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Case-Shiller Tiers: Middle Tier Flattens, Low & High Tick Up

Posted on July 1, 2009June 30, 2009 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $267,042
  • Mid Tier: $267,042 – $392,156
  • Hi Tier: > $392,156

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2009.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

All three tiers bumped up in April, just like last year. The low and high tiers both bumped up 0.28%, while the middle tier increased just 0.03% The low tier has rewound to March 2005, the middle and the high tiers to May 2005 (all the same as March’s data).

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2009.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

The low tier actually saw a slight moderation in YOY declines in April, similar to the blip we saw in the high tier in February. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: -18.4%, Med: -16.3%, Hi: -16.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Whereas April 2008 resulted in a bit of a bump in the chart, April 2009 looks like more of a plateau.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 06.30.2009)

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Case-Shiller: Anemic Spring Bounce in April
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NWMLS: Sales Edge Above ’08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY

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