Most New Listings Being Immediately Snatched Up

A recent commenter had some questions about inventory:

…how much of the “low inventory” story is really a story of “high churn”?

…it doesn’t seem like there is really a shortage of inventory, but rather that there is a shortage of stale inventory. Would be really curious to see how how new listing rates for houses added the market each month have been trending. My impression is that what we have is really not a shortage of sellers compared to historical norms, but an excess of very impatient buyers.

As it turns out, I’ve got charts for that. First up, here’s a look at new listings for just the last month, compared to May of every other year:

Total New Listings: July 2000-2014

New listings in May were down from last year and 2013. The last three years have been quite a bit better than 2010-2012, but are still quite a bit worse than the historic level we saw before the bust.

Here’s a look at the number of new listings added to the market in the last three months, compared to the same period in other years:

Total New Listings: March - May 2000-2014

By this measure, new listings are at their highest level in the last five years, but again, still quite a bit below the pre-bust or even the pre-bubble levels.

Here’s a long-term view of every month back through 2000:

New Listings 2000-Present

Before the housing bubble burst, it was common to see more than 3,500 listings every month April through September, often more than 4,000 a month. So far this year we haven’t hit the 3,500 mark yet.

The next chart shows the difference between the number of new listings each month and the number of pending sales. Prior to late 2011 this number was almost always positive, except in December, when very few new listings hit the market. From October 2011 through March 2013 this measure was negative, indicating very tight inventory.

New Listings Less Pending Sales 2000-Present

Last year this measure hit +100 in April and stayed well into the positive range for the next six months. This year it barely edged above zero in April and May.

Finally, let’s take a look at the “stale listings” measure, which uses the total listings, new listings, and pending sales counts to estimate how many listings are “carried over” from one month to the next.

Stale Listings 2000-Present

This number hasn’t ever been negative before this year. A negative number basically indicates that more listings sold in the month than were on the market at the end of last month.

There is definitely a high amount of “churn” right now, and obviously very few stale listings. However, no matter what way you measure, listings are still at very low levels in the current market.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

201 comments:

  1. 1
    Rebecca says:

    This was a great question, thanks for answering it! With every thing we hear about the super low inventory , I’ve felt that putting our house on the market now would put us in the intractable position of not being able to find something else to purchase. But, we bought this, our first house in 2012, when according to these graphs the inventory was even tighter. I don’t think its enough to entice me to make a switch, prices are still an issue. This was however a bit of a hype shattering experience for me. Speaking of hype, I’ve noticed in my casual regular browsing of listings that there are quite a few houses sitting on the market for what seems like a long time in this super heated market, even though they seem well priced for the current market – like more than 30 days, sometimes more than 60. Is there a seasonal slow down or are frustrated potential buyers giving up and walking away?

  2. 2
    Marc says:

    This is a very interesting series of charts and I’m curious what they can tell us about what we can expect over the next 18 months. It’s pretty clear that the second half of 2015 will be a continuation of the trend since 2012 of tight inventory and high price appreciation. I expect inventory to follow it’s typical seasonal trend and likely peak this year in August before drifting lower into December. Prices will continue to escalate and set us up for a repeat next spring, i.e., tight inventory and bidding wars in close in/desirable neighborhoods. No crystal ball needed for that but what about all of 2016?

    One or two rate increases by the Fed before the end of 2015 (and I predict only one) will lead interest rates higher and further hurt affordability. Another one or maybe two increases before the end of next spring and Tim’s affordability charts are going to look as brutal as they did in 2007 for the median “buyer.’ But interest rates only have modest correlation with prices so that, by itself, won’t change the direction of the market.

    So, what will happen? Will we finally see larger numbers of sellers come to the market to cash out and, in so doing, satiate demand and put a cap on irrationally exhuberant price increases?

    That’s very likely what I’ll do next spring when I put my house in Magnolia on the market. If I’m lucky, I’ll catch the last high tide of prices on the sell side and then buy later in the fall when there’s more to choose from and less in-fighting among buyers. Of course, that could just be buying at another market peak (I bought in Aug. ’07). But, as values stand right now, buying at the peak last time worked out just fine so I’m not too worried if it happens again.

  3. 3
    lordcecil says:

    Can you adjust for population? A fixed number of new listings with an increasing population will increase pain.

  4. 4

    By Marc @ 2:

    This is a very interesting series of charts and I’m curious what they can tell us about what we can expect over the next 18 months.

    Ignoring seasonal trends, which may or may not hold up, charts of the past never tell you anything about the future, particularly 18 months out. People like to think they do, but then people like to think they can predict the future too.

  5. 5
    Azucar says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 4:

    By Marc @ 2:

    This is a very interesting series of charts and I’m curious what they can tell us about what we can expect over the next 18 months.

    Ignoring seasonal trends, which may or may not hold up, charts of the past never tell you anything about the future, particularly 18 months out. People like to think they do, but then people like to think they can predict the future too.

    I KNEW you were going to say that!

  6. 6
    Marc says:

    RE: Azucar @ 5

    So did I. In fact, I originally had a preemptive Kary comment in there but decided to take it out and let him have his thunder. One thing you have to give Kary is that’s he’s consistent.

  7. 7

    RE: Azucar @ 5 – You should have made a prediction! Maybe with some charts of past posts.

  8. 8
    Erik says:

    RE: lordcecil @ 3
    Yeah, but it increases home owner’s happiness. You need to dip into your retirement if you want to own a shelter in Seattle.

  9. 9
    Blurtman says:

    There are external events occurring that may impact the RE market. Greece seems to be exiting the euro. Thar’s trouble in Italy and Spain as well, and closer to home, Puerto Rico. And the China stock market is looking quite volatile. If potential buyers’ see their equity holding lose significant value, the now less wealthy may shy away from also buying high-priced RE. Stay tuned.

  10. 10
    Mike says:

    Thanks Tim for the great charts. I think this was a question I had asked in a previous thread, or someone asked something very similar. It’s always good to be reminded that walking around the neighborhood and seeing signs seeming to pop up and come down pretty regularly doesn’t actually mean we’re back in line with anything like a normal market.

    The interesting thing to me in these stats is just how different the current market from 2012 on (after the worst of the bust had past) appears from both the periods pre-2007 bubble and the 2007 bubble peak. Time will tell, and eventually the numbers would seem to need to recover if for no other reason that new inventory is being added, but it does appear there has been a pretty dramatic down-shift in the new listing levels.

  11. 11
    Mike says:

    By Rebecca @ 1:

    I’ve noticed in my casual regular browsing of listings that there are quite a few houses sitting on the market for what seems like a long time in this super heated market, even though they seem well priced for the current market – like more than 30 days, sometimes more than 60. Is there a seasonal slow down or are frustrated potential buyers giving up and walking away?

    Nearly every house that sits for 30 days in a hot area has something wrong with it that isn’t easy to fix – IE: it’s overpriced for the few % of buyers willing to compromise on whatever the issue(s) are.

    Sellers don’t seem to be keeping listings on the market long when they don’t sell. In this market, if it’s been 30 days with no good offers, any rational seller should re-think their plan at that point. The few long hangers on tend to be damaged houses where the owner owes way too much given the current condition.

  12. 12
    greg says:

    we recently backed off our plans to purchase a property due to the high prices. we can afford to purchase a nice home in a nice area, but we just don’t see any value. It just seems silly to put so much into one sector , and one that could be rudely shaken up if consumer confidence stumbles along with our stock markets…
    I am surprised so many seem to think this is natural growth, it feels like everyone is in agreement , and is a little scary.

    Maybe PR is the place to buy?

  13. 13
    lordcecil says:

    Erik, pretty much. I’ve got my place and am fortunate to have done so.

    The magic question for housing is given a specific house A what would that house have sold for X years ago and what would it sell for today? That’s a hard question to answer. Perhaps even impossible. None of these charts showing averages and medians and market duration and tiers and new listings and blah blah answer that question.

  14. 14
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 12
    This is natural growth. We bounced off the bottom and now we are in the expansion period. Buy a place and come on here every day to read the data so you know when to pull the plug. The next thing that will happen is supply will exceed demand. When we get 8000 houses for sale on king county, start to feel scared. You are wasting your energy being scared now, it’s way too early.

    Luke I said before, I think we’ll bust in 2024. The Greece fiasco is not a new problem. They are finally putting pressure on them to get them to change.

  15. 15
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 9
    I think Greece will be saved. It sounded like there was a deal on the table but Greece didn’t like the terms. I’ll buy some more national bank of Greece stock. If I get lucky I may end up in sammamish after all.

  16. 16
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Erik @ 15 – The Zillowmeter has my home value right where it was before the crash.

  17. 17
  18. 18
    Mike says:

    By Blurtman @ 16:

    RE: Erik @ 15 – The Zillowmeter has my home value right where it was before the crash.

    My Zestimate is 15% above the July 2007 level… I’ll believe it when someone comes and offers to buy it off me at that price.

  19. 19
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Mike @ 11 – I guess the houses I’m noticing this with the most are the ones that would be in my price range and therefore attainable area were I in the market to buy. This is the lower end of what has been called the “middle tier” on this site. So lets say around 3-350k. I suspect that buyers in this range are much less likely to submit offers with inspections waived and are likely more concerned with running into problems they cant easily afford to fix. I think these house are at the same time being passed over by flippers because they have had the profit margin sucked out of them by higher asking prices. I’m thinking of several houses in the more southern areas of west seattle, where I live. It should be a hot but not ultra hot market due to its still very close in commute to seattle and although many of the sfh’s are small in size they still compete well with condos and town houses in price.

  20. 20
    Erik says:

    RE: Marc @ 2
    The more houses you own the better off you are in Washington state. Ray pepper owned 20 and the market collapsed. He simply rented them without paying his mortgage for years and used the proceeds to pay cash for new houses. His bank gave him money to give them back. Buy high or low. It really doesn’t matter.

  21. 21

    By Erik @ 20:

    RE: Marc @ 2
    The more houses you own the better off you are in Washington state. Ray pepper owned 20 and the market collapsed. He simply rented them without paying his mortgage for years and used the proceeds to pay cash for new houses. His bank gave him money to give them back. Buy high or low. It really doesn’t matter.

    I’m pretty sure that’s not true, although it’s not the complete nonsense that Jonness was spreading in the other thread. And it’s clearly something you don’t know the entire picture on.

    Seattle Bubble is becoming like Ferris Bueller’s high school, the difference being that the students believing the stories of Ferris Bueller’s illness were fictional and couldn’t suffer adverse consequences believing BS.

  22. 22
    greg says:

    RE: Erik @ 14

    2024 sounds like a fun number but of course is completely meaningless. As to natural growth, it is completely based on our federal asset inflation policy. I am not convinced we will have enough buyers for $500,000 lower quality homes, but I have been wrong before.

    ( I had a bunch of text bragging about how and what markets I called when others ran in the opposite direction, but then I remembered this is the internet)

    I am no expert, but I get scared when the world and its mother become RE investors and cant even tell you what their expected return is. clueless fools will often make money despite their poor risk taking choices, but sooner or later they become separated from their monies.

    for a small time guy like me this market is simply too high to invest in anything but outstanding value.

  23. 23
    greg says:

    RE: Rebecca @ 19

    the bottom or entry level in many areas seemed to be priced so high as to leave no meat on the bone for investors. people are buying a renting out homes for shorter term losses on the hopes of gains on resale. or perhaps with no real plan at all.

  24. 24

    By greg @ 22:

    RE: Erik @ 14 – ( I had a bunch of text bragging about how and what markets I called when others ran in the opposite direction, but then I remembered this is the internet)

    :-)

    I am no expert, but I get scared when the world and its mother become RE investors and cant even tell you what their expected return is.

    I concur, but I’d apply that broader than just real estate. I remember back in the day family members watching CNBC and buying stock for the first time. Scary stuff.

  25. 25
    Cornix says:

    By Rebecca @ 19:I guess the houses I’m noticing this with the most are the ones that would be in my price range and therefore attainable area were I in the market to buy. This is the lower end of what has been called the “middle tier” on this site. So lets say around 3-350k. I suspect that buyers in this range are much less likely to submit offers with inspections waived and are likely more concerned with running into problems they cant easily afford to fix. I think these house are at the same time being passed over by flippers because they have had the profit margin sucked out of them by higher asking prices. I’m thinking of several houses in the more southern areas of west seattle, where I live. It should be a hot but not ultra hot market due to its still very close in commute to seattle and although many of the sfh’s are small in size they still compete well with condos and town houses in price.

    Since this is my price range too I can speak to this a little bit. Generally these houses have major issues wrong with them. Buyers like me are looking to move into a livable home without extensive repairs and cannot gamble waiving inspection only to be stuck with a surprise major repair. Someone who can afford a 750K mortgage plus escalation can probably deal with unexpected issues better than a buyer who cleaned out their piggy banks to make the 20% down on 325K.

    More affluent buyers pass these places up because they are not in desirable locations with good schools. Although many are still in Seattle, a lot of them are in inconvenient pockets that are far from grocery stores, business centers, are down obscure streets, and are less served by transit.

