Weekly Open Thread (2015-01-05)

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Here is your open thread for the week of January 5th, 2015. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Note: The comment limit in open threads is 25 comments per person.

NOTICE: If you have comments to make about politics or economics that do not somehow directly relate to Seattle-area real estate, they may be posted in the current Politics & Economics Open Thread.  If you post such comments here, they will be moved there.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

27 comments:

  1. 1

    SWE’s Monthly Investor’s Report for Dec 2014

    Dec 0.18% 0.21% (0.24%) 0.99% (4.13%)
    YTD 2.31% 6.73% 13.78% 7.80% (5.27%)
    Last 12 mo 2.31% 6.73% 13.78% 7.80% (5.27%)

    In order: 10 year CD, 10 year bonds, average American Stock returns, Foreign Stocks, Foreign stocks…

    I guessed right for 2014 on American stocks early this year …10-15% average returns….

    I expect 2015 to be about the same, even without QEs. The Fed has no plans to raise interest rates in 2015 is my assumption, correct me if I’m wrong?

  2. 2
    pfft says:

    There aren’t enough LOLs.

    CEO Who Said He’d Probably Have To Fire Employees If Obama Won Is Now Giving Them Raises
    http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/01/05/3607810/ceo-fire-obama-raise-wage/

  3. 3

    Here are some bad listing photos. Not sure how old this is, but I haven’t seen it before.

    http://lightersideofrealestate.com/real-estate-humor/30-real-estate-listing-photos-cant-real

  4. 4

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @

    Kary

    Those were funny as hades….I sent them to a friend ;-)

  5. 5

    RE: pfft @

    Yes Pfft:

    That’s why I hate Republicans blaming Democrats and vice versa….the future can change everything in a wink….

  6. 6
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ :

    RE: pfft @

    Yes Pfft:

    That’s why I hate Republicans blaming Democrats and vice versa….the future can change everything in a wink….

    it’s not about that. it’s the fact that despite all evidence to the contrary people(mostly republicans) just can’t accept the fact that Democratic presidents do create jobs and don’t trash the economy. Just like Democrats can be patriotic and black people(and white people) can both protest the police and at the same time support the police. Just like black people can both protest AND have a job(s).

  7. 7
    pfft says:

    By the way since the trough of the recession Obama has created 10 million jobs with no help from Republicans. In fact Republicans have probably held back millions of jobs from being created through blocking minimum wage laws, infrastructure bills, climate change bills and blocking the expansion of medicaid(lowering healthcare costs will create hundreds of thousands of jobs).

  8. 8

    RE: pfft @ – And partisan Republicans would claim that the Democrats in the Senate held back jobs legislation. Neither point is all that valid. But in any case, Obama only suggests things he knows will never pass so that he can score political points. It’s the difference between being a leader and just being a politician.

  9. 9
    The Tim says:

    NWMLS numbers for December are out. I’ll get the post up later today, around 5PM. King County SFH median price of $440,000 was unchanged from November.

  10. 10
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ :

    RE: pfft @ – And partisan Republicans would claim that the Democrats in the Senate held back jobs legislation. Neither point is all that valid. But in any case, Obama only suggests things he knows will never pass so that he can score political points. It’s the difference between being a leader and just being a politician.

    Republicans never do the same? They tried to repeal part or all of Obamacare dozens of times. they are going to pass things they know Obama will veto.

    “And partisan Republicans would claim that the Democrats in the Senate held back jobs legislation. Neither point is all that valid.”

    Sorry you are wrong. Republicans are blocking an infrastructure and jobs bill that will create millions of jobs. If you have a Republican plan that will lead to millions of jobs please post a link!

    “It’s the difference between being a leader and just being a politician”

    blah blah blah. when people don’t have a good opinion they always fall back on the Obama is not leading. so why are his approval numbers soaring?

    All of your points are mute anyways as Republicans can’t support anything Obama puts forth or they will be a primary challenger.

    Obama is one of the best presidents and politicians in history. there is no disputing that. he was reelected in a racist country.

  11. 11

    By pfft @ :

    By Kary L. Krismer @ :

    RE: pfft @ – And partisan Republicans would claim that the Democrats in the Senate held back jobs legislation. Neither point is all that valid. But in any case, Obama only suggests things he knows will never pass so that he can score political points. It’s the difference between being a leader and just being a politician.

    Republicans never do the same?

