The latest issue of Sound Housing Quarterly has been published (Q4 2010). Sound Housing Quarterly is a subscription-based sister project to Seattle Bubble that I created to provide a single consolidated and consistent source of high-level local housing market stats and analysis.
This month’s report sports 51 pages packed with unique housing market insights you won’t find anywhere else. Far from being a rehash of the material posted on the blog, Sound Housing Quarterly is a unique collection of charts, tables, data, analysis, and predictions that I compile every quarter just for this project. Here are a couple of highlights from the fourth quarter issue.
The Real Estate Heat Index (a proprietary index I created that uses supply, demand, and home prices to calculate the general “heat” of the housing market) inched up slightly in Q4 in all eight of the Puget Sound Counties I track. Here’s a look at King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap:
Meanwhile, affordability rose slightly everywhere but Kitsap and Island, thanks to slight drops in median home prices, but mostly thanks to a continued decrease in mortgage interest rates:
The full version of Sound Housing Quarterly includes detailed data and analysis for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.
Head over to HousingQuarterly.com to subscribe to Sound Housing Quarterly. You can also download a free single-page summary of this quarter’s report, or drop by the free archive to check out the 2008 Q3 through 2009 Q4 reports in full at no charge.
Hmm- the “heat index” is looking a little chilly these days. Given the strength of the recovery, the fact that many feel housing has bottomed (several times for some), the power of Seattle’s economic diversity, record low interest rates and. . the fact that they’re not making any more land- I can only come to one conclusion: The Tim’s methodology is bogus. ;-)
Fact check: Not even Kary has posted today, certainly because he’s too busy writing up deals.
RE: Scotsman @ 1 – You need to check your facts again. On the one hand I’ve probably posted 10 things today. On the other I have spent part of the day drafting a document pertaining to a “deal.”
http://feeds.feedburner.com/SeattleBubbleComments
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 2 –
“I have spent part of the day drafting a document pertaining to a “deal.”
Oooh- Earnest money refund? You sound tense- maybe go for a hike? ;-)
RE: Scotsman @ 3 – LOL. There are actually some situations where I’d like to see that result! And no, it’s not because I’ve ever had a client lose an earnest money. Knock wood.
You’re right though on the tense part. I think it’s from my walk yesterday. I’ve been stretching today.
Here’s something to chew on- according to the latest numbers almost 11% of homes in the U.S. are empty. Rent or buy, that’s a lot of inventory hanging out there. Tell me about the recovery and rebounding home prices again. . .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854
Choo…choo….Real World Express comin’ through!
Jan 04, 2007 Sold (Public Records) $316,250 10.8%/yr Public Records
Jan 21, 2011 Price Changed $134,900 — NWMLS #133511
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5412-31st-Ave-SW-98126/home/159178
Smell the Clover(tm) brewed coffee, house-heads?
Seattle is a dank, moldy, cloudy, lifeless town with prices the size of the most beautiful cities in the country such as San Diego and LA, that have golden sunshine all year long.
By Scotsman @ 5:
Gladly. According to Zillow, Seattle prices will stabilize well after the rest of the country, largely due to being late to the party coupled with increasing foreclosures.
http://www.nwcn.com/news/business/ZIllowcom-predicts-another-tough-year-in-Puget-Sound-housing-market-114946969.html
FIFO
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFO
RE: Scotsman @ 5 – Not only that, Scotsman, but think of how many less houses we would actually need if we didn’t have such an epidemic of divorce in this country. As economic times become tougher, maybe we’ll see the divorce rate go down, who knows?
Regarding empty houses, about ten years ago I used to go out to the ritzy neighborhoods in the foothills east of Redmond and just looky-loo (in some places, it seems that it was a requirement to have a grand piano visible through the front window). It always amazed me how many completely dark and lifeless houses that I saw on a typical evening, making me wonder if I was seeing a second house, the owner was away on business travel, or was still at work so they could afford said house.
The Tim, Can you discuss the methodology behind the affodability index? Is this the data you’re using (FY 2010 Median Family Income Documentation System)
http://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/il/il2010/2010MedCalc.odn
It has median family income by county thusly:
King & Snohomish $64,353
Pierce $52,098
Kitsap $53,877
Clark & Skamania $55,598
Cowlitz $46,529
Thanks!
RE: redmondjp @ 8 – If you look at a building of one bedroom condos, you’ll often see most of them dark, even though the building is fully occupied. People go out. That’s why there are always cars on the freeway.
By Real World Express @ 6:
The board across the front window and the term “fixer” didn’t lead you to conclude that their might be a slight difference in condition between then and now?
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11 –
Sure, I’m willing to believe that in 4 years, the condition of the house deteriorated so much that the price had to drop by 2/3rds….because, as you agents say, “location, location, location”….
Hey…wait a minute!
I’d also like to hear about methodology for “affordability”. Does that take into account the cost of a commute? That flips most “affordability” indexes on their head. Over a 30 year mortgage a commute from the exurbs can cost over $500k. Working locally can save some money, but most people in the suburbs/exurbs can’t work locally, plus wages are often much lower.
By Real World Express @ 12:
Actually it very well could, even without the decline in the market that has occurred.
Why do you want to pop in here and deceive people with meaningless examples?
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14 –
“Why do you want to pop in here and deceive people with meaningless examples?”
Oh come on, Kary, look at it. That was never much of a house to begin with, but it is a perfect example of what the bubble mania did to prices. Have you ever heard the term “$500k Ballard chocolate box?” I though so. Once in a while you should pull off your realtor hat and put on your thinking cap so you can get real at least for a moment or two. No one is fooled an longer.
RE: Scotsman @ 15 – I would agree there are other factors that affect pricing other than condition. But when you want to give an example of a decline in the market, you shouldn’t give an example that has an obvious difference of condition.