Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $262,889 (down 0.1%)
- Mid Tier: $262,889 – $405,354
- Hi Tier: > $405,354 (up 0.2%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through September 2010.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
The low tier has now given up a total of 5% in just the last three months since the tax credit expired, falling to a new post-peak low in September. 5% of a $250,000 home is $12,500—over 50% larger than the amount of the tax credit. In other words, if you rushed to buy so you could get your free money from the government, you got suckered.
All three tiers fell again in September, but not all declines are made equal. The low tier dropped 2.5% MOM, the middle tier fell 1.1%, and the high tier lost less than 0.1%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through September 2010.
The low tier and middle tier increased their YOY losses, while the high tier marked a slight improvement. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of September – Low: -7.2%, Med: -4.6%, Hi: -0.8%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 30.6% off peak for the low tier, 25.8% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.7% off peak for the high tier.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 11.30.2010)