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Case-Shiller Tiers: Year-Over-Year Gains Continue to Shrink

Posted on October 3, 2014 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $281,387 (up 0.8%)
  • Mid Tier: $281,387 – $453,561
  • Hi Tier: > $453,561 (up 0.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2014.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The middle and high tier softened their month-over-month increases in July, but the low tier kept on chugging along. Between June and July, the low tier increased 1.5%, the middle tier rose 0.8%, and the high tier gained 0.6%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2014.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth continued to shrink in all three tiers, losing the most on the low tier, despite its relative month-over-month strength. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: +9.7%, Med: +6.8%, Hi: +7.1%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 20.7% off peak for the low tier, 13.5% off peak for the middle tier, and 7.7% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.30.2014)

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