Three Months in, Zillow’s “Coming Soon” Barely a Blip

After being sharply criticized by both real estate agents and consumer groups, just a little over three months after the well-publicized launch of their new “Coming Soon” listing feature, Zillow’s attempt to convince listing agents to share their pocket listings seems to be a flop.

Between the feature’s June 12 launch and my initial data collection on June 30 a grand total of 458 “Coming Soon” listings were added to the site. Today, only 154 more “Coming Soon” listings are on Zillow than when I checked three months ago.

Compared to the 43,919 “Make Me Move” and 94,647 for sale by owner listings, the volume of “Coming Soon” listings is barely even measurable. Zillow’s current inventory of 612 “Coming Soon” listings make up just 0.4 percent of their total off-MLS inventory in these three categories.

I’ve put together an update to the table that counts Zillow’s off-MLS inventory in three categories by state. The “Rate” for each is the number of listings per 1 million residents. The top states are still Nevada, Missouri, Arizona, and California, and 21 states still have fewer than one “Coming Soon” listing per million residents.

Do you think Zillow will kill “Coming Soon” if adoption of this mostly-unwanted feature continues to progress this slowly?

Click a column header to sort the table by that column.

State Coming Soon CS-Rate Make Me Move MMM-Rate FSBO FSBO-Rate
Alabama 1 0.2 483 99.9 2,337 483.5
Alaska 0 0.0 82 111.5 289 393.1
Arizona 33 5.0 1,332 201.0 1,783 269.1
Arkansas 2 0.7 277 93.6 1,872 632.6
California 164 4.3 4,294 112.0 2,982 77.8
Colorado 15 2.8 1,545 293.3 1,468 278.6
Connecticut 3 0.8 604 168.0 828 230.3
Delaware 3 3.2 125 135.0 252 272.2
District Of Columbia 2 3.1 141 218.1 61 94.4
Florida 55 2.8 3,779 193.3 8,717 445.8
Georgia 14 1.4 1,656 165.7 3,351 335.4
Hawaii 3 2.1 119 84.8 129 91.9
Idaho 5 3.1 213 132.1 705 437.3
Illinois 14 1.1 1,653 128.3 4,042 313.8
Indiana 2 0.3 629 95.7 2,318 352.8
Iowa 0 0.0 235 76.0 1,676 542.3
Kansas 1 0.3 196 67.7 1,021 352.8
Kentucky 3 0.7 340 77.4 2,047 465.7
Louisiana 1 0.2 191 41.3 1,751 378.6
Maine 3 2.3 109 82.1 524 394.5
Maryland 15 2.5 958 161.6 1,056 178.1
Massachusetts 11 1.6 1,101 164.5 1,050 156.9
Michigan 8 0.8 1,499 151.5 3,862 390.3
Minnesota 8 1.5 807 148.9 1,109 204.6
Mississippi 0 0.0 161 53.8 1,110 371.1
Missouri 33 5.5 869 143.8 2,458 406.7
Montana 3 3.0 100 98.5 547 538.8
Nebraska 0 0.0 127 68.0 783 419.0
Nevada 21 7.5 404 144.8 447 160.2
New Hampshire 3 2.3 150 113.3 366 276.5
New Jersey 14 1.6 1,146 128.8 2,389 268.4
New Mexico 1 0.5 186 89.2 705 338.1
New York 15 0.8 1,518 77.2 5,313 270.4
North Carolina 15 1.5 1,719 174.6 3,839 389.8
North Dakota 0 0.0 39 53.9 339 468.6
Ohio 15 1.3 1,625 140.4 4,309 372.4
Oklahoma 2 0.5 444 115.3 1,853 481.2
Oregon 5 1.3 1,233 313.7 1,364 347.1
Pennsylvania 19 1.5 1,435 112.3 3,510 274.8
Rhode Island 1 1.0 136 129.3 217 206.4
South Carolina 12 2.5 730 152.9 2,074 434.4
South Dakota 0 0.0 28 33.1 259 306.6
Tennessee 11 1.7 1,198 184.4 3,034 467.1
Texas 42 1.6 2,472 93.5 4,875 184.3
Utah 6 2.1 690 237.9 942 324.7
Vermont 0 0.0 63 100.5 472 753.2
Virginia 16 1.9 1,402 169.7 2,351 284.6
Washington 3 0.4 2,928 420.0 2,372 340.2
West Virginia 4 2.2 113 60.9 695 374.8
Wisconsin 5 0.9 590 102.7 2,556 445.1
Wyoming 0 0.0 45 77.2 238 408.5
US Total 612 1.9 43,919 138.9 94,647 299.4

