Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release.
Here’s a link to this month’s NWMLS press release (although it still isn’t live yet, it should appear here): Brokers cite tax credit and rising consumer confidence with stabilizing housing activity around Washington state
“While the tax credit has gone away, the buyers haven’t,” observed OB Jacobi, a board member of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Commenting on the MLS summary report for March, Jacobi described the tax incentives, which expired April 30, with being the “lubricant the market needed,” but credits rising consumer confidence with “driving the engine now.”
File that one under “wishful thinking,” considering that the tax credit has been gone for less than a week. Hardly enough time to be making any judgments about what may or may not be “driving the engine now,” whatever that means.
I have to say, I was pretty surprised with how weak the last month of the tax credit was for pending sales, considering all the factors that should have pushed them sky-high. We’ve got the last rush to get $8,000 in free money, still insanely-low interest rates, an economic recovery hype machine in overdrive, and the 2008 re-definition of “pending” to include a broader spectrum of home offers. With all that, we still didn’t even break 3,000:
…and it still remains to be seen whether we will even manage to break 2,000 closed sales this year. In January I would have said it was a sure thing. Now, I’m not so certain.
So, what did the local press have to say about this month’s numbers from the NWMLS? Read on to find out.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Tax credits fuel King County home sales in April
But with the tax credits that juiced the market no longer available, some real-estate observers question whether this spring’s momentum can be maintained.
“We’ve been borrowing demand from future months,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, the Seattle-based real-estate database and marketplace.
Others argue the credits have given the market a lasting boost.
Even without them, low interest rates and lower prices still give buyers a big advantage, Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in a recent blog post.
That Stan Humphries guy is a smart cookie. First he was out there on national TV spreading my “pent-up supply” meme, and now he’s on board with the fact that the tax credit merely borrowed demand from the future. Meanwhile, JLS continues to repeat the same rah-rah stuff we hear from him no matter what condition the market is in.
Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I: Seattle home prices up in April, report says
“I am expecting some slowdown in activity unless employment numbers suddenly improve,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “Interest rate increases may cause some potential buyers to pull the trigger before they go up much more. While the Fed keeps talking about keeping rates low, pressure is certainly mounting for rates to increase.”
It’s funny how the market outlook from Mr. Crellin seems to sound more and more like what you read on these pages with each passing month.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Snohomish County home sales rise 62% in April
Now, the question is whether the sales upswing will continue without the tax incentives.
O.B. Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, said he thinks the credits got people excited about home buying again and that consumer confidence in an improving economy will be “driving the engine now.”
“We saw lots of activity among first-time buyers who knew they were not going to make the deadline for the credit, as well as an upswing in higher-end sales that did not qualify for the credits,” Jacobi said.
That means people will buy for the right price, he said.
Of course, Mr. Jacobi’s idea of “the right price” and the market’s idea of “the right price” may not quite be aligned…
John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales for April are up in Pierce County, state
Whether the flurry of buying activity represents a new reality or a passing phenomenon, it was impressive, new sales figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show.
In Pierce County last month, for instance, pending sales were up 25.12 percent. In King County to the north, pending sales jumped nearly 46 percent over April 2009. Thurston County pending sales rose by almost 33 percent, while Snohomish County pending sales were 37.62 percent greater than in April last year.
I see. So the level of home sales is impressive if you: A) use a statistic that has been rendered meaningless, and B) compare only to last year—by far the worst year on record. Got it.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: County housing numbers improve
The Thurston County housing market had another strong showing last month, with home sales in April rising more than 30 percent over the same period a year ago, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
Although federal tax incentive programs have helped the local and statewide housing markets, South Sound real estate professionals said Wednesday that lower median prices are driving the sales pace.
This concept is still so confusing to me. You’re telling me that when the price of something is lower, more people are willing to buy that thing? So crazy!
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 05.05.2010)
(Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I, 05.05.2010)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 05.06.2010)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.06.2010)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.06.2010)