Poll: What will the DOW close at for calendar year 2008?

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

What will the DOW close at for calendar year 2008?

  • Higher than 10,000. (19%, 35 Votes)
  • Higher than 9,000, less than 10,000. (22%, 42 Votes)
  • Higher than 8,000, less than 9,000. (28%, 53 Votes)
  • Higher than 7,000, less than 8,000. (22%, 41 Votes)
  • Less than 7,000. (9%, 17 Votes)

Total Voters: 188


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 11.08.2008.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

17 comments:

  1. 1
    Thomas B. says:

    Since we are doing predictions today, I will opine. I think the fair value at this point is 8500,plus or minus 500, because at that price, it has a recession priced in already. If you price much below this level, then you are ignoring good companies that have good cash reserves, balance sheets, and products (i.e. google, costco, walmart, sin stocks, PG, etc.). It won’t go above 10,000 unless it’s speculative. The market will want to see what the 4Q does and what the forward looking indicators say.

  2. 2
    Emma Anne says:

    I’m thinking it finishes right around 8000, but it will go lower than that in between. That assumes we are in a bear market rally now and not coming up from the bottom.

  3. 3
    Scotsman says:

    8057. Starting 1-1-09 it continues down to the 7,000 range.

  4. 4
    David Losh says:

    Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends.

    Oh no! Don’t buy a house because that would be stupid. Giving money to the stock market is smart. It’s so cheap.

    It’s all safe now. The governments of the world are involved and taking control, so it’s OK now. Please put your money back in the bank, it is FDIC insured. Everybody go back about your business.

    Please put more money in your SEPA, IRA, 401K, ABBA, DABBA, and DOO. The financial markets are now ready to be responsible after they lost all that other money you gave them.

    It’s lost! They had write downs so that means the money is lost, however after they lost that money it seems they found the highest cash reserves ever recorded.

    Since 1985 we have seen the manipulation of credit, finance and interest rates as a way to show profits. I think it’s time to stop. Higher prices are killing the global economies.

    Stocks are business. Stocks are rich people business. Rich people take money from the poor and keep it.

    Why would you ever think that the truly wealthy would give you money? How would that be smart for them? Why would Wal Mart give you money? They have your money, they get your money every day, why do they need your investment?

    They don’t, they just want more money.

  5. 5
    buyStocks says:

    hey,
    I think the real question is whether we embark down the road towards unstable inflation. Both increased inflation or deflation will decrease the value of the stocks and should drive down the DOW.

  6. 6

    I guessed earlier but now I’m revising. The Dow will finish the year at 10,995.00
    There will be optimism over Obama’s election and it will appear as though progress is being made in the financial industry collapse/bailout.
    I also think a month later it’s all going to come crashing down again as 4th quarter earnings get released and it is seen that no real progress has been made and no real recovery is in sight.

  7. 7
    Ben says:

    I think that it will be at around 8000 – the weak sales in the thanksgiving / xmas season will show how low consumer confidence / spending is, and more closures like the ones being reported about Circuit City will add to the distress.

  8. 8
    casey1167 says:

    The market is going up for the next month, then after the Thanksgiving day sales numbers come in, the DOW will be back where is was two weeks ago. Shoot, Ben already beat me to that opinion.. okay, I concur with Ben.

    If anything you will see a sell off around year end because no one knows how high Obama is going to really raise the capital gains tax, and if it will be retroactive….

    But fear not, after a while with Obama’s new spending plans and new taxes the market will be going up again, hyperinflation raises all boats…

  9. 9
    jonness says:

    The DOW is currently at 9325. It is experiencing a sucker rally that won’t last very long. The govt. bailout can’t work, because in order to work, the banks have to loan money for mortgages. This won’t happen, so homeownership will continue to decline and send house prices lower. This will ensure the system cracks up when the alt-a wave sets in.

