Weekly Open Thread (2013-07-22)

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Here is your open thread for the week of July 22nd, 2013. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

NOTICE: If you have comments to make about politics or economics that do not somehow directly relate to Seattle-area real estate, they may be posted in the current Politics & Economics Open Thread.  If you post such comments here, they will be moved there.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

35 comments:

  1. 1
    Blurtman says:

    It’s just some someone having a baby. Happens all the time. Who the hell cares?

  2. 2
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 1:

    It’s just some someone having a baby. Happens all the time. Who the hell cares?

    I do. better than another QE or stand your ground story. a young couple is having a baby. good for them.

  3. 3
    pfft says:

    A Child in Seattle Has A Much Better Chance of Escaping Poverty Than a Child in Atlanta
    http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2013/07/child-seattle-has-much-better-chance-escaping-poverty-child-atlanta/6275/

    funny how communities that are less car dependent are more resilient? take that agenda 21 crazies!

    going green is a great thing. rarely does one thing solve so many problems.

  4. 4

    RE: pfft @ 3

    Pfft….You Need Some DOT Engineering Input On Mass Transit in Seattle

    It works quite well where the city grows circular around a center….not in Seattle at all, growing in a 100 mile straight line north and south with mountains to the east just miles from this tiny Hawaii Island strip of land we call home. I won’t mention the poorly planned “TOTALLY clogged” east/west freeway inlets shared by every Tom, Dick and Harry new housing development they keep carving into this puny strip of land’s freeway accesses that needed no more new zoned houses decades ago.

  5. 5
    Ron says:

    RE: pfft @ 3

    “The researchers found that larger tax credits for the poor do correlate with higher income mobility”

    Yet again, we see that providing tax relief and basic social services to those in need helps move people out of poverty.

    I hear nothing but bike-lane bashing from car dependent Seattle residents however bike paths and bike lanes have revitalized my neighborhood and brought an incredible amount of business/jobs here.

    People used to piss and moan when the gov forced citizens to recycle (many of us did it voluntarily). Now, we lead the nation.

    It’s all connected.

    Thanks for posting the link.

  6. 6
    Dirty Renter in Banjo Country says:

    By Blurtman @ 1:

    It’s just some someone having a baby. Happens all the time. Who the hell cares?

    Wake me up when Prince Whatshisname is dangling the kid over a balcony, then I’ll take a gander.

  7. 7
    Grow Up says:

    By softwarengineer @ 4:

    RE: pfft @ 3

    Pfft….You Need Some DOT Engineering Input On Mass Transit in Seattle

    It works quite well where the city grows circular around a center….not in Seattle at all, growing in a 100 mile straight line north and south with mountains to the east just miles from this tiny Hawaii Island strip of land we call home. I won’t mention the poorly planned “TOTALLY clogged” east/west freeway inlets shared by every Tom, Dick and Harry new housing development they keep carving into this puny strip of land’s freeway accesses that needed no more new zoned houses decades ago.

    Some cheese with your perpetual whine?

  8. 8
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Grow Up @ 7 – Carlos Danger requests a response to his texts.

  9. 9
    No Name Guy says:

    All is well, remain calm. Take all your money, what little you have from your now part time job, and buy a house. Buy now or be priced out for-EVER!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-25/dr-horton-real-impact-soaring-rates-shocked-homebuyers

    Snip:
    “Despite any and every talking-heads reassurance that rising mortgage rates won’t impact the awesomeness of the housing recovery, it seems the actual homebuilders have a different view:

    *HOMEBUYERS ‘SHOCKED AND DISTURBED’ BY RATE JUMP, TOMNITZ SAYS
    *D.R. HORTON CEO SAYS ‘DISAPPOINTED’ RATES ROSE SO ‘VIOLENTLY’
    *D.R. HORTON CEO SAYS TRAFFIC COUNT HAS SLOWED SINCE RATE RISE ”

    Also go look at the charts.

  10. 10

    RE: Blurtman @ 8
    If somehow he gets elected Mayor of NY, he won’t be the first idiot they’ve elected.

