There’s a Reason They’re Called “Moody”

A few readers were questioning why I didn’t write up a full post last month on Moody’s forecast that U.S. home prices will rise 7.2% between today and 2014, with prices in Seattle rising 26% and Bremerton shooting up a whopping 45%.

Here’s a brief excerpt from the August 3rd Bloomberg article about the forecast:

At some point, everything stops falling. Sometimes things hit bottom with a bone-crunching thud and just lie there in a heap. Sometimes they bounce back up at least part of the way. The U.S. housing market is in the latter camp.

…the forecast in numerous regions across the country is for a healthy recovery by 2014.

While four years may seem too distant to offer many U.S. homeowners much reassurance, the outlook could be worse. Taking into consideration such factors as employment, foreclosure rates, income growth, demographic trends, and construction costs, Moody’s Economy.com and Brookfield (Wisc.)-based financial services industry information firm Fiserv (FISV) estimate that by 2014, U.S. home prices will be 7.2 percent above 2010 levels, with the strongest growth in the Pacific Northwest.

Now here’s an excerpt from an article Bloomberg ran two days ago on September 15th about another Moody’s forecast:

The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.

Shadow inventory — the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale — is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc.

And that is why I pretty much completely ignore any “forecasts” from Moody’s these days. Which one is it, are home prices going to rise an average of seven percent in four years, or are they going to continue to slide for another three years?

If you’re looking to read the random output of a drunken monkey making out with an iPad, feel free to indulge in Moody’s “forecasts,” but if you’re hoping to find any actual insights into the market, I suggest you look elsewhere.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

77 comments:

  1. 1
    anonimaniac says:

    Moodys is wrong a lot and they were dishonest in ratings recently.

  2. 2

    Everyone Votes Their Pocketbook to Some Degree, Even SWE

    But when this tendency goes overboard into wild allegations that “pigs can fly” to support their wishes, that’s when I would cry foul, even against my politics.

    Good Take exposure Tim :-)

  3. 3
    GH says:

    Both Moody articles say the same thing: that home prices will be depressed for another 3 years, and then go up.

    This is consistent with what other analysts have been saying: Over the next few years, the bad mortgage loans should be worked out of the system, and jobs will (eventually) come back.

    My biggest concern is an external shock, such as a collapse of the Chinese bubble economy.

  4. 4
    biodieselchris says:

    some good numbers on mortgage math this community may think is worth a read:

    How to save $100k on a 200k mortgage:

    http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/02/13/interest-scams-and-how-to-avoid-them-mortgage-madness/

    scroll down a bit past the credit stuff if you don’t feel like reading

  5. 5
    NumberMonkey says:

    RE: GH @ 3
    Oh good, the analysts all agree. Reality is sure to follow!

    Where have I heard that before?

  6. 6
    biodieselchris says:

    also, some graphs (UK, Australia, US, and Canada 50-year home price curves):

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/UUAC-Home-Price-Family-Income-Ratio.png

  7. 7
    Cheap South says:

    Bremerton up 45%?? Wow, the navy better plan for a huge pay raise to those sailors.

  8. 8
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Cheap South @ 7

    Anyone calling for Anywhere to be up 45% with the unyielding amounts of short sales that will continue for years I would greatly discount.

    The foreclosures are not the problem. Those are a given.

    How many people will continue to walk/live for free while forcing their home into foreclosure this coming decade? Answer this question and you will see how this picture plays out.

  9. 9
    Ben says:

    Tim, I got a good chuckle out of that.

    It’s just another data point to show that the blogging community is where the real analysis is generated these days.

  10. 10
    HappyRenter says:

    What puzzles me is how exactly do they come up with those numbers? Like in 4 years prices will be up 7.2% or prices will slide for another 3 years. What sources do they use? What statistics and models are their predictions based upon?

  11. 11
    pfft says:

    home prices are already up so they are already wrong on the present…

  12. 12
    HappyRenter says:

    By pfft @ 11:

    home prices are already up …

    And that’s a vague statement anyway.

  13. 13
    Ross Jordan says:

    By NumberMonkey @ 5:

    RE: GH @ 3
    Oh good, the analysts all agree. Reality is sure to follow!

    Where have I heard that before?

    In fact there’s evidence that when analysts ALL agree, they are almost certainly wrong. An interesting study showed that when ~75% of analysts agree, they are usually right, when 50% agree its a tossup anyways, but when ~100% agree they are almost always wrong.

