dramatic, I’ll bring the SFH Median YOY change graph back this month:

King County SFH YOY Price Change
Click to enlarge

Here’s a new graph for you. It shows the total amount of SFH inventory on the market at the end of each month, with each year since 2000 overlayed on top of each other, so you can more readily compare them.

King County SFH Inventory
Click to enlarge

And here’s the same graph for pending sales:

King County SFH Pending Sales
Click to enlarge

Check back tomorrow for the news roundup. This should be fun…

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Distressed Sellers Index: October Update
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NWMLS: King County SFH Prices Hit 0% YOY.

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