    That’s why I said neither point has any merit. Partisan points seldom do, which is why your posts seldom have any merit.

  12. 12

    By The Tim @ :

    NWMLS numbers for December are out. I’ll get the post up later today, around 5PM. King County SFH median price of $440,000 was unchanged from November.

    The volume was surprisingly high at almost 2000 sales.

  13. 13
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ :

    By pfft @ :

    By Kary L. Krismer @ :

    RE: pfft @ – And partisan Republicans would claim that the Democrats in the Senate held back jobs legislation. Neither point is all that valid. But in any case, Obama only suggests things he knows will never pass so that he can score political points. It’s the difference between being a leader and just being a politician.

    Republicans never do the same?

    That’s why I said neither point has any merit. Partisan points seldom do, which is why your posts seldom have any merit.

    I almost always have facts and links to back up my posts. you rarely do even when I badger you multiple times.

    As to my claims that an infrastructure bill would create millions of jobs:

    Unhappy Anniversary: Republicans Have Blocked The American Jobs Act For One Year
    http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/09/07/812251/republicans-blocked-jobs-act-one-year/

    As to the claim that health reform would create hundreds of thousands of jobs(note I was wrong it’s in the millions over a decade but hundreds of thousands over a year)

    New Jobs Through Better Health Care
    Health Care Reform Could Boost Employment by 250,000 to 400,000 a Year this Decade
    http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/01/pdf/health_care_jobs.pdf

    In review, my post have significant merit.

  14. 14
    pfft says:

    With oil at $50 and down from it’s summer of 2008 high of $145…feel the inflation!

    The inflation chicken littles were so wrong: The dollar is on a tear
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/06/the-inflation-chicken-littles-were-so-wrong-the-dollar-is-on-a-tear/

  15. 15
  16. 16

    RE: pfft @

    True Pfft

    But even your pal Obama predicts low oil prices will vanish quickly, like the past. When will milk go back to $2/gal with $50/bbl oil? When will burger go back to $1.25/lb? Bacon to $2/lb, etc., etc….

    They haven’t lowered food prices with lower oil prices at the grocery stores, not hardly at all. Burger King still sells ham thickness meat and McDonalds still sells dinky sandwiches…coffee is still $5/lb for the cheap stuff…college tuition at the U of W is still $4.2K per quarter for instate students, Blue Cross family plans are still $15-20K a year…

  17. 17
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ :

    RE: pfft @

    True Pfft

    But even your pal Obama predicts low oil prices will vanish quickly, like the past. When will milk go back to $2/gal with $50/bbl oil? When will burger go back to $1.25/lb? Bacon to $2/lb, etc., etc….

    They haven’t lowered food prices with lower oil prices at the grocery stores, not hardly at all. Burger King still sells ham thickness meat and McDonalds still sells dinky sandwiches…coffee is still $5/lb for the cheap stuff…college tuition at the U of W is still $4.2K per quarter for instate students, Blue Cross family plans are still $15-20K a year…

    I guess you miss my point. We don’t high inflation, certainly not weimar.

  18. 18
    Blurtman says:

    As usual, just about everything we’ve heard about the economy is wrong. To start, the 5.0 percent growth number must be understood against a darker backdrop: The economy actually shrank at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter. If we take the first three quarters of the year together, the average growth rate was a more modest 2.5 percent.

    The economy is very slowly making up the gap between potential GDP and actual GDP — that is, the value of the goods and services the economy could be producing but isn’t because of a lack of demand. The Congressional Budget Office puts the size of this gap at 3.6 percent of GDP, which comes to more than $600 billion annually, or more than $4,000 per household. This is a lot of money to be throwing in the garbage every year. At the economy’s growth rate through the first three quarters of 2014, we will close this gap in 12 to 36 years.

    Compare the 2014 growth number with those from recoveries after previous severe recessions: Growth averaged 5.2 percent from 1976 to 1978, and it averaged 5.4 percent from 1983 to 1985. That so many people are celebrating 2.5 percent growth over three quarters shows a serious lessening of expectations.

