Case-Shiller: Seattle Gets a Teeny Tiny Spring Bounce

Happy Case-Shiller day, everybody. Yes, it’s time once again for us to take a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data, Seattle home prices were:

Up 0.1% February to March.
Down 7.5% YOY.
Down 30.9% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices also rose 0.1% from February to January, while year-over-year prices were down just 3.6%.

Pretty much the exact same seasonal bump that we saw last year at this time. If we see the same sort of action this year over the next few months, we can expect to see the index rise a few percent before flatlining again and resuming the decline in August. That sounds like a fairly likely outcome, although I expect the bump and subsequent decline to both be smaller this year than last.

Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Still only one city in positive YOY territory: Washington DC.

In March, fifteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle (one less than February):

  • Washington, DC at +2.7%
  • Detroit at -0.9%
  • Los Angeles at -1.7%
  • Dallas at -2.5%
  • Boston at -2.7%
  • New York at -3.4%
  • Denver at -3.8%
  • San Diego at -4.0%
  • San Francisco at -5.1%
  • Atlanta at -5.2%
  • Las Vegas at -5.3%
  • Miami at -6.1%
  • Cleveland at -6.3%
  • Charlotte at -6.8%
  • Tampa at -6.9%

Falling faster than Seattle as of February: Portland, Chicago, Phoenix, and Minneapolis.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of the raw Case-Shiller HPIs.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through November.

Twelve of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller hit new post-peak lows in March, as did the 20-city Composite index.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the forty-four months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 30.9%, basically exactly where they were last month.

Here’s the “rewind” chart, to show you how much was gained, and then given back up over the last six-plus years:

Case-Shiller HPI: Seattle Rewind

The blue line on August 2005 represents the month that this site launched. As of March 2011, there have effectively been zero price gains since June 2004.

For posterity, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities fell yet again in December. Year-over-year, Portland came in at -7.6%, Los Angeles at -1.7%, and San Diego at -4.0%. That’s quite the sudden divergence between LA and San Diego.

I think this graph is still worth posting if only to display how the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow, causing all the markets to rise simultaneously, and once the artificial support was removed, to come crashing back down to reality simultaneously.

Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast

Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.31.2011)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

64 comments:

  1. 1

    GREETINGS:

    Hope your Memorial Day Weekend was grand!

    When will more buyers qualify for Seattle real estate loans?….it’s simple, when younger workers [older well-paid workers have already bought in and generally don’t want to buy in to a depreciating asset on 2nd homes], currently renting, make enough net pay minus car, college, etc loans payments to pay out 30% of it for mortage payments.

    When will this happen? Lord only knows, it depends on many factors….but don’t hold your breath, Some recent studies suggest we spend 25% of our gross per capita pay just on our car alone. Now let’s factor in food, also missing from the CPI calculation.http://www.theurbancountry.com/2011/05/americans-work-2-hours-each-day-to-pay.html

  2. 2
    RB says:

    Well there is no doubt that some of the new regulations are not helping the banking industry. However no one is considering that Washington State Seattle metro area has jobs. When the rental market gets squeezed upward like it is undergoing then the real estate sales will follow. Most of the rest of the country is still not adding jobs to the economy and suffering under two administrations who do not know how to quit spending and diluting the value of the dollar.

    We can hope that the building materials market will pick up this next year due to all of the rebuilding that is needed world wide, and thanks to the over spending by the republicans and democrats we should see some monster inflation that will at some point raise the price of every thing that is purchased in this country.

    The cost for international credit should stabilize if we quit spending and tighten up the interest rates.

  3. 3
    David North says:

    Tim, I agree with your analysis and prediction.

  4. 4

    The S & P/Case-Shiller Data You Use Tim is Likely Skewed

    Article:

    “…These home price indicators are distorted because the index methodology, in this case, weighs down or eliminates data points associated with distressed property sales….”

    http://thewallstreetchallenger.com/Index/Case-Shiller_HPI.htm

    In other words the I’d put the shoe on the other foot….if low priced units aren’t eliminated to rosy up the data you present, why is it you can hire an independent home appraiser who can find low priced units purposely omitted from our property value records?

    You may want to insert a caveat that you are not legally binding to your referenced data. Ask Kary for advice. I would.

  5. 5
    Scotsman says:

    “Honey, did you feel that?”

    “Sorry, dear- dead cat in the road- didn’t see it in time.”