  14. 14
    pfft says:

    By HappyRenter @ 12:

    By pfft @ 11:

    home prices are already up …

    And that’s a vague statement anyway.

    nationally they are up comp 10 and comp 20. in seattle they are up too.

  15. 15
    pfft says:

    By Ross Jordan @ 13:

    By NumberMonkey @ 5:

    RE: GH @ 3
    Oh good, the analysts all agree. Reality is sure to follow!

    Where have I heard that before?

    In fact there’s evidence that when analysts ALL agree, they are almost certainly wrong. An interesting study showed that when ~75% of analysts agree, they are usually right, when 50% agree its a tossup anyways, but when ~100% agree they are almost always wrong.

    that’s the same way I feel when politicians agree.

  16. 16
    hoary says:

    My two pence is that you have no way to gather accurate data on supply. Demand will return with employment, but if we are overbuilt and the shadow inventory is enormous, it could be a decade before buying/building single family homes makes economic sense.

    I would not want to model home prices because the unknowables, like shadow inventory, are so vast. Nevermind having to predict when unemployment will get back to 5%. Better off using a magic eight-ball then Moody’s economic model >.>

  17. 17
    Ben says:

    RE: pfft @ 14

    CS is lagging data and Corelogic more current. Calculated Risk addresses the subject very well. It is well documented that the current situation has deteriorated considerably since the tax credits expired.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/corelogic-house-prices-decline-06-in.html

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/on-case-shiller-house-prices-october-is.html

  18. 18
    Tim says:

    I think the whole CDO debacle makes it legitimate to question the competency of these agencies. There is a saying that people who can’t get a real job on Wall St. end up working for the ratings agencies.

  19. 19
    Dirty_Renter says:

    RE: Tim @ 18
    You just nailed it.
    Moody’s, S&P and Fitch were the designated drivers of the credit crisis but gave the stumbling, Otis Campbell-type drunk I/Bers the keys to their 427 Cobras.
    There is no one more responsible for this financial crisis than these jokers.

  20. 20
    pfft says:

    By Ben @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 14

    CS is lagging data and Corelogic more current. Calculated Risk addresses the subject very well. It is well documented that the current situation has deteriorated considerably since the tax credits expired.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/corelogic-house-prices-decline-06-in.html

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/on-case-shiller-house-prices-october-is.html

    still shows home prices have bottomed.

  21. 21
    Ben says:

    RE: pfft @ 20

    I figured YOU would see it that way. Everyone else sees the decline as resuming after the expiration of the tax credits.

  22. 22
  23. 23
    HappyRenter says:

    By pfft @ 20 –

    still shows home prices have bottomed.

    The increase in the median price after June is due to the fact that much less homes in the low end of the market have been sold. So, the median price has shifted upwards but it doesn’t mean that prices have bottomed. That’s why I said that the statement that prices have increased is vague, because it strongly depends how you are interpreting the data. Prices will have bottomed after the actual value of a home starts increasing and not the median. Homes in the same category are not selling at a higher price.

    I read SeattleBubble in order to understand what is going on based on data analysis and not on chitchat. But you can view it as you want.

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    By HappyRenter @ 23:

    By pfft @ 20 –

    still shows home prices have bottomed.

    The increase in the median price after June is due to the fact that much less homes in the low end of the market have been sold. So, the median price has shifted upwards but it doesn’t mean that prices have bottomed. That’s why I said that the statement that prices have increased is vague, because it strongly depends how you are interpreting the data. Prices will have bottomed after the actual value of a home starts increasing and not the median. Homes in the same category are not selling at a higher price.

    I read SeattleBubble in order to understand what is going on based on data analysis and not on chitchat. But you can view it as you want.

    regardless about medians or whatever it looks like home prices have bottomed.

    the market’s YOY price drops bottomed a long time ago and have been trending towards positive YOY numbers for months and months. this is almost the mirror image of how home prices stalled. this time it looks like price depreciation is stalling.

  25. 25
  26. 26
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: pfft @ 24
    You can argue that this was artificially created by the tax credit.

  27. 27
    HR Puffinstuf says:

    from what I’ve seen & heard in the last week or so, all the negative press is having an effect. Lots of new price reductions in asking prices. I can feel the seller fears rising. I would bet heavy that case shiller and corelogic data will show the drop off soon….

