Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2010-01-23

  • Seattle's @jillayne picked up by @calculatedrisk – FCIC Interviewing the Wrong People http://is.gd/6oO2e #
  • Consumer bankruptcy filings up nearly 50% in western WA in 2009. http://is.gd/6p0om #
  • Jon Talton @SeattleTimes opines on the Horizon Bank failure – http://is.gd/6qCa2 #
  • FYI: Seattle Bubble will be down today for a few hours for hardware maintenance. #
  • …and we're back. #
  • Steve Tytler touting his recent prognosticating prize awarded by Seattle Bubble – http://is.gd/6tKq7 #
  • Over @TechFlash @JohnCook opines about who Google might buy in the online real estate world. http://is.gd/6u6pu #
  • Andy Liu (@aceliu) ends up buying at Olive8 after all – http://is.gd/6xmLY (ht @urbnlivn @mattgoyer) #
  • Why The Administration's HAMP Anti-Foreclosure Program Will Be A Failure – http://is.gd/6xQX9 (<1% of foreclosures will be avoided) #
  • Please stand by while I update Seattle Bubble to a new layout. #
  • Seattle Bubble now updated to a new look. Have a gander and let me know what you think. #
  • Whoops! Horizon receiver bank Washington Federal's profit falls 61% – http://is.gd/6C9KZ #
  • Hmm, the site appears to be down. Support ticket submitted to my host. #
  • FYI, via @WiredTree: "We are aware that your server is down and are working to restore your services as quickly as possible." #
  • via @SeattleTimes: Empty office spaces soar in downtown "Vacancy rate hit 21.1% in the 4th quarter" http://is.gd/6E4sh #
  • "Beautiful, well maintained Queen Anne Craftsman," http://is.gd/6E5Kh -OR- 25-acre private island? http://is.gd/6E5O1 #
  • Argh! Websites all still down this morning. What's going on, @WiredTree? #
  • Hopefully Seattle Bubble will be back up soon… "there was a hardware failure on your server… we're manually moving your databases." #
  • Boeing to cut an additional 2,000 Seattle-area jobs in 2010 – http://is.gd/6FUnP #
  • Sorry everybody, looks like the site will be down for at least another couple of hours. #
  • Washington State unemployment rate rises slightly to 9.5%, Seattle metro at 9.2% http://is.gd/6GwoR #
  • Still working with my host to get the site fully up and running… please stand by… #
  • WA Legislature may pare back eminent domain this year – http://is.gd/6KOyN #
  • Zillow suggests some home purchase options for new Seahawks coach Pete Carroll http://is.gd/6KOVp #
  • Dramatic rezone puts massive 1,246-home Bellingham area development in doubt. http://is.gd/6MlPH (earlier: http://is.gd/6MlRD) #
  • via @urbnlivn – Big Shakeup At Escala (280-unit condo in midtown) http://is.gd/6Qlm8 #
  • 2010 WA Bank Failure #2: Evergreen Bank, Seattle http://is.gd/6QlD9 #
  • PSBJ's @KirstenGrind with a little more details on the Evergreen Bank failure – http://is.gd/6Qu0X #

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    Oops, apparently the plugin that auto-posted this earlier today went a bit haywire and tried to post it seven times, which resulted in the link to the comments not working. It should be okay now though.

  2. 2
    Ray Pepper says:

    Of all the inane programs this HAMP just seems to Trump them all in my book :

    “This is also known as the equity put option. As Moody’s puts its “borrowers are constantly evaluating the put option on their mortgages. As soon as the value of the option turns positive, that is the discounted present value of the outstanding loan exceeds that of the house, then the borrower will exercise the option by walking away from the loan.” This has been a tactic recently endorsed by various mainstream media sites.”

    Moody’s is right on this call. Hamp further delays foreclosures and post pones it for 5 years thereby placing a LID on property appreciation with the near certainity the home will later foreclose or be short saled. Extending the loan for 40 years once again is a bandaide on an arterial wound.

