Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Shows the Only Gains in July

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $264,388 (up 0.4%)
  • Mid Tier: $264,388 – $404,854
  • Hi Tier: > $404,854 (up 0.5%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2010.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Immediately upon the expiration of the tax credit, the low tier fell month-to-month. The high tier was actually the only tier to show a gain in July. The low tier dropped 0.6% MOM, the middle tier fell 0.2%, and the high tier rose 0.4%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2010.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

The low tier fell further YOY than it did in June, the middle tier was more or less flat, and the high tier marked another slight improvement, but still sits below zero. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: -2.9%, Med: -3.3%, Hi: -0.5%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted this morning, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

After gaining back some of its lost ground over the previous three months, the low tier dropped back down to 27% off peak in July.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.28.2010)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.