Mid-Week Open Thread (2009-05-20)

Here is your open thread for the mid-week on May 20th, 2009. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

73 comments:

  1. 1
    Trigger says:

    Stock market is really zooming like crazy – investors started looking past dismal economic data. They are betting on a big bull run inspite of the grim news coming out from time to time. Is it a bear market rally?

    If the economy recovers and this is not a bear market rally – then prices in Seattle should start slowly stabilizing. The volume is very low. Contsruction simply died completely. So this could mean that excess inventory is being worked on. If the sellers lower the price enough THEN buyers could slowly jump in. Banks will be able to give loans because they will also bet on a bull market rally. The question is when sellers will finally agree to call it quits and offer prices from 2000 or even 1999. This could be a bargain for buyers and sellers will finally move their inventory. So this would be a win/win for everybody.

    I think the sooner we hit the bottom and sellers start asking for realistic prices the better it is for the economy. The sellers will also be happier this way because they will be able to sell faster. The only issue will be with the amount of money they will be able to get – but everything else will be ok.

  2. 2
    Bes2wait says:

    High end still getting crushed in Snohomish county 50% off

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Snohomish/4225-159th-Dr-SE-98290/home/2635176

    PS Happy Birthday Tim.

  3. 3
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Bes2wait @ 2 – Bank owned.

  4. 4
    Joel says:

    I saw this ad on Calculated Risk a couple times:
    Test Your Seattle Condo IQ

    Sadly, there is no data provided to back up the claims put forth in the quiz answers.

  5. 5
    jon says:

    RE: Trigger @ 1 – If construction is dead, and inventory is falling, then what is the incentive for sellers at the high end to lower prices? The only thing that will bring down prices is clear evidence of a wave of foreclosures in the high end. With unemployment leveling off, it looks as if enough of the high end owners will be able to refinance in time to avoid a second crash because of the resets that start next year. The resets are spread out over several years, and walking away is not an option for many of those owners.

  6. 6
    calvis says:

    What is Terre Foster thinking with this listing? I have lots of respect for Terre, but when I see listings such as this my respect goes down greatly.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/4544-177th-Ave-SE-98006/home/236940

  7. 7
    what goes up must come down says:

    Kary hmmm wave of the future?

  8. 8
    Scotsman says:

    The stock market ? Reality has left the room. Earnings shown using Schiller’s methodology lag by a quarter, hence the gap at the top verses real reported earnings. The S+P 500 should be headed over the cliff.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/5-15-09-sp-earnings.gif

  9. 9
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: calvis @ 6 – What’s your problem with that listing? I recently sold a very similar one for 1.8 in that same zip code.

  10. 10
    what goes up must come down says:

    Kary just being curious when you say you sold a listing does that mean you are a salesman?

  11. 11
    calvis says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    RE: calvis @ 6 – What’s your problem with that listing? I recently sold a very similar one for 1.8 in that same zip code.

    Excuse me Kary, but are you still living in a bubble? I ran this listing past two other agents and they both agree that the listing is overpriced. Perhaps you are missing something that the others were able to see?

  12. 12
    Magnolia44 says:

    By calvis @ 11:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    RE: calvis @ 6 – What’s your problem with that listing? I recently sold a very similar one for 1.8 in that same zip code.

    Excuse me Kary, but are you still living in a bubble? I ran this listing past two other agents and they both agree that the listing is overpriced. Perhaps you are missing something that the others were able to see?

    Ding ding ding….

  13. 13
    patient says:

    By calvis @ 11:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    RE: calvis @ 6 – What’s your problem with that listing? I recently sold a very similar one for 1.8 in that same zip code.

    Excuse me Kary, but are you still living in a bubble? I ran this listing past two other agents and they both agree that the listing is overpriced. Perhaps you are missing something that the others were able to see?

    You mean, small things like that the home was sold for half the current listing at the height of the bubble?

  14. 14
    Scotsman says:

    RE: patient @ 13

    That funny- maybe the granite and bowl sink in the bath are new. That stuff is expensive, ya know…

    Side note: I’m much too reasonable, and would never have the balls to try something like this. That’s
    probably why I’m not as rich as I could be- but I do sleep well at night, and have a lot of friends.