    Furthermore, the third-quarter GDP number was driven by factors that will almost certainly be reversed in the fourth quarter. A big jump in military spending added 0.7 percentage points to the quarter’s growth. This will almost certainly be reversed in the fourth quarter, which will create a drag on growth.

    http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/dont-believe-what-you-hear-about-the-us-economy

  19. 19

    Conan has a repeated skit about the information button on the TV remote control. For the State of the Union Address it was something like “The President talks about things which will never happen.” :-D

  20. 20

    RE: Blurtman @
    5% Unemployment and We’re Creating Jobs Like Crazy

    More NWO rag lies. I looked it up yesterday on the BLS. America has created jobs since the end of the Great Recession [Jan2008] to the latest data available Nov2014; about 7 years of “job growth?”. Hades, only 2 Million jobs we’re created….Obama’s Executive Order Amnesty this year will suck that dry alone. Now, how do we put the other 10s of millions of new insourced foreign workers to work, without stealing the legal citizens’ jobs for like half pay?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trouble-jobs-pay-still-stinks-164530114.html

    This impact is worse on the Seattle area, we insource more and our labor force is stagnant since the 2008 Great Recession, shrinking soon at a theater near you [30% drop in defense work in Seattle] ….I calculate a -7.1% drop in BA stock alone, YOY for 2014.

  21. 21

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @

    I saw a Obama Cartoon, where he’s mad that national security pre-empted Reverend Wright…LOL

    http://patriotpost.us/cartoons/21534#share

  22. 22

    Remember Tim’s piece on the hidden buyer charge for the connection charge to King County sewer? Well I just ran across a city or part of a city (which will go nameless because this pertains to an active listing), where there is an additional fee of about $18,000 for the city, and in addition to the monthly payments the balance is due on first sale, and the house has to be connected at that time too, even if the septic has not failed!

  23. 23
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ :

    As usual, just about everything we’ve heard about the economy is wrong. To start, the 5.0 percent growth number must be understood against a darker backdrop: The economy actually shrank at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter. If we take the first three quarters of the year together, the average growth rate was a more modest 2.5 percent.

    The economy is very slowly making up the gap between potential GDP and actual GDP — that is, the value of the goods and services the economy could be producing but isn’t because of a lack of demand. The Congressional Budget Office puts the size of this gap at 3.6 percent of GDP, which comes to more than $600 billion annually, or more than $4,000 per household. This is a lot of money to be throwing in the garbage every year. At the economy’s growth rate through the first three quarters of 2014, we will close this gap in 12 to 36 years.

    Compare the 2014 growth number with those from recoveries after previous severe recessions: Growth averaged 5.2 percent from 1976 to 1978, and it averaged 5.4 percent from 1983 to 1985. That so many people are celebrating 2.5 percent growth over three quarters shows a serious lessening of expectations.

    Furthermore, the third-quarter GDP number was driven by factors that will almost certainly be reversed in the fourth quarter. A big jump in military spending added 0.7 percentage points to the quarter’s growth. This will almost certainly be reversed in the fourth quarter, which will create a drag on growth.

    http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/dont-believe-what-you-hear-about-the-us-economy

    so 4.3% growth is bad?

    I am glad you are coming around to posting about the output gap. I’ve only been posting about that for years!

    I suppose you want government stimulus to close the output gap right?

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ :

    Conan has a repeated skit about the information button on the TV remote control. For the State of the Union Address it was something like “The President talks about things which will never happen.” :-D

    republicans are doing the same…

  25. 25
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ :

    RE: Blurtman @
    5% Unemployment and We’re Creating Jobs Like Crazy

    More NWO rag lies. I looked it up yesterday on the BLS. America has created jobs since the end of the Great Recession [Jan2008] to the latest data available Nov2014; about 7 years of “job growth?”. Hades, only 2 Million jobs we’re created….Obama’s Executive Order Amnesty this year will suck that dry alone. Now, how do we put the other 10s of millions of new insourced foreign workers to work, without stealing the legal citizens’ jobs for like half pay?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trouble-jobs-pay-still-stinks-164530114.html

    This impact is worse on the Seattle area, we insource more and our labor force is stagnant since the 2008 Great Recession, shrinking soon at a theater near you [30% drop in defense work in Seattle] ….I calculate a -7.1% drop in BA stock alone, YOY for 2014.

    you’re wrong. Obama has created 5 million jobs in office and 10 million since the low point of the recession. with no help from republicans. we’d have millions more jobs if republicans started helping.

  26. 26
    pfft says:

    you’re welcome.

    Week 19 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Divisional Round Edition
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-19-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds-divisional-round-edition/

  27. 27

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