  11. 11
    Blurtman says:

    Ed Koch was pretty good, no? A real man of then people. And a straight shooter. Those New Yawkers and their less sophisticated cousins across the Hudson like the straight shooter type, like Christie, for example.

    When I moved to San Diego from New Jersey as a young man, I did not trust anyone. Everybody was too nice, laid back. Nobody was saying “Fook you if you don’t like it” or “Maybe I should just bust you one in the face, pal” or other terms of endearment. How could you possible gauge anyone if they wouldn’t tell you exactly how they felt?

  12. 12
    Blurtman says:

    The first black president thanks an American hero:

    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/10/06/us/SHUTTLESWORTH2-obit.html

  13. 13

    RE: Grow Up @ 7

    At Least Drinking Wine

    Isn’t kool-aid.

  14. 14
    pfft says:

    Quiet Rivalry Over the Next Fed Leader Comes Out of the Shadows
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/27/business/economy/quiet-rivalry-over-the-next-fed-leader-comes-out-of-the-shadows.html?ref=janetlyellen

    Yellen seems to be tough on unemployment and regulation so she gets my vote. Please no Summers!

  15. 15
    Macro Investor says:

    By pfft @ 14:

    Quiet Rivalry Over the Next Fed Leader Comes Out of the Shadows

    This is as silly as the red/blue phoney debate. Any fed chairman will be pro bankster and against main street and law and order.

    As usual, Pfft just falls for the blather on TV. Good little sheep.

  16. 16
    Erik says:

    Whatsmyname- Thank you for the information.

    What does it mean to leave my acquisition as part of my estate?

    I have a personal line of credit with BECU that I can get $10k out of incase of emergencies. I am renting a condo I just remodeled. I’m not forseeing any big expenses in the future. Everything works nicely. I will just save some of my rental income as a cushion. It seems I don’t know much about 1031 exchange. Maybe that isn’t the best route. I was thinking I could maybe move back in here for an additional 5 months if i want to sell in the next couple years. 2 or the last 5 is residence. I lived here 1.5. I could rent for a year, then move back and live here .5 years and avoid capital gains i think.

    Marco Investor- Good feedback and something I need to learn more about.

    I just showed my place and had it up for $1795 and $1500 deposit. They said they would get back to me by the end of the day, but it seems like they want it. We’ll see. My area is a good rental area for Microsoft and Google. I can charge high rent here.

    Suppose I get $700 cash flow like you said. Where will I be taxed? At the end of the year? I have had a rental before, but it wasn’t positive cashflow, so I didn’t know it would be taxed that much. Is there a way around it? Can’t I just put all the money into the mortgage and not pay tax or something? I want to get a studio for $1100 in Ballard. Ballard seems like a fun place to live right now and I want to see what all the fuss is about.

  17. 17
    pfft says:

    By Macro Investor @ 15:

    By pfft @ 14:

    Quiet Rivalry Over the Next Fed Leader Comes Out of the Shadows

    This is as silly as the red/blue phoney debate. Any fed chairman will be pro bankster and against main street and law and order.

    As usual, Pfft just falls for the blather on TV. Good little sheep.

    Yellen drew the ire of the tan man whose name I can’t believe I’ve forgotten. Yellen was too hard on the mortagage industry and mr tan man tried to go around here. She will be tougher on Wall Street. She also favors a higher than 2% inflation target which is good for workers because it means the unemployment rate will be lower. Over the long run research shows that inflation running a bit higher than the 2% target means a better performing economy.

    Mr Summers deregulated Wall Street during the Clinton years. Yellen is a much better choice and will be good for working people.

    You got a better choice?

  18. 18
    Erik says:

    Wreckingbull said “Do you plan on living in a cardboard box? I am certain you are an idiot, but you are still a fellow human so I feel compelled tell you your plans are a slow-motion train wreck. Stay in your place, work on improving your career and reducing costs until you no longer live paycheck to paycheck, build an emergency fund, then you can think about becoming a real estate tycoon. I reply with a bit of trepidation because I still am convinced we are all being trolled here, as the plausibility of your comments coming from an actual adult are almost nil.”