  15. 15
    Fran Tarkenton says:

    On the subject of missing something, what am I missing in these two new listings a block away from each other?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/707-W-Prospect-St-98119/home/133856
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/604-W-Kinnear-Pl-98119/home/132495

    Why is the latter asking >40% more than the former when I would value it as being worth less?

  16. 16
    jon says:

    RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 15
    For $3,995,000 you get “Totally remodeled in all elements – both structural & architectural.”

    For $2,225,000 you get “craftsmanship of an earlier era”. I.e. a fixer.

    Looks like the more expensive also has better views.

  17. 17
    David Losh says:

    RE: calvis @ 6RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 15

    If you have to ask the price, or are concerned about the price, you can’t afford it.

    The buyer will tell the seller what the property is worth, or should I say the buyer’s agent will tell the listing agent what the property is worth to the buyer. It’s all negotiable

  18. 18
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 15

    It’s the new economics- pay twice as much for something less.

    The older home, despite it’s immaculate yard, charming interior, superb views and greater square footage is obviously about to fall into a smoldering heap, having not been “completely rebuilt.”

    Or maybe we should jump on the cheaper home and flip it for the higher price? Ask your Realtor.

  19. 19
    Fran Tarkenton says:

    By jon @ 16:

    RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 15
    For $3,995,000 you get “Totally remodeled in all elements – both structural & architectural.”

    For $2,225,000 you get “craftsmanship of an earlier era”. I.e. a fixer.

    Looks like the more expensive also has better views.

    I’m ill-informed on what structural repairs cost, so I can’t speak to that. However, the views look about the same to me, and the cheaper house looks a lot nicer cosmetically. The remodel looks like every tacky condo that’s been built in the past 5 years, especially the kitchen (maybe I just lack an appreciation of the finer things). Add in that the cheaper house is larger and on a much larger lot (13k sq-ft v. 8k), and I don’t get how they’re even the same price, much less that far off from each other.

    Re: 17. I should have written “asking price” instead of “worth.” I don’t understand how someone could ask $4M for that property with a straight face when the $2.25M asking price is sitting on the market a block away.

  20. 20
    jon says:

    RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 19 – The $4M has a panoramic view whereas the $2.25M has merely a sound and mountain view. There is going to be a smaller number of lots with panoramic views in that close to Seattle downtown, and there are certain number of people who are willing to pay for the very best, even if the very best is only marginally better than the next rung down. That is the owner’s guess of the market clearing price. Time will tell. There is no law against starting high and working your way down. It isn’t like you can price it at $3M an expect some kind of frenzied bidding war in that price range.

  21. 21
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By Magnolia44 @ 12:

    By calvis @ 11:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    RE: calvis @ 6 – What’s your problem with that listing? I recently sold a very similar one for 1.8 in that same zip code.

    Excuse me Kary, but are you still living in a bubble? I ran this listing past two other agents and they both agree that the listing is overpriced. Perhaps you are missing something that the others were able to see?

    Ding ding ding….

    Oh, well excuse me. I guess I should just accept the opinion of people that at best are amateurs that don’t know their butts from a hole in the ground. Amateurs who have no qualifications at all. I”m sorry, but between any of you here and the agent that listed the property I’m willing to assume the agent is right and you’re wrong. Because your opinion of value of the listing is worth zero. Don’t think too much of yourselves, and by that I mean don’t think anything of yourselves.

    If you knew squat thing about how to market properties in that price range, you might have some idea what I was thinking, and what the agent who listed the property was thinking. There are many factors that go into pricing a listing. You know very few if any of them.

    But whatever.

    Oh, and thanks for not answering my question about what you were thinking.

  22. 22
    EconE says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21

    STFU and mind your manners.

    Now get your ass over to those dumpy condo’s in Lynnwood and get them sold.

  23. 23
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21

    Nice.

    Actually, the only opinion that matters is the buyers- they bring the money. We can watch the listing to see how many show up at that price…. or not.

