Poll: What does economic recovery mean to you?

What does economic recovery mean to you?

  • The economy stops getting worse. (13%, 12 Votes)
  • The economy gets slightly better than the bottom. (16%, 15 Votes)
  • The economy gets a lot better than the bottom. (58%, 53 Votes)
  • The economy gets back to 2005-2006 pace of utilization & growth. (13%, 12 Votes)

Total Voters: 92

This poll was active 12.05.2010 through 12.11.2010.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

28 comments:

  1. 1
    ray pepper says:

    This economic recovery I have witnessed personally continues to amaze me. I Coach so many kids in basketball/soccer and got to know their families and things have seemed to come full circle in the last 4-5 months. I do NOT hear about talk of job loss or impending job loss anymore. The uncertainty seems to have abated. Furthermore seeing the malls packed to the gills reaffirms what I have been hearing.

    I’m very happy for so many. For me its all about preserving the family unit and families making their own financial decisions on whats BEST for their family. However, I do wonder what % of this money being used by families is from not paying their Mtg. Just so many people I speak to have stopped paying or initiated short sales/foreclosure (or about to).

    I believe we are going to see something EPIC from the Fed in the next few months that will greatly STOP people from walking from their upside down homes. I think it will be across the board and make many very happy and some very upset. It will be sold to America as relief to everyone because it will stop home prices from sliding downward.

    If I’m wrong then we will continue trendline down for many years to come until all this upside down inventory comes back through foreclosure and shortsale. Because people will only remain stupid for so long and we now have someone to blame (Wallstreet) instead of ourselves. The social acceptability of short sale/foreclosure/bankruptcy is very evident and this is TOXIC on any long term hopes of recovery and the avoidance of the double dip.

  2. 2
    CRM says:

    It won’t feel like a recovery till unemployment is down to 7-8%, whatever the growth rate or capacity utilization numbers are. You don’t feel capacity utilization walking around a town or city, you feel unemployment.

  3. 3
    Wes says:

    Is economic recovery a function of job loss, housing prices more so than corporate profit? Or are they laggers vs. leaders? A real sign of true recover, IMHO, would be managed growth through proper checks and balances. Elizabeth Warren says it best: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-envisions-strong-disclosure-regime-2010-12-02?reflink=MW_news_stmp

  4. 4
    Pegasus says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 1 – Ray I think what you are describing and seeing is just the stabilization in job losses but not recovery. People that lost their jobs have learned to cope with collecting unemployment, working part time, not paying their mortgage, etc. Real recovery would be to return to 2005-2006 with unemployment in the 4-5 percent range. That can not happen with real estate and construction collapsed. We also have lost many jobs overseas. Our “new” economy can’t exist forever being funded with government intervention and foreign debt buyers at the expense of the tax payers.

    I agree we will see some sort of massive program to take the pressure off the real estate market. I am guessing a huge modification program for underwater mortgages. The losses of course will be upon the backs of the taxpayers and not the banks or investors. Our imploding Fannie and Freddie already own a large portion of these which the taxpayers are already funding.

    Here is a great explanation of our jobs market by David Stockman. Start about 2:45 into the video.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1680963951&play=1

  5. 5
    Trigger says:

    In economic recovery your GDP simply starts to go up.

    You should not focus on the GDP or unemployment prior to recession. You should look at the GDP. If it starts growing – BAM – this is it – you score. It is not so hard to score. The Fed simply needs to print some cash so people spend and all of this then counts towards GDP. So as long as the Fed look after us – we can relax.

  6. 6
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Economic recovery is when I get a job and can buy a house for a reasonable price again.

  7. 7
    Lo Ball Jones says:

    Actually, for anyone with a job, a “recovery” just means higher prices.

  8. 8
    Lanny Poffo says:

    RE: Trigger @ 5

    Well we scored then, GDP estimate for last quarter was 2.5% but to paraphrase Pyrrhuss – ‘if we continue to score like this, we are utterly ruined’.

    Lanny

  9. 9
    Scotsman says:

    Recovery is when lawlessness and dis-functionality are driven from the system, and the economy and government are restored to a growing, sustainable norm. Recovery is when the traditional relationships between public and private interests are restored, when risks and rewards are properly assigned, when confidence in long term stability allows for efficient capital flows. Until then, anything that looks like recovery is only an illusion, a mirage that can fall apart at any time. When you break your leg, grabbing band-aids, beer, and pain pills doesn’t constitute “recovery.” Setting the bone (painful), a cast, (restrictions and limits), and time to heal are true recovery. Our country is still popping beers and pills, and thinking it can fly.

  10. 10
    Sparsecus says:

    Puget Sound has grown all it can. It needs to shrink. Then it can recover.

  11. 11
    Trigger says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 9 – Scotsman – Everything is lawful. Bankers are good people and they are able to react to market conditions so that they can make more profit. I think we will have to bail them out only from time to time. Most of the time they will make a profit so that they can enjoy their lives more.

    As for a sustainable form – we devised printing. Even Bernake is sniffing that after this round of printing – more rounds of printing are yet to come. We have no inflation – so it looks like this is the right medicine.

  12. 12
    Trigger says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 9 – What you are proposing Scotsman will never work and will never be implemented. Why? Because it is painful. Politicians generally want to be reelected. Average Joe can get really angry when you tell him that now he will consume less and be poorer. How will this average Joe vote for such a person AGAIN? This does not make sense at all.

    Your plan maybe implemented when there is a total catastrophic situation, we have a war and hyperinflation. But until that time – we will print and then try to print some more.

