Mid-Week Open Thread (2011-07-13)

Here is your open thread for the mid-week on July 13th, 2011. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

23 comments:

  1. 1
    Pegasus says:

    Bernanke down on housing, admits more securities purchases possible

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is not ruling out additional securities purchases by the central bank as stubbornly high unemployment, a soft economy depress housing demand and stall economic recovery.

    “Residential construction activity remains at an extremely low level,” Bernanke told the House Committee on Financial Services Wednesday. “The demand for homes has been depressed by many of the same factors that have held down consumer spending more generally, including the slowness of the recovery in jobs and income as well as poor consumer sentiment.”

    Bernanke says access to credit and unstable home prices are stifling a recovery in the real estate economy.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2011/07/13/bernanke-down-on-housing-admits-more-securities-purchases-possible

  2. 2
    bingo says:

    “The Tim”,

    You’re on a blogoshpere roll! Being the stat man that you are…how many 100+ comment topics have you had in the last 2 months compared to the prior 2 years?

  3. 3
    The Tim says:

    RE: bingo @ 2 – Here are the most-commented posts: https://seattlebubble.com/blog/most-commented-posts/

    If you exclude the long-running economic and health care open threads, you’re left with 11 posts with 200 or more comments. Of those, 3 are from the last two months, 1 is from 2010, 4 are from 2009, and 3 are from 2008.

  4. 4
    numbermonkey says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 1

    I like the bit about ‘poor consumer sentiment’.

  5. 5
    Pegasus says:

    By numbermonkey @ 4:

    RE: Pegasus @ 1

    I like the bit about ‘poor consumer sentiment’.

    Did you see the clip out there were Ron Paul goes after Bernanke? Asks what we got for 5.3 trillion dollars. Says the consumer would be better off if we had given that money directly to everyone, $17,000 per person.

  6. 6
    Pegasus says:

    One million foreclosures delayed to 2012 or later: RealtyTrac

    This is not good for real estate prices.

    “Processing problems at the major mortgage servicers pushed up to 1 million foreclosure actions that should have taken place in 2011 into 2012 and beyond, according to RealtyTrac.”

    “Processing and procedural delays are pushing foreclosures further and further out,” Saccaccio said. “This casts an ominous shadow over the housing market, where recovery is unlikely to happen until the current and forthcoming inventory of distressed properties can be whittled down to a manageable number.”

    http://www.housingwire.com/2011/07/13/one-million-foreclosures-delayed-to-2012-or-later-realtytrac

  7. 7
    Pegasus says:

    20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling

    Shilling says the shock to trigger the next recess is “another big leg-down in housing.” (An asset class the Fed has not been able to reflate.) As those familiar with Shilling know, his forecasts are generally bearish. However, in his defense, Shilling was one of the few economists who correctly predicted the dangers of the subprime mortgage market and its impact on the broader economy.

    The problem with the real estate market remains excess inventory. Based on Shilling’s research, there are 2 million to 2.5 million excess homes in the country — a supply that will take 4-5 years to work-off. The result: Housing prices will fall another 20% and underwater mortgages will balloon from 23% to 40%, he says.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/20-drop-housing-cause-recession-2012-says-gary-161445494.html;_ylt=Au6DA0ePx60YA41PTgvRux67YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFjbWE0NmNnBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNGUERhaWx5VGlja2VyQmxvZwRzbGsDaG91c2luZ3dvZXN0

  8. 8

    By Pegasus @ 5:

    By numbermonkey @ 4:

    RE: Pegasus @ 1

    I like the bit about ‘poor consumer sentiment’.

    Did you see the clip out there were Ron Paul goes after Bernanke? Asks what we got for 5.3 trillion dollars. Says the consumer would be better off if we had given that money directly to everyone, $17,000 per person.

    Only if you don’t consider the lost earnings from massive layoffs and the lost wealth from a total stock market collapse.

    Only politicians could possibly think you could spend billions of dollars (or more) and not have an impact on anything. Actually, they probably don’t believe that, but just can’t pass up the good sound bite.

  9. 9

    RE: Pegasus @ 6 – Part of that is Washington’s new Foreclosure Fairness Act. It wouldn’t surprise me that we aren’t the only state with that type of legislation, which makes the process take longer. It’s also why you’re seeing a drop in some of the foreclosure numbers in the last report.

  10. 10

    By Pegasus @ 7:

    The problem with the real estate market remains excess inventory. Based on Shilling’s research, there are 2 million to 2.5 million excess homes in the country — a supply that will take 4-5 years to work-off.

    What Phoenix needs is a good Tsunami! ;-)

  11. 11
    Pegasus says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:

    RE: Pegasus @ 6 – Part of that is Washington’s new Foreclosure Fairness Act. It wouldn’t surprise me that we aren’t the only state with that type of legislation, which makes the process take longer. It’s also why you’re seeing a drop in some of the foreclosure numbers in the last report.

