It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).
To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:
"Healthy marketplaces" emerging with shrinking inventory, favorable financing
Home sales finished the year much stronger than they started, with pending sales for the fourth quarter outgaining the first quarter by more than 3,000 transactions for a 21 percent increase, according to new figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
“All over we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge as the inventory levels drop,” said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. “As you get closer to the job centers of Seattle and Bellevue, the marketplace is looking strong again,” he added while expressing optimism for the coming year. “The outlook for 2012 is the continuation of a strengthening marketplace, especially in the more affordable to mid range priced homes.”
…
OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, believes the market has undergone a shift. “Where we’ve been during the past year is a place of transition. It has been a slow recovery, but the housing market has finally turned a corner, albeit a soft one with some bumps along the way,” he commented.Despite rising sales, Jacobi, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, noted foreclosures and short sales continue to cause downward pressure on prices. “Many would-be sellers are still wary of the market, and as a result, there are fewer homes for sale,” he observed, adding, “At the same time, there are buyers who are eager to strike while the iron is hot, so in some areas, homes are selling before many buyers even have a chance to react.”
Um, no. Most would-be sellers are not “wary of the market.” They’re stuck in their homes. They’ve been “priced in” and simply couldn’t sell even if they wanted to, because they’ve got no equity, can’t afford to take the loss, and aren’t likely to get their lender to approve a short sale.
Here’s a slight variation on the closed sales chart I posted yesterday, to give you an idea what a “healthy marketplace” apparently looks like:
Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County median home price falls by double digits again
Probably because they’re cheaper, distressed properties also are pushing sales volumes up compared to a year ago: King County single-family home sales were up 0.5 percent, condo sales 20 percent, Snohomish County house sales nearly 21 percent last month.
What’s more, analysts say, competition from short sales and bank-repossessed homes almost certainly is discouraging many prospective sellers from putting their houses on the market: in King County, 25 percent fewer homes were listed for sale last month than in December 2010.
“If people aren’t forced to sell, they’re not [selling],” said land-use economist Matthew Gardner. “They’re willing to wait until they see more signs of stability in the market.”
…
Reports that more homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages suggest the distressed-property pipeline won’t unclog anytime soon, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington.That should keep prices from rising, he said.
Bingo! Not to mention all the pent-up supply Gardner alludes to. Once there’s any sign of stability, sellers will rush the market.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home sale surge abated in December
A surge that buoyed Seattle-area home sales in the second half of 2011 lost some steam in December, while prices continued to fall, according to a report released Wednesday.
Sales of King County homes rose 4.1 percent from a year earlier — down from a 46.1 percent jump in November and the lowest year-to-year increase since June, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Annual comparisons had been boosted in recent months by the fact that sales were depressed in the second half of 2010, after a homebuyer tax credit expired.
Okay so he says right there in the article that the year-over-year numbers were high only because last year was in the crapper, not because this year was high, but he’s still calling it a “surge” in sales? Huh? Does the chart above look like a “surge” in 2011 sales to you?
I’ve come to expect better than this from Aubrey. This month it feels like he’s just phoning it in.
Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald: County home sales increase, prices fall
Snohomish County’s housing market closed out the last month of 2011 on the same projection as the past six months: home sales continued to rise while home prices declined.
About 846 single family homes and condos were sold in the county last month, according to a report released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Sales were up 23.7 percent from the same month in 2010.
However, the median home price fell 9.3 percent to $222,750, down from $245,700 in December 2010.
Most of the rest of the article is just wholesale quotes from the press release.
Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: As Pierce County home sales rise, prices tumble
The Pierce County housing market ended the year on a sour note as median home prices once again fell by a double-digit margin in the year-over-year December period, according to data released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
That’s good news for the prospective home buyer in search of a deal, but tough on the home seller trying to sell as values continue to plummet.
Gotta love how they call it a “sour note,” but then go on to admit that it’s good for buyers. Rolf even admits just a few paragraphs later that low prices “have helped to stimulate Pierce County home sales.” Doesn’t sound so sour to me.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston County home sales rise 5% in December
Thurston County home sales rose 5 percent in December, ending the year on an encouraging note after sales were down or flat for most of 2011, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
Although sales eked out an end-of-the-year gain, median prices continued a downward trend, falling 7 percent, the combined single-family-residence and condominium data show.
Wait, falling prices and rising sales are “sour” in Pierce County but “encouraging” in Thurston? Huh? Note that both of these articles were written by the same guy…
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.04.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.04.2012)
(Michelle Dunlop, Everett Herald, 01.04.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 01.05.2012)