New King County Econ Blog: Housing is Risky, not Lousy

I received an email yesterday from Tom Goodwin, King County’s Chief Economist, pointing me toward a new blog that he has started to discuss economic issues in King County. The first topic: real estate.

In his post, Is a Home a "Lousy" Investment? Tom takes on the recent Wall Street Journal piece A Home Is a Lousy Investment, arguing that this view is too simplistic.

Tom’s 1,300-word post includes everything we love here at Seattle Bubble: graphs, tables, and detailed criticisms of underlying assumptions. His conclusion is sound, as well:

…homeowner equity with a mortgage is an attractive but risky investment, in some ways more risky that the stock market because a family can lose all of their equity. As with the stock market, deciding whether it would be a good investment depends crucially on how long the family can hold onto the investment.

Of course, even buyers that plan to hold for a long time were making horrible investments in 2006 and 2007, but for a more “normal” market, I think Tom’s analysis is fair.

Head on over to the new blog, read the whole post, and drop them a comment. It’s good to see more level-headed local commentary on these types of issues. Best of luck, Tom!

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    MacroInvestor says:

    If that’s the money quote, I’ll pass thank you. Anybody writing for King County or any other gov entity should be assumed in support of the status quo until proven otherwise.

    If he has the gumption, let’s see him comment here and take the heat.

  2. 2
    Pegasus says:

    By MacroInvestor @ 1:

    If that’s the money quote, I’ll pass thank you. Anybody writing for King County or any other gov entity should be assumed in support of the status quo until proven otherwise.

    If he has the gumption, let’s see him comment here and take the heat.

    I agree but let’s have him post on the Weekly Twitter Digest where he help stop Kary from torturing Ardell and David endlessly with useless banter. Better still maybe Kary can find something to torture him about.

  3. 3
    Real World Express says:

    You know when I read all these business essays about the DOW and real estate and the rest, one phrase keeps coming to mind. Split milk.

    I mean, it’s over. Housing is not an investment. DOW stocks and mutuals are not an investment. At best, they may do as well a passbook savings account…but the risk is you’ll lose 10 or 20 percent or more.

    Gold? Yep…I know what will pop the gold bubble. If I were to buy one share of a gold fund, it would go down. It’s always that way. If I had bought Apple would I be a millionaire? No. Because if I bought it, it would go down. Reason, because I’m an average person, and all these computers are sitting around trying to figure out what average people do so their owners can take their money.

    Maybe there’s some investment out there that would actually make us some money. I might have even found a few which I’ll keep to myself. But I don’t cry….over split milk.

  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    It’s a great time to buy- prices are much more affordable, business in the Puget Sound region is stable (maybe even special), interest rates are at record 50 year lows, sellers are ready to deal, realtors are standing by (or around). Get on the computer, find a home, get out those checkbooks!

    Scotsman- leading the new bullishness! Or bull something. . . ;-)

  5. 5
    HappyRenter says:

    My wife and me plan to move to a bigger rental home, which of course will be more expensive, but we need at least one additional bedroom. We have put off the purchase of a home for another 1-2 years, mainly for personal reasons and because of still dropping home prices.

    I have been wondering whether rental prices in Seattle will go up this fall and whether we should make our decision about moving soon, or rather wait until late in the fall hoping that rents might be cheaper after UW students have moved in? We are looking for something in NE Seattle where a lot of rentals are inhabited by students.


  6. 6
    Pegasus says:

    This guy is making the same argument about leverage and real estate that local guru Wade Cook made. Wade eventually went bankrupt following his own advice. Years later he surfaced touting stock investments. Unfortunately that didn’t work out too well either as he and his wife were sent off to prison.

    Tom Goodwin claims his blog is Independent commentary on current economic conditions, policies, and controversies. I sincerely doubt that with Tom being an employee of King County. The county wants nothing but rising real estate prices, happy real estate agents and ridiculous property taxes to fund the great whale of senseless employees, benefits and pet projects. forgot to deduct property taxes and upkeep from your example. You are also comparing leveraged real estate to unleveraged stocks. You can leverage stocks too Tom thru margin and derivatives. I am beginning to think you were the one that did the math on the various boondoggle projects in the county. Was it your idea to bailout Metro with the $20.00 tabs Tom? I guess the fact that the employee pensions, benefits, etc are bloated never crossed anyone’s mind when they could stick it to the public?

