Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2011-04-02

Powered by Twitter Tools

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

15 comments:

  1. 1
    Jonness says:

    According to the Case Shiller 20-city composite, we are underwater and approaching a double bottom. However, I’ve managed to find another highly important chart that verifies the CS data. http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/nice-booty-ass-butt-17.jpg

  2. 2
    David Losh says:

    Windermere investing in technology is a waste of every one’s time, and money. Buyers, and sellers rely on technology to do what? What data is there that will be predictive?

    Scotsman did make an excellent point in his 100,000 comment. Was that just Scotsman’s 100,000th comment, or for was that for the total site? Anyway he made an excellent point.

    Looking at past data won’t gaurantee a future return. You need to buy something of value, and past data is just a talking point, a sales point.

    What has always bothered me is the number of Real Estate agents who don’t know anything about the product they are “selling.” Nothing has changed about that. In my opinion it has gotten worse.

    If you Google search for a Real Estate agent, in my opinion, you have already lost. Technology has only brought the same “we have the data” Real Estate sales gimmicks to a new level. In the comments of the Geek Wire News one individual is bragging that he bought a property that redfin delivered to him a day before any one else. He was implying he was ahead of the “game.” First day on the market selling is certainly a game. Only looking at “fresh” listings is a game sales people use.

    So, for me, I think more time should be spent on educating Real Estate agents. I’m disappointed in the National Association of Realtors, and Multiple Listing Services requirements, because it focuses too much on sales techniques rather than the product of Real Estate, transactions, legal trends, or the responsibility of home ownership.

  3. 3
    The Tim says:

    Speaking of link roundups, here are a few good real estate-related April Fool’s posts from yesterday:

      Were there others that I missed? I was on the road from 7:00 AM to 11:45 PM yesterday, so I might have missed one or two.

  4. 4
    Jonness says:

    “We’re almost to the point where, if you look at historical relationships to Seattle area incomes and home prices, I think we’re pretty much almost to that point where they’re kind of lined back up.”Tim did not make his assessment of a further 5 to 10% by looking at historical relationships to Seattle area incomes and home prices. He looked at historical relationships between U.S. aggregate incomes divided by the population and Seattle area home prices. IOW, he did not adjust for factors such as the growing disparity between the rich and middle class or take into account the “local Seattle” factor.

    If you look at Seattle area incomes compared to inflation over the last decade, they have decreased; yet, house prices have skyrocketed. IOW, if you look at Seattle area incomes compared to home prices, the bottom looks MUCH further away. If you compare these measures for practically anywhere else in the PacNW, you get a similar looking chart. This data pattern put the “Seattle is special” theory to rest a long time ago, and nothing has changed since then.

    I think the meme being touted throughout the media needs to be quantified and clarified so people do not get the wrong idea about what they are being told. This is very important, especially now that Tim is working for redfin, which will profit considerably if home sales increase.

  5. 5
    Birther Brit says:

    RE: Jonness @ 4

    Also around 1990 Seattle was #1/#2 Best Places to live.

    Now it’s 3rd most miserable.

    The high prices were based on the Seattle Image of the 1990s as a hip place to be.

    No one would think that now as its star has long faded…

  6. 6
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Jonness @ 1

    OK- what exactly do we have there? Bubble bottom? Bottom with double bubble? Bubblicious? Ardell?

  7. 7
    Scotsman says:

    Ah, Tim- now I feel bad. While I’m honored to be #100,000 I certainly wish that post had been more complimentary. Be assured you and all of your efforts are admired and respected here!

    Look on the bright side- It could have been Kary pummeling you with another analysis of median constructs and how they’re masking the recovery in prices. ;-)

    Congratulations! On to a million!

  8. 8
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By Scotsman @ 6:

    Look on the bright side- It could have been Kary pummeling you with another analysis of median constructs and how they’re masking the recovery in prices. ;-)

    I know you were joking there, but I’ve never said anything about masking a recovery. Only that the mix of the median changed with ever increasing REOs, and that the change in mix makes things appear worse than they are.