    Investment buyers pass on these places because they can’t see enough profit from the purchase. Buying a 325K home in Rainier Beach, fixing it up, then renting it out will probably just break even.

  26. 26
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Cornix @ 25 – I totally get this and I agree whole heartedly. I’m still wondering how/why some houses aren’t even going “pending” at all before being returned to the market due to major problems turning up in inspection. I’m thinking of a particular example of this, a house I went to look at during its first open event that was near by and somewhat comparable to my own. It was priced in accordance with recent comps and had no obvious problems, all in all a cute well kept little house. The one strange thing about it was that the seller was offering a look at a sewer scope and inspection report – I assumed because they were expecting a flood of offers with some buyers willing to waive inspections. And then, nothing. Its been over a month and they just lowered the price about 3% of asking. I cant believe people in our price range are footing for pre inspections before even making offers so I’m starting to suspect a potential slow down in the market, perhaps spreading from the bottom up, where most buyers are just done with the market the way it is for now. It would be interesting if we could see some kind of breakdown in what potential buyers out there are looking to spend, as some way of seeing which tiers are most affected by the inventory levels. There’s no real way to gather those stats but if there has been a significant drop off in buyers in our tier then the story is a very different one than just a general round up of listings across all price points can tell. In a practical way it makes sense that people most squeezed by budget constraints will drop out of the market first, and the people still able to afford higher tier properties aren’t suddenly going to become interested in houses going for half what they can afford.

  27. 27
    redmondjp says:

    By greg @ 23:

    RE: Rebecca @ 19

    the bottom or entry level in many areas seemed to be priced so high as to leave no meat on the bone for investors. people are buying a renting out homes for shorter term losses on the hopes of gains on resale. or perhaps with no real plan at all.

    I have seen this in my own neighborhood, where “entry level” homes have sold in the $400-500K range and are then used as rentals. There is no way that pencils out cash-flow wise, so they have to be banking on appreciation to make up for their short-term losses (unless they put a huge amount down or paid all cash).

  28. 28
    Cornix says:

    By Rebecca @ 26:

    RE: Cornix @ 25 – I totally get this and I agree whole heartedly. I’m still wondering how/why some houses aren’t even going “pending” at all before being returned to the market due to major problems turning up in inspection. I’m thinking of a particular example of this, a house I went to look at during its first open event that was near by and somewhat comparable to my own. It was priced in accordance with recent comps and had no obvious problems, all in all a cute well kept little house. The one strange thing about it was that the seller was offering a look at a sewer scope and inspection report – I assumed because they were expecting a flood of offers with some buyers willing to waive inspections. And then, nothing. Its been over a month and they just lowered the price about 3% of asking. I cant believe people in our price range are footing for pre inspections before even making offers so I’m starting to suspect a potential slow down in the market, perhaps spreading from the bottom up, where most buyers are just done with the market the way it is for now. It would be interesting if we could see some kind of breakdown in what potential buyers out there are looking to spend, as some way of seeing which tiers are most affected by the inventory levels. There’s no real way to gather those stats but if there has been a significant drop off in buyers in our tier then the story is a very different one than just a general round up of listings across all price points can tell. In a practical way it makes sense that people most squeezed by budget constraints will drop out of the market first, and the people still able to afford higher tier properties aren’t suddenly going to become interested in houses going for half what they can afford.

    It might be a sign that a certain tier of properties have reached their top price, at least for now. Those properties are probably limited to the further north/south of the city. Not every sow’s ear can be made a silk purse I suppose. If more affluent buyers get desperate that will probably change.

  29. 29
    David B. says:

    RE: greg @ 22 – “2024 sounds like a fun number but of course is completely meaningless.”

    93.69% of Erik’s statistics are made up on the spot :-) .

  30. 30
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21
    I read his comments for years. He told everyone to stop paying their mortgage and buy auction houses. Unless he fabricated a story that took years to tell, he really did do that.

    Did you not read his comments?

    Ray Pepper 4 president!

  31. 31
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 22
    18 years is the most common interval between recessions. The last top was 2007. 2007 +18=2025. Scale it back a year to be conservative and you get 2024. This recession was extra deep, so it may last even longer. 2024 is a good conservative estimate in my opinion and not a wild guess.

  32. 32
    Erik says:

    RE: David B. @ 29
    Yeah, but I went from broke to a 128 thoundaire in the faces of these clowns on Seattle bubble that told me I was wrong. I was right that time.

  33. 33

    By Erik @ 30:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21
    I read his comments for years. He told everyone to stop paying their mortgage and buy auction houses. Unless he fabricated a story that took years to tell, he really did do that.

    Did you not read his comments?

    Ray Pepper 4 president!

    Yes I read his comments. His advise is bad advice and I’ve repeatedly said that. But my comment was about your claim that he owned 20 houses and then the market collapsed.

  34. 34
    jon says:

    By redmondjp @ 27:

    By greg @ 23:

    RE: Rebecca @ 19

    the bottom or entry level in many areas seemed to be priced so high as to leave no meat on the bone for investors. people are buying a renting out homes for shorter term losses on the hopes of gains on resale. or perhaps with no real plan at all.

    I have seen this in my own neighborhood, where “entry level” homes have sold in the $400-500K range and are then used as rentals. There is no way that pencils out cash-flow wise, so they have to be banking on appreciation to make up for their short-term losses (unless they put a huge amount down or paid all cash).

    Or they are banking on rents increasing over time.

  35. 35
    Blake says:

    RE: Erik @ 31
    >> “18 years is the most common interval between recessions”

    What an idiot… The hasn’t been even ONE period of 17+ years w/o a recession!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

  36. 36
    Erik says:

    RE: Blake @ 35
    I meant housing recessions failed agent.

    I will make another profit while you get high and post comments on this website again. You lost last round. Do you think you’ll be right this time? Seems unlikely.

    I use to be poor white trash like you, but I started thinking smarter and got out of a big debt and made a huge profit. Now I’m financially stable white trash.

  37. 37
    Rudolfo says:

    How do you define a “housing recession”?

  38. 38
    boater says:

    By redmondjp @ 27:

    By greg @ 23:

    RE: Rebecca @ 19

    the bottom or entry level in many areas seemed to be priced so high as to leave no meat on the bone for investors. people are buying a renting out homes for shorter term losses on the hopes of gains on resale. or perhaps with no real plan at all.

    I have seen this in my own neighborhood, where “entry level” homes have sold in the $400-500K range and are then used as rentals. There is no way that pencils out cash-flow wise, so they have to be banking on appreciation to make up for their short-term losses (unless they put a huge amount down or paid all cash).

    Well the other explanation is they expect inflation to pick up soon.

  39. 39
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 21:

    I’m pretty sure that’s not true, although it’s not the complete nonsense that Jonness was spreading in the other thread.

    Kary:

    Ray Pepper is an investment guru. You would do well to humble your ego and learn from him. That way, instead of buying your next home at the peak of the market, you’ll have the tools to cherry pick it at the bottom (like Erik, myself, and Tim did). Purchasing homes without a solid understanding of the real estate cycle is an extremely dangerous investment tactic.

  40. 40
    redmondjp says:

    By boater @ 38:

    By redmondjp @ 27:

    By greg @ 23:

    RE: Rebecca @ 19

    the bottom or entry level in many areas seemed to be priced so high as to leave no meat on the bone for investors. people are buying a renting out homes for shorter term losses on the hopes of gains on resale. or perhaps with no real plan at all.

    I have seen this in my own neighborhood, where “entry level” homes have sold in the $400-500K range and are then used as rentals. There is no way that pencils out cash-flow wise, so they have to be banking on appreciation to make up for their short-term losses (unless they put a huge amount down or paid all cash).

    Well the other explanation is they expect inflation to pick up soon.

    If so, boy are they in for a big surprise then!

    Economically, it looks like things are really starting to unravel on a global scale. Buckle up, people, there are lots of twists, turns, and bumps ahead! We will be somewhat insulated from it all locally, so long as the tech bubble 2.0 doesn’t pop.

    In the meantime, come to my neighborhood and buy a new Quadrant house for $1M. Or another custom-built for $1.598M on a busy street with one-way access to your driveway. Yes, that last one is the sister house to the one which came on the market one year ago at $1.298M, with a couple of price drops along the way, finally selling for $1.08M this past March. But somehow, the same house (with a much smaller garage) right next door is suddenly worth $500K more . . . a bit bubbly, don’t ya think?

  41. 41
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 33:

    Yes I read his comments. His advise is bad advice and I’ve repeatedly said that. But my comment was about your claim that he owned 20 houses and then the market collapsed.

    Come on Kary. You bought your house at the exact peak of the market, advised others that anytime to buy was just as good as any other time. And you rebuked anyone who claimed to understand that prices were falling and would continue to fall in the future.

    By contrast, Pepper advised those underwater (because they listened to your nonsense and bought at the peak) to stop making payments, continue to live in their homes for as long as possible, and use the money saved on rent for a down payment on their next home.

    The only one here who has given out dangerous advise here is you.

    You should get past this notion that you can read a book or work in the industry long enough to teach yourself how to become a good investor. In the world of investment, you’re either born with the necessary brain plasticity, or you aren’t.

  42. 42
    Erik says:

    RE: Rudolfo @ 37
    It’s obvious that I don’t completely understand all of the wording, but I get the concept,

    Read this:
    http://www.dce.harvard.edu/professional/blog/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

    The reason I like it so much is because it makes logical sense (to me) and it takes us through check points. We shouldn’t worry about prices dropping until we have excessive supply, which we are far from. I think the next top will be 2024 or later based on this and looking at what is happening in the real estate market. Sure I could be wrong, but it is likely I am correct.

  43. 43

    RE: Jonness @ 40 – Apparently you still haven’t used the tools available to you to understand what you are saying is false as to Ray.

    But as to my purchase in October 2007, you’re forgetting that I was a move up buyer and sold the other house. And I bought after the peak, so obviously I knew the market could go down. And as I’ve pointed out before, I’ve been getting free rent for almost 8 years now. Valuing that at $1,500 a month, net of the real estate taxes paid, that’s about $135,000 I haven’t paid in rent. And that’s also something the feds don’t tax me on. If I’d been paying rent as you would have apparently preferred I’d have had to have made $180,000 using a very generous 25% tax rate. But no, I shouldn’t have done that because the value of that house dropped in-between now and then, which to you somehow matters even though I’ve had no desire to sell.

    What I’ve done is fantastic compared to what Ray’s done. But just to be clear, I don’t have an issue with Ray suggesting that families need to put their own interests first. That’s not exactly the same detailed advice that a bankruptcy attorney would give, but there are situations where a family simply cannot and should not continue making mortgage payments. But that’s entirely different than the extremely questionable if not just downright bad advise to buy a house with the intention of not making payments and collecting rent. And also, my concern has always been the possibility of a deficiency after a judicial foreclosure. Ray’s advice has been bad advice and risky advice, but you’re too naive and gullible to realize that. And despite my prodding, you’re also to lazy to verify that out for yourself.

  44. 44
    Saffy The Pook says:

    Don’t stop believing, Erik. Critical thought and ethics are for suckers. Keep latching on to those who support your biases and don’t worry about entering into contracts in bad faith. I’m sure it’ll all work out for you in the end.

  45. 45

    I’m no economist – and I certainly don’t have a crystal ball – but it sounds to me like this is a great time to sell a house. And you don’t need two agents to do it – not in this market! A single broker listing for a total cost of 1% should work just fine…

  46. 46

    RE: Craig Blackmon @ 44 – Spam much? ;-)

    Just so others not on Craig’s email list know, this is his first or second day not on the NMWLS.

  47. 47
    Erik says:

    RE: Saffy The Pook @ 44
    I want to figure out how to do what Kary did and not pay rent for 8 years. Seems lucrative.

    Kary- do you think I can get by with free rent for 5 years in a stable real estate market? If so, I may need some help navigating the legal loopholes.

  48. 48

    RE: Erik @ 47 – I bought a house for cash.

  49. 49
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 48
    That’s awesome. I’ve gained some respect. I short sold mine like a fool and missed out on a lot of loot.

    You didn’t answer the question though… Can you not pay rent for a long time in a stable market like the one today?

  50. 50
    Chris says:

    So the Case Shiller report showed another +2.25%

  51. 51

    RE: Erik @ 49 – There is no risk free way of living in a house for free long term. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either ignorant or a con-man.

    If you owned a house free and clear you could probably go 3-4 years without paying the real estate taxes, but even that has its downside. But if maybe you had only 2 years to live, paying RE taxes might not be your highest priority.

  52. 52
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    I’m not sure I understand. You paid all cash in 2007 or you stopped paying your mortgage and used the saved money to pay cash for a new house?

    My dream is to not pay my mortgage for 5 years and reallocate that money to pay all cash for a new house like Ray pepper did multiple times. The opportunity may have passed, but I’m ready if it comes again.

  53. 53
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    Ray played lenders like a fiddle and left us tax payers with the bill. I only wish I was that smart.

  54. 54

    By Erik @ 52:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    Ray played lenders like a fiddle and left us tax payers with the bill. I only wish I was that smart.

    You don’t know all the facts. I don’t know how many times I need to tell Eric and Jonness to check the public records, but the rest of you should not believe this nonsense.

