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Case-Shiller: Spring Bounce Continues Slightly Weakened

Posted on July 26, 2011 by The Tim

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to May data,

Up 1.1% April to May.
Down 7.0% YOY.
Down 29.0% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices rose 1.2% from April to May and year-over-year prices were down 1.4% (the closest they have been to zero since the peak).

Despite a continued seasonal bump in Seattle home prices, the year-over-year change fell slightly from last month, since this year’s May change was not as strong as last year’s.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Powered by Tableau

Washington DC is still the only city still in positive YOY territory, but thanks to spring, all but three cities showed month-over-month growth. Only Tampa, Las Vegas, and Detroit continued to lose ground.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In May, thirteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops than Seattle (or saw year-over-year increases):

  • Washington, DC at +1.3%
  • Boston at -3.2%
  • Los Angeles at -3.2%
  • New York at -3.2%
  • Denver at -3.3%
  • Atlanta at -4.6%
  • Dallas at -4.7%
  • San Diego at -5.1%
  • Charlotte at -5.1%
  • Miami at -5.3%
  • San Francisco at -5.4%
  • Cleveland at -6.6%
  • Las Vegas at -6.6%

Falling faster than Seattle as of May: Chicago, Portland, Detroit, Tampa, Phoenix, and Minneapolis.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through May.

Powered by Tableau

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the forty-six months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 29.0%, slightly less than last month, up off the low again. Just two more months until the four-year anniversary of Seattle’s peak.

Here’s the “rewind” chart, to show you how much was gained, and then given back up over the last six-plus years:

Case-Shiller HPI: Seattle Rewind

The blue line on August 2005 represents the month that this site launched. As of May 2011, there have effectively been zero price gains since October 2004.

For posterity, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. Portland improved slightly, but everyone else continued to get worse on this chart. Year-over-year, Portland came in at -9.1%, Los Angeles at -3.2%, and San Diego at -5.1%.

I think this graph is still worth posting if only to display how the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow, causing all the markets to rise simultaneously, and once the artificial support was removed, to come crashing back down to reality simultaneously.

Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast

Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 07.26.2010)

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Foreclosures Establishing an Elevated Flatline
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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Still Immune to Spring

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