    It is typical for a sharp drop in the stock market like we recently seen to be followed by a sharp rally. I bought at the bottom, and I’ll sell near the top of the mini-rally. I suspect much of the buying during the last drop was in a similar manner to what I did where I knew there would be a short sucker rally where I could make some quick easy money. But the overall trend of the market is still down, and I suspect it will touch into the sub-8000 territory before it’s over.

    But it could get a whole lot worse if the public begins to realize the massive govt. bailout is not working, and we are left with massive debt and no way to stop the collapse.. We are not out of the water by any means. We will see Q4 GDP go much more negative than the current quarter. This will signal an official deep recession is underway. Meanwhile, house prices and banks will still be in trouble. Q1 2009 won’t be a good time for stocks.

    The BS govt. bailout is already starting to meltdown. If it all starts going this way, I hope you have a job and some savings.

    Effectiveness of AIG’s $143 Billion Rescue Questioned

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/02/AR2008110202150.html?hpid=topnews

  10. 10
    Sniglet says:

    Although I still believe the Dow will eventually fall below 2000, it is a much more difficult thing to predict where we will close on December 31 2008.

    My guess (and that’s all it is) is that we haven’t approached a near-term bottom yet and that the Dow will drop to the 7000 range before the end of the year, and possibly dip into the high 6000s within the next 2 months. That said, I believe we will have multi-month rally taking us back into the 10,000 region once we hit this low. The real unknowable, however, is how quickly we will make a new low. Will it be before year-end? And how quickly will we get back to the 10,000?

    If this is going to be a multi-month rally I doubt VERY much that it will be kicked off by any massive upward swings such as we saw last week. Sustainable rallies tend to creep up on you, slowly building over weeks rather than resulting from some swift rebound.

    One thing that makes me particularly skeptical that we have already seen a short-term bottom is the simple fact that almost EVERYONE believes this is the case. Even most of the bearish pundits are now calling for a relief rally of some duration.

    Above all else I believe that this bear market (like all bear markets) will do whatever is necessary to fool the majority of investors, including the bears.

  11. 11
    BrianL says:

    I don’t doubt the DOW will continue down, but why is 2000 the magic number in your mind?

    Last time I looked, inflation adjusted trend suggested somewhere between 5000 and 6000 would be a return to the norm. Are you expecting long term deflation to do the rest of the compensation?

  12. 12
    mukoh says:

    BrianL
    Sniglet has all kinds of magical numbers like 80% down, 2000 DOW. Its a fun read.

    IMHO DOW will see 7k stable sometime through the end of the year, last two weeks or so as there is a tax advantage write off dumps, as well as other end of the year events such as retail numbers and blah blah blibidy blah.

  13. 13
    buyStocks says:

    I do agree with Sniglet that were in a secular bear market, and that a continued intermediate-term volatility will patiently crush all short-term and intermediate-term speculators, and capitulate many long-term investors. I think the recession is the least of our worries(specifically regarding the stock market) in intermediate/long term, and that the threat of unstable inflation/deflation will pose the most long-term damage.
    I’m guessing were gonna have many unpredictable bottoms and peaks. Despite this I’m still gonna buy index funds when it “seems” low, and for insurance purposes considering hedging with futures when it “seems” high”. I’m guessing for a DOW in the 5-6K at some point.

  14. 14
    buyStocks says:

    error above, I meant “safe” options, not “risky” futures

  15. 15
    economist says:

    Stocks are business. Stocks are rich people business. Rich people take money from the poor and keep it.

    Good thing the RE industry isn’t like that, eh Dave?

  16. 16
    BackToBasic says:

    Who cares about the DOW at end of this year? I am not cash out now. I am buying little by little using the saving from rent vs. buy. I wish the DOW still stay low for quite a while until I need the money. Wish it stay below 9000 for another 5 years and shot up to 15000. I will use the gain to buy an affordable house all in cash.

  17. 17
    The Tim says:

    For the record, the Dow closed on December 31st 8,776.39.

    So the plurality of Seattle Bubble voters called it correctly.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.