Case-Shiller: Price Growth Cooled Further in June

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.1% May to June
Up 8.6% YOY.
Down 11.6% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices rose 1.8% from May to June and year-over-year prices were up 11.8%.

The June data shows continued cooling in the crazy home price gains we had been seeing, with the year-over-year level dropping to its lowest level since December 2012.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes fell from #5 in May to #9 in June. New York, Chicago, Las Vegas, Detroit, Tampa, Denver, Dallas, and Portland all saw home prices rise more between May and June than they did in Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In June, eight of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one fewer than May):

  • Las Vegas at +15.2%
  • San Francisco at +12.9%
  • Miami at +11.5%
  • Los Angeles at +10.5%
  • Detroit at +10.3%
  • San Diego at +10.2%
  • Portland at +9.2%
  • Tampa at +9.1%

Ten cities gained less than Seattle as of June: New York, Chicago, Las Vegas, Detroit, Tampa, Denver, Dallas, and Portland.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through June.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the eighty-two months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 11.6%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of June 2014, Seattle prices are right around where they were in March 2006.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.26.2014)

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

19 comments:

  1. 1

    You might have an actual decline to report early next month! ;-)

    Inference from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  2. 2
    Macro Investor says:

    In another 18 months lots of Microsoft contractors lose their jobs. All those 2 income households that extended themselves for overpriced crap boxes on the east side become 1 income households. What happens to the real estate market? I can predict one thing for certain — agents will say “no impact”, keep up the bidding war suckers.

    Bond rates still making new lows and sales volume is tepid at best. May you live in interesting times.

  3. 3
    BacktoBasic says:

    By Macro Investor @ 2:

    In another 18 months lots of Microsoft contractors lose their jobs. All those 2 income households that extended themselves for overpriced crap boxes on the east side become 1 income households. What happens to the real estate market? I can predict one thing for certain — agents will say “no impact”, keep up the bidding war suckers.

    Bond rates still making new lows and sales volume is tepid at best. May you live in interesting times.

    Many of these people are already absorbed by other companies. There are shortage of skilled worker in this region. Next year the rate will be incereased by 1% to 5% 30 year. What will is impact on affordability? I the employment improves and min $15/hr kick in, you could expect your rent and house payment increase assume the same house stays the same price.

  4. 4
    Chris says:

    I bought a house on the lowest bar in that last graph. That’s what you call good timing. Even a blind squirrel….

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    RE: Chris @ 4
    That is awesome. Good job. You made yourself I lot of money by timing it right.

  6. 6
    Deerhawke says:

    Prices rose 1.1% month on month and 8.6% year on year. By any standard that is a hot market, not a cool one.

    The rate of increase is down a bit from before? Fine, lets hope that shows a maturing and more sustainable market.

  7. 7
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 6
    I think prices in west seattle are still depressed. I bought on alki beach a couple weeks ago because prices seemed cheap there. As prices catch up in west seattle, the median price in seattle will continue increasing. I think in the next 2 years will we will continue to see large gains in the median house price in seattle.

  8. 8
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 7 – The melting polar ice cap means that Alki homes will literally be under water in the future, hence the discounted pricing.

  9. 9
    Corndogs says:

    By Blurtman @ 8:

    RE: Erik @ 7 – The melting polar ice cap means that Alki homes will literally be under water in the future, hence the discounted pricing.

    RE: Blurtman @ 8 – Which ice cap is melting? point to some evidence.

  10. 10
    Jenny says:

    We have the option to sell our house now, or rent it out for 2 years, and then sell. Any advice? We would make about 55k profit on the sell of our house, and roughly 24K profit from renting for 2 years (this is AFTER all expenses (mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance expectations, etc). I realize I’m asking people to look into their Crystal balls, but I would love some opinions. Thanks!

  11. 11
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 8
    I plan to sell to some unsuspecting software person before that happens.

  12. 12
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Corndogs @ 9 – Give this fellow a call to discuss. He’s at UWA. http://www.apl.washington.edu/people/profile.php?last=Joughin&first=Ian

  13. 13
    Erik says:

    RE: Jenny @ 10
    Which area?

  14. 14
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 12
    That guy has a Phd in electrical engineering from Vermont. I have a MS in mechanical engineering from UW. I wouldn’t mind a nice relaxing job at uw researching polar ice caps with tax payer money. Seems like a good way to go. That’s what these advanced degrees are for anyway, right? Nice relaxing research jobs.

  15. 15
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: Jenny @ 10 – What prompts the option and why the two year window? (I ask because we were faced with a similar choice two years ago, but our analysis only applies to specific situations…)

  16. 16
    Jenny says:

    RE: Erik @ 13

    In Ballard.

  17. 17
    Jenny says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 15

    Not sure about the 2 year window, but I did read that you have to live in your house for at least 2 of the last 5 years, prior to selling it, to avoid paying capital gains taxes.

  18. 18
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 14 – Hey, quit making waves. Satellites are already tracking that POS pickup. Do we need to engage the Hellfires as well?

  19. 19

    RE: Jenny @ 10

    Can you stay until February and decide then, or does it have to be sell now or rent now as in before year end?

    If I had to answer I’d say sell, as two years from now is an election year and financial and housing markets tend to be more erratic and less predictable in Presidential Election Years when the incumbent can’t run again. Go back and look at 2008 as example.

    A possible first female President is likely to have the same disastrous impact on the markets as the first black Presidential Election time.

    Best answer is likely end of February 2014. Possibly February 2015. But when you get into the onslaught of crap in 2016 with Republicans wanting to throw Democrats under the bus by destroying the Country as much as possible so they can win…all hell will break loose. Would be the same in reverse if the current President were a Republican. With a woman in the mix on the Democrat side…it will likely get pretty ugly.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.