  6. 6
    Ray Pepper says:

    Inventory concerns? Are Bubble Heads still complaining?

    Patience………..Remember they need to SELL far more then you need to Buy.

    They are ALL coming back this decade one way or another. *However, as usual my caveat…………don’t count the Fed Out! More Stimulus in the years ahead to keep people in their upside down homes is coming. Bank on it!

    Pray for a flat line but accept slight declines !

    Flying out of Sacramento and seeing the bloodshed of nearly 80% in communities here make Washington’s housing stats look like a dream.

  7. 7

    RE: softwarengineer @ 4 – We’ve talked about that a lot, and it works both ways. C-S also throws out the numbers they think are too high too. It’s a limitation of trying to pretend you can determine value without having been to the property (or in C-S’s case, probably not even have looked at pictures or listing information).

    In any case, don’t despair. Locally the C-S Seattle number remains highly correlated to the King County SFR median, and number which has been greatly weighted down by distressed properties. The fact that has occurred actually shows that the C-S index is not accurate, because if you’re not a distressed property it overstates your decrease in value, and if you are distressed it understates your decrease in value. It’s sort of like the Census reporting that the average family has 2.3 kids–a number that doesn’t apply to anyone. But like the mean and median, it is a measure of market health.

  8. 8

    By Ray Pepper @ 6:

    Flying out of Sacramento and seeing the bloodshed of nearly 80% in communities here make Washington’s housing stats look like a dream.

    Bloodshed? Are you talking about Sacramento or Compton? ;-)

  9. 9

    RE: RB @ 2

    LOL, Seattle Metro Area Has Jobs????

    Let’s go to the BLS data and check out your wild allegation.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf

    Go to Table 1, Washington State, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Civilian Labor Force.

    As of March 2010 to March 2011 the Seattle area civilian labor force decreased by 21,000 jobs, from 1,901,700 an year ago to 1,880,700 today…..LOL, that’s if you even believe that overly rosy statistics garbage from the BLS….LOL

  10. 10
    Scotsman says:

    Also out today:

    May consumer confidence- 60.8, down from 66.0

    May future expectations- 75.2, down from 83.2

    May Chicago Purchasers 56.6 down from 67.6

    Food stamp usage breaks record again- 44.5 million people receiving.

    “Credit rating agency Moody’s on Tuesday placed Japan’s sovereign ratings on review for possible downgrade, citing concerns about a weak policy response to faltering economic growth prospects” Japan?!? Well, their GDP is -4%.

    There is no recovery. The next leg down will be much like the last leg down.

  11. 11
    Scotsman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 9

    That can’t be right- it just can’t. Everyone here makes at leat $100K and bonuses in software or biotech. Both are hiring like crazy. Haven’t you seen the pages and pages of Microsoft job listings?

  12. 12

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7

    The Article I Referenced Above Clears Up This Anomaly You Brought Up on “Weighting Home Prices”

    “….The first major assumption in associated with price anomaly. The methodology for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices applies smaller weights to home prices that see a large change relative to the statistical distribution of all price changes in that metropolitan area. Behind this premise is the assumption that price anomaly is due to changes in home quality. However, when home prices in one region start to quickly depreciate due to the large inventory of foreclosed homes (e.g. in an area with high unemployment), the full effect of foreclosed home prices change is not captured….”

    In other words, with some 30% of home sales distressed properties, weighting down its impact is a joke, its not a dinky group anymore, its clerly mainstream.

    Let’s just use “honest” data with no weightings, or we’re looking at a joke IMO.

  13. 13

    RE: softwarengineer @ 12 – It’s all pretend. They cannot determine the change in value due to market conditions without actually having seen the house when it was sold the last time and this time. That’s why they have to weight it. Your solution would make it even less accurate, not more so.

  14. 14

    Interesting how today’s Seattle Times take on this is ” Seattle bucks US trend on home prices.”
    Prices were up one tenth of one percent, for one month in a row. Really bucking that ‘ol trend, huh?
    What they didn’t state was that prices were down 7.5% from the same month one year ago.
    If you just read the headline, you’d think that Seattle was one of those cities immune to the housing downturn. Nowhere does the article state that Seattle area home prices are down over 30% from the peak, and that over the last year we’ve fared worse than most other cities.
    I don’t know what the future holds. Maybe ” The Tim effect” will be substantial, and Seattle will reverse course. But it hasn’t happened yet, despite the fact that The Seattle Times might have hired John L Scott’s nephew to write headlines.

