Case-Shiller: A Mild Autumn for Home Prices

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.1% September to October
Up 6.2% YOY.
Down 11.4% from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were still rising. They increased 0.3% from August to September and year-over-year prices were up 13.2% (the highest point gains have hit since late 2006).

Year-over-year price gains inched up in October thanks to month-over-month changes that were slightly higher than last year. Last year prices peaked in September and fell 0.3 percent by October. This year prices peaked in July, but have still fallen by just 0.3 percent as of October.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes increased from #16 in September to #11 in October. San Francisco, Tampa, Denver, Miami, Los Angeles, Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Detroit, and San Diego all saw home prices rise more or fall less between September and October than they did in Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In October, five of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one fewer than September):

  • Miami at +9.5%
  • San Francisco at +9.1%
  • Las Vegas at +8.0%
  • Dallas at +7.6%
  • Denver at +7.2%

Fourteen cities gained less than Seattle as of October: Portland, Tampa, Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Washington, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, and Cleveland.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the eighty-six months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 11.4%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of October 2014, Seattle prices are still roughly right around where they were in March 2006.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.30.2014)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2 comments:

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    UrbanDweller says:

    You said: “Last year at this time prices were still rising. They increased 0.3% from August to September and year-over-year prices were up 13.2% (the highest point gains have hit since late 2006).”

    Should it be: “Last year at this time prices were still rising. They increased 0.3% from September to October and year-over-year prices were up 13.2% (the highest point gains have hit since late 2006).”

    You mentioned September to October for the MOM in the rest of this blog post.

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