Data in this post was collected from Zillow.com on September 23, 2014.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

10 comments:

  1. 1

    Coming Soon has a lot of problems, but I will point out that your stats are a bit skewed because CS is designed to be rather temporary. So you would expect to see fewer CS than MMM or FSBO. But probably not that many fewer.

    But rather than kill it, they should sell it to someone else, who can then kill it, as was being (falsely?) reported about Apple and Beats this morning.

    What amazes me is how little the NWMLS has done to let agents know CS violates its rules. Maybe I missed it, but I don’t think I saw a single mention on their main agent page.

  2. 2
    Steve says:

    Why are you so down on Zillow all the time? Even if Redfin is a competitor, you don’t work there any more.

  3. 3

    RE: Steve @ 2 – Is there some redeeming quality of Zillow?

    About the only one I can think of is they’re good at controlling spam. Too good! They’ve removed links I’ve posted to Rhonda’s website and even links to the RCWs (state statutes).

  4. 4
    The Tim says:

    RE: Steve @ 2 – My opinion of Zillow has nothing to do with my past employment (and current shareholder status) at Redfin.

    I’ve been critical of them since the day they launched their site eight years ago, well before my 2010-2013 stint at Redfin.

    Stan Humphries and his research team are doing interesting things with their data, but much of the listing info on Zillow is incorrect and/or incomplete (and they like it that way), their unique web features* add little to no value for consumers actually searching for homes to buy, and their entire business model is just to be a middle man that sits between real estate agents / mortgage providers and consumers, selling leads/ads. I’m just as unimpressed as I was eight years ago.

    *Do they even really have any unique features anymore?

  5. 5

    The General American Stock Market Had a 10% YTD Growth So Far

    Zillow stock is underwater gasping lately. One problem is they’re spending too much money lately. The bland risky housing market is another anchor for Zillow’s stocks per Kiplinger Reports:

    “…Although the stock has dropped 28% since May 9, we’d look for additional declines before buying. As promising as the outlook is, there’s a lot going on that might put pressure on the shares later this year. Analysts have trimmed their earnings estimates in recent weeks, in part to accommodate plans for Zillow to spend more later this year. For example, Zillow is opening a new office in Orange County, which will require hiring more people. More acquisitions may be coming, too. And the company is spending heavily on technology for its mobile applications and Web site.

    There’s the competition, too. Trulia, for instance, is the second-most visited real estate Web site, and it now offers a home-value estimate function that’s similar to Zillow’s Zestimates. (Realtor.com, the Web site of the National Association of Realtors, ranks a distant third in traffic.) Analysts expect Trulia to go public later this year.

    And finally there’s the housing market. Though it has shown a few signs of life this year, it may sputter, along with the economy. If it does, that could dampen results at Zillow, too.

    For now, given that “if” and others — including whether more agents will beat a path to its door to advertise — we think you’ll get a chance to buy the stock at a significant discount to where it now trades…”

    Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C008-S001-is-zillow-s-stock-a-buy.html#FYSSRyOekrAXW04l.99

  6. 6
    SS says:

    I don’t get the constant Zillow bashing either. Sure it’s not perfect but there are what, 130+ million homes in the U.S.? It’s going to be impossible to be 100% accurate with the constant data changes. You need to cross-reference different platforms to get the most reliable results.

    I find Zillow’s property map overlay to be incredibly useful when browsing different neighborhoods and having a direct link to the county assessor for digging deeper on the properties details.

  7. 7
    SS says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5

    You realize that article is 2+ yrs old when Zillow was trading at only $34 a share?

  8. 8

    RE: SS @ 7

    Thanks for the Correction

    You’re right, sorry for the administrative error….its gone up 200% in value since then…..the article was spot on, two years ago.

  9. 9
    david2000 says:

    LOL

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