Weekend Open Thread (2011-02-04)

Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday February 4th, 2011. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

22 comments:

  1. 1
    Pegasus says:

    If you wondered about rising prices in just about all things except housing watch this for a correct presentation of the underlying causes. This is what happens when you keep letting the same criminals off and no one goes to prison. Make sure you thank your worthless Senators who refuse to do anything again and again……..

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080

  2. 2
    Julie Lyda says:

    Just in case you missed Tim’s tweet this morning. He will be on KUOW at 9:00 a.m.

    http://www.kuow.org/listen/

  3. 3

    RE: Pegasus @ 1

    LOL Pegusus

    Numbersusa just rated both our Wash St Senators F- on growth control.

  4. 4
    Blake says:

    Dylan Ratigan advising people on walking away from their mortgages:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-ratigan/a-mortgage-isnt-a-life-se_b_818835.html

    Could 2011 be the year we see more and more people throwing in the towel?

  5. 5

    Some Good News for Some of You From SWE for Jan 2011

    G F C

    0.24% 0.13% 2.37%

    G= Longterm Locked CD Rates
    F= Bonds [going down, with interest rates ticking up]
    C= American Stocks [going up with QEC2 treasury buys controlling interest rates going up]

    Hey, if you have a gambler’s knack, stocks did great in Jan 2011.

    Remember, ole SWE cautiously recommended stocks until the QEC2 dies out [June 2011].

    I’ve read some other blogs on energy/food hedging investments, like stocks, up. The risk is: how long before the consumer stops buying at high prices? Like the sudden oil/stock collapse in price after it reached $4.50/gal at the pump in 2008 [IMO, stocks go up when oil goes up because the base for profit goes up with higher enegy prices for almost everything]. How long can the investor ride the surge? Lord only knows, its up to the fickle consumer.

  6. 6

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – I think the wild card right now is the middle east–particularly Saudi Arabia.

  7. 7

    RE: Blake @ 4

    Interesting Article Blake

    I liked the blogger at the bottom who surmised the banksters’ push for more uncontrolled population growth is savvy, as they’ll “slamdunk” milk the Boomers’ equity in 5 years that they’ll never recover.

    LOL…..if the blogger’s right, IMO, the banksters are brainless. Uncontrolled population growth begets more and more unemployment and subsequent lower wages…sure, I agree we’ll need to eat and use more energy with more people, inflation there….but the demography of changing all the SFHs into packed gypsy shacks for overly concentrated lower wage populations in 5 years pushing home prices up is not only Banana Republic logic, but calling it a livable Seattle in the near future is beyond absurd, IMO.

    IMO, if this happens in 5 years, the Seattle homes will look like that URL that Deejayoh had me correct [thanx, BTW], and the prices will go down the toilet faster than ever:

    http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/median-household-income-is-falling-in-almost-every-single-major-american-city

  8. 8

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6

    Yes….Its Another Possible Prime Ingredient

    In our witches brew economy.

  9. 9
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – QE3 may continue, right? From what I can fathom, the QE’s inject liquidity in the market which flows into stocks. Some folks are saying look out after June.

    Are P/E ratios at all time highs for US stocks? I did not think so.

  10. 10
    David Losh says:

    RE: Julie Lyda @ 2

    Yes, I listened to it.

    So, Tim, it’s a little different when your pay check is on the line.

    Marc, the guy in View Ridge, was a house cleaning client of ours. He gave you an opening to say that prices were still extremely high, which they are.

  11. 11
    bobthemagicman says:

    More weekend questions… so I have a few homes I am watching in Redfin, mostly for sport at this point, but I am noticing that two of them that are bank owned have been reduced in price in the last 30 days and one twice in the last 90. My question is what does everyone suppose it signifies when the bank is having to reduce the prices of these homes that are already so far below value (yes value is relative) because they aren’t selling? As usual your comments are greatly appreciated!

