Poll: The $8k mortgage buyer tax credit expires in just over a month. I am…

The $8k mortgage buyer tax credit expires in just over a month. I am...

  • ...frantically trying to find a house so I can get my free money. (6%, 10 Votes)
  • ...anxiously awaiting the death of this counter-productive incentive. (62%, 108 Votes)
  • ...ramping up my hard-sell tactics, trying to scare home buyers. (2%, 3 Votes)
  • ...lobbying congress to extend and expand the credit again. (6%, 10 Votes)
  • ...more or less ambivalent about the whole thing. (25%, 43 Votes)

Total Voters: 174

This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 03.27.2010.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    Buyers must have a signed contract by April 30 and close by June 30 to qualify for the current giveaway of at least $10 billion that the nation doesn’t really have. More details on the Zillow blog.

  2. 2
    Jason says:

    I think I speak for everyone when I say that this credit was a bad idea and that our Congress should be removed from office for having approved and extended it.

  3. 3
    David Losh says:

    I’m surprised more people haven’t commented on this vote. Maybe we were all watching Congress today, one way, or the other.

  4. 4
    brady says:

    I would say I am more or less supportive of this measure, but it is time for it to expire. I think it saved jobs and the overall expense wasn’t major because taxpayers would have paid for more in the end due to higher foreclosure rates and higher bank failures. It delayed the inevitable, but in doing that kept more people in their homes and saved some construction jobs and other RE related jobs.

  5. 5
    Rater says:


    Read this. Market is showing signs of strength. I predict be end of this year, expect a solid rebound..

  6. 6
    THom says:


    RCG is predicting prices to be at 2007 levels in 3 years max. Good time to invest..

  7. 7
    The Tim says:

    RE: THom @ 6 – Yeah, Chuck Reiling has a pretty good record with his predictions over there, for sure…

    April 28, 2006: Are We Brewing A Bubble In Seattle?

    The second kind of bubble, let’s call it Type II, seems to occur when there is a limited supply of homes relative to demand, and people start bidding up the prices, i.e. being willing to pay more, in order to get the home they want in the place they want. Jobs and commute times and schools seem to be the big drivers in this. These forces are at work in San Francisco and Los Angeles and San Diego, and they are at work here. In our greater Seattle and east side area, we are blessed with a very strong economy, and continue to enjoy relatively low mortgage interest rates.

    So what should we expect now? First, prices will probably go quite a bit higher. The competition for good houses is intense, and the good economy is feeding good incomes – people are willing to stretch to get the home they want. Second, this ‘bubble’ will probably not burst. Type I speculative bubbles do seem to burst, and they make great news stories. Type II demand-driven bubbles don’t seem to burst, they just seem to pause while the world catches up. Ours doesn’t seem ready to pause yet.

    Well prices did go up another 12% between when he wrote that post and the peak a little over a year later (Case-Shiller), so I guess we can debate whether that counts as “quite a bit higher” or not. But, prices are currently down 14% from where they were when he said that Seattle prices would just “pause while the world catches up.”

    I also love how he lumped San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego in with Seattle as having the same kind of “demand-driven” market that would just “pause.” All three of those California markets have seen prices fall over 36% since he wrote that post.


  8. 8
    patient says:

    RE: The Tim @ 7 – Imo RCG is dead, not because of the new format. That’s just a convinient excuse, the real reason imo is that it lost all credibility just as the PI blog. They whipped the appreciation horse until it died and they still keep whipping the carcass…

  9. 9
    geon says:

    Big whoop….I’d donate it. It still may happen, but I doubt we’ll find a place.

  10. 10
    Scotsman says:

    It may be redundant, but I wanted to cross-post this from the weekend open thread so more folks might see it.

    Economics can seem dry and boring, but this is worth spending the time on to understand. It’s important because it shows two related points- that the economy is very close to imploding, and that everything the government has done so far to try and prevent that implosion has only made things much worse. We will not be able to spend our way out of this recession. And in fact, every dollar we borrow/spend in an attempt to do so will only makes things much worse. As the chart shows, we are now well past the tipping point. It is also proof that the Keynesian theory currently applied in an effort to stimulate the economy has not worked, and in fact has locked in a coming depression. What many had assumed might take several years to occur is happening now and should be clearly evident by the end of this year. Here you go:

    Nate has an updated version of the marginal productivity of debt chart- doesn’t look good. This could also be titled: “Why Your House Won’t Be going Up In Value”


    And here’s the explanation/discussion:


  11. 11
    Scotsman says:

    Whoa- it posted! Tim, you are a genius! Thanks!

  12. 12
    The Tim says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 11 – Wish I could take credit. I didn’t change anything, and I haven’t heard back squat from the Akismet people. Glad it’s working again though.

  13. 13

    Add the Jobs Bill That Was Recently Approved Bi-Partisan in as Waste Too

    A $6500/$8000 tax credit to the wealthiest households in America during a time of horrifyingly low tax receipts makes absolutely no sense.

    Add in the Jobs Bill which could likely cause firing of current employees to replace them with new ones for government welfare to companies and then they don’t have to pay matching 6.2% Social Security until December.

    The bottom line too, will $6500/8000 tax credits get buyers buying in a Seattle area zombie downward bound market, unless they had to buy anyway….same with Jobs Bill, will companies hire when their profits are butcher axed, for measly welfare handouts [compared to paying salaries]; unless they fire first to grab the upper middle class welfare by hiring replacements?

  14. 14
    Tim McB says:

    I’m not sure all the focus on the $8,000 tax credit. I’d say increased mortgage rates more than anything will move this market downward again. I found this article on yahoo to be of interest:


  15. 15
    Chris says:

    How is this any different than lowering our taxes by 8,000 dollars. I like paying less taxes. RE: Jason @ 2

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