  55. 55

    By Erik @ 51:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    I’m not sure I understand. You paid all cash in 2007 or you stopped paying your mortgage and used the saved money to pay cash for a new house? .

    We had a house with a lot of equity, and a lot of unrealized tax gain.

    We got a HELOC against that house, and used that and some other cash to buy a new house for cash.

    We then sold the old house, paying off the HELOC and taking advantage of the gain on sale of residence exclusion for taxes (the same one you used on your condo). That means we don’t need to worry about that exclusion going away, or accounting for improvements made in that house years ago, and that we have a normal (high) basis in the new property.

    Then, after we sold the value of the old house dropped more than the value of the new house. Not sure what the value of that old house is now, because I haven’t checked for a while. But we moved to a better neighborhood, which much better atmosphere too.

    So, we’re living in a better house, in a better neighborhood and locked in some tax benefits. But Jonness thinks what I did was wrong, even though following his advice I would have had to earn $180,000 more to live in the same lifestyle.

  56. 56
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 54
    Thanks for sharing. Smart move on transferring money. I look forward to the next real estate crash. It makes sense to have some houses because it gives people the opportunity to make a lot of money.

    When I thought of the buy and bail idea, I saw a lawyer and he said, “you want to do a buy and bail I see.” I had no idea it has a name. I thought I invented it. I need to be able to understand this stuff so I can be ready. If there are any books you can suggest I read, let me know.

  57. 57
    greg says:

    By Erik @ 31:

    RE: greg @ 22
    18 years is the most common interval between recessions. The last top was 2007. 2007 +18=2025. Scale it back a year to be conservative and you get 2024. This recession was extra deep, so it may last even longer. 2024 is a good conservative estimate in my opinion and not a wild guess.

    averages provide little insight as when the next decline will actually occur, what is easy to see is a tidal wave of novice and wannabe investors who think are canny; when they are simply operating in complete ignorance as to the real risks

  58. 58
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 56
    Hey, I represent that statement!

    Seems like inventory will need to increase before we have another collapse in housing prices. Unfortunately I don’t have a mentor, so I’m just researching and winging it. Do you have any other suggestions? Should I sit and b!tch like these computer people? Should I pretend to be a wealthy investor?

  59. 59

    By Erik @ 55:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 54
    Thanks for sharing. Smart move on transferring money. I look forward to the next real estate crash. It makes sense to have some houses because it gives people the opportunity to make a lot of money.

    When I thought of the buy and bail idea, I saw a lawyer and he said, “you want to do a buy and bail I see.” I had no idea it has a name. I thought I invented it. I need to be able to understand this stuff so I can be ready. If there are any books you can suggest I read, let me know.

    Two books I highly recommend:

    How to Commit Bank Fraud,
    How to Commit a Federal Crime,

    Both books by Ima Dumbass

    One thing you should realize is that you’re not that anonymous on this website because of your detailing how Ardell helped you sell a condo in Juanita. So you’re basically telegraphing that you want to do things that are not exactly on the up and up. You’d probably have to be a little more high profile for that to be a huge issue, but it’s not impossible a bank or prosecutor would put two and two together. In addition, your credit rating would be shot. Again, Ray’s advice is not good advice.

  60. 60
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 58
    Oh, well I didn’t do anything illegal. I made sure of that. I don’t plan to do anything illegal.

  61. 61

    RE: Erik @ 59 – Getting a loan from a federally insured entity you don’t intend to repay is a federal crime. If it’s not federally insured it is still fraudulent, and may violate some local laws too.

    BTW, if the attorney you went to was referred to you by someone promoting a real estate scam (or a RE agent), I would consider their advise suspect if it was anything other than: Don’t do that!

  62. 62
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 60
    That was not the case. I never got a loan I didn’t intend to pay.

  63. 63

    RE: Erik @ 61 – I wasn’t saying you had, but I was afraid it was something you were considering.

  64. 64
    greg says:

    RE: Erik @ 57 – By greg @ 22:

    RE: Erik @ 14

    for a small time guy like me this market is simply too high to invest in anything but outstanding value.

    just so we are clear , I am not pretending to be anything like a big time investor…. :)

  65. 65
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 62
    I was just trying to figure out how to get ahead. I’ll go back to the hard way.

  66. 66
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 58 – No need to go to all that trouble, for he has told everyone his full name in this very comment section. I believe it was during your hiatus. We have already gotten our chuckles about his subsequent bragging here about questionable activities.

    Not the brightest bulb.

  67. 67
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 65
    Glad you enjoyed my bragging. Now kindly crawl back into retirement. I’m sure you made a pile of money writing code for people. Your services are no longer needed. K-bye.

  68. 68
    Rudolfo says:

    By Erik @ 42:

    RE: Rudolfo @ 37
    Read this:
    http://www.dce.harvard.edu/professional/blog/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

    Yes, I just did. It is an excellent article and very relevant to visitors of this blog.

    The 18 year interval thing is less important than the four phases of the real estate cycle that are described and the forces that govern them .

  69. 69
    Erik says:

    RE: Rudolfo @ 68
    Well put. I am not sure 2024 is it, but the detailed description of the 2 phases is great. This way we can gage about where we are at in the bubble. I got us at early expansion based on the super low inventory. We are at the last leg, but this last leg could last the longest as the curve is not sinusoiodal with a equal phases. For a cosinusoidal curve, 2008 was 0, 2010 would be pi/2 (90 degrees). Pi (180 degrees) was 2012. Now for the hard part…. 2014 was 3pi/2 (270 degrees). Adding this all up would make 2016 2pi (360 degrees), but I don’t think things will play out that way. Inventory says we still haven’t hit phase 3 (hyper supply). We are actually far from that. I think hyper supply is 5 years out. Fannie and Freddie are releasing allowing all the people that short sold to buy again in 4 years. That demand will stretch the bubble out until they are satisfied and add years of expansion.

    I am far from rich and I could be wrong. One missile could destroy my entire theory. I still think the Harvard theory of 2024 is most likely. If you buy now and sell in 2 years to avoid capital gains, you will likely come out ahead in this market.

    *Note: I changed my curve to cosine in my example cause I wanted to start at zero.

  70. 70
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 43:

    What I’ve done is fantastic compared to what Ray’s done.

    You can attack Ray all day long, but at the end of the day, he has more investment knowledge in his little finger than the rest of us put together have in our entire bodies.

  71. 71
    Jonness says:

    By <a href='#comment-250665' Kary L. Krismer @ 43:

    What I’ve done is fantastic compared to what Ray’s done.

    You can attack Ray all day long, but at the end of the day, he has more investment knowledge in his little finger than the rest of us put together have in our entire bodies.

    Those who followed Kary’s advice in 2007 are still underwater on their mortgage 8 years later. Those of us who followed Ray’s 2007 advice are living on the waterfront 8 years later.

  72. 72
    boater says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 55
    Hey Kary do you swap houses when you come close to maxing the primary residence tax deduction?

  73. 73

    By boater @ 72:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 55
    Hey Kary do you swap houses when you come close to maxing the primary residence tax deduction?

    LOL, I wish that were even a factor. But if those were the facts I were operating under I don’t think that would be a huge consideration. Let’s say you have $600,000 of gain and can exclude $500,000 of it. Not a big deal to pay tax on $100,000.

  74. 74

    By Jonness @ 71:

    By <a href='#comment-250665' Kary L. Krismer @ 43:

    What I’ve done is fantastic compared to what Ray’s done.

    You can attack Ray all day long, but at the end of the day, he has more investment knowledge in his little finger than the rest of us put together have in our entire bodies.

    LOL. I can see you still haven’t looked at the public records. I’ll give you a clue. Ray has something in common with Ardell and Losh. Your statements are at the very best extremely ignorant.

    Those who followed Kary’s advice in 2007 are still underwater on their mortgage 8 years later. Those of us who followed Ray’s 2007 advice are living on the waterfront 8 years later.

    I’m sure there are people who bought in 2007 and are still underwater, but there are also people who bought then who can sell at a significant profit. Do you not follow our local market?

    But my advice is generally to not try to time the market, to instead buy when your personal situation is such that it makes sense for you to buy. Most people weren’t doing that these past several years and now they are finding themselves in a horrible market.

  75. 75
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 74
    Totally disagree. Then you insulted a man that passed away recently. I may not be super classy, but have some respect.

  76. 76

    RE: Erik @ 75 – I’m sorry Losh died, particularly the way he died. I had a very good friend die from the same condition. But that doesn’t change the fact that Losh was a troll.

  77. 77
    Minimalist says:

    We too followed Ray Peppers example. Sitting pretty with several rental properties and a surprisingly high credit score a year and a half later in a downsized beach house on Puget Sound. Perhaps some crab Kary?

  78. 78
    Mike says:

    By Rebecca @ 26:

    RE: Cornix @ 25 – I totally get this and I agree whole heartedly. I’m still wondering how/why some houses aren’t even going “pending” at all before being returned to the market due to major problems turning up in inspection. I’m thinking of a particular example of this, a house I went to look at during its first open event that was near by and somewhat comparable to my own. It was priced in accordance with recent comps and had no obvious problems, all in all a cute well kept little house. The one strange thing about it was that the seller was offering a look at a sewer scope and inspection report – I assumed because they were expecting a flood of offers with some buyers willing to waive inspections. And then, nothing. Its been over a month and they just lowered the price about 3% of asking. I cant believe people in our price range are footing for pre inspections before even making offers so I’m starting to suspect a potential slow down in the market, perhaps spreading from the bottom up, where most buyers are just done with the market the way it is for now. It would be interesting if we could see some kind of breakdown in what potential buyers out there are looking to spend, as some way of seeing which tiers are most affected by the inventory levels. There’s no real way to gather those stats but if there has been a significant drop off in buyers in our tier then the story is a very different one than just a general round up of listings across all price points can tell. In a practical way it makes sense that people most squeezed by budget constraints will drop out of the market first, and the people still able to afford higher tier properties aren’t suddenly going to become interested in houses going for half what they can afford.

    Looking at SW Seattle $300K-$350K listing on the market more than 14 days, I’m only finding 3 homes… that seems completely normal in any price range. Even my neighborhood where the median is around $700K it’s not all that unusual to find a $300K-ish house that sits on the market for a month. The last few that has happened with, they were just a hair above tear down quality, on a busier street, and didn’t have any view potential from building up – hence developers/flippers weren’t jumping on them, and the repairs needed put them out of the range of many FTHBs. Meanwhile homes priced 2-3 times as much a block away were selling in 7 days. The less expensive houses just weren’t what buyers in the neighborhood were looking for, whether the buyer was an investor or a owner occupier.

    The other thing is you really don’t know until you have an inspection what’s wrong with a given home. In my case, the seller disclosed a crack in the sewer line, but that turned out to be 10% of the total work needed. To anyone looking at the purchase without seeing the inspection report, it looked like we got a screaming deal on the house, whereas in reality we bought a major fixer priced accordingly.

  79. 79
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Mike @ 77 – “Looking at SW Seattle $300K-$350K listing on the market more than 14 days, I’m only finding 3 homes… that seems completely normal in any price range.”
    I guess my assumption was that we weren’t dealing with a normal market. The whole low inventory/mad dash to snap up almost anything would suggest that almost nothing should be sitting on the market for that long unless its a ridiculously priced tear down. The house I mentioned in my earlier comment dropped to 289k from its initial 300k list price and therefore wouldn’t have appeared given your search criteria. I picked that house because given the current market conditions and over all appearance of the house it should have been sold by now, leaving me to conclude that either you are 100% correct and that house has a major flaw that becomes obvious to anyone doing more than the initial walk through (which is what I did during the open house) , or its a canary in a coal mine (perhaps an unmerited alarmist theory) or something else like seasonal slow down etc. It makes me wish I knew someone actively looking in that price range/neighborhood to go look at it and test these theories. Ah well.

  80. 80

    1) Seasonal slowdown started 2 to 3 weeks ago. It doesn’t show in the stats, as the beginning of seasonal slowdown results in 1 or 2 offers vs 5 or more offers. No change in number sold or days on market. Just sold with fewer offers.

    In some most popular areas that had 10 or more offers from Jan through April, they may never get to none. They get down to 1 to 3 and proceed back up again in the new year with seasonal slowdown never appearing in the stats. In other less popular areas that were 1 to 3 offers at their highest point, they will get down to 0 offers in the first week and longer days on market to sold.

    So just because houses continue to sell in 1 to 7 days and even bid out, that does not mean we are not in seasonal slowdown if that event happened between 2 buyers vs 12.

    2) Some houses are not selling because they are too small (Rebecca?). Inventory is not as high as it was more than 10 years ago because people have been buying larger homes that they never have to leave and more are passing on cute tiny houses they don’t see themselves living in long term.

    When the market turned down many buyers were advised not to purchase unless they were purchasing a home they could see themselves living in for 10 years or more if they “had to”. Buying bigger houses they don’t have to leave resulted in fewer homes coming back on market than is evident in these charts going back to pre-2003 when most home purchases were smaller homes that created “move up” buyers in the 3 to 7 years of ownership period.