    What will your next blog be about…pet licenses? I am sure you can justify the enormous price tag for those…keeping King County employees working and giving tickets to the public? Maybe you can tell us how they are a better investment than stocks.

  7. 7

    Pegasus, just because something requires a reading ability over the sixth grade level, such that it is too confusing for you to understand it, it doesn’t mean that something is useless banter. It just means it’s over your head.

    I’m sorry if you can’t figure out what a thread is about when it’s clear from the first two posts. But I realize it was very very confusing. Two whole different entities (DOL and NWMSL) and two parties (Hellicksons and an unnamed agent). All just so very very confusing. Sort of like when you find yourself in a paper bag and need to get out. That confusing!

  8. 8
    david losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7

    This is more to the point. These types of comments have gotten to be your debate style.

  9. 9
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 – Too bad you can’t keep your stories straight. Too many lies, too many times. What a plight for a baloney spreader like you. Busted again and again and too stupid and egotistical to move forward. You babble on incessantly unable to stop making a fool out of yourself. That was just proven on the Twitter thread with you always trying to have the last post for days even though what you were posting was nonsense. Get some mental counseling, you definitely need it. You sound like a manic in a rubber room. Froot Loops!

  10. 10
    3rd Generation says:

    Real World Express
    August 18, 2011 at 1:48 pm | Permalink
    “You know when I read all these business essays about the DOW and real estate and the rest, one phrase keeps coming to mind. Split milk.”

    Please help me on this. What is ‘Split milk’ ?

    Does that come from those irradiated Enumclaw cows?

  11. 11
    Chuck in GH says:

    They sell it at the grocery store – I think it’s called Half and Half :-)

  12. 12
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Pegasus @ 2

    He doesn’t torture us…but he is tortuous. :) …and he loves a good twist of a word now and then.

  13. 13
    Jonness says:

    By 3rd Generation @ 10:

    Please help me on this. What is ‘Split milk’ ?

    Does that come from those irradiated Enumclaw cows?

    Only people in Seattle who have bought homes since 2002 know the meaning of split milk. It’s when you normally would have drank a 16 oz glass by yourself, but because your mortgage payment is coming up in two weeks, you decide to split the milk between you, your wife, your four kids, and your aging grandparents.

    You see, a home really is a good investment as long as you know how to split the milk. A mortgage payment amounting to 50% of your gross household income is no big deal. Buy now or be priced out forever! Don’t listen to these fools going into default on their mortgages in record numbers. These people did not know how to split the milk!

  14. 14
    CCG says:

    Hilarious. The Wall Street Journal, bringing you yesterday’s news tomorrow.

    Outside the blogosphere, the only people I know of to call this in a timely fashion were Robert Shiller and the Economist (which ran a cover picture of a falling brick labeled “house prices” in 2005). The rest were just cheerleaders, and investors read them at their own financial peril. Heck, Kudlow was laughing about how “housing bears are wrong again” and Cramer was demanding to know when housing bears were going to “get their comeuppance”. Since he wasn’t fired for all the poor slobs who listened to him and took a bath, I guess comeuppances are just for the little people.

  15. 15
    CCG says:

    RE: Real World Express @ 3

    It is looking pretty extended here. However I said that about a week ago, too.

    Sustained positive real interest rates would kill the gold bull for good, but suggesting an end to the War on Savers would be career suicide in D.C.

  16. 16
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Jonness @ 13

    We’re not back to 2002 in areas where I work. Are you seeing 2002 prices where you are?

    One of the 30 sold in 30 built in 2002 has this history:

    2002: $373,000
    2004: $439,000
    2007: $640,000
    7/2011: $540,000

    Good recap of prices. 2011 Sold Price is Up 45% from 2002. Down 16% from Peak. This house is in Redmond.

  17. 17
    Ray Pepper says:

    I don’t know about you all but I love the Bashing. Makes it more fun for the reader. Lets see here:

    Pegasus v. Kary
    Kary v. Ardell
    Dave Losh v…..hmmm I guess its Kary now. I thought it was Ardell..

