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Case-Shiller Tiers: All Three Tiers Turn Negative

Posted on January 27, 2010January 26, 2010 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $270,312
  • Mid Tier: $270,312 – $402,072
  • Hi Tier: > $402,072

The breakpoints for the tiers fell again in November, declining 0.6 to 1.1%.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2009.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low tier fell 0.1% month-to-month, the middle tier fell 0.3%, and the high tier dropped 0.6%. The high tier hit a new post-peak low, while the low and middle tiers both sit slightly higher than where they were earlier in the year.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2009.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

The year-over-year situation improved slightly again in all three tiers. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: -11.1%, Med: -9.5%, Hi: -11.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Bouncing along the government-sponsored floor, but for how long…

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.26.2010)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Hit New Low in Nov.
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January Stats Preview: Mixed Messages Edition

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