    This just takes the cake: “In addition, HAMP requires that borrowers are either currently delinquent on their payments or otherwise deemed by servicers to be at risk of “imminent default.”——–If this doesn’t promote further Strategic Default nothing will.

    How many more people must stop making payments, claim a temporary hardship, to get that 2% and 40 year loan? It will kill the refinance market! How long will it take them to understand Mtg Cramdown or a variance of it is the only way to STOP homes from depreciating. Of course we will have a Tsunami of Strategic defaults but were going to get them anyway.

    As a commercial says: “Its the biggest no-brainer in the history of the world.” stop making payments and get a 2% loan with a 40 year amort. Dump the house later if your still underwater.

  3. 3
    Ray Pepper says:

    From Steve Tytler:

    As I stated a couple months ago in my annual housing market predictions for 2010, I think home prices MAY fall a little bit more this year, but only about 5 percent. And I think there is a “DECENT CHANCE” that we “MAY” finally bottom out some time this year, but we won’t know that for sure until home prices start going back up again. (YA THINKKKKKK?)

    So the good news is that I think that the worst is over and home prices “PROBABLY” won’t fall much farther. The bad news is that I don’t think home prices will go up very much any time soon. If I am right, home prices will “PROBABLY” remain flat for the next few years.

    “I know some of my friends in the real estate industry don’t like it when I talk down the housing market. (WHY DO YOUR “FRIENDS” NOT WANT YOU TO TELL THE TRUTH BASED ON YOUR OPINION? WHAT KIND OF FRIENDS ARE THESE?)


    After watching these videos (yes, I know I watched them–Do you believe Best Mtg educated their clients in the BEST way they could?) Were they educated about Buyer rebate Brokerage firms? Why not? The middle couple says they are poor… blatantly. Were they honestly educated about how to buy Real Estate?

    I think Steve’s “friends” are inhibiting his ability of GIVING ALL THE FACTS and educating his clients properly. Not giving ALL THE FACTS is as bad as lying when working in the best interests of your clients. Selling money and getting paid 1000’s is as bad as this 6% insanity charged by Agents.

    Talk again with your friends Steve and analyze why they don’t want you to tell the truth “as you perceive it to be.”


  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    Steve is claiming “years” of correct forecasting based on one incident?

    “However, over at the SeattleBubble.com blog, where gloom and doom predictions seem to dominate the reader comments, I was recently named the most accurate prognosticator for local home price trends based on my published predictions over the past couple of years.”

    Proof, I guess, that if one throws enough mud at the wall some of it will stick.

    What would Glen Beck think?


  5. 5
    The Tim says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 4 – Glenn Beck is a big fan of Steve. If you tune in to 770 AM you can hear Glenn personally advertising for Steve’s Best Mortgage on a fairly frequent basis.

  6. 6
    Scotsman says:

    RE: The Tim @ 5

    Yeah, but isn’t Glenn touting Steve’s honesty, integrity, etc? Things that make one say “hmmmm..”

  7. 7
    The_Dude_Abides says:

    I’m questioning Mr. Talton’s article about Horizon Bank where he states that the elite group of banks considered too big to fail received $700B in direct bailout from the Federal Government. If one is to assume by ‘elite group’ he means the initial 9 banks which received TARP monies on Ocober 28, 2008, then the truth is that they received $125B. C and BAC later received $20B each in January 2009.
    As of December 2009, all $165B had been paid back, with dividends and warrants, $145B in cash and $20 in C common equity. The estimated profit for the Treasury from the dividends and warrants is ~ $20B.
    Of the 9, 7 said they didn’t need the TARP at the time of disbursement. Citi & Merrill Lynch were the 2 which needed it. As the final 2 months of 2008 progressed, BAC needed it to swallow the ailing Merrill Lynch and Wells used it to buy Wachovia.

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