    Also that guy that bashes Tim relentlessly for his house purchase and all that pedophile stuff. Forgot who that was but it always makes me laugh when he chimes in or gets faded to white on his remarks. BTW Tim maybe its me but when you fade peoples remarks to white it draws just so much more attention because I know someones being a bad boy or girl.

    I also find myself salivating to slam Marc, Craig, and my favorite Steve Tytler and (his broker friend in Az who doesn’t complain and continues to pay on his house owing 500k and has a value of 200k!!) Gotta love educated friends like that. Just something about Attorney’s showing homes while trying to charge 75.00 an hour that I find hysterical.

    We are very lucky Tim is as hard-working as a dairy cow and bringing the Bubble to us everyday:

  18. 18
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Any analysis that forgets to account for the 10% cost to sell a home is invalid.

  19. 19
    MichaelB says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 17

    Ray, I know I gave Tim a hard time. But really… isn’t it kind of funny that a guy would call the end of the bubble half way down by purchasing a home just before the 2nd Great Depression in a location where the next Everett riots are likely to occur? Laugh till you cry, man…

    And Kary K…..what a character! No sense of humor and winks more than Sarah Palin.. Is he a lawyer who sells real estate? or a real estate agent with a law hobby? He should be on “The People’s Court – Real Estate” .”..Judge Krismer…how do you rule?”

    (Hope I don’t get faded to white this time as it really hurts my feelings)

  20. 20
    Hugh Dominic says:

    I just read the WSJ article and it is way, way better than the blog post. The blog post is flawed, by the way, because the WSJ article did indeed account for leverage (20% down). But best of all it slams housing stimulus gimmicks and says this:

    A nation of house buyers becomes captive to the economic cyclicality caused by bursts of construction activity, and it is not lifted or sustained by the limited levels of service employment related to existing housing. By contrast, a nation of business startups and investors supports our capital markets and creates long-term employment, income, exports and the myriad technological advancements desperately needed by an expanding American society.

    New home construction and the markets for existing homes should be recognized as activities secondary to, and dependent on, employment. Healthy job markets create healthy property markets, not the reverse.


  21. 21

    RE: Pegasus @ 9 – No, Pegasus, you were simply unable to understand. You thought low prices were a good thing because you don’t understand real estate. Newsflash: The Tim excludes active short sales listings from his low price houses series because it’s very likely you won’t be able to buy the house for the price listed. Listing short sale houses at too low of a price deceives buyers! Maybe if I had used the term “fraud” you would have understood. It’s a consumer issue, and that’s why the DOL and NWMLS punish agents who regularly price short sales too low.

    And then you have Dave and Ardell making all sorts of claims about how I am wrong based on their having more experience with short sales. Let’s see how Pegasus works. I say how many complaints were filed against Hellicksons with the DOL and NWMLS, and you call those “lies” even though the information is available in a link I provide. But Dave and Ardell claim to be experienced in short sales, fail to respond to repeated requests about their experience (something I can pull but consumers can’t), and where is Pegasus? Totally silent. Apparently you like being mislead and people misleading others–which explains why you like Inside Job.

  22. 22
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21 – More than a little distortion going on here, Kary. I never said anything about the Hellicksons. You made that up. You LIED about it. You lost your self in your baloney and started trying to cover it up with erratic posts that had nothing to do with my posts. That’s the facts Jack. Glad to see you back on your clowncycle riding in circles blowing your horn trying to be noticed. We love being entertained by the fool.

  23. 23
    david losh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 17

    No Ray, it’s you, you’re the one! Life would be perfect if it wasn’t for you, and 500 Realty!

    Ever day I wear my form fitting 500 Realty T shirt, it truly is slimming, and people make fun of me because I don’t have the hoody to match.

    Ray, you promised to get 500 Realty hoodies, and you never did! I won’t forget Ray! You promised to get the hoodies. It’s just typical Real Estate broker BS, promising one thing, then never following through.

    It’s getting cold out Ray.

  24. 24
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: MichaelB @ 19

    Yes, MichaelB its YOU I was talking about.

    I never got faded to white but I would wear it with a badge of honor. They are ALWAYS the most interesting, comical, or intriguing posts here on The Bubble. In fact I would guess 1 in a 1000 posts get faded to white so you are a rarity.