  24. 24
    Racket says:

    Why even in a down market would you ever want to sell yourself short. If Tere, or, Kary wants to price houses high, who really cares. If Kary can sell a house at 3,000,000 more than its worth, he is doing an injustice to his client (seller) not to. There are still people out there with more money than brains, and if they want a house, whats an extra couple hundred thousand.

    “Excuse me Kary, but are you still living in a bubble? I ran this listing past two other agents and they both agree that the listing is overpriced. Perhaps you are missing something that the others were able to see? ”

    Do those 2 agents have anything listed in that neighborhood, or anything listed in that price.

    One thing I have learned is that there are a lot of really stupid real estate agents out there. I made the mistake of buying my last house with one. Saying 2 agents agree with you means about as much to me as saying 2 homeless people said that they were overpriced.

    Unless you care to divulge names of these agents so we can track their listings and see what kind of experience they have.

  25. 25
    Racket says:

    “Actually, the only opinion that matters is the buyers- they bring the money. We can watch the listing to see how many show up at that price…. or not. ”

    Correct, but if you list it at $1.8 offers may come in at $1.6 which you want. If you list at $1.6 they may come in at $1.4.

    And who says that the sellers agent even priced it? The seller could have said I want to price it at X and the agent said sure, but I think you should be at XX but the seller stood firm and its now listed at X.

    Would you as a sellers agent walk away from the deal or wait it out?

  26. 26

    “One thing I have learned is that there are a lot of really stupid real estate agents out there. I made the mistake of buying my last house with one. Saying 2 agents agree with you means about as much to me as saying 2 homeless people said that they were overpriced.”

    I don’t know any real estate agents who have won Nobel prizes, but I also haven’t met any who don’t think they’re smart. ( And yes, I’m including myself in that know it all category.)

  27. 27
    Racket says:

    Ira, while at times I may disagree with you, I never have had a reason to doubt your intelligence.

  28. 28
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Racket @ 27

    In the interest of full disclosure, what’s your relationship to real estate and/or Kary?

  29. 29
    Racket says:

    I have no connection to the real estate industry whatsoever.

    I am in the process of acquiring a second, larger home.

    I have never met Kary or anyone that participates on this blog.

  30. 30
    MrRational says:

    Hey Sniglet,

    Still think we’re headed for 80-90% declines? LOL.

    Time to take the tinfoil hat off or are we still headed for a depression? Bread lines in Bellevue?

  31. 31

    The Tim, just want to wish you a very Happy Birthday!

  32. 32
    Scotsman says:

    RE: MrRational @ 30

    There are four or five “bread lines” in Bellevue already- they’re called food banks. I’d be careful about being too smug. We’ve only gotten through the introduction of this unfolding story. Most of the chapters have yet to be written.

  33. 33
    David Losh says:

    RE: MrRational @ 30

    If you listen to the podcast there is a good point there up until he starts talking about Japan. It makes sense and is very much in line with what is happening today.

  34. 34
    EconE says:

    My apologies Kary. I was unreasonably curt. Being in Los Angeles can do that to a person.

    Let me elaborate.

    1. Believe it or not, there are actually people who may come to this site that have lived in, or are considering buying in the price level that you are talking about…perhaps higher. They have every right to espouse their opinions. Even people who aren’t considering that level should be able to state their opinions.

    2. From what I can see from the home you sold for $1.8 (Originally listed at $2.5 or possibly more per google) is WAY nicer than the one that Calvis referred to. It had better views and wasn’t perched above I-90 with northern exposure. Could you please share the original listing photos with so that we may also compare interiors?

    By David Losh @ 17:

    RE: calvis @ 6RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 15

    If you have to ask the price, or are concerned about the price, you can’t afford it.

    Oldest salesman pitch in the book.

    I was laughing with an agent I know recently regarding someone who took that same “uppity” attitude with regards to an offer on his unlisted home a few years ago. The buyer walked. House is now officially on the market. Probably won’t get as much as he could have.

    The original query as to “how much?” came from Madonna….yeah…her.

    Do you think that seller would have been better off with a different attitude?

    RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 19

    Completely agree. put 500k into the higher quality tudor and you have more bang for the buck. Not only that…the other place appears to be some sort of horribly botched home depot remodeleled sfr to multi family type dwelling.

