A couple weeks ago we mentioned a recent Bill Virgin column in which he sorta kinda called a bottom for housing (and the economy) in 2009. Well, a lot has changed in Bill’s world in the last few weeks, and his tune has changed slightly.
Forecast of short recession looks shaky
It is a sobering reminder of one’s insignificant place in the universe when news that one’s employer and one’s job are likely to evaporate in 60 days counts as no better than the third most significant local economic story of the day.
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On the evening that news was breaking about the Seattle P-I’s demise, your business columnist was out on a speaking engagement at a meeting of a local business group, blithely propounding the view expressed two weeks ago in this space that 2009’s economic outlook is not hopeless, and that there are some reasons (lower energy costs, the eventual bottom to the housing market and bad assets in the banking system) to believe that the recession, as nasty as it is proving to be, may also be short-lived.Of the three panelists discussing the economy, that was the most optimistic outlook. Asked when there might be signs of a turnaround, said columnist predicted they could appear as soon as late in the second quarter.
Given the events of the last few days, Mr. Business Columnist, care to revise or extend your remarks?
There’s always the temptation to succumb to the notion that a recession isn’t all that bad, as long as it’s not happening to you, but once the floodwaters of the economy hit one’s own doorstep, it graduates to status of depression.
Other news would certainly tend to suggest a rethinking of the optimistic forecast.
As usual, Bill’s column is a thoughtful and engaging summary of the current economic issues facing our region. Read the whole thing.
Three writers I’ll miss the most with the end of the P-I: Bill Virgin, Mark Trahant, and Aubrey Cohen. Why does the paper with all the good economic/real estate writers have to be the one going under?
(Bill Virgin, Seattle P-I, 01.12.2009)