    The highlighted ones seem to always be Tim or cheerleading for Craig/Marc so they draw my attention in salivation mode and PURE titillation. Personally, I can’t get enough of Attorney’s Craig and Marc because I know their sheer existence and model of real estate will be of limited duration but I like to see the EFFORT. They will see the light after many more “burdensome” clients, banks, sale fails, and will realize living off commissions and hourly fees is no way to make money in the future of real estate sales. With the sheer GLUT of Attorneys and the pressure of student loan debts they will ALL soon be frantic joining the likes of stock brokers. The pride a Lawyer will have in his Law Degree this coming decade will be parallel with that of a Real Estate Agent and their license hanging on the wall. Both as equally worthless as once shining companies,,,, and

    Its also very unfortunate we do NOT see Steve Tytler anymore from Best Mortgage. Also, that Mack “don’t mess with me Ray” real estate Agent would be great for sheer comedic value.


  25. 25

    RE: Pegasus @ 22 – Just another example of you not knowing what you’re talking about. You responded to a post discussing the Hellickson matter. See posts 15 and 18 in that other thread.

    You just throw around terms like fraud and lies, etc. to get attention. You responded to something I said about the DOL case. That was Hellickson. You didn’t know what you were talking about, again.

    Again, I know that having two entities and two different parties is very very confusing for someone of your limited mental capacity. So so very very confusing.

  26. 26
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: david losh @ 23

    We haven’t ordered a new batch…We haven’t done The Seattle Home Show or Puyallup Fair in a while and I do have a list of people waiting for them. We are sold out since I traded with Red Fin our last shirt.

    Yes, they are VERY form fitting and make everyone look younger and feel more spry.

    Hmmm…With all this demand maybe we should sell them on the website along with hats and other garments? Just a thought………….Our screenprinter went belly up 2 years ago so I need to locate another distributor…

    So much to do….so little time…Were rolling out the video again on CNBC soon so you can at least look forward to this wrapped around Kramer and Fast Money:

  27. 27
    David Losh says:

    Don’t mess with me Ray!

    Everybody knows you promised the hoodies over a year ago. It’s all I ever hear about any more. The 500 Realty T shirts are selling on E Bay, so I don’t see why the Hoodies wouldn’t. I’d probably pay as much as $5 for one.

    There’s a silk screener who does all the campaign signs. I just asked for a quote. He’s on 15th NE and about 105th, by Northgate. They have down time in November and the prices are lower after the election season. I’ll get the name and number then post it.

  28. 28
    ARDELL says:

    “New home construction and the markets for existing homes should be recognized as activities secondary to, and dependent on, employment. Healthy job markets create healthy property markets, not the reverse.”

    “Any analysis that forgets to account for the 10% cost to sell a home is invalid.”

    I agree with both of the above statements and add any analysis that forgets to account for the cost to keep the property healthy is invalid. A portion of market price erosion lies in the erosion of value caused by lack of proper maintenance and repair…or even a minimum standard of ordinary care.

    One of the reasons short sales and bank owned property sells at a higher discount from FMV is that they have not followed the main rule of life: “Leave a place better than you found it.” While Case Schiller is careful not to include homes that have been improved (i.e. flip properties) they are not accounting for those at the opposite end of the spectrum that were destroyed in short order after purchase.

    That is why it is important to note the breakdown of a home’s value components when you buy it. It is harder to significantly destroy the value of your home if you bought it close to lot value than if you bought it at a price over weighted toward the improvements.

    I recently showed a property where the price is inflated 15% to 20% due to “pride of ownership abounds” features. Landscaping, pristine maintenance inside and out. At least 10% of that over pricing is related to the landscaping and rear deck features. A new owner who pretty much stays in their house and just mows the grass can easily lose that 10% by doing nothing but living in the house for 3 years.

    When people are starry eyed about their home gaining a lot in value, they spend a lot of time and money on upkeep. When they are convinced the value will go down due to economic forces beyond their control, no matter what they do, they tend to spend very little on home maintenance, repair and updating. That quickly fuels a market that is heading down 15% into one heading down 25% or more.