    Most politicians do not understand economy and do not even care to understand. They want to be reelected. They need to look like approachable guys. Guys you would go out for a beer with. This is their main skill they are banking on.

  13. 13
    Show us how to do it says:

    I think anyone who goes around suggesting the economy is in some sort of recovery should go out and buy as much real estate as possible.

    Show us how to do it, and walk the talk. Otherwise, STFU.

  14. 14
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Trigger @ 12

    Oh, I agree- the system is not set up to reward the kinds of change that are needed. We will get more of the same until the checks bounce, then we will get more authoritarianism, then finally revolt. But it’s a long time off.

  15. 15
    Lanny Poffo says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 9

    There seems to be a growing awareness of this recently in the MSM although I have yet to see any real sustained impetus to hold those in private or public institutions accountable for being less-than-honest

    http://tinyurl.com/27nf8fd

    http://tinyurl.com/2f8pef4

  16. 16
    Scotsman says:

    This is a great explanation of why recovery, both in housing and the economy at large, is still a long way off. Hit the link, start the video, scoot forward to about 4:00 when David Stockman starts to talk. He breaks the economy down into sectors and talks about job growth in each sector. Note also his discussion on construction jobs and the over-building for 20 years in housing and commercial real estate. Well worth 8 minutes of your life. Krugman will be curled up in a ball by the end.

    http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=174045

  17. 17
    Scotsman says:

    Even better- Stockman answers all the questions and what-ifs most would ask, plus a good explanation of why QE and stimulus don’t work:

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip384325

    For you history buffs, America is following the same path that brought Rome down.

  18. 18
    Jonness says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 6:

    Economic recovery is when I get a job and can buy a house for a reasonable price again.

    IMO, that’s about as good of a description of economic recovery as exists.

  19. 19
    Jonness says:

    By Scotsman @ 17:

    Even better- Stockman answers all the questions and what-ifs most would ask, plus a good explanation of why QE and stimulus don’t work:

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip384325
    down.

    Scotsman:

    What’s your economic outlook between now and 2 years from now?

    Thanks :)

  20. 20

    By Scotsman @ 17:

    Even better- Stockman answers all the questions and what-ifs most would ask, plus a good explanation of why QE and stimulus don’t work:

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip384325

    For you history buffs, America is following the same path that brought Rome down.

    It’s nothing like Rome. Obama doesn’t play the fiddle.

  21. 21
    David Losh says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 17

    I was disappointed in Obama’s trip to Afghanistan. The news report the following day was focused on Karzai’s brother and the claims of corruption.

    It’s obvious that Obama lied. He had no intention of bringing our troops home.

    I don’t know why Stockman is out making the rounds today, but I hope the Republicans listen.

  22. 22
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Jonness @ 19

    Next two years? A continued slow drift downward with unemployment staying high or rising a bit as layoffs in the public sector (state, county, city) take their toll. On the federal level republicans won’t raise taxes, and the democrats won’t let them be reduced, so no changes there. Democrats won’t allow reductions in entitlement spending and republicans don’t really have their heart in reductions, so no changes there. The result will be continued $1.5T deficits and pressure on the currency and bond markets. Eventually interest rates will have to go up to compensate bond holders. I think that happens in the next two years, bringing substantial political change in the 2012 national elections and a crash as austerity measures are put into play. A couple years after that, say 2014, we hit bottom and start to rebuild. There’s a chance we default on the debt held by the Fed/ foreign interests and restructure the banking/monetary system, but it’s small. We’ll probably get some structural inflation eventually, but not for several years. We will see lots of price increases in imports and energy, along with some commodity price increases. Falling demand due to cut/frozen wages, high unemployment, and ongoing debt service/reduction will temper what would normally be greater price increases. Lots of just muddling along. Housing prices will continue to fall with seasonal bumps in prices and sales volume, but the trend is clear.

  23. 23
    Boomer says:

    Ray, is that really you?! Sounds like you are drinking the kool-aid now ;)

    Have you seen the latest food stamp participation? 43 million Americans are now relying on the food stamps assistance program — an all time high!

    Check this chart out since the recession began back in ’07

    http://www.epik.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/food-stamp-nov-2010.jpg

    Doesn’t look like it’s getting better to me anytime soon!

  24. 24
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Boomer @ 23

    Just reporting what I see and hear from my social circle. Definitely not an indicator on a macro level!!

    Bring on the STIMULI and let it be EPIC for housing!

  25. 25

    By David Losh @ 21:

    It’s obvious that Obama lied. He had no intention of bringing our troops home.

    It’s always fun seeing a Democrat realize that Democrats are only anti-war when a Republican is sitting in the White House.

    Independents realize that. Even Republicans realize that (because some of them actually become anti-war when a Democrat is in the White House.)

  26. 26
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 25

    Actually it’s economic.

    Both Iraq and Afghanistan were agreed to as a response to an attack on the United States. The attack was lead, carried out, and funded by terrorists. It has to be clear by now that no government was directly involved.

    Obama, standing on foreign soil, in Afghanistan while the Bush tax cuts are being debated demonstrated we are getting more of the same. Then he couldn’t meet with Karzai because of the weather, Oh Brother.

    Economic Recovery means to me that we stop spending billions of dollars on none of our gosh darn business, address taxes, and cut spending. Flying around for photo opportunities is a Bush thing.

  27. 27
    hoary says:

    Recovery to me means the construction employment rate declines are no longer in double digits.

  28. 28
    NumberMonkey says:

    Recovery would be most people working jobs that they are good at and getting paid a good wage for doing so. This could happen under just about any of the options in the poll.

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