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Case-Shiller Tiers: Only Low Tier Increased in October

Posted on December 31, 2014December 30, 2014 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $284,759 (up 0.4%)
  • Mid Tier: $284,759 – $453,358
  • Hi Tier: > $453,358 (up less than 0.1%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through October 2014.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

For the third month in a row, only the high tier lost ground month-over-month, but this month the middle tier joined in the losses, while the low tier turned in another slight month-over-month gain.

Between September and October, the low tier increased 0.6%, the middle tier fell 0.2%, and the high tier lost 0.3%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through October 2014.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth was mixed across the three tiers, with the middle tier declining slightly while the low and high tiers increased. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: +8.5%, Med: +5.7%, Hi: +6.0%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 19.5% off peak for the low tier, 13.3% off peak for the middle tier, and 8.6% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.30.2014)

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Case-Shiller: A Mild Autumn for Home Prices
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December Stats Preview: New Low for Inventory

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