  15. 15

    RE: Scotsman @ 11

    LOL Scotsman

    Google Seattle Area Hiring [Not Job Posting] Trend History for 2011 from 2010

    Its omitted…I wonder why? LOL

    The only data of that type is in the BLS and it WAY over rosy [as negative as it is]….LOL

  16. 16

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14 – Up or down by that tiny amount is mere noise. Certainly not worth the focus of a headline.

  17. 17

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13

    I’m an Engineer Skilled at Statistical Analyses

    You sell real estate….we’ll agree to disagree :-)

  18. 18

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14

    If I buy a 2nd House Because I got Married

    I’ll hire you Ira…LOL

  19. 19
    jj says:

    Thats the timmy bounce – Teeny Tiny Timmy Bounce…timmmay….

  20. 20

    By softwarengineer @ 17:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13

    I’m an Engineer Skilled at Statistical Analyses

    You sell real estate….we’ll agree to disagree :-)

    You seem to want to turn it into another median where the mix of distressed affects the results. The more distressed properties there are, the lower the value. Why? Is there a reason other than simply you have a bias in favor of wanting a lower number?

  21. 21
  22. 22
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20

    Take it to the “Big Median Debate” thread. . . ;-)

  23. 23
    HappyRenter says:

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    When will more buyers qualify for Seattle real estate loans?….it’s simple, when younger workers [older well-paid workers have already bought in and generally don’t want to buy in to a depreciating asset on 2nd homes], currently renting, make enough net pay minus car, college, etc loans payments to pay out 30% of it for mortage payments.

    When will this happen? …

    When the government really starts creating jobs! They have been throwing money at things like “first-home-buyer credit”, cash-for-clunkers, while slashing taxes for the rich. Meanwhile, teachers have been loosing their jobs, college staff has been fired, research programs have been frozen. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) are being slashed!!! The government needs to abandon the trickle-down-economy mentality and create jobs for real people and college graduates. Young people are loosing confidence into the country and are not going to buy housing.

  24. 24

    RE: HappyRenter @ 23 – You forgot to mention that they are paying more and more of their tuition, leaving many of them in a huge hole when they graduate.

    In the past government understood that an investment in education created more wealth (and tax revenue) in the future. Now they don’t do that as much because they’re spending the money they have on other things.

  25. 25
    hoary says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14

    “[The news] makes idiots of us because it gives us confidence, not insight.”

    –from Taleb’s ‘Fooled By Randomness’

  26. 26

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14 – Looking at this further I think you’re being a bit unfair. They just said bucks the trend. The P-I and KOMO referenced a rise in price. Flat would be the better term.

  27. 27
    Scotsman says:

    RE: RB @ 2

    ” we should see some monster inflation that will at some point raise the price of every thing that is purchased in this country.”

    We’re seeing it now- thanks to currency devaluation. Everything we import, and everything that has energy as a price component, is rising at a sharp rate. You got that part right.

    What we aren’t seeing, and won’t be seeing, is rising wages and an increase in the portion of personal income that’s available for home purchases. Government regulation, declining quality of education, high tax rates, all are working to limit domestic innovation and productivity increases. Without productivity increases in an already competitive world economy we won’t be seeing wage increases any time soon. Did I mention the high unemployment rate? Too many available workers keeping wages down.

    What are we left with? Flat/falling wages, higher costs for energy, food, and other necessities, looming higher taxes, ever less money for home purchases. Until this reverses, home prices will continue to fall. Inflation will kill the consumer without helping housing one bit.

  28. 28
    David Losh says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 27

    The one component that you have in your comment is about innovation. The United States is stuck doing business as usual, and waiting for dead jobs to come back.

    Here in the Pacific Northwest we must be used to a changing economy. We no longer have fishing, or timber, we have technology.

    Well that technology is also stuck in the old ways of doing business, by calculating banking, or financial business models, fooling around with commodity prices, or in general keeping the gas combustion engine looking like a “new” invention.

    If the United States were to recover financially it will have to innovate, in energy, health, food production, and water reclamation, but God no we can’t have the hippie crap, we need to do it the way dad did it.

  29. 29
    Hal (GT) says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 5 – LOL Best analysis yet.

  30. 30

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 26:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14 – Looking at this further I think you’re being a bit unfair. They just said bucks the trend. The P-I and KOMO referenced a rise in price. Flat would be the better term.

