According to the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the home price bust in Seattle is gaining steam again.
Down 1.0% June to July.
Down 8.2% YOY.
Last year prices rose 0.20% from June to July, and year-over-year prices were up 6.9%.
Here’s the usual graph, with L.A. & San Diego offset from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. Portland continues to experience a smaller “correction” than Seattle, falling 6.6% YOY in July.
This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Here’s the graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities:
In July, seven of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops than Seattle. Charlotte at -1.8%, Dallas at -2.5%, Denver at -4.7%, Boston at -5.4%, Portland at -6.7%, New York at -6.9%, and Cleveland at -8.1. The largest year-over-year drop was in Las Vegas, where prices plummeted just under 30% from July 2007.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
It has now been exactly one year since Seattle’s Case-Shiller index peaked, and prices have declined a total of just over 8%. One year after peaking, only two other cities had declined more than Seattle has: Tampa & Miami, at 8.8% and 17.5%, respectively.
Here’s the “rewind” chart. The horizontal range is selected to go back just far enough to find the last time that Seattle’s HPI was as low as it is now. This gives us a clean visual of just how far back prices have retreated in terms of months.
Seattle’s Case-Shiller value for July 2008 was halfway between its May and June 2006 values. So far we are “rewound” twenty-five and a half months. The June to July drop puts Seattle at yet another new post-peak low, nearly two points lower than June.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.30.2008)