    Funny how the mix affecting the median is widely mentioned around here, but when the mix moves things lower it’s suddenly no longer an issue. ;-)

  9. 9
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7

    “Funny how the mix affecting the median is widely mentioned around here, but when the mix moves things lower it’s suddenly no longer an issue. ;-)

    Well at least you got that right! This train only goes one way- down, down, down. Anything else is heresy. After all, I’ve got a lot of my net worth tied up in RESEx betting on a $125K KC median.

  10. 10
    Chris says:

    Bad picture alert. Remove the truck from the yard, maybe?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/10047-12th-Ave-NW-98177/home/96858

  11. 11
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 4

    It really is all sales hype.

    On the Geek Wire News Windermere post one of the Real Estate agent commenters is bragging about how well he is doing selling people carp. Technology certainly has swindled a lot of people in the past three years with bogus data reports, that are a direct feed from corporate media.

    People should be more aware lately, but it seems that with any “good” news comes another round of foolish Real Estate activity.

    At the beginning some one certainly could have sold, rented for a few years, and bought to do very well. After 2008 any move was a lateral. There may have been a few thousand dollars on the table, but the cost of getting out of a property then the cost to buy ate up any chance of a profit.

    In my opinion we will have to wait until after this June to see where the market will go. We have to see if the government will be pulling out any other programs, and if the global economy will stabalize.

    Looking at rental data, or income ratios is telling us nothing. Even employment numbers are severly tainted.

    So I’m sorry for an industry that has such hardship, but at the same time I don’t think preying on the misery of others is the best way to stay in business either.

  12. 12
    Jonness says:

    By David Losh @ 10:

    In my opinion we will have to wait until after this June to see where the market will go. We have to see if the government will be pulling out any other programs, and if the global economy will stabalize.

    I’m with you all the way on that one. At this point, I think the macro outlook is much more important to where we are going than the local outlook.

    Also, in my above post, I don’t mean to imply Tim is in any way being disingenuous. But if I didn’t know better, I would rush out and buy a house knowing that a local RE data expert and notoriously bearish forecaster stated Seattle area incomes are at historically healthy levels compared to prices. But since I know house prices are still about 22% above healthy relationships to “Seattle area” incomes, and the entire PacNW is in a similar position, I believe there is still a fair amount of downside risk.

  13. 13
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    Here is an interesting Harney story on how interest is paid on FHA loans:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2014624446_harney03.html

    Basically no partial months, so if you close or refinance after the end of a month, you have to pay the entire next month’s interest.

  14. 14
    pdmseatac says:

    With regard to the Dupre+Scott story, I also think it’s overblown. When the McGuire Building was shut down, there were several stories published in the local newspapers announcing the onset of immediate huge rental increases in the metro Seattle area, due to the loss of rental units and 150 – 200 people being abruptly forced to look for new digs. But my rent actually went down when I moved from a cramped apartment to a fairly nice house. I noticed at the time that asking rents in Craigslist increased by 10%-20% on some corporate-owned buildings that I monitor, immediately after the news stories appeared. The higher asking prices lasted for 6 weeks – 2 months, then came back down to the same levels they were at prior to the McGuire fiasco.
    I notice that the same thing has occurred in the last few weeks with the current news stories. The day after the first story appeared, asking rents for several buildings I keep close tabs on went up by ~15%, as advertised on Craigslist. At the same time, I notice that there are plenty of apartments that don’t appear to have tried raising rents significantly or at all. And there are a lot of apartments for rent. It also does seem that there are an increasing number of SFH rentals appearing, and that in many cases the rents are competitive with much more modestly appointed corporate-owned apartments. I am seeing a lot of houses being advertised as “duplexes”, many of which would seem to be more like room mate situations. I don’t see any sign that there is currently a shortage of rentals.

  15. 15
    The Tim says:

    By Jonness @ 4:

    Tim did not make his assessment of a further 5 to 10% by looking at historical relationships to Seattle area incomes and home prices. He looked at historical relationships between U.S. aggregate incomes divided by the population and Seattle area home prices. IOW, he did not adjust for factors such as the growing disparity between the rich and middle class or take into account the “local Seattle” factor.

    What are you talking about? In this post on home prices and incomes, the incomes are all for the Seattle area. Median household income is for King County, from OFM, and per capita income is for the Seattle metro area from the BEA, as linked in the post.

    I’ve never made a chart comparing local home prices to national incomes. That wouldn’t make any sense.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.