  28. 28
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: pfft @ 25
    But anyway home prices are not already up as you were stating earlier in 11.

  29. 29
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    This is really unfair to Moodys. They aren’t the only forecast that should be ignored, they all should be ignored! ;-)

  30. 30
    David Losh says:

    RE: HappyRenter @ 23

    Chit chat is what it’s all about.

    If you look at a straight line of appreciation in housing prices from 1999 to today, the decline indicates we are right on track. That’s where the confusion comes in from the data. The data is showing the Bubble, the decline, and everything should go back to normal, and prices can start appreciating from here.

    The problem is the graph of inflation. It doesn’t match the massive appreciation in property pricing. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation/AnnualInflation.asp

    Then you compare that to the Consumer Price Index and there is a further disconnect between what people paid for housing in relation to the more moderate price of Consumer goods. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CU_cpibrief

    Next you can argue about interest rates, and Fed policy, but all indications are that we are still way over priced for housing.

    A more clear indication for me is the price of bread http://www.post1.net/lowem/entry/bread_and_inflation
    This chart shows that until the lift off of 2006 inflation was moderate.

    What all of this means is that the price of housing can go down, way down, without interfering with the cost of living, but only improving it. The people holding property may not want that, so they may want to inflate at this point. The problem is that inflation is a broad set of goods, you can’t just inflate housing without drastically lowering interest rates. We did that, Japan did that. That flooded the markets with cheap money to lend, but now we have to pay back the money that was borrowed.

    Without property price appreciation, we have hit a ceiling. It’s time for the next thing. We need another cheap, and easy, way to make money.

    I’m thinking energy.

  31. 31
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29

    You know I disagree with that, but do think people ignore what they chose to.

  32. 32
    anonimaniac says:

    pfft, you made an economic bet and it isn’t working out like the hype promised. We all have done that except you bet on property, the biggest ticket item. You can recoup your cash but you just have to wait a couple of decades. No harm in that. People used to buy houses and live in them for a long time. Things are going back to normal. That is all.

  33. 33
    pfft says:

    By HappyRenter @ 26:

    RE: pfft @ 24
    You can argue that this was artificially created by the tax credit.

    I don’t remember when the credits went through but prices appeared to have bottomed in jan of 2009.

  34. 34
    pfft says:

    By HappyRenter @ 28:

    RE: pfft @ 25
    But anyway home prices are not already up as you were stating earlier in 11.

    yes they are look at the calculatedrisk links up.

  35. 35
    Jonness says:

    By pfft @ 11:

    home prices are already up so they are already wrong on the present…

    Are you a RE agent or a bubble house buyer? If neither, what is your motivation for attempting to deceive people on this board to believe now is a good time to buy?

  36. 36
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 34

    Hmmm, you should look at the links. They don’t show an up, they show a stall.

  37. 37
    Cambridge says:

    I wonder how astrology or tea leaves compare with these rating companies predictions. I enjoyed your articulation on their output.

  38. 38
    Cheap South says:

    By anonimaniac @ 32:

    …. People used to buy houses and live in them for a long time. Things are going back to normal. That is all.

    Well, people were able to keep a job for 30 years in the same factory too; but that’s gone. I hope normal is people purchasing homes counting on a single income. That will force prices to come down to where they should be. With a job market that has been volatile for over a decade and will continue to be for as long as anyone can see, it is highly risky to pay the multipliers people are paying today in Seattle.

  39. 39
    TJ_98370 says:

    I like the drunken monkey reference, too funny!
    .
    As an actual resident of Kitsap, I think I may have some unique perspective. The U.S. Navy does provide some economic stability, but the fact is that the three major bases located in Kitsap have been down-sizing since the end of the cold war and the trend is expected to continue. Local DoD employment is nothing like it was in the late 80’s early 90’s. However, I can see where Bremerton may become attractive to King County commuters. Real estate remains relatively inexpensive compared to King County.
    .
    I live in Central Kitsap and real estate sales remain slow, unless there is what is perceived to be a screaming deal. Two of the most recent sales in my nieghborhood are of the following:
    .
    3600 sq ft high bank water front house that sold for $620K Mar 2006, sold for $540K in June 2010.
    3100 sq ft high bank waterfront house that sold for $660K Sept 2007, sold for $412K in Aug 2010