    If I’m being unfair it’s only because I singled out The Times. I hadn’t seen the P-I or KOMO.
    Prices here went down for seven months in a row, and then they went up one month in a row by one tenth of one percent. Whoopedy Doo! Let’s celebrate this ” bucking the trend”!. We’ll make it a potluck. Who’s bringing the tofu kebabs?

  31. 31
    Marc says:

    The Case-Shiller MoM might not look too bad but get ready for some ugly May MLS numbers. I ran May numbers through yesterday and, so far, only 1,258 homes have sold in King County compared to 1,809 in the same time period last year. This year there’s an extra business day in May which will allow for some catch up. I wonder how many deals will get crammed through today. We need 275 just to match last month.

    Interestingly, the median on the 1,258 sold to date is $340,000 which, if it holds true for today’s closings, will be a sizeable decrease MoM and YoY.

    Data compiled from NWMLS sources but not published or guaranteed by NWMLS.

  32. 32
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Marc @ 31 – Thanks for the info Marc.

  33. 33
    Scotsman says:

    Ruh Roh! We’d better get this idex turned around. Turd-in-punchbowl alert! What’s the saying?- “cash flow always wins in the end?”

    “”If we do not see a meaningful recovery in home prices by the end of the year, we may need to contemplate impairment charges on first liens owned by banks and wholesale write-downs of second lien exposures. This implies solvency issues for BAC [BAC 11.675 -0.015 (-0.13%) ] , WFC [WFC 28.19 0.05 (+0.18%) ] , JPM [JPM 42.91 0.12 (+0.28%) ] and C [C 41.11 0.14 (+0.34%) ] , and big losses for the U.S. government and private investors,” says Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43224167

    http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=187233

  34. 34
    deejayoh says:

    By HappyRenter @ 23:

    When the government really starts creating jobs!

    Some of us don’t think that is the role of goverment…

  35. 35
    Andtech says:

    Not sure if this has been answered, but why is Seattle seeing a MoM price increase (even though very minimal), compared to most other cities seeing a price decline? Do other markets not have the seasonal bump that Seattle has?

  36. 36

    RE: Marc @ 31 – I’m coming up with about 50 more sales just 90 minutes later. I don’t think REOs like to close on the last day(s) of the month, so that might drag the median up a bit if most of the late reported sales are non-distressed. The median for those is still over 400k.

    Vague reference to numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  37. 37
    MichaelB says:

    Keep hoping Tim! The world needs optimists!

    I would put my money on Scotsman. Let’s face it, this bubble may only be half deflated in Seattle. Another 30% drop is quite possible over time, especially in outlying areas like Everett with poor schools about to get even poorer and a long commute to Seattle and Bellevue. The US economy is stagnating and that will have a significant impact on Boeing – a company not really committed to the Pacific NW. Once the long term downward trend for real estate becomes apparent, this blog is going to be depressing Tim! You have put money down for the pleasure of renting from the bank to own a depreciating asset in a weak location. In this economy, more and more people will wisely choose to rent and wait for further drops.

    Tim – Sell now and get out while you still can!

  38. 38

    RE: Andtech @ 35 – Just eyeballing it, 10 of the 20 cities had declines of less than 1% MOM. The difference between that and what we did is just noise.

  39. 39
    Ray Pepper says:

    Eastside Funding taking back increasing amounts of flippers from Trustee Sales Buyers. How can this be? 20% down on a Trustee Sale buy and returning to the Lender? i will tell you how…………..fools bidding up prices for the banks=I D I O T S !

    Enjoy your rentals bagholders….or just give them back quickly and step aside.

  40. 40
    Lurker says:

    Hm, no wonder DC housing is weathering the storm! They have a $5K first time (of the year) MAIN home buyers credit? (http://otr.cfo.dc.gov/otr/cwp/view,a,1330,q,594156.asp) I’m starting to think we should enable permanent first time home-buyer tax credits nationwide and solve all of our problems. EZ PZ man.

  41. 41
    BillE says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 33
    From the cnbc article…
    “Keeping your fingers crossed for the housing market is just the tip of the iceberg. Prices have now fallen, on this index, more than they did during the Great Depression. ‘On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first fell,’ notes Paul Dales at Capital Economics.”