    Example: http://www.redfin.com/WA/Bothell/20015-8th-Dr-SE-98012/home/2648376

  12. 12
    The Tim says:

    By bobthemagicman @ 11:

    My question is what does everyone suppose it signifies when the bank is having to reduce the prices of these homes that are already so far below value (yes value is relative) because they aren’t selling?

    To me it signifies that the homes are still priced above their actual value. That’s the great thing about REOs. The bank will just keep dropping the price until they find a buyer. REOs are driving prices because the #1 interest of the banks is to unload the homes. It’s ideal price discovery at work.

    Here are some example sales in that general area with similar homes that sold for a lot less than the current asking price of your example:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Bothell/507-223rd-Pl-SE-98021/home/2815031
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Bothell/19725-4th-Dr-SE-98012/home/12488867

  13. 13

    RE: bobthemagicman @ 11 – Usually it’s due to condition. Have you actually seen the houses in person?

    Also, I’ve seen situations where they lower the price to near the price of a prior offer they rejected, instead of simply countering the offer. I’m not sure what that’s about.

  14. 14
    Cheap South says:

    RE: bobthemagicman @ 11

    $389K is still an obscene amount of money, regardless of the house size, etc. It might be “a good deal”; but your potential buyer pool is relatively small.

  15. 15
    EconE says:

    RE: bobthemagicman @ 11

    What a delightful symphony of crown molding!

    She’s a beaut!

  16. 16
    Pegasus says:

    RE: bobthemagicman @ 11 – Nice pics too! Too bad they had to redact them for security purposes. The lazy agent lives on.

  17. 17
    Blurtman says:

    -$110,000 and dropping for this 4,000 sq. ft. 2005 built Sammamish beauty:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3030636688-19447-SE-27th-Pl-Sammamish-WA-98075

  18. 18
    Blurtman says:

    $160,000 underwater in the Crossings in Sammamish: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2033-211th-Pl-SE-Sammamish-WA-98075/80260206_zpid/

    Prices dropping from $257/.sq.ft to $191/sq.ft.

    The Crossings – starting at $800,000, errr.. make that $600,000.

  19. 19
    Macro Investor says:

    By Pegasus @ 1:

    If you wondered about rising prices in just about all things except housing watch this for a correct presentation of the underlying causes. This is what happens when you keep letting the same criminals off and no one goes to prison. Make sure you thank your worthless Senators who refuse to do anything again and again……..

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080

    They’re not worthless, Peg’s. You may be misunderstanding who they really work for.

  20. 20
  21. 21
    David Losh says:

    RE: bobthemagicman @ 11

    Oh Geez, why not, in that area I have a little speech that in Real Estate there are assets, and liabilities. I worked out there for three years, and got some experience in wet lands, land use, zoning, and property rights. It’s a mine field.

    Some very savvy investors are holding dirt they can’t do anything with. Some properties were built on dirt that should have been left alone. Under ground streams, proximity to wet lands, power lines, or future development are all things you need a neighborhood expert to guide you through.

    I’ve seen properties approved under some “buddy” system that “outsiders” weren’t allowed to build. The building department out there went through a moratorium for like a year, or two, so they could sort out what could be allowed. You also have the Army Corps of Engineers reports out there that changed some of the use.

    In my speach I say that just because you own a property out there it doesn’t mean it’s worth anything, as matter of fact you may be liable for the stewardship of the property. By the way, a few years back the governing body out there declined to take any more “free” land, as a “gift.” for a tax write off. They have enough to maintain.

  22. 22
    Leadville guy says:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/10506-128th-Ave-NE-98033/home/2094586

    We have been mildly looking in Kirkland/Redmond for something for our family (2 parents/2 toddler twins/live in nanny, for now). Not too particular on location as long as we stay south of Juanita and close to town. Must be in LWSD. We aren’t set on any sqft. Just 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Toughest requirement is not a dump or cheap, sloppy new construction. The idea of the cottages was interesting, but not at the above prices. Below 475-500 is where I would have guessed.

    What do you think it’s worth? We have all the time in the world to wait and rent.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.