Weekly Twitter Digest (Link Roundup) for 2011-10-01

Powered by Twitter Tools

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

19 comments:

  1. 1

    I find it a bit ironic that you put the Hellickson article right above the Redfin agent search feature. You realize that if that had the Redfin search feature been in effect locally two years ago it would have probably been directing a lot of consumers to Hellickson, right?

    The volume of transactions an agent does is not a good indication of the quality of their work. About the only good thing I would see is that consumers could research a listing agent’s experience in short sales, if the Redfin service gives that kind of detail. But other than researching that, I think it would likely lead to a lot of false conclusions. For example, an agent with a lot of transactions might hand off a client to an associate, who may or may not be good. If someone is looking for a listing agent, they might be so busy they don’t respond quickly, if at all, to buyer inquiries. Volume is more a function of marketing than quality.

    Just to put this in context, back when I was practicing bankruptcy law if you went down to the bankruptcy court and determined which attorney in your area was filing the most bankruptcies, you’d probably have ended up with an attorney who wasn’t very good, or who was more interested in filing your case immediately, no matter what the best time to file your case might be.

  2. 2
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1

    If volume is your top criteria, then the robo signer is your best document reviewer.

  3. 3
    Macro Investor says:

    There’s gold nuggets in these articles. Houston, we have another bottom prediction. Liftoff in 3 months:

    “The job engine has really sputtered out, and without jobs, Americans really can’t purchase homes,” said Celia Chen, a housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.

    … Chen expects prices to bottom at the start of 2012.”

  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 3

    At least she can see part of the problem. I have no idea why she thinks things will magically reverse at the end of the year though.

  5. 5
    Jonness says:

    By Scotsman @ 4:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 3

    At least she can see part of the problem. I have no idea why she thinks things will magically reverse at the end of the year though.

    I know exactly why that is. It’s the same reason we’ve had all these crazy bottom calls over the course of the last half decade. When these people were very young, their parents taught them, if they are good, Santa will come down the chimney bearing gifts. And for a time, presents magically appeared under the tree year after year. But eventually, the children learned Santa wasn’t real, and their parents had made the whole thing up.

    But why would parents lie to such extreme and trick poor defenseless little children who had freely given their full innocence and trust to their parents? Isn’t it obvious by now? It’s because the parents wanted to get up late at night and consume the milk and cookies they had supposedly left out for Santa. Yes folks, this horrible recession is all due to the irresistible power of milk and cookies at midnight.

    But a funny thing happened when the kids realized Santa wasn’t real. Since their minds had formed deeply etched neural networks that forced them to expect Santa Clause, magic, and the tooth ferry to save the day, they were forever incapable of thinking anything bad could ever happen to them personally. Since the universe revolves around their personal existence, it was easy to choose a new Santa Clause with a different name, be it god, Uncle Sam, or just mommy and daddy. So even though, to a sane person using common sense, there seems to be no chance in hades we’ll reach a bottom in the housing market on Jan 1, 2012, it certainly seems like it will occur to those who allow their minds to relax and do what they do best, allow the deeply ingrained Santa Clause neural networks to do their thing. And as long as the economy remains strong, these deluded fools will continue to eat. But when thing go haywire, the country will most likely run out of free government cheese.

    Then what?

  6. 6
    Chris says:

    Interesting article in the WSJ this weekend about the rise in deficiency judgments.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572532029526792.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LEADStoryTop

    Although it varies by state, points in the article include:
    – banks generally have 5 to 20 years after a foreclosure to file for deficiency
    – aggressive collection agencies are buying these deficiencies from banks and doing the court filings themselves
    – deficiencies are being settled for less than credit card defaults (2 cents vs. 7 cents on the dollar)
    – 41 states allow some kind of deficiency judgment

    It looks like in WA State, non-judicial foreclosures aren’t generally subject to deficiency judgments. So I doubt this would change a decision to strategically default here. Still, I can’t help but think about someone seeking counsel from Howard Bono and being surprised a year down the road when they’re served with a deficiency judgment.

  7. 7

    RE: Chris @ 6 – It will be an issue here in two situations.

    1. The first forecloses, but there’s a second deed of trust.
    2. The owner does a short sale and the waiver of any balance is not properly documented. I wrote a piece covering that back in March, 2010, where another agent’s client was apparently told by their negotiator that the deficiency was being waived, when it most likely wasn’t.

    http://www.trulia.com/blog/kary_l_krismer/2010/03/short_sales_sellers_need_attorney_representation

  8. 8
    David Losh says:

    RE: Chris @ 6

    Any walk away should be done with a bankruptcy to follow, in my opinion.

  9. 9
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 5

    Free Government Cheese? It’s not free, it’s bought, and paid for at excessive amounts of profit.

    You’re one of those live within your means people. Do you think bankers, financial market analizers, or insurance peddlers are living within thier means?

    What a crock.

    I know you should work your job, save your money, and when the time is right maybe, just maybe, a bank, some place, will be kind enough to give you the gift of a mortgage.

    Never mind that it is all engineered so some one else can live a life style far beyond your comprehension, just do as you are told, keep your head down, and live the quite life of excepting your fate. Your reward will be in heaven.

  10. 10

    By David Losh @ 8:

    RE: Chris @ 6

    Any walk away should be done with a bankruptcy to follow, in my opinion.

    That’s a bit extreme in that if there’s a non-judicial foreclosure and only one deed of trust, there’d likely be nothing house related to discharge.