  42. 42
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: MichaelB @ 37RE: MichaelB @ 37

    “In this economy, more and more people will wisely choose to rent and wait for further drops.”

    agreed. Hearing and seeing this more and more everyday as people deleverage. Horribly toxic to any recovery is the perception that BUYING=STUPIDITY. This perception/reality will take many many years to change and watch closure of the brick and mortar real estate companies across the nation at a much faster rate.

    The demise of the NWMLS is inevitable with 21510 paying members as of end of April 2011 from 23178 the same time last year.

    The 6% buffet of insanity will be OVER by 2020 and what emerges will FINALLY be a consumer friendly, cost effective way to buy and sell real estate for Buyer and Seller!

    I can hardly wait!!!

  43. 43
    LocalYokel says:

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 30:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 26:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 14 – Looking at this further I think you’re being a bit unfair. They just said bucks the trend. The P-I and KOMO referenced a rise in price. Flat would be the better term.

    If I’m being unfair it’s only because I singled out The Times. I hadn’t seen the P-I or KOMO.
    Prices here went down for seven months in a row, and then they went up one month in a row by one tenth of one percent. Whoopedy Doo! Let’s celebrate this ” bucking the trend”!. We’ll make it a potluck. Who’s bringing the tofu kebabs?

    Take a look at how much real estate ads they have in the “paper”.
    Old skool MSM revenue model is dying. In its death gurgles, you are seeing
    the nature of the beast. Money talks, bullsh*t walks.

    Next good news, car sales are going through the roof and used car values are
    so high! Good time to sell your used car and buy a new one! Wait…the
    times had that two weeks ago.

  44. 44
    Pegasus says:

    By Hal (GT) @ 29:

    RE: Scotsman @ 5 – LOL Best analysis yet.

    I thought he was talking about his sex life!

  45. 45

    By Ray Pepper @ 39:

    Eastside Funding taking back increasing amounts of flippers from Trustee Sales Buyers. How can this be? 20% down on a Trustee Sale buy and returning to the Lender? i will tell you how…………..fools bidding up prices for the banks=I D I O T S !

    I think it’s because they don’t know what’s involved in fixing up a property–inexperience–that and the risk of the unknown when bidding on such an item. The 20% down can be less than what it costs to fix the place up to flip.

  46. 46

    By Lurker @ 40:

    Hm, no wonder DC housing is weathering the storm!.

    Government worker salaries.

  47. 47
    ESS says:

    I would like to have some other statistics – such as housing starts – both private houses and apartments, rental vacancies – both for apartments and houses, number of jobs, and number of people moving into and out of the Puget Sound area. I think those kind of statistics are more useful than a month to month increase or decrease of prices for houses when trying to figure out the longer term (one to five years) health of the local real estate market. Anyone have those statistics broken down by the three county area as well as local cities? Thanks

  48. 48

    By ESS @ 47:

    I would like to have some other statistics – such as housing starts -. . .. I think those kind of statistics are more useful than a month to month increase or decrease of prices for houses when trying to figure out the longer term (one to three years) health of the local real estate market. .

    For one thing, those stats would actually suggest something about the future, rather than the past. ;-)

  49. 49
    S-Crow says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 45RE: Ray Pepper @ 39 – Eastside Funding and Vestus seem to have a relationship. Don’t they bid FOR the buyer on many of these properties?From their Website: “Eastside Funding has closed over half a billion dollars in loans in just the past four years, becoming the industry leader for one simple reason. We make borrowing on foreclosure properties easy, with no qualifying, appraisals, or inspections.With as little as Zero down, we take over at the auction and do the rest to make your investment dreams a reality.”

    They are taking back the very homes they are bidding on for their “clients?” when they cannot sell it?

    I don’t know exactly how it works but it seems like the “house” has very little risk. Nice position to be in. Make a few points on the front end and then if something goes wrong take the property back at a 20% premium built in and get an improved property to boot. Sounds like a very lucrative business model, except for the buyers looking to cash in on the yellow brick road of foreclosures. But, I could be wrong.

  50. 50

    RE: S-Crow @ 49 -I’m familiar with one where the flipper bought it for about $160,000, so that would be $128,000 financed. It was sold months later after a deed in lieu from the flipper for about $185,000, or $168,000 after costs of sale. That would leave about $40,000 to play with, but in the case of this particular one I think they took it over and needed to do almost the entire remodel. Ignoring interest and payments they probably just roughly broke even or lost a little.

    The big mistake the flipper made (besides missing a very expensive problem) was that the property was only a one bathroom, and there was simply no way to create much equity in such a house at the price paid.