    If a homeowner is underwater by 15%, does he want to spend $12,000 for a new roof? $7,000 on an exterior paint job? $20,000 on rotting deck and fence issues? Once a home is running in the red as to value due to market conditions…it begins a slippery slope of value erosion caused by lack of maintenance and repair.

  29. 29

    By ARDELL @ 28:

    While Case Schiller is careful not to include homes that have been improved (i.e. flip properties) they are not accounting for those at the opposite end of the spectrum that were destroyed in short order after purchase..

    I think they do try to exclude both, it’s just that it’s hard to do without seeing the property. I’m pretty sure that they assume if the price drops or rises more than they would have expected, that it’s due to a change in condition. The problem is though that if you have an area with a large amount of REOs and short sales, that becomes more difficult to determine at the low end.

  30. 30
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29

    I do think this issue also contributes to the lower tier performance numbers being weaker in the Case Schiller analysis. People often ask why the lowest price tier numbers are always the weakest. A new heater or new hot water tank or new roof or wood rot repair and replacement, pretty much cost the same for a lower tier house as a mid to upper tier house of the same size in a higher priced neighborhood.

    When $15,000 of repairs are needed for two similar houses in different price markets, those same repairs on that same house equal a 10% reduction in price on a home valued at $150,000 vs a 3% negative on the same home in a market where it sells for $500,000.

    Also, the tighter credit standard of getting a home equity loan to finance a new roof in any price range, makes for a lot more new roofs being needed as each year passes with no housing recovery to pay for that new roof via a home equity loan.

  31. 31

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 24
    If I recall an earlier conversation I had w/ you, I don’t think it was ” Don’t mess with me, Ray”, but rather a different word than “mess”, one that rhymes with truck.

  32. 32

    RE: David Losh @ 27 – I guess I don’t understand real estate. What part of being in real estate means that you wear the promotional products of competitors, and then badgering them for even more? Do you wear Ray’s t-shirt in to your office at Skyline? ;-)

  33. 33
    Jonness says:

    By ARDELL @ 16:

    RE: Jonness @ 13

    We’re not back to 2002 in areas where I work. Are you seeing 2002 prices where you are?

    One of the 30 sold in 30 built in 2002 has this history:

    2002: $373,000
    2004: $439,000
    2007: $640,000
    7/2011: $540,000

    Good recap of prices. 2011 Sold Price is Up 45% from 2002. Down 16% from Peak. This house is in Redmond.

    Hmmmm…so it looks like we have another 30% lower to go before homes are reasonably priced in Redmond. The poor idiot that paid $540K for that house is going to regret it just as bad as all the other fools who’ve bought from 2004 till now. What are these low-IQ’d idiots thinking? Can’t they take a look at the macro economy and realize something really terrible is taking place? This is not rocket science folks. Keep your money in your pants (unless you do your analysis and find it’s cheaper to buy than rent).

    Every economist and their dog is revising their Q1 2012 GDP forecasts down to zero to 1% growth. The banks refuse to lend to homeless strawberry pickers. Just where is all the money going to come to pay 30% more for homes than their historical value?

    Pink ponies abound. You’d think these idiots could learn from history as opposed to continually repeating it. How many times have I heard these mindless idiots going on about how interest rates are low, so you better buy now, we’ve reached bottom, blah, blah, blah?

    Mortgage rates today with my lender are 3.875% on a 30-year fixed with 0 points. Bernanke has pledged to keep rates low until 2013. His next program will be QE2.5, which directly addresses lowering the yield curve.

    Please people, stop with this nonsense and admit we are caught in a terrible economic trap from which we won’t emerge for years. House prices bubbled up to unsustainable levels, and they are currently in the process of unwinding, so buying is extremely risky right now.

  34. 34
    Jonness says:

    BTW baby boomers, now that you’ve lost hundreds of thousands of dollars from your home purchases bought with zero common sense or mathematical ability, how are your 401K’s treating you?

    Stop trusting your government and start paying attention. Otherwise, you’ll soon be eating dog food.

  35. 35
    MichaelB says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 24

    Well said Ray. Not sure about the recommendation for lawyers to go into stockbroking as the finance industry is shrinking in the USA and will probably go over a cliff soon. I would recommend careers in aged care for the lawyers as it provides an excellent opportunity for them to steal jewelry and provide estate management advice.

