Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2010-07-24

  • local real estate related (sortof) via @SeattleTimes – Rossi's assets, income built on real estate http://is.gd/dwlma #
  • via @SeattleTimes – "Bankrupt real-estate magnate Michael R. Mastro still living large" http://is.gd/dwylj (I smell a rat.) #
  • Another local real estate "fiasco" – Seattle-based Meridian Group http://is.gd/dwyqV #
  • Close your account at JPMorgan Chase Bank, get a free steak dinner. http://is.gd/dxebg #
  • Programming note: I have updated the woefully neglected About page. http://is.gd/dybEg #
  • I love it when a listing agent just completely makes junk up for the home description. #
  • WaMu failure orphans nearly $10M in deposits: http://is.gd/dzWJT #
  • Stalling sales at Seattle-based Dunn lumber seen as a portent for a second big leg down in housing. http://is.gd/dAiij #
  • Uh-oh… this doesn't sound good… Cascade Financial slapped with FDIC order; two directors quit http://is.gd/dBrL1 #
  • Yeowch! via @Urbnlivn, Capitol Hill townhome on the market nearly 10% below 2001 pricing. http://is.gd/dBEzd #
  • Sweet, my "Real Actual Listing Photos" post got linked on the WSJ RE blog. http://is.gd/dCqSx #

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

16 comments:

  1. 1
    Scotsman says:

    A reminder of why housing starts are/have been an important part of the economy and are needed for recovery efforts (from the WSJ link):

    “With the housing market’s collapse, home construction now accounts for 2.4% of gross domestic product, down from a peak of 6.2% in the first quarter of 2006. Since the recession began at the end of 2007, 1.9 million residential and commercial construction jobs have been lost, with additional losses at real-estate offices, mortgage processors and the like.

    Construction also feeds into manufacturing—some 10% of U.S. manufacturing orders are for construction materials and supplies like paint and shingles. An additional 2% of manufacturing orders are for household appliances and furniture.”

  2. 2
    softwarengineer says:

    Voting Out Tax and Spend Incumbents

    I know the replacements will be big question marks too, but, IMO, voting out the incumbents will make them a lot less likely prone to totally ignore the populist polls next term. After all, if they do, they’re voted out next term too.

  3. 3
    David Losh says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 1

    New construction is only warrantied for a year. After five years all new construction needs some type of repair. Appliances are a constant, they need to be replaced.

    The problem is we over built globally, so there is a glut of household items, appliances, and durable goods.

    Housing starts are another good example of why past historical data is a poor indication of the economy. We can keep building empty housing units, like they do in China, to make the economy look better, with a better GDP, or we can move on.

    So, construction jobs will be changed, durable goods can continue at an elevated level, and new jobs will be created in maintaining the 17 million empty housing units in the United States.

  4. 4
    David Losh says:

    Actually I was concerned about a phrase in the About Page of the Seattle Bubble:

    “If you find a home that you love, at a price that you’re comfortable paying (i.e. – you wouldn’t be upset if the price dropped another 10-20%), and you plan to live there for a long time, then go for it. If you are looking at a home as a place to invest your money, then you should probably reconsider.”

    This is the difference in what I bring to the table of a residential Real Estate purchase. Your home is the biggest financial investment you will make. You can talk with every financial planner, and they will tell you that owning the family home, free, and clear is the most important step you can take to financial security.

    I’m not a warm and fuzzy sales person. In my opinion if you want to be in sales you should find a product, like cars, or cloths, or appliances. Real Estate is an investment in your future. Whether you are buying the family home, or a sky scraper in Dallas, you need a negotiator. You need some one who can predict the market, follow the investment track, and get you the best deal for your circumstances.

    Many people over my twenty five years have been disappointed that I think the home they chose is a piece of poop. Hundreds, literally hundreds, have been disappointed when I have told them to wait. I tell people to pay off the truck first, buy smaller, and trade up, or you shouldn’t be a home owner. Some people are just better renters than owners.

    Jim Stacy was, by far, one of the Real Estate people who got it right in counseling home buyers. He educated about locations, wiring, construction, plumbing, lay out, and what you can afford, because it’s an over all package.

    I’m just saying that Real Estate is a business, and a business plan. You need to have a plan, and it is helpful to involve people who know the business.

  5. 5
    Dirty_Renter says:

    I feel badly for the people who invested w/ that Mastro guy and the Meridian group. I can understand why people feel more comfortable with local folks. One thing good you can say about this crisis…it made it affordable to invest along side B Gross, M Linn, J Walker et al.
    Ira, Mr. Kinder was on Mad Money last week…he’s the real deal.

  6. 6
    Dirty_Renter says:

    D*mn it, I forgot to say congratulations to Tim for the SB mention on the WSJ blog. I must admit, the listing thread is a hoot.

  7. 7
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    A reminder of why housing starts are/have been an important part of the economy and are needed for recovery efforts (from the WSJ link)

    and yet manufacturing expanded for the 11th consecutive month. no recovery though, right? the economy grew for the 14th consecutive month, but there is no recovery right?

    ISM Mfg index shows slower expansion in June, Pending Home sales collapse
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/ism-mfg-index-shows-slower-expansion-in.html

  8. 8
    anonimaniac says:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    A reminder of why housing starts are/have been an important part of the economy and are needed for recovery efforts (from the WSJ link)

    and yet manufacturing expanded for the 11th consecutive month. no recovery though, right? the economy grew for the 14th consecutive month, but there is no recovery right?