  40. 40
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: Cheap South @ 37

    Yes, the one income versus two income is a big factor in price run ups the past couple of decades (thought the credit bubble was the biggest). See Elizabeth Warren’s work, The Two Income Trap. In short, it states that the extra income from a second worker in the family helped drive up prices, and not just houses, but necessities got so expensive that even with two incomes people never got ahead. The populace is starting to, finally, figure this out. Two middle class incomes don’t cut it anymore if you want a decent house and lifestyle. Prices will fall. Less income due to job loss, cutbacks, decrease in real earnings since the mid-seventies (masked by easy credit, till now). The new normal will be affordable housing.

  41. 41
    pfft says:

    By Jonness @ 35:

    By pfft @ 11:

    home prices are already up so they are already wrong on the present…

    Are you a RE agent or a bubble house buyer? If neither, what is your motivation for attempting to deceive people on this board to believe now is a good time to buy?

    I am just stated what prices have done. prices have been rising. that’s a fact. look at the chart.

    I didn’t say it was a good time to buy, I just stated facts. housing is up 7% nationally.

  42. 42
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 36:

    RE: pfft @ 34

    Hmmm, you should look at the links. They don’t show an up, they show a stall.

    home prices are up 7% from the bottom.

  43. 43
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: pfft @ 42

    A small deviation from the trend, courtesy of massive tax dollar intervention. Prices are about to resume their downward spiral and this time in a more dramatic fashion. You should sell now.

  44. 44
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 42

    I don’t see a bottom, and you haven’t addressed my links showing an over priced housing market. 1999 pricing may be a bottom, but I’m beginning to doubt that.

  45. 45
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 44:

    RE: pfft @ 42

    I don’t see a bottom, and you haven’t addressed my links showing an over priced housing market. 1999 pricing may be a bottom, but I’m beginning to doubt that.

    market is up 7% from the bottom.

    comp 10 from ritholtz

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/caseshiller0913101_big.gif

  46. 46
    pfft says:

    By anonimaniac @ 43:

    RE: pfft @ 42Prices are about to resume their downward spiral and this time in a more dramatic fashion.

    you mean even worse than before? why? there isn’t a reason. there is no double dip. double dip talk started in may with the euro crisis. it’s not shown up in the data since then.

  47. 47
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: David Losh @ 44

    1999, no. I am starting to agree with Sniglet’s prediction of 1997 prices and up to 80% off peak prices (has happened already in other places once thought to be immune).

  48. 48
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: pfft @ 46

    I do agree with you for once: there is no double dip. But the reason is because there was never a recovery, just a papering over with printed/borrowed federal money and playing loosely with the statistics. Still in a recession and will be for a while, if we are lucky.

  49. 49
    pfft says:

    By anonimaniac @ 48:

    RE: pfft @ 46

    I do agree with you for once: there is no double dip. But the reason is because there was never a recovery, just a papering over with printed/borrowed federal money and playing loosely with the statistics. Still in a recession and will be for a while, if we are lucky.

    we’ve actually gained back 79% of the GDP loss.

  50. 50
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 45

    Look at the graph, it goes back to 2000. That spike is from 2000. Now look at the thirty year trend.

    Actually, forget that, where do you see a bottom? That’s absolutely ridiculous, by any stretch of reasoning.

    Probably the biggest flaw in the logic is the Case Schiller Index. It is based on sales data. Using that very same twisted logic, all prices in the past five years would indicate a true, and correct, value of property.

  51. 51
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 50:

    RE: pfft @ 45
    Actually, forget that, where do you see a bottom? That’s absolutely ridiculous, by any stretch of reasoning.

    on 4/30/09 I see a bottom. what do you see?

  52. 52
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 51

    A stall, the same as any selling season. People have to buy and sell to put kids into schools. You can do lateral moves that don’t reflect a market place, only the need to relocate. You can also add the buyer rebate to that to make it extra special, but it’s just lateral.

  53. 53
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 52:

    RE: pfft @ 51

    A stall, the same as any selling season. People have to buy and sell to put kids into schools. You can do lateral moves that don’t reflect a market place, only the need to relocate. You can also add the buyer rebate to that to make it extra special, but it’s just lateral.

    by lateral you mean up 7%, correct?

