About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    I paddled by both of these listings Saturday on a kayak outing, and thought it would be interesting to see what people think of them.

    Although the listing for the first one (29045106) doesn’t give a square footage, public records put it at 830 sqft, which sounds about right. From the river anyway it looks pretty tiny.

    Be sure to check the prior sale history of both of them. I especially love that the sellers of 28192363 are asking $243,000 more than they paid in 2007, just months before the peak of the bubble.

  2. 2
    Everett_Tom says:

    All I can think is, I rent a larger place then the first one for $1,200 / month. Our lease just went up, and were going between $1,000 to $900 a month on another LARGER place.. (we are in Everett, and oh.. geese, we’re not right on the water).. so it’s not directly comparable.

    but as someone said somewhere else (Scotsman I think), for the saving.. I could have a DARN nice vacation once a year.. I could even afford to take my wife with me..:) [ for Context, I think Scotsman suggested going by yourself and leaving the spouse to take care of the house..]

    (Rough numbers: @ 20% down, asking price of $549,000.. 30 years @ 5% is about $2,350, not counting taxes & insurance)

    So for giving up the location, and moving 20 – 30 min north, I could have $2,350 – $1000 = $1350 per month * 12 months = $16,200 / year for vacation.

    Blows my mind..

  3. 3
    k says:

    Hey, you gotta pay extra for the HDR in the photo of the second one!

  4. 4
    EconE says:

    That one for $1,918K is juuuuust nasty. Talk about a big steaming pile of beiges and browns. What style of house is that anyways? It looks like a Ramada Inn.

    Wouldn’t it be better rent…

    WHEN ONLY THE BEST WILL DO!!!!! IMPECCABLE 4800+sf waterfront house on 70 feet of Evergreen Point WATERFRONT!!! Stunning and sweeping Lake Washington and Olympic Mountain view!!!!, 100…yes, ONE HUNDRED foot dock with BOATLIFT!!! Enjoy beautiful Pacific Northwest sunsets, sitting on your dock while getting absolutely sh**faced!!! MARBLE AND GRANITE!!!, GORGEOUS HARDWOODS!!! LUXURIOUS STAINLESS APPLIANCES!!! LANDSCAPING INCLUDED*

    *(housekeeper, personal assistant, and nannies are regretfully not included due to financial constraints)

    for $7,500 (or perhaps a bit less) from UrbanAsh?


    No…I don’t get any kickbacks.

    Think about it. You wouldn’t have to spend $17,000 (or more) a year on taxes, and Lord knows how much you would have to pay for a dang groundskeeper for 1.6 acres, whatever it takes to maintain a pool you’ll hardly ever get a chance to use, insurance (lots more because you’ve got that pool I’d bet)…then there’s the usual maintenance. I sure wouldn’t want to have to be the one to replace either if those refrigerators if they were to break down.

    The small one. Looks Chillin. I like it.

    However…that’s a loooong way to go to get out to the lake if boating/waterskiing/wakeboarding is your thing.

    not to mention…

    I’ve seen 2 BR waterfront houses w/ moorage on Mercer Island and other parts of NW Lake WA for $1,800-$2,000.

    Both overpriced, the big’un especially.

  5. 5
    EconE says:

    no…no…on second thought…make that…


  6. 6
    Plastic Bags says:

    RE: k @ 3

    I thought the picture of the tennis court was the most realistic. LOL

  7. 7
    Eastside Westside it's all good says:

    I wish there was the “they are both absurdly overpriced” option. hard to pick between those two dogs…

  8. 8
    Colin says:

    Speaking of paddling by, that’s a floodplain. What are the insurance implications, not to say the common-sense implications?

  9. 9
    kfhoz says:

    RE: Colin @ 8 – That was a floodplain before the level of the lake was lowered by the Montlake cut.

  10. 10
    darth_s says:

    There are 2 votes for “fairly priced” !!!! I believe that many realitors/investors/flippers out there still live in a fantasy world hoping/dreaming/hallucinating/praying that the glorious days of the recent bubble will come back “in a dime”. They just ignore/close their mind to the fact that the banking system in America is in a near death emergency room and the unemployment in WA is doubled in just one year. Unbelievable, unbelievable indeed!!!

  11. 11
    Alan says:

    All it takes is one person who is willing and able to buy at that price and it is suddenly fairly priced.

  12. 12
    Phillip Duggan says:

    I think they’re both ridiculous but my gut points towards 29045106 being worse, just because I know more about the price range. For 550k, there’s a lot out there that seems like a much better deal. The other one seems overpriced but I also have no idea what you really get for 2 million. If somebody is going out to spend that much, a house larger than most yards seems like what you’d want.

  13. 13
    old ballard says:

    It’s Kenmore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I won’t even rent there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. 14
    The Tim says:

    Well, MLS #28192363 was the first to get a price drop: $118,000 down to $1.8 million.

    MLS #28192363 is still sitting at $549,000.

  15. 15
    Racket says:

    I have been in the 1.8 Mill house.

    Its a nice house with a huge garage. The owner has a awesome camaro collection.

    It’s really well done, but at 1.8 million unless you could profit from stamping out a few more houses up above (which you can’t now) it is overpriced.

  16. 16
    The Tim says:

    Ouch, burned. MLS #28192363, priced at $1,918,000 when this was posted in April, sold on December 18 for $997,500.

    48% off the original asking, and 40% off the February 2007 price. Yowch.

  17. 17
    Scotsman says:

    RE: The Tim @ 16

    I can see it making sense for some at that price- a lot of house, on the water, good for kids, etc. But a spanish theme, in Kenmore? No thank you.

  18. 18
    AMS says:

    Where’s the both are overpriced option?

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