Real Estate Heat Index Fell Across Puget Sound in Q1

The latest issue of Sound Housing Quarterly has been published (Q1 2010). Sound Housing Quarterly is a subscription-based sister project to Seattle Bubble.

Here are a couple of highlights from the first quarter issue.

The Real Estate Heat Index (a proprietary index I created that uses supply, demand, and home prices to calculate the general “heat” of the housing market) dropped in Q1 in all eight of the Puget Sound Counties I track. Here’s a look at King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap:

Real Estate Heat Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap

Meanwhile, affordability increased again in all eight counties, thanks to the continued decline in median home prices and still-absurdly-low interest rates.

Affordability Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap

The full version of Sound Housing Quarterly includes detailed data and analysis for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

Head over to to subscribe to Sound Housing Quarterly. You can also download a free single-page summary of this quarter’s report, or drop by the free archive to check out the 2008 Q3 through 2009 Q1 reports in full at no charge.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    Scotsman says:

    I bet Ardell is calling a new bottom as you read this. I’d run over to RCG to check, but my stomach is already upset.

  2. 2
    patient says:

    So that’s how a “running start” to the year looks like.

  3. 3
    LA Relo says:

    More evidence that all government efforts have done is delay the bottom. That and cost our grandchildren billions and billions in taxes.

    This continued decline in home prices is a CORRECTION to the housing market. One of these days they’ll accept that there’s nothing they can do to stop the decline, realize that lower prices are actually good because it gives people more disposable income, and at some point be skeptical at the true signs of a turn around. There you will find your bottom.

  4. 4
  5. 5
    CCG says:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    I bet Ardell is calling a new bottom as you read this. I’d run over to RCG to check, but my stomach is already upset.

    How was Claim Jumper today? :-)

  6. 6
    Ross Jordan says:

    It’s interesting to see that affordability is back to 2001 levels.

  7. 7
    ray pepper says:

    RE: CCG @ 5

    I will be at Claim Jumper tonight for company meeting. I will look for you Scotsman. Let the stomach wrenching begin!

    BTW Tim and Ira LOVE Claim Jumper and last I heard it was their favorite restaurant.

  8. 8

    “BTW Tim and Ira LOVE Claim Jumper and last I heard it was their favorite restaurant.”

    I survived it, and the food always tastes better when someone else is paying for it.
    Still, I’ve got an iron stomach and have eaten the ptomaine and botulism specials at several restaurants with no ill effects.

  9. 9
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 8

    Alas, I am curious (blue?), but still a virgin. One of these days though. . .

  10. 10
    Jonness says:

    I’m continuing to see more high-end foreclosures in the outlying areas popping up. I saw another one today taxed assessed at about $800K and being sold for around $450K . The tax credit is on the verge of expiration, it’s the hottest selling season of the year, and the market is dropping like a rock.

    Since Ardell is always calling a new bottom, I might as well make my own famous bottom call that you can all rely on (theme from the Twilight Zone starts playing in the background). December 21, 2012. I know because it’s written on the Mayan calendar and coincides with the peak of the Alt-a/Option-ARM resets. A big earthquake will be felt throughout the PacNW, and then you will know, it’s time to buy your next home. Save enough between now and then, and you can buy it for cash. :)

  11. 11
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Jonness @ 10

    There is no bottom.
    Foreclosure will continue to rise because people are not stupid.
    People are realizing their futile attempts at Loan Mod are yielding no results and are placing band aides on arterial wounds.
    Short sales will plague us for a decade keeping a LID on appreciation.
    Watch for builders to continue to “strategically” unload their properties by taking 10-20% down and carrying notes.

    Caveats…Our local economy with MSFT, AMZN, FFIV, CSTR, BA,and so many others ON FIRE the PNW remains far better then so many other places. Also, lets not forget Fort Lewis.
    Do not count out many other forms of Fed Stimulus coming to stimulate home ownership.


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