  54. 54
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 53

    A per cent means nothing to a 20 area market place. We have talked extensively about the rise in median prices. 7% seems very low given the fact the low end sold off first after the crash, or that most people trade up.

  55. 55
    David Losh says:

    Now I’m just going to go off on a tangent about using pricing to base a Real Estate purchase.

    The price, or even the asking price, doesn’t mean anything. You have buyers, and sellers, of one unique property. Even new construction has it’s unique quirks, but that market place is much more homogeneous. You only buy New Construction with the idea you are stuck with it, and need to pay it off. Those people who traded up in a new construction market place are a complete apparition that means nothing. You buy new, it goes down in value, until it hits a base price.

    Now some properties have an intangible value. It could be the lot, or the construction, view, placement, or even an address.

    The only fact is that a seller will make any deal they choose to make, and a buyer will pay whatever they choose, or what the bank chooses. We will be moving away from banks as time goes on because banks won’t take the risk. Now what will that do to the price of property?

  56. 56
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: pfft @ 49

    What does that mean? You are pulling numbers out of the air.

  57. 57
    anonimaniac says:

    RE: pfft @ 49

    What does that mean? You are pulling numbers out of the air. Did we ever lose so much GDP? Then we are in a depression.

  58. 58
    Ben says:

    RE: anonimaniac @ 57

    He loves to yank your chain. If you say the sky is blue, he will say it is green. It is obvious to anyone without bias that housing has started another leg down since the tax credits ended.

  59. 59
    Ben says:

    RE: pfft @ 51

    http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/seattle-washington/

    No one sees anything special about April ’09. The median asking price tracked as $357,713. August ’10 tracks as $315,790. Sorry man – deal with it.

  60. 60
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    As noted by I think Dave, list price doesn’t mean much, especially when you had over 10% of listings being short sales. Even on the sold stats they affect the median significantly, but their percentage of actives is much higher.

  61. 61
    Ben says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 60

    It is the most current data tracked ,howerver. The trend is firmly established as down.

    Corelogic is less lagged than CS and still shows down. I think pfft’s point of looking in the CS rear view mirror and saying “look, we’ve bottomed” is disingenuous. CS will start showing the after effects of the tax credit soon enough and this whole argument will be moot.

  62. 62
    Ben says:

    RE: Ben @ 61

    I might add that the only realistic scenario for starting a sustainable new trend in increasing home prices would be lots of job and income growth. I don’t think anyone credible is forecasting that happening anytime soon. What else does that leave? Hyperinflation? A return to 2005 lending practices?

    I’d like to have a serious reply why Seattle home prices aren’t going to fall for years to come.

  63. 63
    The Tim says:

    By pfft @ 20:

    still shows home prices have bottomed.

    Just like the data in December 2001 showed that home prices had peaked.

    The point is that you aren’t looking at the big picture.

  64. 64
    pfft says:

    By anonimaniac @ 56:

    RE: pfft @ 49

    What does that mean? You are pulling numbers out of the air.

    you are right I might 69% of our gdp loss has been gained back.

  65. 65
    pfft says:

    By Ben @ 58:

    RE: anonimaniac @ 57

    He loves to yank your chain. If you say the sky is blue, he will say it is green. It is obvious to anyone without bias that housing has started another leg down since the tax credits ended.

    no it isn’t. it’s obvious that housing has dipped a bit, it’s not a foregone conclusion that it’s beginning another leg down.

    doesn’t anyone remember when you guys said car sales had only recovered because of CFC and you were wrong while I was right?

  66. 66
    pfft says:

    By The Tim @ 63:

    By pfft @ 20:

    still shows home prices have bottomed.

    Just like the data in December 2001 showed that home prices had peaked.

    The point is that you aren’t looking at the big picture.

    the only picture that matters is price. the price says so far housing has bottomed. it bottomed in the spring of 2009 when nobody was paying attention. everyone was too busy bashing the stock market rally and wondering which bank would fail next.

  67. 67
    pfft says:

    By Ben @ 61:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 60

    It is the most current data tracked ,howerver. The trend is firmly established as down.

    Corelogic is less lagged than CS and still shows down. I think pfft’s point of looking in the CS rear view mirror and saying “look, we’ve bottomed” is disingenuous. CS will start showing the after effects of the tax credit soon enough and this whole argument will be moot.

    corelogic shows a bottom too. what are you talking about?