    The act is only about mediation and if the homeowner chooses it the foreclosure might be delayed by 60 days unless the bank chooses to modify the loan. It isn’t in effect yet. July 22 is the date. The real delay is the forged and robosigned paperwork and how to clean it up when you destroyed the original documents or did not record the assignments properly thus precluding the foreclosers from proving standing. Its a huge mess with ever increasing litigation. Even with the media and tracking firms still calling it “mishandling” instead of calling what it really is it isn’t going away anytime soon.

  12. 12
    Dave Francis says:

    This might be way off topic, but I was home the other day and watched a film called “The Road” which was a post apocolyptic film that really made me think. I do not understand all politics, but more and more people are fearing a complete collapse of the economy, and our own newer version of the great depression. The film reminded me to be greatful for what we all have, and to be prepared for any eventuality….it is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0898367/ PS. I have been in the escrow game here for about 10 years, and I thought this film accurately portrayed what my office looks like lately….sad, but keeping the faith.

  13. 13
    Blurtman says:

    Bush and Paulson order an official no prosecution of Wall Street fraud policy in the summer of 2008.

    At 6:32 in the story: http://www.npr.org/2011/07/13/137789065/why-prosecutors-dont-go-after-wall-street

  14. 14
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 13

    Completely bogus. Laws can be changed at any time. If the current crop of politicians wanted to go after one group or another they would make it happen. The problems we have are now, with the current group.

  15. 15
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 14 – I would say it is a continuation of the same Bush/Paulson policies under Obama/Geithner, as it was with the TARP. Later in the story Geithner is implicated as advising a go softly stance on prosecuting Wall Street fraud when he was the head of the Ny Fed . Or course, Bush/Paulson were still the crime family heads at the time. Do you honestly think that Paulson was unaware of the fraud that was occurring at Goldman Sachs during his leadership? And are you still driving around with that W bumper sticker on your Escalade pick up truck?

  16. 16
    softwarengineer says:

    Political Bumper Stickers

    I noticed a lack of bumper stickers last presidential election for either candidate and the few that put them on and still have them on their cars, display them in lack of enthusiam I imagine.

  17. 17
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 15

    I think we need a clean sweep and some real change this next time around.

  18. 18

    Seattle is special!

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015614960_parking15m.html

    Sixth highest median parking rates in the nation. I wonder how that list compares to the list of cities for median house price?

  19. 19
    Macro Investor says:

    By Scotsman @ 17:

    RE: Blurtman @ 15

    I think we need a clean sweep and some real change this next time around.

    I hope that was sarcasm. No democrat or republican will ever reform this system. They are one in the same. Any differences are purely for show. You have the corporations/lobbyists, politicians and media all working together in one huge corrupt sewer. The only clean sweep would be an atomic bomb over DC.

  20. 20

    By Macro Investor @ 19:

    By Scotsman @ 17:

    RE: Blurtman @ 15

    I think we need a clean sweep and some real change this next time around.

    I hope that was sarcasm. No democrat or republican will ever reform this system. They are one in the same. Any differences are purely for show. You have the corporations/lobbyists, politicians and media all working together in one huge corrupt sewer.

    Except for the part I didn’t quote, I would agree.

    I had hoped that the Tea Party would allow the Republican party to move to the center, and then we’d finally have a three party system. Unfortunately I think the Tea Party will self-destruct because people will realize their positions are so extreme that they are moronic (light bulbs and not extending the debt ceiling under any circumstances).

  21. 21
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20 – Kary, what is moronic about wanting to continue to use an invention that has been serving humanity very well for 130 years now? In colder climates such as ours, any “lost” efficiency of the incandescent bulb is not lost, but instead is used to keep the house warm. And since my gas and electricity are supplied by the same company, switching to CFL bulbs only serves to tilt my energy useage slightly from electricity to gas, while trashing the environment of China and the landfills of America.

    Note: I have CFL bulbs all over my house, only because I can get them cheap at Costco (usually subsidized by my energy supply company). Their life is not much longer than regular bulbs, so I end up buying them in bulk. I seem to be getting about 1000-1500 hours per bulb which is much less than the 8000-10000 hours of advertised life.

  22. 22

    RE: redmondjp @ 21 – As I understand the regs, Halogen will still be available for those who want the incandescent system, and they are making those with the standard base. They aren’t that more efficient than regular bulbs, but they should satisfy the die-hards.

    Energy use is a problem because it requires more generation capacity and transmission lines, if nothing else.

  23. 23
    The Tim says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 21 & Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – Whatever they’re doing, they better not outlaw 40W A15 appliance bulbs. I need my lava lamps, and their proper operation depends on the “inefficiency” of incandescents.

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