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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Drags Seattle Index Down

Posted on May 30, 2012May 30, 2012 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $232,614 (up 2.0%)
  • Mid Tier: $232,614 – $369,281
  • Hi Tier: > $369,281 (up 1.2%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through March 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The middle and high tiers both increased between February and March, while the low tier continued to fall. The low tier fell 1.1% MOM, the middle tier rose 2.1%, and the high tier gained 1.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through March 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Improvement on all three tiers, with the low tier moving to dead even double-digits, and the high tier moving a bit further into the black. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of March – Low: -10.0%, Med: -1.6%, Hi: +0.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 44.2% off peak for the low tier, 34.5% off peak for the middle tier, and 27.9% off peak for the high tier. The low tiers set a new post-peak low point.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.29.2012)

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Case-Shiller: Home Prices Hit Predictable Spring Bounce
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