    Whether or not a company like Eastside will do well probably depends a lot on how far along the flipper is in the process before they default. Typically that’s probably well into the process, or even after completion of the remodel. But if it’s not, it could be like the above example.

  51. 51
    ray pepper says:

    Yes, guys they are 1 in the same. However, when a flip goes sour they lose their client because they are busted out. The client has went through their 20% plus the cost to get property in mkt condition. I find the biggest error is always the same..Not the fix up costs but they simply pay too much for the home during bidding. Costs to sell with excise and Realtor fees in this state is 10% so you have to get your money in REALLY good.

    The rates to lend are 4 points and 12% interest only for a 9 month term. After 9 months you are subject to lender discretion. However, they do NOT lend if you do NOT have an exit strategy.. Minimum credit score must be 640 so they know they can throw the property into a rental status and you can get a loan on it, thus the 80% capital comes back.

    As of late too many flips are on the mkt along with all the other bank REO’s and short sales as we all know. The unyielding inventory will make the BEST flip sit on the mkt, and sit, and sit…..this is toxic to the Trustee Sale Buyer..

  52. 52
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Marc @ 31

    Worth mentioning: April 30 was the last day for contracts to qualify for the $8,000 “1st time buyer” Credit and the $6,500 home buyer credit. That would have inflated May closings last year. June’s as well.

    I don’t think “the extra business day” factor is as relevant as the “no tax credit” factor.

  53. 53
    deejayoh says:

    By ESS @ 47:

    I would like to have some other statistics – such as housing starts – both private houses and apartments, rental vacancies – both for apartments and houses, number of jobs, and number of people moving into and out of the Puget Sound area. I think those kind of statistics are more useful than a month to month increase or decrease of prices for houses when trying to figure out the longer term (one to five years) health of the local real estate market. Anyone have those statistics broken down by the three county area as well as local cities? Thanks

    John Burns Consulting has some of the housing starts and jobs info
    http://www.realestateconsulting.com/content/MetroStats
    For the population, go to OFM

  54. 54
    Jonness says:

    Even though I predicted a few months back we would see a Spring bounce in either this or next month’s CS, I’m still surprised by the bounce. My more recent outlook has been for a definite drop, especially since we are looking at a 3 month average.

    Despite the apparent strength displayed in the CS flatline, this is the worst RE market I’ve seen since the calamity began. Next month should be equally interesting.

  55. 55
    Aaron says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21 – This blog needs Facebook-style “like” buttons.

  56. 56
    deejayoh says:

    Interesting take on this from Altos Research, informed by the present…

    How to Interpret Today’s S&P Case Shiller Home Price Report

    The headlines are roaring today. Double Dip! Foreclosures! Worse than expected! The S&P Case Shiller Index came in lower than the bottom of 2009. Here’s the thing, home price trends are only worse than expected if your expectations are uninformed.

    Today’s Case Shiller headline was visible in November.

    In November we did a tour of our Wall Street clients. Boy were we bearish. Asking prices were down hard after the tax credit ended in 2Q 2010. Newly listed properties ticked lower week after week. We told clients to expect cratering through the first quarter of 2011. It was obvious we were heading lower than the worst of the bursting bubble in March of 2009. After November, we like to point out, the first inkling of home price trends for 2011 would be the second week of February.

    Home prices bottomed in March 2011 before their spring bounce and are up 8% off the lows.

    Sure enough, by mid-February, the weeklies started bouncing positive. Like the Case Shiller, we use a 90-day rolling average to smooth out the noise, so the headline numbers transition more slowly. Unlike the Case Shiller, our data comes out immediately. In March the rate of decline slowed, by April of this year we were showing flat monthly, last month our May data ticked up.

    Here’s what we’re saying about the housing market right now

    We now have June and it’s up again. Our June 2011 Real-time Real Estate Market Report will be out in a few days with details. Look for the July or August 2011 release of the S&P Case Shiller index to report it’s first month over month increase in a year. But by then, we’ll probably be back in seasonal home price decline. Register to get the report each month and stay ahead of the headlines.

  57. 57
    deejayoh says:

    By Jonness @ 54:

    Even though I predicted a few months back we would see a Spring bounce in either this or next month’s CS, I’m still surprised by the bounce. My more recent outlook has been for a definite drop, especially since we are looking at a 3 month average.

    Despite the apparent strength displayed in the CS flatline, this is the worst RE market I’ve seen since the calamity began. Next month should be equally interesting.