  35. 35
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By Scotsman @ 23:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21

    Nice.

    Actually, the only opinion that matters is the buyers- they bring the money. We can watch the listing to see how many show up at that price…. or not.

    That’s very true. Which makes the opinions of those who post here even more worthless. Non-buyers are truly irrelevant. It’s only the buyers that matter, and specifically the buyers that make offers on the property in question.

  36. 36
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Racket @ 24 – And I’d add that the agents that have the listing has a pretty good sales record and a lot of experience in $1,000,000+ houses. Between what they’re willing to list a property at and the less than worthless opinions of some people here, I’m willing to assume the agents’ opinion of value is better (assuming that list price does reflect somewhat their opinion of value.)

  37. 37
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By Scotsman @ 28:

    RE: Racket @ 27

    In the interest of full disclosure, what’s your relationship to real estate and/or Kary?

    Did post 25 make so much sense that you thought he/she was an agent? ;-)

  38. 38
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: EconE @ 34 – Thank you for the apology.

    I wouldn’t purport to compare listings form listing photos (which is part of the reason why I discount the opinions here of specific listings). I will say that non-waterfront in that price range in that zip code makes the price difficult, but I won’t say it’s necessarily out of line just by looking at the listing. I suspect there’s a reason for the price.

    As to the listing photos, I think this link should work:

    http://locator.nwmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Locator&PRGNAME=MLSPictureDescriptions&ARGUMENTS=-N132068131,-N28192939,-AE

    Note that was a very difficult house to photograph, and we brought in three different photographers who spent a total of at least 40 hours taking the pictures.

  39. 39
    Sniglet says:

    Hey Sniglet,

    Still think we’re headed for 80-90% declines?

    Yes, I am still firmly of the opinion that the Seattle area will see 80% (or greater) declines in average house prices from peak by the time we hit bottom. Why would you have thought my thoughts on the subject would have changed? It’s not as if this economic rally we are currently experiencing changes anything. In fact, all the bullishness about how the economy has turned the corner convinces me even more that the economic contraction and barely even begun. Swift rallies only occur in the middle of protracted bear markets. If we really had hit a bottom, then stock prices would hardly be moving at all (for years).

    Since early this year I’ve been saying that I expect there to be a substantial economic upswing that could even bring the Dow up to the 10,000 range by year-end, only to lose all these gains and dive to lower lows in 2010.

  40. 40
    Racket says:

    So what you are saying is that I can buy a house @ about 30pct the construction cost alone not counting the land?

  41. 41
    Cheap South says:

    We should keep on posting redfin links to outrageously priced places with fantastic views. $799 /sq.ft.; wow.

  42. 42
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 38

    Kary, I know that house, and have been in it. It’s in a completely different league than the others discussed here, including the one mention by Calvis, one of a handful of absolutely premier properties on the hill. I think it’s disingenuous of you to even suggest there’s a comparison. In fact, if sold for $1.8mm it clearly makes the case that the listing Calvis references is over priced.

    I think you owe Calvis an apology. This isn’t the P.I. blog.

  43. 43
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 42 – Well I haven’t been in the other property, and wouldn’t purport to try to value it from the listing. I’m relying on the agents and what they did, and value that a lot more than the opinion of others, even if they’ve been in both listings.

    But apology? You’re kidding, right? I asked a simple question about what the issue was with the listing, and I got the responses I got. “Yes it’s the price!” would have been an appropriate response. But if someone wants to insult me with BS I’ll come right back and insult them with the truth–that their opinion is worth less than zero. I’m sorry if the truth hurts, and that’s about the only analogy I’ll give.

  44. 44
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 43

    Calvis’ reply was polite, measured, and reasonable. Yours was off the wall. Perhaps you should go back and re-read the post today. How do you know his opinion is worth less than zero? Do you have some inside information on who he is, what he does, his experience, what kind of homes he may be looking at?

    Have you ever apologized to anyone? Perhaps you would be happier over on what’s left of the P.I. blog.
    I hear it’s a huge success, perhaps in part because of the behavior of the main participants.

    Peace out, as they say.

  45. 45
    Sniglet says:

    So what you are saying is that I can buy a house @ about 30pct the construction cost alone not counting the land?