  68. 68
    Ben says:

    RE: pfft @ 67

    http://www.everythingisdesign.com/wp-content/uploads/inconceivable.jpg

    Your sky is green attitude only leads me back to my post 22 on this thread, harkening back to a classic line from The Princess Bride:

    “Bottom” You keep using that word…….

  69. 69
    EconE says:

    RE: pfft @ 45RE: pfft @ 46RE: pfft @ 49RE: pfft @ 42RE: pfft @ 41RE: pfft @ 41RE: pfft @ 33RE: pfft @ 34RE: pfft @ 53RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 65RE: pfft @ 64RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 67RE: pfft @ 20RE: pfft @ 14RE: pfft @ 11

    Yawn. Gets old. Like an annoying child.

  70. 70
    pfft says:

    By EconE @ 69:

    RE: pfft @ 45RE: pfft @ 46RE: pfft @ 49RE: pfft @ 42RE: pfft @ 41RE: pfft @ 41RE: pfft @ 33RE: pfft @ 34RE: pfft @ 53RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 65RE: pfft @ 64RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 66RE: pfft @ 67RE: pfft @ 20RE: pfft @ 14RE: pfft @ 11

    Yawn. Gets old. Like an annoying child.

    I can’t help it if bears don’t like the truth. those are the numbers and there ain’t nothing I can do about them.

    housing prices have bottomed well over 16 months ago and people act like they are still going down 15% YOY.

  71. 71
    pfft says:

    By Ben @ 68:

    RE: pfft @ 67

    http://www.everythingisdesign.com/wp-content/uploads/inconceivable.jpg

    Your sky is green attitude only leads me back to my post 22 on this thread, harkening back to a classic line from The Princess Bride:

    “Bottom” You keep using that word…….

    you have a dizzying intellect.

  72. 72
    EconE says:

    RE: pfft @ 70

    Perhaps I was too subtle.

    You have 21 of the 72 comments for this thread.

    You don’t “discuss” or “converse”. You bleat.

  73. 73
    Ben says:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Why thank you

    I chuckle every time you post, so I wanted to share that with Tim’s readers. I realized your posts are put ons and was trying just to keep up.

  74. 74
    pfft says:

    By Ben @ 73:

    RE: pfft @ 71

    Why thank you

    I chuckle every time you post, so I wanted to share that with Tim’s readers. I realized your posts are put ons and was trying just to keep up.

    actually for every single stat I said I have a source.

    corelogic prices:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/summary-for-week-ending-sept-18th.html

    the US has retraced 69% of GDP lost in the recession. it’s in the graphics on the left:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/18/business/18charts.html?scp=1&sq=in%20great%20recession%20other%20nations%20suffered%20more&st=cse

    case-shiller data is here.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/caseshiller0913101_big.gif

    I am not messing around, those are just facts.

  75. 75
    David Losh says:

    OK, I’ll play along.

    Cash for Clunker did for car sales what the Buyers Tax Credit did for residential Real Estate. There is a lot of feel good out there.

    The problem is the global economy, and the fate of the global economy. What the United States does at this point means very little to what is happening in China, or India, or Germany, or Spain. There needs to be sustainability, much more than parlor tricks.

  76. 76
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 75:

    What the United States does at this point means very little to what is happening in China, or India, or Germany, or Spain. There needs to be sustainability, much more than parlor tricks.

    china and germany produce goods that america buys. germany, a major world exporter, needs a strong US consumer. both india and spain need a good world economy and that includes a healthy US, a major player in the US economy.

  77. 77
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 76

    OK, now I see it. I agree we are no longer in a free fall. There are adjustments, and the economies of the world are finding a footing.

    This is however a Bubble Blog so what I see is the same things going on now as what has happened twice before. First was the technology bubble, then the Real Estate bubble.

    The underlying cause of the Real Estate bubble was credit. Debt was repackaged, and sold as security for stocks, and bonds. All of this good news you are pointing to doesn’t show a correction in the credit market place.

    Republicans are still talking like they can fix things. The Tea Party is all for throwing the bums out. Any time, any one suggests actually taking some positive steps to reduce, shore up, or pay off the debt crisis, there is a negative reaction in the markets.

    So while you feel you are showing the good news, you just keep putting up what is surely a path back to status quo, or an indication of a more sever correction of the markets.

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