    Looking at all residential property sold in King County with at least 3 bedrooms and at least 1.75 baths during “high season” of April through July:

    In 2001 9% of all homes sold were less than 1,000 sf.
    In 2006 only 5% of all homes sold were less than 1,000 sf.
    In 2012 only one half of one percent were less than 1,000 sf.

    So looking at that trend it only makes sense that there would be lower inventory of homes as people were buying fewer that they had to leave due to size of home.

    In 2001 33% of homes sold where larger than 2,500 sf.
    In 2006 36% of homes sold were larger than 2,500 sf
    In 2012 39% of home sold were larger than 2,500 sf.

    As fewer people buy tiny homes and more buy super large homes, there will be lower inventory because fewer people will need to move in the “have to” sense due to size of home.

    In the size range between 1,000 sf to 2,400 sf there is only nominal change in % of total homes sold over the period from 2001 to 2012.

    Required Disclosure: The stats in this comment are not compiled by, verified by or published by The Norwthwest Multiple Listing Service.

    It is no surprise that everyone said in 2009 and beyond “Don’t buy a house unless you can see yourself living there for at least 10 years.” So why are we surprised that fewer people are needing to move in less than 10 years from 2009? Wasn’t that the game plan?

  81. 81
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 80 – Thank you Ardell for the comprehensive response and insight! I suppose that could very well be the reason and the stats you cited do seem to support that as a likely reason. Perhaps what’s been hyped in this case is the reversal in preferences back to the smaller homes of yore.

  82. 82

    RE: Rebecca @ 81

    I tagged you in the smaller than 1,000 sf part of my comment to see if the home you were speaking about, and wondering why it hadn’t sold, was in that category. How small was it? Don’t mention the address, and I can’t look it up due to the rule of agents not being allowed to speak of actual listings. But curious if the reason you were seeing is “too small”.

    The actual numbers were somewhat astounding.

    604 sold under 999 sf in that period of 2001.
    463 sold under 999 sf in that period in 2006
    and…wait for it…only 31!!! in the same period in 2012

    using the same parameters and changing only the year. That’s a massive change, and I’m thinking maybe the house you are watching and wondering why not sold may fall in that trending down category. I checked it more than once to be sure because of the significant drop in number. The builders are ending up with most of them sold off market vs owner occupants buying them in the mls. So they never come back as cheap houses sold by owner occupants in prime neighborhoods and that portion of inventory is just gone as to inventory by tiers.

    Required Disclosure Stats in this comment are not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Sorry to keep repeating that…but it’s one of our almost 200 mls rules that I must do so. :)

  83. 83
    Azucar says:

    By Erik @ 31:

    RE: greg @ 22
    18 years is the most common interval between recessions. The last top was 2007. 2007 +18=2025. Scale it back a year to be conservative and you get 2024. This recession was extra deep, so it may last even longer. 2024 is a good conservative estimate in my opinion and not a wild guess.

    As you seem to be a bit challenged, I’ll point it out again. The last 4 cycles that were mentioned in the article that you linked were:

    17 years – (ended in 2006) ooh, looks pretty good for the 18 year cycle
    10 years – Uh, that doesn’t fit too well, but let’s keep looking
    6 years – Uh, yeah. 18 years. Ooops.
    44 years – I guess at least it is bringing the average back up around 18 years!
    18 years – Woo, hoo! You were right. The one that ended in 1925(!) was 18 years, as were a bunch of them before that. You are on to something!!!

  84. 84

    By Minimalist @ 77:

    We too followed Ray Peppers example. Sitting pretty with several rental properties and a surprisingly high credit score a year and a half later in a downsized beach house on Puget Sound. Perhaps some crab Kary?

    I see Ray is going back to his old pattern of having fictional characters come in and promote what he does. Back in the old days there were more fictional characters than actual customers! ;-)

  85. 85
    Erik says:

    RE: Azucar @ 83
    Ignore my logic and don’t buy then sugar. If you miss out on an opportunity, it wouldn’t concern me.

    Just looking at the expansion phase alone, we are a ways off from another collapse. My suggestion to you is to wait until 2024 and then buy a lot of houses. That’s what a loser would do, and you kinda fit that description.

  86. 86
    Azucar says:

    By Erik @ 85:

    RE: Azucar @ 83
    Ignore my logic and don’t buy then sugar. If you miss out on an opportunity, it wouldn’t concern me.

    Just looking at the expansion phase alone, we are a ways off from another collapse. My suggestion to you is to wait until 2024 and then buy a lot of houses. That’s what a loser would do, and you kinda fit that description.

    How do I “kinda fit the description” of a loser?

    Because I usually disagree with you?

    Because I usually point out significant facts that you have either accidentally or purposefully overlooked?

    Because I point out that your “logic” that uses a history of periods ranging from 6 to 44 years, with only one in the past 90 years being within 7 years of 18 years, as a basis for the fact that the current one will be 18 years, seems to be a bit shakey?

  87. 87
    Erik says:

    RE: Minimalist @ 77
    Kary doesn’t eat crab. Kary is only out for blood.

  88. 88
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 84
    I’m not fictIonal. I’ve never met Ray pepper. I think the advice he gives is great. Those that followed it did well. Those that followed your advice suffered. I never got to meet corndogs either, but is also much better than you at investing.

    You know law codes and that’s great. You have a useful skill. Wreckingbull knows computer code, but that doesn’t make him smart. I know that is an extreme example and trust me, I have a lot more respect for you than I do wreckingbull, but you get the point. Wreckingbull has made a lot of money I’m sure and he’s a complete moron. You know law, but I think you should take some tips from investors like Ray and corndogs.

  89. 89
    ronp says:

    My brain hurts from the stupidity of this thread. Hey The Tim, can you set up a “mute” for people who want to never see comments from select individuals?!?!?

  90. 90
    Mike says:

    By Rebecca @ 81:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 80 – Thank you Ardell for the comprehensive response and insight! I suppose that could very well be the reason and the stats you cited do seem to support that as a likely reason. Perhaps what’s been hyped in this case is the reversal in preferences back to the smaller homes of yore.

    There’s been a trend towards smaller homes but not so much below 1000 sq ft in the city. Once you get below that the land costs alone make owning the property quite expensive. Reducing the square footage below a certain point doesn’t reduce the cost of ownership/upkeep significantly so you’re paying only slightly less for a lot less usable space. It’s also very easy to over improve an impractically small home, since the highest and best use of the property (or any higher or better use for that matter) involves demolishing the existing structure. To conclude, I’d add “house too small” to the list of potential problems that keep a particular property from selling.

    I’m watching the renovations on a ~800 sq ft house near mine. It’s a highly unusual remodel in that every other house of that size was bulldozed within a month of sale. But this one went to a couple of owner occupiers and they’ve been rehabbing while living in it the past year. There’s definitely *some* demand for properties like this, but in the 3 years I’ve lived here this is the only sub 1000 sq ft house I’ve seen rehabbed out of 50+ fixers/tear downs that have sold in the neighborhood. With a decent higher-end remodel they might be able to get $500K for it, whereas a new build on a similar lot (busy street, no view) generally goes for $900K for a house 3 times the size.

  91. 91
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 82 – Yes, I didn’t link to it here because I wasn’t sure what the protocol was. It is a 2/1 and 670 sft. Honestly I feel naive never to have considered it a major factor, given that so many house in this general area are of that size/vintage. Still, I think one could fins a larger condo with 2/1 for the same price, but have to pay HOA’s on top and have no yard. I guess its all subjective. Those numbers are quite astounding and I’m befuddled. Trending away is one thing, that seems almost like something else, equivalent to developers having bought up a significant number of smaller houses and razed them AND a sea change in attitudes about the size of houses that are preferable AND super selective sink holes swallowing them up!!!

  92. 92
    Erik says:

    RE: ronp @ 89
    Uhhhhh, isn’t your brain capable of selecting which comments you want to read based on the commenter? Let me try and help you with these step by step directions. 1. Look at who is commenting. 2. Determine whether or not you want to read the comment. 3. Read the comment.

    I guess I took the ability to select what I want to read for granted. You also have the option to not come on this site. Hope this helps.

    If this doesn’t work you could try Facebook. There are probably more like minded people on that site.

  93. 93
    Rebecca says:

    RE: Mike @ 90 – Thank you for this insight as well. Its too easy to limit oneself to the kind of media portrayals of things that are in sync with ones own values. I admit I’ve never really seen living in a smaller home as a problem, even extolling its virtues on occasion. Between what you and Ardell are saying I am beginning to understand smaller homes are a niche, mini trend if anything at all . Which wont stop me from feeling good about our own 1000 sft home sweet home, but will help me adjust my expectations when we do inevitably sell it. Pretty interesting stuff all in all, the how. why and what we buy mixed in with the inextricable economic concerns like best use, re sale value etc. I’m learning so much from this site and the clever group it engages!

  94. 94

    By Erik @ 88:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 84
    I’m not fictIonal. I’ve never met Ray pepper. I think the advice he gives is great. Those that followed it did well. Those that followed your advice suffered. I never got to meet corndogs either, but is also much better than you at investing. .

    I know you’re not fictional, but you are naive. You believe the stories Ray tells. You believe Ray has done well. Just search the Pierce County Recorders’ records and you’ll learn Ray is FOS. I didn’t even know that until about two weeks ago when Jonness started spouting off about how well Ray has done and I did my own investigation. Based on what the record shows in Pierce County, not only is he not a great investor, but he’s not a great investor anywhere if that activity involves getting credit from real live banks. (And that would include corporate/partnership/LLP entities that he owns solely if there is no one else to guarantee the debt.)

  95. 95
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 94
    Okay, I will check it out later. Could be under his company name? I’ll check both this weekend. Heading for 4 wheeler expedition, so it could be later. I’ll call him personally and inquire if I can’t find anything.

  96. 96

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 94

    You have to be a little more careful throwing around acronyms these days, Kary. “FOS = An abbreviation, meaning “f-able-on-site”. Used to classify extremely sexy people who arouse others to an immediate, uncontrollable frenzy.”

    I’ve met Ray and I love him because he is a great husband and Dad and is always super involved in his children’s sports activities. But FOS? I don’t think so. :)

    I know you are referring to something else that is personal and derogatory and don’t. Just don’t. Some people like him and that’s OK. Accept it. Stop trying to discredit people by being a nasty person.

  97. 97
    Ray pepper says:

    good !!! We’re talking about me! Well, let’s discuss this. First rule of investing. Never, Ever, hang onto not producing assets. Until The Fed makes foreclosing penalties like that of child support or student loans people would have to of been brain dead not to walk away. I thought I have discussed this on prior threads about Nevada. You should Google Ray Pepper Lahontan Valley News Fallon Nevada. That’s a good read. You see in years past when you could do stated income, plop 10-20 percent down, close then wrap the Loan with an immediate He-loc to get your money back it was a no brainer. Win win. So I ( we) did. Many homes. 23 in my case. As market crashed, properties stayed rented until bitter end, but with very happy tenants all getting their cash for keys. Zoom forward. 2 of these properties still exist. Both in Pierce. Heavily Mediated with no end in sight. Thank you AG. You see Kary and others investing is NOT about credit or doing what’s ethically correct. We all must play our hand with the cards we are dealt. The housing crash was the BEST financial outcome for my family personally. Then you wait a few years, let Lexington Law take over, bounce your credit score over 620 and you start again all the while sheltering your positive assets and saying goodbye to non producing. It’s way above many of your heads and Pierce County records combined with Oregon tax search in Albany, then throw some Lyon and Churchill County records from Nevada and your head will spin but remember this.. I know it’s hard to believe. I never lost 1.00 and made money on each and every investment in real estate. The 3-9 years to foreclose has been a God Send and still with no end in sight for those still waiting! Maybe this is why Trump filed BK 11x on his companies and he gets hounded about this in the media. The fact is investing has no righteous path just the obvious for those who know how to find it. Btw. Check my LLC’s if you want to see a current portfolio of producing assets. Lastly, BK, for me.. Never. Never made sense . Too many producing assets to ever do that. But, I tell you this. If it made financial sense for me to ever file… I would be at the front of the line!

  98. 98
    Ray pepper says:

    As for Kary. He’s a FB friend. We just take different paths. He’s not an investor and Simply doesn’t know HOW. If he did I’m certain he would of made ALOT of different financial decisions the last 15 years. I only wish I could of bought even more in 2005-2007. The greatest gift real estate investors ever received and Obama on the way in was the cherry on the pie!

  99. 99
    boater says:

    I could see Ray’s advice working for the 2006-2009 period time frame. It was a period of essentially unrestricted lending with almost no standards and no investment on the buyers part.

    The question is could you do it again. Lending is much tighter and in general requiring provable income and more of a down payment so walking away is not cheap. You could take a heavy hit to your credit in 2008 because a huge portion of America took the same hit. At some point lenders have to lend and with so much of America having short sold or been foreclosed on they just have to be more understanding about that portion of your credit.

    I don’t think you could pull it off frequently enough to make it worth it in this environment but I could always be wrong.

  100. 100

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 96:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 94 – I know you are referring to something else that is personal and derogatory and don’t. Just don’t. Some people like him and that’s OK. Accept it. Stop trying to discredit people by being a nasty person.