  36. 36
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Jonness @ 34 – I’m no fan of the “Worst Generation”, but if you think that the Baby Boomers will go down without taking the rest of the country with them, you are sorely mistaken. Ask a Tea Partier if they are willing to take Social Security cuts in the interest of fiscal stability and my point will be made.

  37. 37
    Voight-kampff says:

    Can I just say I love you all!
    Some of my favorite frequent posters devolved into RE cat fights, pissing contests, Great information, blatant self promotion, erroneous information, and a mad max armegeddon-ish doomsday bunker building style extravaganza…
    And IT’S AWESOME!!!
    It is a little oasis in my otherwise hectic day…
    I’m finally going to donate!

  38. 38
    David Losh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 26

    That’s Boruck Silk Screening and Printing

    They do campaign signs. They have been in business for ever and just moved to this new location. After the elections there is a sweet spot of down time when you can get great prices, with high quality work.

  39. 39
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32

    Kary, you have no understanding about anything that goes on here. You’re a mess of deflection, misdirection, and disinformation.

  40. 40

    RE: David Losh @ 39 – David, give it up. If you can’t be specific, just don’t say anything about what I say. The fact that you can’t specifically refute a single thing I say should tell people here a lot.

    BTW, speaking of misinformation, I’m still waiting for you to post for the benefit of others all the short sale experience you have in the past two years. Come on! You were saying that you know a lot about short sales. Tell the people here how much short sale experience you have. Tell them how LITTLE you know!

  41. 41
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 40

    I gotta go to work now. Some of of us are extremely busy. In case you haven’t heard, business is booming.

  42. 42
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 40

    Oh, I’m sorry, was that a little harsh? Were you playing with the NWMLS web site again? Were you thinking that you were stalking me, and I would just kinda roll over?

    Ahhhh, I don’t think so.

  43. 43

    RE: David Losh @ 42 – David, I just don’t like agents deceiving people here. That’s why a couple of months ago I called out Ardell on her listing scheme, where there’s a discount if there is no buyer’s agent. There I asked her to post how many times in the past two years that has occurred. It’s just a scheme to get listings, but consumers don’t know that. And again, in the other thread when you and Ardell were touting all your short sale experience, consumers might not know that you’re totally full of it. So I called both of you out and neither of you has responded. Again, that should speak volumes to the consumers here.

  44. 44
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 43

    It’s been responded to repeatedly for over two weeks.

    You must have no clue what’s happened here to you. You got toasted.

    You were the one who was called out. You faded, faked, and then got slammed.

    For two weeks, maybe more.

  45. 45

    RE: David Losh @ 44 – If that’s how you see it, fine. I’m sure others see it as two agents claiming to be short sale experts being called out as a couple of pretenders, and one of them responding badly to it by creating her own nonsense blog piece after repeated insults just made things worse for her.

  46. 46
    ARDELL says:


    It is customary for two people in a bar fight to “take it out to the street” out of respect for the owner of the bar. This is Tim’s place. His readers are important to him. There are cell phones, there is email, I created a place just for the you and me of it all, via a blog post. That is customary in blogging…taking it out to the street…creating a “smackdown” of its own so that the discussion becomes “on topic” to that side fight. It happens all the time in blogging, and it is the respectful thing to do in consideration of the blog owner.

  47. 47

    RE: ARDELL @ 46 – You really expect me to post on a site where you can insult me and then moderate my responses so that I can’t respond to your insults?

    You really are a piece of work.

  48. 48
    evokanivo says:

    RE: Jonness @ 33

    A lot of people look at the fundamentals and think that prices should fall. But with the Fed likely printing to QE infinity, they may not. Basically the printing presses will run at full speed to 1) minimize the real cost of servicing the national debt and 2) keep housing prices high so that homeowners are not under water and banks stay (sort of) solvent.

    Unless you know when and how quickly the Fed will continue flooding the market and banks with Bernank-bucks, you don’t know where prices will go. If in the next 2 years a dollar buys 1/2 of what it does now, housing prices will look cheap. As a saver, I’m ticked off. I would love to buy a house for 30% off, but I don’t see it in the cards. I suppose I should just take out a bunch of loans like everyone else.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.