    By the time we reach the bottom (and the 80% decline I predict), construction costs will be much lower too (i.e. high enemployment will have driven down labour costs, and deflation will also lead to continued declines in the costs of materials).

    But this is beside the point. The cost of production of a given product has little or no bearing on the market price. Look at how many semiconductors are selling for less than the price of production. There are numerous examples where actual prices can be lower than production costs for many years.

    Property prices in Japan have been below construction costs (in general) for nearly 20 years.

    One other thing to keep in mind is that the scenario I envision (on the way to 80% price declines) will take place over many years. I am NOT suggesting we will see an 80% drop by the end of 2009 or even 2010. Maybe by 2015 (interspersed with a year or so of actual price increases).

  46. 46
    The Tim says:

    RE: Racket @ 40 – I attempted (via a cheesy analogy) to explain why it is possible for a product to be sold for less than replacement cost way back in 2006.

  47. 47
    Thomas B. says:

    Scotsman @44

    You should know better than to engage with Kary. He’s a salemans. He never admits he’s wrong. He has no soul.

  48. 48
    The Tim says:

    RE: Thomas B. @ 47 – Come on now. “He has no soul”? That crosses the line.

    I think people are going over the line on both sides here. Let’s keep the conversation civil here, shall we?

  49. 49
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Thomas B. @ 47 – Actually, I’ll admit I’m wrong whenever it happens. I’m just not wrong very often. One reason I’m not wrong very often is I refuse to do things I cannot do–e.g. predict the future or determine the value of properties by looking at listings on the Internet.

    But as to the issue at hand, buyers of property are not experts. They can’t go into court and testify as to the value. And there’s a reason for that. They don’t know what they’re talking about. They let owners testify as to value mainly as a courtesy. But a potential buyer saying: “I only think this is worth $X” only means that buyer isn’t interested in it at the price offered. That makes their opinion worth zero.

    What makes it worth less than zero is the harm they do when they tell an owner what they think the property is worth. That value might be high, it might be low, but whichever, to the extent it affects an owner’s actions, it is damaging. Agents have to fight that type of damage all the time, although typically it’s where someone will tell an owner their property is worth more than it is.

  50. 50
    Scotsman says:

    Green Shoots!! Here’s some posititive news (well, maybe) for ya Maggy!

    http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/shts.png

  51. 51
    Greg Perry says:

    For the 7 day period ending 5/20:

    King County SFH just missed 600 for the week coming in at 590. King County came in with 3.9MOS for the week.
    The closed count was 217 this week vs. 175 last week.

    Metro Seattle had 220 pending sales this week vs. 206 last week
    Eastside had 166 pending sales this week vs. 170 pending sales last week.

    75% of the pendings in Metro Seattle were under $500k. Metro Seattle came in with 2.9MOS for the week.

    On the Eastside 21 homes went pending over $1mil vs. 26 last week.

    Full details :http://www.workingforyou.typepad.com//realestate/2009/05/king-county-pending-sale-count-approaches-600-for-week.html

  52. 52

    By Thomas B. @ 47:

    Scotsman @44

    You should know better than to engage with Kary. He’s a salemans. He never admits he’s wrong. He has no soul.

    They say that animals and plants and fish and snakes all have souls.
    Low as they may be on the evolutionary scale, real estate agents probably have souls too :)

  53. 53
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Greg Perry @ 51 – I was just checking at a point in time where the sales for the month were 600.

    About 5% of those were bank owned, with a median roughly $150,000 below the median for all the sales!

    Less than 2% of those were short sales, with a median roughly $100,000 below the median for all sales.

    All stats are unofficial, not guaranteed, and the last two are dependent on the agent having properly selected the status of their listing at the point in time they took it to sold (or before).

    I’ve heard some real horror stories about problems with short sales closing.

  54. 54
    Greg Perry says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 53:

    RE: Greg Perry @ 51 – I was just checking at a point in time where the sales for the month were 600.

    About 5% of those were bank owned, with a median roughly $150,000 below the median for all the sales!

    Less than 2% of those were short sales, with a median roughly $100,000 below the median for all sales.