    It’s not about discrediting Ray (other than trying to keep people from following his really poor advice). It’s really about two things.

    1. Proving “the Internet” is not enough for the average consumer to know what is going on when it comes to real estate. I’ve prodded and prodded and no one has seemed to be able to figure out what I’m talking about. You don’t discover what I’m talking about on Redfin or Zillow.

    2. Discrediting the idea that you should rely on a real estate agent for advice about when to buy. In the past I’ve taken some heat for not wanting to predict where the market is headed. Ray of course is famous for his “They’re all coming back” prediction which turned out not to be true. Apparently before that he had another opinion which also turned out to be false.

    Real estate is an area that attracts a lot of scammers and a lot of people who want to do things that they are not in a financial position to do. You need to be able to know how to avoid such people, particularly if you’re selling a property, and the average consumer is in no position to know how to do that.

  101. 101
    boater says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 100:
    Real estate is an area that attracts a lot of scammers and a lot of people who want to do things that they are not in a financial position to do. You need to be able to know how to avoid such people, particularly if you’re selling a property, and the average consumer is in no position to know how to do that.

    Or generalizing it more, the greater the leverage available the greater the number of scammers and frauds. If it sounds too good to be true it probably is. Can someone get away with it? Sure but that isn’t a guarantee you will be able to.

  102. 102

    By boater @ 101:

    Or generalizing it more, the greater the leverage available the greater the number of scammers and frauds. If it sounds too good to be true it probably is. Can someone get away with it? Sure but that isn’t a guarantee you will be able to.

    Banks are incredibly inconsistent in part because they tend to be very incompetent. But banks can and do act vindictively toward some individuals. So it’s effectively possible to get a bank PO’d at you because you’ve managed to upset one or two bank employees. And when that happens they have the resources and connections to make your life very miserable.

    If Ray is happy living his life risking that, that’s fine by me. My issue is more with his trying to convince others it’s the thing to do.

    To use an analogy, I once had a cat run from the bedroom, then across the living room at full speed, launching himself into the air straight at a table leg. His frantic adjustments in mid-air could not save him, his face hit the leg and he crashed to the ground. I didn’t have a problem the way he stood up and walked away in a manner that clearly said “I meant to do that.” But I would have had a problem with him if he’d tried to convince my other cats to start doing that! ;-)

  103. 103
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102 – life of high risk? Again we are all given a deck of cards in life. How you to choose to play your hand dictates how you live your life. I did not plan for the collapse of housing nor was I to blame. So as the path changed I was forced to make obvious decisions. Jealousy from incompetents, idiots who continued to pay, and fools who left their homes vacant were all around. I chose my path as did many in my investment circle. Zoom forward a decade later and it was the only obvious path. There was no brilliance. Just common sense. If you did a loan mod and your still upside down your a fool. There was never any risk at that moment in time. Until RE laws change and the ability to walk away from upside down assets becomes akin to student loan payments and child support then decisions are obvious for those who face it! Those who condemn and castrate others will always be the jealous, incompetent, and the biggest complainers in society.

  104. 104
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 100 – famous???? I’m famous? Cheerleaders here on SEATTLE Bubble? Not sure anyone agreed with me back in 2008. As many in RE walked away I applauded their obvious decisions. However, I emphasized do not EVER leave your home. So many did. Truly sad. Close friends took loan mods that are terrible and they remain financial idiots with their judgement day pushed further down the road. It just amazes me people still look negatively to those who walked away. The ones I know ALL have already repurchased and are living in their new homes. Those who didn’t or took a stupid loan mod are still in their upside down property. Not to mention their cost to sell.
    Fools surround us sputtering advice based on their “knowledge” they tout.
    Listening to investment advice from real estate agents I equate to the same value as a ride operator at the local carnival. They have no financial sense and if they did they would surely not be peddling real estate or living off sales commissions. So good luck Bubble readers! You are surrounded by financial fools that will always help you spend YOUR money because they have NONE! If they did they surely would not be here on Bubble !

  105. 105

    By Ray pepper @ 103:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102 – life of high risk? Again we are all given a deck of cards in life. How you to choose to play your hand dictates how you live your life. I did not plan for the collapse of housing nor was I to blame. So as the path changed I was forced to make obvious decisions. Jealousy from incompetents, idiots who continued to pay, and fools who left their homes vacant were all around. I chose my path as did many in my investment circle. Zoom forward a decade later and it was the only obvious path. There was no brilliance. Just common sense. .

    I think you’re giving yourself way too much credit.

    You bought a property to flip a couple of months before the peak of the market and were unable to dump it. You then started playing the game to extend the foreclosure process as long as possible, but carried it so far it became risky. And the risk happened–the bank started a judicial foreclosure! If the bank is not seeking a deficiency judgment in that action that is merely bank incompetence. By transferring the property into a corporate entity (which was sort of crazy given it was so underwater) I’m pretty sure you’ve given up any claim to homestead and homestead is what gives you the right to live in the house during the redemption period. (And as an aside, between an 8 month redemption period without a deficiency and a 12 month period with one, I would always recommend the creditor go for the longer period–banks waste far more time than four months on virtually every foreclosure, so why not purposefully take four months longer?)

    So bottom line is if you’re not already facing a deficiency judgment the only thing keeping that from changing is someone at the bank getting a clue and seeking a deficiency. So yes, I consider that risky, and no I wouldn’t want to be living under such a cloud.

    So common sense? Not hardly. You are however trying to make the best of a bad situation, which is understandable. I just think you may be pushing it a bit too far. The last several months of that free rent you’re after might end up resulting in a six figure judgment against you. Hopefully it won’t come to that, but that’s the risk you are taking.

    Finally, you accidentally fell into that situation, but IMHO no one should purposefully try to create that same situation. That would be so risky as to be plain nuts.

  106. 106
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary, that Pierce County property I cannot take full credit for. There are 3 investors on that one. There has been 5 loan services and it remains in mediation. There has been no payment made for nearly 9 years with no end in sight. In fact those 2 have been the MOST profitable of ANY property I ever purchased. Next mediation hearing is In late July. We pay our 200 as we did on 3 others and when everyone’s done talking we check back again in 4-6 months. The fact is nobody at Bank of NY Mellon has a clue because nobody has the note. They have as much right to that property as you do. They MUST Judicially foreclose but I predict another 3 -5 years on that one. However, Kary don’t forget the Sheriffs Sale which will occur someday. Who do you think will be buying it? Me? Obviously no. My money (well 1/3 of it). The home is coming back eventually but we will still be the owners. But, why rush it.? Time is on our side. A better one to dissect is the home 3 houses west of it. That one is an even better story with Wells Fargo. We keep turning down “financial incentives” to surrender but these last 2 properties have become huge cash cows and in the end the bank will see it our way. Best part Kary they are long gone off personal credit report. I did not like that partners didn’t have to explain these 2 away like I did. So with a little Lexington Law combined with AG letter stating trial mod was not accepted “legally and fairly ” per the Urban League of SEATTLE, they are long gone. Maybe I should write a book since I’m so “famous” here on Bubble! Ever find current portfolio in Pierce? Kitsap? Mason? Thurston? Kind of staggering isn’t it after such a housing crash? Understand why I don’t peddle 500 Realty? Am I retired?? Hell no!! This month I must attend 1 Med hearing and coach a basketball and soccer team.!!! Gotta stay busy!

  107. 107

    RE: Ray pepper @ 106 – I know you’ve had private parties you’ve granted deeds of trust to, so maybe you consider one or more of them your other investors. But you are the only party on the deed (prior to your transfer to the corporate entity), and the only party on the deed of trust to the bank. But I’ve ignored those deeds of trust in considering whether you’re going to suffer a loss, because since they are with private parties it’s impossible to know what the deal is. Just from the record though, it appears you still owe one party some money.

    And no, it’s not going to be the most profitable property you’ve ever purchased until the bank either is unable to foreclose (unlikely) or they do foreclose without seeking a deficiency. And if they do seek a deficiency, you’re probably going to owe them $200,000 by that point in time. Your profit right now is no more real than the loss on my house in 2010. Until the end, profit or loss cannot be determined. But nice spin on a nightmare scenario.

    BTW, I’m not sure why there would be a mediation hearing now that you’re in judicial foreclosure. I had thought that would stop that (and was one of the reasons to do a judicial foreclosure), but it’s not an issue I’ve looked at specifically.

  108. 108
    Ray pepper says:

    Check back on those 2 properties in 2017-18. Very high possibility you will see ownership ending in LLC. Deficiency judgement Kary? Not in this lifetime. Judge will see the miscarriages of justice that was committed on original note. When you have the AG, Urban League, and US with proof IN WRITING the only thing the institutions want is the property. After 8 years of lender paying taxes and insurance they seem to be very apologetic for the hardships I (we) were put through. 20k and 26k incentives is not enough to part ways………. Yet! Will update when we come to an agreement

  109. 109
    Ray pepper says:

    Oh and Kary I wish I had 23 of these ” nightmare scenarios”. If I did I would be living and coaching in Maui!!

  110. 110
    Azucar says:

    By Ray pepper @ 97:

    … investing is NOT about credit or doing what’s ethically correct. We all must play our hand with the cards we are dealt.

    …The fact is investing has no righteous path just the obvious for those who know how to find it….

    Actually, the way that you play your hand with the cards you are dealt is what defines what your ethics are. I see your argument (it’s a legal contract, and you are choosing to follow a path that leads to one of the outcomes of that contract… both sides knew what the possible outcomes were and the consequences were spelled out in the deal) and I’m not saying that I know what I would do in a situation where I was underwater… but there is an element of good faith in a mortgage contract.

    And… just because something is legal doesn’t mean that it is ethical.

  111. 111
    Ray pepper says:

    Personally, I never equate ethics with family or an individuals financial decisions. “Proper” ethical behavior is what led many thousands to make poor financial decisions which led to unneeded hardships on the family unit.

  112. 112
    Erik says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 111
    Thank you for sharing. I don’t know how to invest in real estate like you or I would have. I short sold, but I really regret not riding it out a foreclosure as you did. There aren’t financially smart people on here. You’re it. Any knowledge you can share is appreciated.

    Do you think now is a good time to buy investment properties?

  113. 113
    Blurtman says:

    Heh heh heh. Tim wrote “snatch.” Heh heh heh.

  114. 114
    Ray pepper says:

    Yes, Eric. There are always gems. Just less now. Even though it’s my listing I suggest taking a peek at Olalla listing for 95k on 5 acres. I get nothing if it sells and there have been tremendous amount of calls in the last week. Listing is not very old. Seller is out of town and I have never seen it just input the data. If the house is inhabitable… Giddy up!! He did a lot of stuff without permits but from what I heard its a “gem”. I plan on seeing it Monday.

  115. 115

    By Erik @ 112:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 111
    Thank you for sharing. I don’t know how to invest in real estate like you or I would have.

    First step is you make a really bad decision buying a property near the peak of the market.
    Second step is to do everything you can to extend the foreclosure process, to the point where the risk becomes extreme.
    Third step is to go on the Internet claiming you meant to do it and that you have it all under control.

    Ray can claim all he wants about the note being a sham or whatever, but the fact remains that the bank paid off a lot of his debt in exchange for that note. A court is going to be very reluctant to not enforce it, at least as the the principal. You can find a lot of people blaming the bank for their own decisions, and in that regard Ray is just one of many. But what he is not is some savvy investor. He’s just a person in a bad situation dealing with the situation rather ineptly at this point, but doing what he thinks he needs to do. He is my cat pretending he meant to jump into the table leg because he wants to maintain appearances.

  116. 116

    By Azucar @ 110:

    And… just because something is legal doesn’t mean that it is ethical.

    It’s not even clear it’s legal, but you make a good point. A lot of the revisions to the bankruptcy code/act over the years have been due to people abusing the system. And those changes adversely impact those who have a legitimate need to use the system later. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the deed of trust mediation system tweaked or even eliminated in future years when the legislature takes on more tasks. And if that happens, it will be because people like Ray abused the system.

    One thing that makes his claim entirely BS is though that when he made the very poor decision to try to flip a house in Tacoma in 2007, he used private party lenders to buy the property. The bank took one or more of those private lenders out when it made its loan to Ray. So it’s not like loose bank lending got Ray into this situation by allowing him to buy a house he couldn’t afford. In fact the bank the bank only loaned him about 80% of what he originally paid for the property. The bank’s lending, loose or otherwise, only allowed Ray to repay one or more of his private investors. It’s pretty hard to argue someone ripped you off when what they did was pay off your other existing debt because you asked them to do that.

