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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Bleeding Stops (For Now)

Posted on October 26, 2011 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $245,416 (down 1.0%)
  • Mid Tier: $245,416 – $392,755
  • Hi Tier: > $392,755 (down 0.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through August 2011.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Teeny-tiny increase for the low tier, while the high and middle tiers both lost ground. That’s a bit of a switch from recent months. The low tier rose 0.04% MOM, the middle tier dropped 0.1%, and the high tier lost 0.6%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through August 2011.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Only the high tier worsened in this chart. The low and middle tier both saw a bit of a bump. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of August – Low: -14.3%, Med: -8.0%, Hi: -4.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 38.9% off peak for the low tier, 30.9% off peak for the middle tier, and 25.9% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 10.25.2011)

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Case-Shiller: Summer is Over for Seattle Home Prices
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Case-Shiller: Visualizing Month-to-Month Price Weakness

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