    All stats are unofficial, not guaranteed, and the last two are dependent on the agent having properly selected the status of their listing at the point in time they took it to sold (or before).

    I’ve heard some real horror stories about problems with short sales closing.

    Interesting…….

    I’m glad we’ll be able to see shorts and REO’s now!

  55. 55
    Greg Perry says:

    By Greg Perry @ 51:

    For the 7 day period ending 5/20:

    King County SFH just missed 600 for the week coming in at 590. King County came in with 3.9MOS for the week.
    The closed count was 217 this week vs. 175 last week.

    Metro Seattle had 220 pending sales this week vs. 206 last week
    Eastside had 166 pending sales this week vs. 170 pending sales last week.

    75% of the pendings in Metro Seattle were under $500k. Metro Seattle came in with 2.9MOS for the week.

    On the Eastside 21 homes went pending over $1mil vs. 26 last week.

    Full details :http://www.workingforyou.typepad.com//realestate/2009/05/king-county-pending-sale-count-approaches-600-for-week.html

    I referenced back to the link, but should have put “Statistics compiled from NWMLS, but not verified or published by NWMLS.”

  56. 56
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    I just did a search of the transactions since 5/19 at 7 something in the morning, and on specified short sales there were 2 sales, 14 back to active and 36 that went pending. Now part of that discrepancy in number of sales could be the ramping up of volume and part the fact that sales don’t have to be entered for three days, but the agent not selecting the criteria should be pretty well neutral on that because presumably they’d be just as likely to neglect to do that for one change as another.

    Also, I found an agent who apparently has at least 7 pending short sales, and they have only had 5 short sale closings in the past six months. That too could be ramping up, but in this case I looked at the sale listings to make sure I wasn’t missing any, so no selection issue there.

    Anyway, I think it’s fairly clear that short sales could be significantly affecting the pending numbers–a popular topic here recently.

    Oh, numbers not guaranteed, verified, etc., but were compiled from NWMLS sources.

  57. 57
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: The Tim @ 48 – BTW, sorry for stepping over the line. But FYI, being told I have no soul somehow doesn’t bother me a bit. The suggestion that I’m not up to date on certain market trends, that upsets me. ;-)

  58. 58
    Thomas B. says:

    Tim… I meant tongue in cheek. I guess Kary doesn’t have a sense of humor. Maybe he should read Grapes of Wrath. There is a good section on salesmen in there that is relevant to the current economic situation.

  59. 59
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Thomas B. @ 58 – Assuming you’re only talking about 47, again that didn’t bother me, nor does being called a salesman, as long as it’s referring to my activity on listings. My recollection of Grapes of Wrath is pretty weak though, other than recalling I enjoyed reading it.

  60. 60
    patient says:

    By The Tim @ 46:

    RE: Racket @ 40 – I attempted (via a cheesy analogy) to explain why it is possible for a product to be sold for less than replacement cost way back in 2006.

    I think it’s natural that homes should sell below replacement costs. Why would a used home cost as much or more than what it costs to contruct a new? Do you find it strange if you can’t get $15k for you 20 year old Corolla?

  61. 61
    EconE says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 59

    Your original listing price was nearly 40% higher than the selling price.

    Sounds like somebody other than the buyer misjudged the value originally.

  62. 62
    Scotsman says:

    RE: EconE @ 61

    That all part of the professional’s strategy- allows the buyer think they’re getting an awesome deal.
    Or something like that. Ask your local REALTOR.

  63. 63
    Eastside Westside Its All Good says:

    I think people should also consider the pricing of a listing for what it is – the opening salvo of a negotiation. There is so much that goes into pricing, positioning against sales and other listings as well as the sellers’ wants, that the expertise to execute that art well must be respected.

    Nonetheless, as a current, patient house hunter, I am free to decide whether I want to pursue a house that is being priced for today’s market or one that might be discounted for anticipated prices 6 months from now.

    And with respect Kary, I am well-informed about the market. Combined with 1000’s of other buyers, knowledgeable or not, ultimately our decisions are the market. But I did have one comment about your recent posts –

    ‘What makes it worth less than zero is the harm they do when they tell an owner what they think the property is worth. That value might be high, it might be low, but whichever, to the extent it affects an owner’s actions, it is damaging.’