  117. 117
    Ray pepper says:

    Personally, I think the only thing that really matters is if you made money on an investment. These particular 2 have made the most of any residential purchase and it continues to pay off every month. I Leverage my risk with partners Kary and going back I would have purchased that property and as many more as I could have in 2007. Except I’m just too conservative. However, I don’t need a portfolio that allows me to travel the world every 3 months when I’m 60. Just one that allows me to do what I want when I want. Wife chooses to work her nursing jobs with various Agencies and make her own schedule but at the end of the day 33.00 an hour, grinding it out in hospitals, only made sense to me for 5 years. I sense jealousy Kary. Lots of jealousy. Do you have a portfolio? What does it bring in every month net? Surely you don’t just have 1 paid off house that you both live in. Or maybe a duplex sitting in Burien that you paid off? Just wondering. People seem to slam you a lot but I would love to know. Maybe you truly are Millionaire Kary and then you will have earned my financial respect. Maybe I would listen to your investment advice. I’m only 48. I always listen to my elders. . Btw. I adore the banks. Im very friendly in my correspondence with them every 3-6 months. You should NEVER bite the hand that feeds you Kary. However, they simply must follow the law if they choose to extract these last 2 properties from our hands….if we let them Kary. Northwest Trustees sees it our way and someday they will too!! But, again. No rush !

  118. 118

    By Ray pepper @ 117:

    I sense jealousy Kary. Lots of jealousy.

    LOL. Yep, I’m really jealous of you! I want to follow in your footsteps so that I too can be facing a $200,000+ deficiency judgment. And I haven’t even brought up the federal tax lien filed in 2010 which apparently was still unpaid in 2014 such that it had to be dealt with in the judicial foreclosure action. I want to be so successful that I too cannot even pay my taxes! Yep, I’m so jealous of your imaginary fictitious success. I too want to make really stupid decisions like trying to flip a property in Tacoma in 2007.

  119. 119

    By Ray pepper @ 117:

    I Leverage my risk with partners Kary and going back I would have purchased that property and as many more as I could have in 2007.

    LOL. I don’t think you understand the idea of leveraging risk (which is a bit of an absurd comment–you leverage investments, not risk). You’re the only party on the note and deed of trust. You have all the risk! Your partners are apparently the bright ones in this arrangement.

    As long as I’m posting though, I did have a question about your multiple failed attempts to sell the property. The first two times you listed it the property was advertised as a 3 bedroom, 2 bath. Then it was listed as a 3 bedroom, 1 bath. Then a 2 bedroom, 1 bath. What happened to the bedroom? What happened to the bathroom? Seems pretty inept whatever the real facts are about the features of the house.

  120. 120
    ray pepper says:

    Fed Tax Lien.. That was a joke. you believe that was ever collectable? Not in this life time. We had Obama at our back during the Housing Crisis! That was off in 2012. Might want to recheck that. You never answered my question.. Whats your portfolio? Whatever happened to the bathroom? Oh…Big Flood..Allstate Claim. Upstairs toilet ran continuous for 1 week +. Upstairs which was never previously used by guy who died was just capped and returned to storage space/possible bonus area. Market was declining and after flood repair went into rental status

  121. 121
    ray pepper says:

    Kary, I did a little digging just for my own titillation and just as I thought. You and China own a home, that according to Zillow, is not even back to what you paid for it. Its in of all the places the crap-hole that is Renton. Sorry Ira…Although my best friend lives in Fairwood and I kind of like his development..But, RENTON!!Seems you were running a bit short on dough in August 2012 and asked Boeing CU for 30k. They granted it and if it wasnt for the 100k you plopped down you would be BURIED underwater? However your STILL underwater with the cost to sell in this state. Kary your buried! You might have to go back to Boeing for some more money!!!…***You could of asked me but I dont lend in second..or in your case third position…Your leveraged to the hilt! At your age!!!!….The sad part is I found ZERO other properties anywhere. I truly hope you have a 401k somewhere or something. Seriously though only 1 property? The upside down one you live in with a 30k second??????? Please tell me you have some properties outside of Washington?? Kary, you bought at the HEIGHT of the market in 10/2007???????Didn’t you listen to Tim with all the time you logged in on Bubble? Please tell us you own more properties? At least 1? No investment properties? Ardell, didn’t you ever dig a little into Kary and find this? Surely this came up at some point. A real estate agent that sells real estate for a living with only 1 upside down property that he lives in that is leveraged? At his age? Where did all the money go?

  122. 122

    By ray pepper @ 120:

    Fed Tax Lien.. That was a joke. you believe that was ever collectable? Not in this life time.

    What that I’ve posted here make you think that I believe you have any income or assets that the IRS could collect against? Of course it’s uncollectable!

    But I did think you’d come up with a better story than that. Rather disappointing. Where’s the tale about how you’re still contesting the tax and that you’ve hired tax experts who are kicking the IRS’s ass?

  123. 123
    ray pepper says:

    oh no! the 200k is long gone..Offer and Compromise Kary. Can’t walk from 10+ homes and not have the FED want something. Lets just say they accepted what I just paid for my new 4Runner. Did it hurt cutting a check ? It hurt like hell! I don’t fight the FED! Just the lil guys…In my case Bank of NY Mellon and Wells…My last 2 battles….

  124. 124
    ray pepper says:

    Tim, don’t take this thread down…its getting exciting now…Btw Aberdeen Toyota rocks! Find your BEST price ANYWHERE…Call Allen the GM he will beat it by 1000…Just bought wifes new Camry and my 4Runner there last month.. But, do your due diligence and find that best price AFTER the rebates….A good start is Olympia Toyota. They price their stuff low like Good Chevrolet…Aberdeen is a shit hole but they are quick there when you tell them you are coming. Remember Allen!…You can even buy our trade in that is still on their lot. The 2014 Black Pathfinder for 26500…They gave us 27k on trade so not sure how they are keeping the doors open. Its only got 5k but cant compare it to the 4Runner…off topic sorry.

  125. 125

    RE: ray pepper @ 123 – That response is completely non-responsive since I wasn’t talking about the tax liability (which I would have no idea of the amount of), but we’re really getting away from the point. It was started in the Buyer Misery thread where I responded to Jonness about your activity:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 54:

    RE: Jonness @ 52 – You believed that? Funny how none of that shows up in the public records. You might want to check the public records. Yet another instance where consumers really don’t have a clue what is going on regarding the activity of some of the agents who post here because they either don’t have the tools to check the claims or don’t know how to use the tools they have.

    I think that has been well proven by now, and we’re getting too far off topic, and even the second point I raised in post 100 above.

    It’s sad really how consumers eat up this type of BS. They want to think professionals know what they are talking about. They want to think that they are getting good advice. But really all they are getting is being fed a big pile of . . ..

  126. 126
    Ray pepper says:

    But Kary your still not answering. You bought at the height of the Bubble in 2007. After all this reading from Tim. You plopped 100k down. You borrowed 30k on it in 2012 again. You only own 1 upside down property. You have nothing else but debt. A lot if it! You are famous here. You are a professional. Please explain this?? How can you own nothing else in real estate? Other LLCs. Should I dig deeper ? Now you got me interested? What happened to your law license? Current on student loans? Update us! We want to know more about your Renton purchase !!!! And everything else??! If we are to listen to you all the cards must be on the table. Shouldn’t it??

  127. 127
    Azucar says:

    By Ray pepper @ 117:

    Personally, I think the only thing that really matters is if you made money on an investment.

    That says something about your ethics.

    I assume you also care if something that you did along the way might get you sent to prison….

    So… profit and no prison = Successful investment?

  128. 128
    Ray pepper says:

    Prison? Describe how this can occur please from defaulting on mortgages during the biggest housing crash in US History? Looking forward to hearing this!!

    Still waiting on Kary too! Crickets thus far on his 2007 residence at the height of the Bubble in Renton then sucking another 30k out in 2012. Come on guys. I took day off and want to read this before Women’s Soccer Championship.

  129. 129
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 128 – Glad to see you are back and posting, although there is something that I have been wondering about for a long time. Since I can think of no translation of, “they are all coming back”, which would be literally correct, what exactly was your meaning?

  130. 130
    Ray pepper says:

    Since It’s 4-1 USA and I continue to wait for karys answers and prison time I will tell u. But first Hope Solo looks on hot in red!!! Anyway, I stated that properties that were upside down would all be coming back via short sale, foreclosure, and deed in lieu. I further stated people would only stay stupid for so long and continue to pay on their upside down mortgages. there are financially incompetent people out there like Kary that keep doing it and justify it By doing it the ethically correct way. Others will justify it that things are better now with their mtg debt less but they forget it costs nearly 10% to sell in this state. So they will again face this dilemma. Just kicking the can down the road Kary. Better pay down that mortgage quicker and get some more sales. Oh wait. You and your wife have no listings. Oh oh. Gonna BECU it again for another 30k. ??? Hope I’m not being too harsh!!?? But, I truly want to see why he bought in 2007 with all of Tims advice and all his blogging. How can this happen? Btw. your above 75% LTV and BECU won’t touch you for another second. Getting Time to unload it Kary In this up market. Your boat is filling with water !!!

  131. 131
    Erik says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 130
    Kary is pig headed.

    Mr. Peppers: I just cured cancer!

    Kary: yeah, but the clinical trials show there is a possibility of getting dandruff from the medication, so nobody should use the medication.

    Let Kary and these jealous programmers go down with the ship. I’m jumping off.

  132. 132

    By Ray pepper @ 126:

    But Kary your still not answering. You bought at the height of the Bubble in 2007. After all this reading from Tim. You plopped 100k down. You borrowed 30k on it in 2012 again.

    I guess some licensed agents can’t even get the facts right, so maybe I’m holding consumers to too high of standard. I paid cash for the property and then got a HELOC in 2012. Not sure if $30,000 was the maximum amount of the HELOC, but that’s not what is owing. And no, even if I owed $130,000 I’d hardly be upside down.

    The difference though between you and me is we both had a house to sell at about the same time. I managed to sell mine because I knew how to list it and knew to adjust the price quickly when it wasn’t selling. I was successful, and you were a miserable failure. But then after failing miserably you come up with this spin which even makes an “offer and compromise” to settle your IRS debt sound appealing. It would be laughable if it weren’t so convincing to ignorant and gullible consumers.

  133. 133

    By Ray pepper @ 128:

    Prison? Describe how this can occur please from defaulting on mortgages during the biggest housing crash in US History? Looking forward to hearing this!!

    Well, if your trying to get a loan modification while hiding assets, I would guess that’s probably criminal. It’s probably even criminal to request a modification hearing if your real goal is as you claim, to just stretch out the time of your ownership of the property.

    If your offer in compromise with the IRS didn’t fully disclose all of your assets, that’s probably criminal.

    And if you’re actually doing the things you claim to be doing in Nevada, that’s probably criminal too, but that’s not what you asked since that doesn’t involve buying a property after the crash.

  134. 134

    RE: Erik @ 131 – Seriously? Are you really that dense? I guess the BS meters of some consumers are incredibly defective.

    You have learned that Ray bought at the peak in an unsuccessful attempt to flip a property. That tells you nothing?

    You learn that a judicial foreclosure has been started against him, and that the only thing keeping the bank from seeking a deficiency judgment (if it isn’t already) is just the bank’s decision. That tells you nothing?

    You learn that Ray had a tax lien filed in 2010 which he settled with the IRS. And that tells you nothing?

    Most people think of successful investing as generating significant wealth (net of paying taxes). If your definition of investing is to suffer incredible losses and tax liabilities, and to have to probably do a lot of underground financial tactics. then go ahead and be like Ray. Most people don’t like to live like that.

  135. 135

    By Ray pepper @ 128:

    Still waiting on Kary too! Crickets thus far on his 2007 residence at the height of the Bubble in Renton then sucking another 30k out in 2012. Come on guys. I took day off and want to read this before Women’s Soccer Championship.

    I halfway thought that Jonness was just another of your alter-egos, and I’ve explained this to him several times. But here goes again.

    We had a house in Seattle with a lot of equity. We took a HELOC out on the Seattle house to help buy our current house for cash and then sold the Seattle house. After the market fell the Seattle house dropped in value far more than the Renton house, not to mention being a better house in a better neighborhood. We improved our situation and our financial situation over staying put.

    There were several reasons we sold the Seattle house, but the main ones were locking in the excluded tax gain and avoiding having too much exposure to real estate (basically realizing that prices could drop). Also, I have little desire to be a landlord.

    So anyway, my decision made sense and has worked out incredibly well. Your decision was poor and worked out extremely poorly. But you have this real estate agent BS spin. You’re real good at it. Almost as good as this guy. http://static1.972mag.com/wp-content/uploads//2010/08/Iraqi-Information-Minister.jpeg

  136. 136
    Ray pepper says:

    Guess, probably, guess, probably, probably… Kary, listen to yourself. I probably guess I could end up in prison but not for anything real estate related or my offer and compromise. You apparently paid cash for real estate. Your cash has dwindled and your taking out loans to cover living expenses. You will go broke at the current rate of your spending. You did NOT plan for the future did you? It angers you that someone 20 years younger has a portfolio while you have a sinking asset. Oh Kary… I truly thought after all these years U had something to offer clients. You have squat. You own nothing. You peddle yourself for 6% making people think you actually know what your doing. An attorney turned real estate agent is enough to raise a red flag to a potential customer. Get some listings. Sell something. Too much time on Bubble! Stop taking loans against your house. It’s all you got. Soon you will be applying for a reverse mortgage if you keep this up!!