    ISM Mfg index shows slower expansion in June, Pending Home sales collapse
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/ism-mfg-index-shows-slower-expansion-in.html

    Government stats are suspect to say the least. Don’t they consider fast food preparation “manufacturing” now? You make a hamburger/sandwich you are manufacturing a product. Bogus.

  9. 9
    pfft says:

    By anonimaniac @ 8:

    By pfft @ 7:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    A reminder of why housing starts are/have been an important part of the economy and are needed for recovery efforts (from the WSJ link)

    and yet manufacturing expanded for the 11th consecutive month. no recovery though, right? the economy grew for the 14th consecutive month, but there is no recovery right?

    ISM Mfg index shows slower expansion in June, Pending Home sales collapse
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/ism-mfg-index-shows-slower-expansion-in.html

    Government stats are suspect to say the least. Don’t they consider fast food preparation “manufacturing” now? You make a hamburger/sandwich you are manufacturing a product. Bogus.

    I’ve got much more data than that. I think we can say that fast food preparation doesn’t irreparably harm the data so that we can’t believe it anymore.

    government stats showed the downturn so why wouldn’t they show the upturn?

    EDIT:

    wouldn’t that just shift the data from manufacturing to non-manufacturing? that’s been expanding for probably just as long.

  10. 10
    anonimaniac says:

    pfft, you are playing with semantics and numbers.

    Consider this: for years our economy has been 70% consumer driven. Consumers have gone into hibernation (state tax receipts still down across the country) and yet our economy expands?! Bogus data driven by massive paper fraud. And how can a large sector of the economy like construction and all the related activity plummet, as stated by Scotsman above, yet our economy is growing again. Don’t believe the hype. This economy and housing market, esp. Seattle, is headed for big trouble.

  11. 11
    Scotsman says:

    RE: pfft @ 7

    You’re too funny! Did you read the links in the article you posted? Nearly every category in the actual report is down, some by as much as 20%. Sure, it’s still positive, but the brakes have been slammed on hard. The next few months could easily go negative. This is not a sustainable recovery by any stretch of the imagination. You also need to stop cherry-picking little data points here and there and try to grasp the inter-related aspects of how the economy works as well as some perspective on the whole. The short flight of a dead cat bounce is not the same as a “recovery.”

    Have something cool to drink, then try again.

  12. 12
    pfft says:

    By anonimaniac @ 10:

    pfft, you are playing with semantics and numbers.

    Consider this: for years our economy has been 70% consumer driven. Consumers have gone into hibernation (state tax receipts still down across the country) and yet our economy expands?!

    consumers are not in hibernation. consumer spending has been up.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/personal-income-up-04-spending.html

  13. 13
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 11:

    RE: pfft @ 7

    You’re too funny! Did you read the links in the article you posted? Nearly every category in the actual report is down, some by as much as 20%. Sure, it’s still positive, but the brakes have been slammed on hard. The next few months could easily go negative. This is not a sustainable recovery by any stretch of the imagination. You also need to stop cherry-picking little data points here and there and try to grasp the inter-related aspects of how the economy works as well as some perspective on the whole. The short flight of a dead cat bounce is not the same as a “recovery.”

    Have something cool to drink, then try again.

    here is a hint. since you say the numbers are down, you have to admit they were up and therefore the economy has been recovering! gotcha.

    yes the numbers are down hence I’ve been saying for a couple weeks that the data has indicated a slowing economy.

  14. 14
    Scotsman says:

    RE: pfft @ 13

    “Slowing economy”?

    “Another big leg down into the recognition that i) the recession was really a depression all along and ii) we are smack back in it. The ISM Manufacturing index came at 56.2 on expectations of 59, previous was 59.7. And the stunner – the prices paid index came in at 57 on expectations of 70, with a previous read of 77.5. The crash in margins will be surreal and companies will have no choice but to raise prices. And just so there are no mistakes that the Great Depression 2.0 is here, pending homes sales plunged a massive 30% on expectations of -14.2, and a previous read of 6%. This was the biggest MoM drop on record. Deflation is here, as is a full blown economic contraction, coupled with the complete pull out of the US consumer. . .”

    “slowing economy”? That’s a big Uh Huh! Put down the HAPPI-ZAN and listen to the big data picture.

    http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/api.php?action=viewNews&aid=774406&page=Index%3AISM_Manufacturing_Index&wire=1&format=html&comments=0

  15. 15
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 14:

    RE: pfft @ 13

    “Slowing economy”?

    “Another big leg down into the recognition that i) the recession was really a depression all along and ii) we are smack back in it. The ISM Manufacturing index came at 56.2 on expectations of 59, previous was 59.7. And the stunner – the prices paid index came in at 57 on expectations of 70, with a previous read of 77.5. The crash in margins will be surreal and companies will have no choice but to raise prices. And just so there are no mistakes that the Great Depression 2.0 is here, pending homes sales plunged a massive 30% on expectations of -14.2, and a previous read of 6%. This was the biggest MoM drop on record. Deflation is here, as is a full blown economic contraction, coupled with the complete pull out of the US consumer. . .”

    “slowing economy”? That’s a big Uh Huh! Put down the HAPPI-ZAN and listen to the big data picture.

    http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/api.php?action=viewNews&aid=774406&page=Index%3AISM_Manufacturing_Index&wire=1&format=html&comments=0

    those numbers can bounce around and even go negative after we are out of a recession. pending homes sales plunged because of the government.

  16. 16

    I love that “free steak dinner” when you close your account from Chase… I totally missed that story!

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