    Why is it damaging to challenge the asking price of a used asset? Is a seller by definition a weak soul that has no capacity to think for themselves? Three years ago it wasn’t damaging (it wasn’t effective either…) Why is the seller’s opinion on value the only one that matters? Buyers and sellers together set the market for all assets worldwide – stocks/commodities/goods – real estate is not an exempt class of asset. A real estate transaction is merely an asset reallocation between parties. Elevating it to something greater than that is just an expression of ego.

  64. 64
    EconE says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 38

    Thanks for the pics Kary.

    Who was the architect? It looks like an Olson Sundberg Kundig Allen design.

    Hands down, it is a far nicer property than the other one and yes…I’m familiar with high end.

  65. 65
    David Losh says:

    RE: EconE @ 34

    The buyer will tell the seller what the property is worth, or should I say the buyer’s agent will tell the listing agent what the property is worth to the buyer. It’s all negotiable

    It’s worth repeating.

    I do have a listing that was over priced at $1.2 million, we are now at $849500. I inherited the listing from an agent in my office. It was an expired. The seller had been badly misinformed by numerous agents. The square footage was over stated, and the place has a charm some feel is over the top.

    It is however one of a kind for Seattle.

    The seller, as many sellers have said, wants some one to offer a price or at least a price opinion in writing. We get off the wall off hand comments about being over priced and I always say make an offer. Agents many times don’t. Buyers many times don’t.

    One listing on Queen Ann expired at $2.5 million was relisted by another agent at the same price, who actually worked the listing, and the property sold for $1.5 million. I had an investor who kept saying it was worth $1.5 but wouldn’t make the offer because he thought it was too low. He remodeled where he was instead.

    High end is something I do, but investment grade properties are more of my niche. That brings me to short sales. It’s getting brutal. Banks want financial statements from sellers to prove they can not afford the home. The problem I see is that a borrower may have a liar loan.

    A woman in my office has sixteen short sales and only two have closed. I have one that we have been in the process for two months and now the bank wants more financials. My seller is saying to let them foreclose because when he first gave them financials they wanted to modify his loan. He wants to be done with WaMu now Chase.

    This is another case of predatory lending. The borrower just wants to forget they made a mistake.

    I don’t think the foreclosure thing is going to shake out for many years to come.

  66. 66
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Eastside Westside Its All Good @ 63 – You’re missing my point. What is damaging is people that don’t know what they’re talking about giving a seller ideas what their property is worth. It’s probably more damaging if the opinion is high, because the seller is more likely to believe it. But regardless, the last thing a seller needs to listen to is what their friends, family and neighbors think is the value of their house.

  67. 67
    EconE says:

    RE: David Losh @ 65

    David…I was pointing out a particular statement you made and countered it with an extreme example.

    WRT shortsales…would you expect anything less than a full financial colonoscopy?

    Banks are emotionless entities…they will squeeze every last dime out of a person if they are able to.

  68. 68
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: EconE @ 64 – Rex Hohlbein. Builder Mike Bellan.

  69. 69
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: David Losh @ 65 – I wasn’t talking about a buyer negotiating a purchase. There that’s only damaging if the buyer offers more than what the seller is asking! ;-)

  70. 70
    EconE says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 68

    I rest my case.

    You sold a MUCH nicer home.

  71. 71
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: EconE @ 70 – That may be. I haven’t seen the other one in person. But I’m sure there are a lot of other lesser homes that have sold for more.

    A lot of factors go into what a buyer is willing to pay, including area, neighborhood, size, general layout, what they need to do to the house, etc. I just don’t think you can get the feel for that by looking at a listing over the Internet. That’s too Zillow.

  72. 72
    Racket says:

    I had no Idea that Bellan built on the eastside.

    They recentely did a really nice Suyama house in queen anne.

    I don’t think at that time the OSKA was working on projects that small.

  73. 73
    Racket says:

    I should probably rephrase

    Jim Olson, and Rick Sundberg were not working on projects that small.

    I also dont want to take away anything from Rex Holbein he is an incredibly talented architect.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.