    Also, there are other options. One of my favorites is that if the debt was incurred prior to marriage, and you’re anywhere near being married three years, in Washington the creditor may be out of luck even if they get a judgment. Such judgments can only be collected from the separate property of the spouse who signed the loan, and so as long as the couple remains married (no divorce, no death), the earnings of the couple will likely be community property and exempt from collection on the judgment.

    http://apps.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=26.16.200

    This is not legal advice. Anyone in similar circumstances should contact an attorney to determine whether or not they should file bankruptcy and whether or not the rule I am mentioning would benefit them.

  11. 11
    John Bailo says:

    1.The last link is invalid…if you can fix, I’d like to read that article.

    2. Have you been taking notice of the efforts to subsidize direct routes from Spokane to CA? They are calling east of the Cascades “Inland Washington”. I sort of like it — wonder if there’s a push to develop rest of state.

  12. 12
    Jonness says:

    By David Losh @ 9:

    RE: Jonness @ 5

    Free Government Cheese? It’s not free, it’s bought, and paid for at excessive amounts of profit.

    You’re one of those live within your means people. Do you think bankers, financial market analizers, or insurance peddlers are living within thier means?

    What a crock.

    I know you should work your job, save your money, and when the time is right maybe, just maybe, a bank, some place, will be kind enough to give you the gift of a mortgage.

    Never mind that it is all engineered so some one else can live a life style far beyond your comprehension, just do as you are told, keep your head down, and live the quite life of excepting your fate. Your reward will be in heaven.

    LOL! Unfortunately, everything you said is true. My role in this crazy game is to keep my mouth shut, work myself to death, and pay taxes along the way. If I’m extra good, work hard, don’t break any laws, and never complain, I will be rewarded with a house, a truck, a boat, a car, an RV, and a mountain of debt. When I almost have it all paid off, I’ll die. Seems worth it doesn’t it? Life as a mindless wage slave that is.

  13. 13
    Scotsman says:

    Anybody up for a betting pool on the number of lawsuits filed against Redfin by the end of October? Seems there are more than few bugs in the new program- and a lot of unhappy people.

  14. 14
    David Losh says:

    RE: Jonness @ 12

    There are other things you can do to be a part of the solution, rather than a problem.

    Wage slaves are a problem. Savers are another problem, and waiting for things to work themselves out is for sure a disaster.

    All the laws that are on the books for the benefit of multi national corporations are available to you. You can employ people, set up corporate structures, take advantage of tax loop holes, and reinvest in capital expenditures.

    It’s a lot of work.

  15. 15

    By Scotsman @ 13:

    Anybody up for a betting pool on the number of lawsuits filed against Redfin by the end of October? Seems there are more than few bugs in the new program- and a lot of unhappy people.

    What bugs, etc.?

  16. 16
    Steve says:

    The Czech Sky house deserves a spot in the next detrimental listing photos post. The whole series of pictures looks more than just photoshopped – they look computer generated.

  17. 17
    Jonness says:

    By David Losh @ 14:

    RE: Jonness @ 12

    There are other things you can do to be a part of the solution, rather than a problem.

    Wage slaves are a problem. Savers are another problem, and waiting for things to work themselves out is for sure a disaster.

    All the laws that are on the books for the benefit of multi national corporations are available to you. You can employ people, set up corporate structures, take advantage of tax loop holes, and reinvest in capital expenditures.

    It’s a lot of work.

    I’ve tried it your way, my way, and numerous others. IMO, it’s all just a different brand of slavery.

    http://www.vangoghmuseum.nl/vgm/index.jsp?page=4500&lang=en

  18. 18
    robroy says:

    By Jonness @ 5:

    And as long as the economy remains strong, these deluded fools will continue to eat. But when thing go haywire, the country will most likely run out of free government cheese.

    Then what?

    RE: Jonness @ 5
    Seattle was my home since 1966. I moved to central Kentucky this summer into a house on a small farm I purchased, semi-coincidentally, two weeks before Urkel was elected. I answered my own “then what”. We’re putting up our 40x80x14 building that will become a valuable tool in completing our move towards total self sufficiency. It won’t eliminate risk, but it will mitigate it.

    And Louisville and Lexington are both over 70 miles away. The starving urbanites will have to work their way through each other and then 70 miles of people like me to get to my place, off a road off a road off a two lane highway. It is also 15 minutes from two Wal-Marts, a Lowes and a Tractor Supply.

    And it is absolutely beautiful here! If this thing ends up with a soft landing, I’m STILL so glad we moved out here. Of course, we were able to because we saw the writing on the wall. It’s easy to pull up stakes when you rent. 8-D

  19. 19
    robroy says:

    By David Losh @ 14:

    RE: Jonness @ 12

    There are other things you can do to be a part of the solution, rather than a problem.

    Wage slaves are a problem. Savers are another problem, and waiting for things to work themselves out is for sure a disaster.

    All the laws that are on the books for the benefit of multi national corporations are available to you. You can employ people, set up corporate structures, take advantage of tax loop holes, and reinvest in capital expenditures.

    It’s a lot of work.

    And if you are going Galt, like me, it’s not only not worth the work, but counter-productive. I confess I did get IT work out here, but I chose to contract. And if you REALLY want the answer to what to do about all of this on a personal level. Just read Ecclesisastes, cover to cover in one sitting. It’s pretty short and will open your eyes to a new (well, new for a lot of people) perspective that will be life changing for many.

    Enjoy!

    BTW, any relation to Brian? I used to work for him around 1980.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.