The report explores the effects of both an immediate withdrawal of Boeing in 2013 and a 10-year phased withdrawal from 2013 to 2022. In addition to estimating the drops in employment and migration, they also take a guess at how Boeing’s departure would affect home prices.
From the report:
Lower population growth reduces the demand for housing, which in turn reduces home prices. Chart 4 shows the percentage point difference in Central Puget Sound region home prices between the immediate withdrawal and baseline scenarios. The difference starts at three percent in 2013 and widens to 6.5 percent by 2030. For the rest of the state, the average reduction in home prices is smaller, 0.4 percent in 2013 and 1.5 percent in 2030.
With the phased withdrawal, however, the effect builds more slowly. By 2022, prices in the Central Puget Sound region are 4.5 percent below the baseline; by 2030, 5.9 percent below.
Interesting analysis. 5.9% to 6.5% seems to be a little low to me, but at least it’s a starting point for a discussion about the possibility of Boeing packing up and heading out.