    I see you are still mad at me based on your comments. If troll means that this is all fictitious, you are incorrect about me. You can’t make this stuff up. I will live in a studio apartment in Ballard for a year and then by another fixer. Life’s too short to sit around saving money. I can always move back to this place if my positive cashflow scam doesn’t workout. There is very little risk here. I should have more money by renting an apartment for 1100 and making $760/mo more than what I pay for mortgage, insurance, and hoa dues.

    Did you take my advice on the flood plane thing? Just state the facts and leave it at that. No recommendations or what you think, just state the facts. There is no liability in stating facts. Whatever a buyer wants to do with that fact is on them.

  19. 19
    whatsmyname says:

    By Erik @ 16:

    What does it mean to leave my acquisition as part of my estate?

    … I’m not forseeing any big expenses in the future. Everything works nicely. I will just save some of my rental income as a cushion.
    …I was thinking I could maybe move back in here for an additional 5 months if i want to sell in the next couple years. 2 or the last 5 is residence. I lived here 1.5. I could rent for a year, then move back and live here .5 years and avoid capital gains i think.

    If you die holding the acquisition (or another acquisition achieved by subsequent 1031), The tax basis will step up to the current value, eliminating any tax on the gain. Otherwise, when you sell, you will pay capital gains; plus the ordinary income tax rate on the part you had depreciated as a rental. If you trade down, you will experience a similar treatment on the “boot” or recovered funds – which may include reduced loan balance.

    Unforeseen expenses may include a tenant who stops paying, eviction costs, property damage, litigation expense, or special assessments on your condo.

    Also, I heard that there has been a change in the rules that will reduce your exemption pro rata with the time in the 5 year look-back that you were renting it out. Don’t quote me on that though.

    Sorry to not be more helpful, but I am violating my new persona rule to be brief. Other rules include gratuitous insertion of the word “awesome” into every comment, and ending each comment with a question.

    Do you like my new gravitar?

  20. 20
    Erik says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 19
    Yes, I laughed at the photo. Good find. This tax stuff is confusing.

  21. 21
    Blurtman says:

    Reason number 2,999 to move your deposits out of a TBTF.

    “…. [buried in the thousands of pages of Dodd-Frank is the mechanism for “bail-in” (Cyprus model) that allows TBTF banks to confiscate depository funds, making the ripped off depositor a “shareholder” in the essentially worthless bank in return. Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank then quit politics–job done for the TBTF Banks. Glass Steagall cuts the money supply off to the TBTF Banks.”

  22. 22
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 21:

    Reason number 2,999 to move your deposits out of a TBTF.

    “…. [buried in the thousands of pages of Dodd-Frank is the mechanism for “bail-in” (Cyprus model) that allows TBTF banks to confiscate depository funds, making the ripped off depositor a “shareholder” in the essentially worthless bank in return. Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank then quit politics–job done for the TBTF Banks. Glass Steagall cuts the money supply off to the TBTF Banks.”

    is there a reason why we don’t get an author/source/link?

  23. 23
    David Losh says:

    RE: pfft @ 14

    It will be Tim Geithner.

  24. 24
    Macro Investor says:

    By Blurtman @ 21:

    Reason number 2,999 to move your deposits out of a TBTF.

    “…. [buried in the thousands of pages of Dodd-Frank is the mechanism for “bail-in” (Cyprus model) that allows TBTF banks to confiscate depository funds, making the ripped off depositor a “shareholder” in the essentially worthless bank in return. Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank then quit politics–job done for the TBTF Banks. Glass Steagall cuts the money supply off to the TBTF Banks.”

    This is the main reason not to deposit more than the amount FDIC insured. Even in Cyprus, where the rules were written in pencil and changed daily, in the end they respected the deposit limit.

  25. 25
    whatsmyname says:

    By David Losh @ the other thread:

    There are people who need to buy, and will pay any price, but prices only appear to go up because of sales data.

    Prices up are hype, but prices down are true value? C’mon, Dave; none of your reasoning has any fixed reference point outside of what DL thinks would be awesome.

    Because people have the choice to rent.

    But by your logic, is there also no reason for rental demand in the face of rising rents since people have the choice to buy?