  137. 137
    Ray pepper says:

    Trump filed BK 11x. He seems to be doing ok. Stayed out of prison. Running for President. You think he’s heading there too? you are like all the others. Great at spending other people money because you have none and when you did you didn’t know how to use it. Happens to most everyone. I see it all the time. Keep peddling Kary. You have a decade left in this field and by then all the dinosaurs will be mud. But, seriously how can an agent and his wife survive with no listings? Do you have any buyers that you closed a sale for in 2015? 2014? I will check and report back

  138. 138

    By Ray pepper @ 136:

    Your cash has dwindled and your taking out loans to cover living expenses.

    The difference between me and you is I post facts. I don’t make stupid ignorant guesses. The HELOC wasn’t to cover current living expenses. If you knew anything about legitimate financial matters, then you would have known that was possible, if not likely.

  139. 139
    Ray pepper says:

    Legitimate financial matters?? Tell us? I have no shame in my offer and compromise. I made the offer and IRS compromised. It hurt but sometimes you have to give to get. I never fight the Fed ! How many more legitimate financial matters you have coming down the pike? Need to plan ahead Kary. Hate to see more loans on your own home.

  140. 140

    By Ray pepper @ 137:

    Trump filed BK 11x.

    Nope, pretty sure Trump never filed bankruptcy. He had some legitimate entities that filed.

    You really should stop. You’re embarrassing yourself not only with your admissions of the large tax liability settled in an offer in compromise (something I made no reference to), but also with your ignorance of basic facts and basic financial matters.

    Oh, and BTW, the reason I put “offer and compromise” in quotes is it’s “offer in compromise.” You can’t even get that right. But you’re the expert! I know. Erik told me!

  141. 141
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary, he filed, his entity filed , it doesn’t matter. He put money out there and lost. Then was forced to file chp 11 numerous times. He’s a risk taker. Most wealthy people are. Then there are the others. The Karys of the world behind the PC giving advice ! One thing we both have in common is our narcissistic tendencies. China has told you that hasn’t she. I’ve been told that. you never answered my questions on no listings or sales. What are you doing? Tube8??

  142. 142
    wreckingbull says:

    These comments are pathetic and creepy.

  143. 143

    By Ray pepper @ 139:

    Legitimate financial matters?? Tell us?

    Sorry I wasn’t clear. I was trying to distinguish between what normal intelligent honest people do, and the types of things that people in financial trouble do in order to get by. You know about the latter, but not the former.

  144. 144
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary in the last year you sold a crap box in tukwila for 140k and a manufactured home in crappy Shelton? Are you even qualified to discuss anything in/re to real estate? I mean seriously your commissions are barely 10k. why is this? Please advise?

  145. 145
    Ray pepper says:

    But it’s fun! Let us play!!! Tim is!!

  146. 146

    By wreckingbull @ 142:

    These comments are pathetic and creepy.

    You’re right, it’s going well beyond the two points I was trying to make. Eric though proved the one point with his most recent comment, while simultaneously proving it was pointless to try to even prove that point. Some people are just susceptible to BS from real estate agents.

  147. 147

    RE: Ray pepper @ 144 – I’ve always avoided saying how little business your entire firm does, or the other alternative models Tim sometimes promotes, because I assume it violates NWMLS rules. I made an exception in some forums for Craig because other agents disclosed it first.

    But to answer your question, you need to also search for my wife’s LAG number. Virtually everything we do is split 50/50 and who is on the P&S agreement for the buyer almost random. Yet another thing you got wrong. You really are embarrassing yourself.

    And the reason I was on those two transactions was the Tukwilla one was extremely complex due to the sewer connection charges down there and the property being a foreclosure. The other property was one my wife never set foot on. On both though she was a co-agent, as is the case with me for most our transactions.

  148. 148
    Ray pepper says:

    But what kind of Agent that offers advice in real estate has 2 cheap sales in a year, owns only 1 leveraged home, is s former attorney turned real estate agent, and is on Blog 24/7? Again, I hope your not sick or something. Still feel bad about bashing Losh now he’s dead. Are you sick?

  149. 149
    Ray pepper says:

    Will check China’s sales tonight. Now that will make sense if she truly has closed sales. Good! Whew!! our sales are also insignificant. We take on Buyers we like and send the others to Red fin. As for listings I do all those 500 listings and they are also insignificant. We have no overhead though and our office building is completely rented yielding 1k s month in just rents of the house and condo. We are travelling too much but the partners don’t care. They are too busy at MSFT, Amazon, AT and T, and Chicago Title.

  150. 150

    RE: Ray pepper @ 148 -Whatever Ray. Sorry I upset you. But in the future, please try to get your facts right about me. I am an attorney. You got that right. The rest is just the pathetic rantings of someone who got called on their BS.

  151. 151

    RE: Ray pepper @ 149 – This isn’t about your pathetic brokerage. It’s not even about your failure as an investor. It’s about your spin on your activities and consumers believing it.

    Seriously, I’ve never heard anyone make an offer in compromise sound so good!

  152. 152
    Ray pepper says:

    Are you still a licensed attorney? You know I’m an RN still licensed. I don’t consider myself one because I’m out of practice. I’m what’s termed RN retired in my licensure. What is yours? I never take any of this personal. No shame in my (our) investment decisions…ever! But, I truly believe you are not one to give investment advice on real estate because you have none. How do you represent investors? Landlords? Homebuyers? You have nothing!!?

  153. 153
    Ray pepper says:

    Answer me this? Are you qualified to give real estate investment advice? If so, on what basis? For exp. if I needed surgery I would find surgeons who practice and have a track record in the field. With very little sales, no investment experience, admitted disdain for being a landlord, what do you bring to the buyer you represent. Your no longer an Attorney either. What do you have? With Ira we get wit. With Ardell some personality? With Kary??? I’m grasping but cannot come up with anything.

  154. 154

    By Ray pepper @ 153:

    Answer me this? Are you qualified to give real estate investment advice? If so, on what basis?

    To answer your other question, yes I am still licensed. There’s this website called wsba.org . . ..

    To answer this question, I don’t give investment advice, even though I happen to be very familiar with real estate investing. I’m not even sure the Department of Licensing would support a real estate agent giving investment advice. That is probably and area where most agents would be legally required to refer the client to experts. RCW 18.86.040(1)(c) and 18.86.050(1)(c). And while I might occasionally give some advice that might be legal in nature, due to those same statutes I do refer clients out to real estate attorneys. Better safe than sorry and on big issues better to get a second more detached opinion.

  155. 155
    Ray pepper says:

    Ok. You do not give investment advice. Understood. That’s good because we both know you shouldn’t based on no experience. So why would a buyer engage your services when buying a home? What do you offer to earn their 3%? I’m being serious and not trying to be rude. We both agree nobody needs anyone to find them a home. It’s all out there for everyone. If you don’t find a client the home, and you offer no advice, is it for writing up the boiler point MLS contracts. Is that where the 3% is earned??

  156. 156

    By Ray pepper @ 155:

    Ok. You do not give investment advice. Understood. That’s good because we both know you shouldn’t based on no experience. So why would a buyer engage your services when buying a home? What do you offer to earn their 3%? I’m being serious and not trying to be rude.

    Well first, I never said I had no experience. I said I was very familiar. Try to stick with correct facts.

    Second, I am good at valuing properties, as of course are some other agents. I’ve testified live as an expert witness a couple of times on valuation and my side beat the other side even though the other side was always represented by an appraiser as an expert. Note knowing about what a property is worth today (or at some point in the past) is knowable. Claiming to know what it will be worth in the future is BS. That’s the realm of bad real estate agents.

    Third, I’m very good at keeping my clients out of trouble and helping them make the best decisions. And part of that involves knowing how to search the public records. The only time I failed at the best decision portion of the task for a seller was because my procedure at the time didn’t include searching a particular source, which I now do search. In contrast, very few if any agents do any of what I do. And the only time I’ve failed at the keeping out of trouble portion involved earnest money disputes, but there’s no way to test in advance to see if a seller is a stupid idiot who is incapable of understanding Form 35. One of those stupid sellers was even a law student, so if I’d had to have guessed I would have reached a different conclusion as to the result as to the intelligence of that person.

    Fourth, I understand that I am their agent. It is not for me to make decisions for the client, it is my job to give them advice in making decisions, and when necessary when to seek advice from others. So I don’t try to second guess their decisions even though a lot of client decisions would not be the decision I would make. If I see a defect in a building or a legal issue, I will point that out, and refer out if necessary, but I understand it’s the clients’ ultimate decision whether to buy or sell and if buying, what and where to buy.

    Fifth, I actually preview properties! I think it was Ardell who was shocked that I still did that. But today we drove by or went in about 15 properties and only thought two or three were worthwhile. Not previewing would either waste a lot of client time or leave many properties not considered.

    I’m sure there’s more, but that’s just off the top of my head.

    Edit: Is it too late to mention the wife? Having a second person to bounce ideas off of and to review contracts is invaluable. From 2008: http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/2008/01/29/dual-agency-husband-and-wife-teams/

  157. 157
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 156 – previewing? I find clients LOVE to look at homes. The more the better. Im certain that is NOT a great use of your time other then self titillation. Being a good judge of value ? Hmmm. ok…I found investors to be the BEST judge of value because their money is on the line. Keeping clients out of trouble? Well, I hope so. In 23 years I have never had a client “in trouble.”….
    What I like the most is that YOU value yourself in the RE transaction and that’s good enough for me! Carry on Kary and I will keep you posted on the final 2 properties that I believe will have an EXCITING end to the story that you will see on the tax records. Remember this …look for an owner that ends in LLC and you will know who retained control and you just may see that house back on the market with the mysterious 3rd bathroom they may reappear and on the other Bank of NY Mellon throwing their hands up and seeing a Loan Mod that will make your head spin! 2016-2017+

  158. 158
    Azucar says:

    By Ray pepper @ 128:

    Prison? Describe how this can occur please from defaulting on mortgages during the biggest housing crash in US History? Looking forward to hearing this!!

    Maybe you missed part of my post… What I said was ” profit and no prison = Successful investment? ”

    I said “NO” prison. But you seem to have diverted or misinterpreted what I was saying to make it less clear that I was talking about the ethics of the business decisions you are making.

    What I was talking about was lack of ETHICS, not possibly going to prison. And you have been clear about where your ethics are. Entering into a mortgage contract in bad faith (i.e. with the plan to not actually pay it even though the contract says that you promise that you will) will probably not land someone in prison, but it does reflect on the ethics of the person entering into the contract. Go ahead and rationalize it by making a distinction between “business ethics” and “personal ethics”, but if it’s the same person making the decision it’s a pretty shallow argument. And to say that “it’s ok because that is exactly how the banks act, as well” (which is true, it IS how the banks and other businesses act) does not make it right. Ethics is about doing what is right regardless of what everyone else is doing or what you can get away with.

  159. 159
    Azucar says:

    But I also acknowledge that, as Kary mentions, if you committed fraud or concealed assets from the IRS during negotiations it’s not impossible that prison could become a factor. But like I said, my point was that even if you did not commit any crime (i.e. “NO prison”, which was statement that you were replying to) it does not mean that your practice is ethical.

  160. 160

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 156 – Here’s another one. I finally figured out why you thought I only put $100,000 down on the house I bought in 2007. You don’t know how to read Realist reports! Guess what, that $337,000 loan in 2006, well that wasn’t me because I bought the house in 2007. Pretty rookie mistake.

    But it’s important to your question. One of the things a buyer needs to know before making an offer on property is what a seller likely owes. So they have to have an agent who can recognize HELOCs and be able to determine which deeds of trust have been reconveyed. I’m not sure how you even function as a buyer’s agent having failed twice in assessing my situation (missing the HELOC and thinking a prior owner’s loan was mine). That’s pretty basic, and the stuff that separates the good agents from the bad. Sure sometimes a seller will have paid down a loan early, but that is fairly rare. I only remember being surprised twice, and one of those times I was the listing agent.

    And another thing that makes my services more valuable than the typical agent is I actually know how to write a contract that the seller can just sign without making any technical changes. And I know how to tailor the buyer’s offer to the situation–an offer I write on one property will not look like the offer I write on another property, depending on the situation. Both those things are extremely important in multiple offer situations, because between two close offers the seller will pick the one that they can sign and create mutual acceptance, rather than have to counter and get uncertainty. I think it was probably 2012, but we had seven multiple offer situations one year, won five of them and weren’t even the highest offer on two or three.

    Finally, I do want to add that I am in no way suggesting my commission is always 3%. I was not responding to that portion of your question, but merely answering about what made my services superior to most other agents.

  161. 161

    By ray pepper @ 123:

    oh no! the 200k is long gone..Offer and Compromise Kary. Can’t walk from 10+ homes and not have the FED want something. Lets just say they accepted what I just paid for my new 4Runner.

    BTW, I hope you didn’t just go to one of those low end companies which advertise they do offers in compromise without at least checking to see if there was a possibility of contesting the tax. In Washington state it’s not 100% clear how the tax gain is determined (there are at least two possibilities), and that’s probably true in some other states. If you don’t remember anyone mentioning recourse and non-recourse, I suspect you went to the wrong tax person. As I recall, offers in compromise can come back and bite you in the butt later, so agreeing to one with an inflated number for the tax owing could be very damaging. And it’s even possible that with the right accountant you might have gotten that tax bill down to the cost of a used Toyota Corolla, without the burdens of an offer in compromise.