    According to my buddy over at Altos, March data was the low month for the season – and he has a whole lot more data on hand than any of us

    http://blog.altosresearch.com/how-to-interpret-todays-sp-case-shiller-home-price-report/

    Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

    The headlines are roaring today. Double Dip! Foreclosures! Worse than expected! The S&P Case Shiller Index came in lower than the bottom of 2009. Here’s the thing, home price trends are only worse than expected if your expectations are uninformed.

    Today’s Case Shiller headline was visible in November.

    In November we did a tour of our Wall Street clients. Boy were we bearish. Asking prices were down hard after the tax credit ended in 2Q 2010. Newly listed properties ticked lower week after week. We told clients to expect cratering through the first quarter of 2011. It was obvious we were heading lower than the worst of the bursting bubble in March of 2009. After November, we like to point out, the first inkling of home price trends for 2011 would be the second week of February.

    Home prices bottomed in March 2011 before their spring bounce and are up 8% off the lows.

    Sure enough, by mid-February, the weeklies started bouncing positive. Like the Case Shiller, we use a 90-day rolling average to smooth out the noise, so the headline numbers transition more slowly. Unlike the Case Shiller, our data comes out immediately. In March the rate of decline slowed, by April of this year we were showing flat monthly, last month our May data ticked up.

    Here’s what we’re saying about the housing market right now

    We now have June and it’s up again. Our June 2011 Real-time Real Estate Market Report will be out in a few days with details. Look for the July or August 2011 release of the S&P Case Shiller index to report it’s first month over month increase in a year. But by then, we’ll probably be back in seasonal home price decline. Register to get the report each month and stay ahead of the headlines.

  58. 58
    David Losh says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 56

    Altos is another Real Estate sales data site.

    A Windermere agent used a great term that I really like, and is very true. He said “The Crate and Barrel Real Estate is selling well, but if anything needs even a little bit of work it just sits there.”

    He’s right that the stuff online Brokerage cream themselves over is selling well with multiple offers. The houses with the designer staging, granite, and stainless steel look like a bargain compared to last year.

    All in all I don’t see the “data” to support the price of residential housing units.

  59. 59
    deejayoh says:

    By David Losh @ 57:

    RE: deejayoh @ 56 – All in all I don’t see the “data” to support the price of residential housing units.

    Case Shiller data (the subject of this post) is for March. Altos has data for April. and May. Just to make clear the point I was making. I am not expecting it to land with you.

  60. 60
    David Losh says:

    RE: deejayoh @ 59

    It doesn’t. It’s just more hype in a muddled Real Estate market place.

    This is tech crowd attempted manipulation. It has nothing to do with anything. It’s sales data. It’s a tool Real Estate agents use to create an urgency.

    However, that sales data is only useful for a specific location.

    Altos, the same as Case Schiller is meaningless because it is a broad area.

  61. 61
    Macro Investor says:

    There has obviously been some pent up demand that is supporting local prices right now. We’ve seen it in some of the earlier threads. Quite a few readers bought houses the last 6 months. The most common reason was, we just got tired of waiting. In other words, impatience.

    The question is, will that impatience work out, or will it come back to bite them? The economic data has been hashed and re-hashed. I won’t repeat all that. Except to say it’s getting worse again, after a year of slight improvement.

    My guess is people spending their down payment savings this year will be sorry they did. They’ll be stuck with someone else’s money pit. I believe those who remain patient will be the last ones standing with a cash balance when prices really become attractive.

  62. 62
    Jonness says:

    By deejayoh @ 57:

    According to my buddy over at Altos, March data was the low month for the season – and he has a whole lot more data on hand than any of us

    I’ve been expecting the typical Spring bounce, but I didn’t expect a Seattle price increase until next month at the earliest. However, I agree with your friend at Altos, once the season ends, we will continue back down.

    I suspect the extremely low mortgage rates are getting people off the fence right now, and we will see this in the data as we move forward. If rates move up later in the year, I don’t foresee a lot of buyers rushing in.

    The economy is hitting a soft patch right as QE2 is coming to an end. All eyes are on the GOP and the Fed.

  63. 63
    Matthew says:

    MOM? YAWN. Spring Bounce? YAWN.

    Wake me up when we see a YOY increase please.

  64. 64

    […] 3,390 pageviews, 05/31: Case-Shiller: Seattle Gets a Teeny Tiny Spring Bounce […]

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