  26. 26
    Blurtman says:

    RE: David Losh @ 23 – Bernie Madoff.

  27. 27
    David Losh says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 25

    Why not just pick a catch phrase like Real Estate always goes up in value?

    That is the actual phrase, because Real Estate does always go up in value. Prices may fluctuate, but Real Estate is a hedge against inflation. Where’s the inflation?

    So choose your catch phrase, I’m giving you an alternative choice, Real Estate always goes up in value, or Real Estate is a hedge against inflation. Either way, it’s not my logic, or reasoning, it’s just a fact that Real Estate has a fixed value.

    The demand for rentals I get. People, many people, should have been shopping for places to rent. Now those rentals should be hitting the Real Estate market because there are much better investments that will pay cash daily. Holding Real Estate for a long term is just nuts unless you have a huge portfolio.

    Do you really see us, the people in the United States becoming a European like society who pays land lords, and ladies of generational wealth for the privilege of a place to sleep at night so we can toil in the fields owned by the same families?

    Come on!

    According to your logic Erik’s place should be worth $200K because the sales data says so. I’m having a very hard time with that.

    All it takes is 6 comparable property sales to make a Comparative Market Analysis. Remember also that sales data is brought to you by the same people who are hyping the idea that you will be priced out forever if you don’t buy right now.

    You can wait, like Tim did, to make a purchase when the market cools.

  28. 28
    whatsmyname says:

    By David Losh @ 27:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 25

    Do you really see us, the people in the United States becoming a European like society who pays land lords, and ladies of generational wealth for the privilege of a place to sleep at night so we can toil in the fields owned by the same families?

    Isn’t that an awesome summation of exactly what you are suggesting we do?

  29. 29
    David Losh says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 26

    Same thing.

    Was it you who posted the link where Congress is considering making insider trading legal, I mean more legal than it already is?

  30. 30
    Erik says:

    RE: David Losh @ 27
    I bought a fixer at the right time. The renter refused to let anyone in to see the condo. I put a bid in anyway based on pictures I found on the internet and location. I knocked on the door many times, but they wouldn’t let me in. I dropped a case of beer off one time with a card asking if I could see the place please. Still no reply, but they drank the beer. I put a full price bid in on the REO property because I felt it was worth way more. Zillow said it was worth $160k at the time. It sold for $305k in 2007. I got it for $92.7k in November 2011. I remodeled the entire place very nicely. It was not very nice when I bought it. I don’t think I’d have a lot of trouble selling for $200k at this point. I would like to wait a year or so until the outside is painted and fixed up and sell it for $300k.

    I may not know very much about real estate, but I worked hard and did a great job on the buy and remodel. You may not like me, but give credit where credit is due. I earned it. :)

  31. 31
    Azucar says:

    By Dirty Renter in Banjo Country @ 6:

    By Blurtman @ 1:

    It’s just some someone having a baby. Happens all the time. Who the hell cares?

    Wake me up when Prince Whatshisname is dangling the kid over a balcony, then I’ll take a gander.

    Wake up!

    Ask, and ye shall receive.

    Isn’t the internet (and people with photoshop and too much time on their hands) wonderful?

    http://www.fark.com/comments/7855427/85516727#c85516727

  32. 32
    David Losh says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 28

    What I am suggesting is that if Real Estate pricing were in line with the given economic principles we would be a society of home owners, rather than renters.

    This get rich quick scenario of Erik’s is all you have to look at to see the problems we are having.

    If poor Erik would simply pay off a property he would be building wealth. Instead he is looking for the greater fool.

    I’m up for the debate, if you bring something to the table, because I think home ownership has gotten a bad rap here.

  33. 33
    Blurtman says:

    RE: David Losh @ 29 – FOB (Friend of Barack) Jon Corzine. He knows how to handle money.

  34. 34
    pfft says:

    By David Losh @ 23:

    RE: pfft @ 14

    It will be Tim Geithner.

    no!

  35. 35
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 33:

    RE: David Losh @ 29 – FOB (Friend of Barack) Jon Corzine. He knows how to handle money.

    nice try trying to connect the two.

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