  162. 162
    Ray pepper says:

    I never entered ANY contract knowingly going to default. ever!!! Again, life doesn’t always go according to plan. We are forced to adapt to changes in our environment. How you adapt will dictate your financial outcome. I chose the obvious path as did many thousands of others. Many more thousands, the fools if you may, chose their path. They are the criers and finger pointers. Always finding others to deflect their own pain because of their own stupidity.

  163. 163

    By Azucar @ 158:

    Entering into a mortgage contract in bad faith (i.e. with the plan to not actually pay it even though the contract says that you promise that you will) will probably not land someone in prison, . . ..

    That is “probably” correct if you mean that “probably” the chances are fairly low as a percentage. But if you want to improve your odds of going to prison what you would do is post on the Internet under your own name about how you are doing that, and also encourage others to do that too. Then you would keep that up even when the bank has started a judicial foreclosure, because I’m sure attorneys for banks probably don’t have access to the Internet. /s

    I don’t remember the outcome of this because I wasn’t involved directly, but I do remember one person who was either indicted or at least under investigation for not repaying some commercial loans, even though it was fairly clear that the reason for his financial troubles was the failure of his own bank. That bank failure caused the construction advances to stop, which sent the whole project down the drain.

    Banks can have that much power that they affect the action of prosecutors! 20 years ago (or so) in Kitsap County they used to prosecute people for bad checks for relatively small amounts–under $5,000. In contrast at the same time in King County you probably need to commit fraud in an amount over $1,000,000 to be prosecuted, unless you defrauded the wrong person with political connections. Banks have political connections.

  164. 164
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary does it really matter? Your upside down from when you bought it in 2007. You bought at the Apex of the market not listening to anything you learned from Tim. Of all people you should of known better. You have obviously logged the most time and didn’t learn anything. Paying over 400k plus an additional 5-6% to sell you are BURIED! In Renton? Enough said! And Kary… Please. Every investor looks at what a seller paid for their property and what they owe. No intellect there. Time is very valuable for true investors.

  165. 165
    Ray pepper says:

    Oh I assure you Kary I have the best accountant in the biz (Jenny) and the best bookkeeper (Rachel). I never mess with the Fed and YOU have a greater chance of getting bit in the butt then I by some possible error. Before I cut a check for anything I try every other option. Again, though it was a small price to pay in the big picture. However, it was the price of a new 4Runner!

  166. 166

    RE: Ray pepper @ 164 – Wow, you think you are able to give investment advice and you come up with that nonsense? You seemingly know even less about real estate than most consumers.

    What part of living in the property without paying rent for 8 years, benefiting me some $180,000 didn’t you understand? Contrast that with your purchase which resulting in your entering into an offer in compromise for apparently a similar amount of tax debt and still potentially being on the hook for another $200,000+. You’re going to be critical of my decision?

    And what part of the market has recovered don’t you understand? Do you also not know how to use the NWMLS Matrix system, just like you don’t know how to use their Realist system? Is that why you used Zillow to try to figure out what my house was worth? ROTFLMAO. Very professional. In any case, as I mentioned before it really doesn’t matter what the property is worth until I at least have an interest in selling. And you think you’re qualified to give investment advice?

    I’ve owned real estate since about 1978. After I first purchased values plummeted, particularly condos which is what I bought. But I sold it for about 2x what I paid and have lived in owned property ever since (the exception being the 2.5 months we rented when we remodeled the Seattle house.) So I’ve done pretty well with owning housing, and why I didn’t panic in 2007 and start claiming “they’re all coming back.” Only someone who is totally incompetent as an investment adviser would even begin to question my housing transactions.

    Earlier I said that DOL probably wouldn’t like most agents providing investment advice. Given your dismal record and your comments here I would strongly suspect that DOL would not be happy knowing you even think you can provide investment advice.

  167. 167
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary, you seem to live your life running scared of so many things that could happen. Isolated cases that happen years back seems to have affected your financial decision making. Living your life in FEAR is no way to live! I will state this again. People are fools. You will agree with this. Apparently I live a life of high risk in your opinion. I have no debt to speak of ( unless you count the 2 Pierce County properties). Those 2 properties are in Mediation. I have no control over it taking 6 months to get an appt. then another 6 for a follow-up. Every rental in my portfolio is disclosed. It must be for mediation. There is no question of ability to pay . The mediations have everything to do on what is to be paid. You see Kary, you don’t accept an outcome that places you underwater on an asset. Case in point your home. Until Bank of NY Mellon and Wells sees it out way we mediate. If we reach no agreement then we will revisit the property down the road at Sheriffs sale. However, as I preached endlessly, what’s the rush. Time is on our side!

  168. 168
    Ray pepper says:

    If DOL is reading this blog and concludes that I’m giving investment advice from the housing crash then Im eager to discuss it with them. However, an agent who Is leading the public to believe he is still an Attorney and that there is some value to that in his real estate licensure must be scrutinized. Under our licensure we cannot give ANY legal advice. Your content day after day dictates legal Opinions and References to cases that may or may not be true. It leads the public to believe they have an Attorney and a real estate Agent in the same guise. Kary, I urge you to clarify this for readers. The DOL might come down even more aggressively on you then you ever imagined.

  169. 169

    RE: Ray pepper @ 168 – If I’m ever giving something of the nature it might be construed as legal advice I give a disclaimer that the party needs to consult an attorney. Note that suggesting you contact a competent accountant is not legal advice, and that is something any agent is free to do and in certain instances must do.

    BTW, I’ve purposefully avoided giving you legal advice on your lawsuit, other to mention I think you may be pushing the envelope a bit too far. I see things the bank could do and I see defenses you could raise. That is not my concern or something I would discuss here. My main point is that your situation as a defendant in a judicial foreclosure (or a tax payer in an offer in compromise) is not exactly the wonderful situation you try to spin it into. For most people it would be their nightmare scenario, and saying that is not legal advice.

    In any case, DOL has no authority over me giving legal advice if I were to give it. Being licensed as an attorney I am free to do that. Your suggestion to the contrary is an improper legal opinion, and one you have no license to give.

  170. 170
    Ray pepper says:

    However, your not a licensed real estate attorney. Your statements imply you are. This is misleading to the reader. Also, Kary in/re to Bank of NY Mellon and Wells. Even if we wanted to they will not accept payments. They haven’t for the past 3 years. The last 2 attempts at payments were for trial mods. Each called for 3 payments to be made. We diligently made those 3 payments in 2011 and 2012 per agreement. All penalties and late fees were extinguished. Properties had fair BPOs on them of current value. Guess what. Upon 3rd payment servicers were reassigned. We no longer had SLS. It was now Wells and Bank of NY Mellon. They did not honor the trial Mod! Yes, you are hearing me correctly. We have everything in writing and all receipts. They switched servicers and that remains our claim. Appears SLS servicing was running a bit of a scam. Even though being represented by the Urban League, which was a complete waste of time, I eagerly await my day in Court to show the Judge how we acted in good faith and what was committed. Our Attorney on both properties states we will WIN based on all the documents we have and receipts. However, nobody can tell us what we will win. Thus, I stress again. I hope our day in Court comes but there is no rush!

  171. 171
    Blurtman says:

    Guys, it has to be a lot easier being a marijuana farmer, dontcha think?

  172. 172
    Azucar says:

    By Ray pepper @ 162:

    I never entered ANY contract knowingly going to default. ever!!! Again, life doesn’t always go according to plan. We are forced to adapt to changes in our environment. How you adapt will dictate your financial outcome. I chose the obvious path as did many thousands of others. Many more thousands, the fools if you may, chose their path. They are the criers and finger pointers. Always finding others to deflect their own pain because of their own stupidity.

    Oh, sorry… you keep flip flopping between “I meant to do that” and “I was a victim of circumstance”, and I guess I got confused by the part where you said that you wished that you would have been in the same situation on 23 properties made me think that it was something that you wanted to do.

    So, back to my original statement, which was “profits and no prison = successful investment” – for someone with your ethical standards.

  173. 173
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Azucar @ 172 – I can live with that!!

  174. 174

    By Ray pepper @ 170:

    However, your not a licensed real estate attorney. Your statements imply you are. This is misleading to the reader. Also, Kary in/re to Bank of NY Mellon and Wells. Even if we wanted to they will not accept payments.

    There is no such thing as a licensed real estate attorney, and I’ve never called myself that. But even back in my bankruptcy days I dealt with a lot of real estate issues. Not as broad of coverage as what someone who specializes would cover. But in any case, it did cover a lot of transactional work (sales) and bank issues.

    Banks almost never take partial payments once you’re in foreclosure. I once got the successor to Homestreet to take payments immediately prior to filing a Chapter 13. If it wasn’t such a small bank back then that never would have happened.

  175. 175
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 171

    I don’t remember for sure but I think everything was easy when I was a marijuana farmer. I know my friends all told me my girlfriend was.

  176. 176
    Blurtman says:

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 175 – Rimshot! A good friend of mine was a guerrilla farmer in the Bay Area decades ago. Seeds from Amsterdam. Sprout and sex at home and then plant outdoors. Scurrying about on public land, maglite clenched in teeth, working under the moonlit sky. He said it was some of the best fun he ever had.

  177. 177

    RE: Blurtman @ 176 – Not the best movie in the world, but it is on Netflix Streaming right now. http://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/Humboldt-County/70105124?strkid=351513428_0_0&strackid=ac4d8c1ff2d1761_0_srl&trkid=222336

    And connecting back up to real estate, Jillayne has what I think is a fairly popular continuing education course on weed issues, and there’s also this from WR: http://www.washingtonweedsales.com/the-washington-real-estate-attorney-on-i-502/

  178. 178
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 177 – Thanks, Kary, I’ll check it out. In the summer of ’89 I had a summer job working for Shell oil, driving around Humboldt County and testing propane tanks for oderant levels, as Shell had released a lot of propane without sufficient oderant in it. I remember the black copters going out in the morning with empty nets and returning later in the evening with full nets. The locals hated the armed military looking agents. It was always an adventure going out in the boonies with the local gas company employees. “Yes, Bob, we’ll be out in the company truck with two new guys. Yes, they’ll be wearing our hats. No, they’re legit, and working with Shell. OK, I’ll be sure to beep the horn like always.”

  179. 179
  180. 180

    RE: Blurtman @ 178 – Well I can see why they’d be a little suspicious of that.

  181. 181

    By Voight-kampff @ 179:

    http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/60735013.jpg

    Well if it puts an end to this “Ray is a genius investor” nonsense, it will be worth it, even with Ray having tried to switch topics posting even more falsehoods and nonsense.

    As I mentioned, this only came up because of Jonness about two weeks ago mentioning what a great job Ray had done. That’s how I stumbled across the truth. But what’s amazing to me is that Ray was promoting his BS scheme back in October of 2010, while the federal tax lien was filed back in December 2010. It’s extremely difficult to believe he didn’t know the downside of what he was doing at the same time he was promoting it. Of course, even today he denies doing something that generates a large tax liability and necessitates an offer in compromise is a downside, so I guess it shouldn’t be surprising. But it does make you wonder.

  182. 182
    Ray pepper says:

    Bs scheme? No scheme! Just adaptation! The crash was the greatest financial outcome for my portfolio. But you wouldn’t know that. You have nonportfolio. You have an upside down single family residence in the shit bowl that is Renton. And worst part your leveraging against that!! Oh my ! Kary Kary Kary.

  183. 183

    RE: Ray pepper @ 182 – Now you’re getting to the point of being an outright liar. You demonstrated your total incompetence as an agent by not understanding that a loan taken out by the prior owner of my house was not my debt. You further demonstrated incompetence as an agent by not recognizing a HELOC. But how can you possibly think I’m upside down on a house that at most I owe $30,000 on?

    I’m just going to come out and say it. You’re a con man and nothing more. You troll this and probably other web pages looking for gullible idiots. I don’t know exactly what your place is in the organization you’re dealing with, but you’re clearly not smart enough to be at the top of it. You’re just a middle man who has been played by people who are much smarter than you. They have left you in financial ruin, but you can apparently still somehow benefit by dragging in other gullible fools into the scheme. Pretty sick that you were still promoting it in 2010 when you undoubtedly knew the downside.

    I’m glad Jonness was boasting about your success so that I could discover the reality and point it out to others. You need to thank him for me next time you see him (assuming Jonness is not really you.)

  184. 184
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary, since you have this all figured out, and I’m in financial ruin, what do I have to gain by people doing as I do? Surely there is some profit in me having others strategically default isn’t there? I mean to be a con one should have a gain? What will I get from all these gullible idiots? As a retired nurse it appears to me your off your meds, out of meds, or need additional dosage. You on Klonopin? Too much Haldol in the past decade. You seem to suffer from mania? Is China on top of this?
    Kary the facts remain you bought at Top of the market in Renton, you plopped all your dough down, your were for forced to take loans out on it, and you have Zero portfolio. I bought at the top of the mkt, before the top, after the top, and even this month. You have nothing Kary except narcissistic tendencies like me. Btw, why do I keep getting these email? What happened to the 5 response limit? Your wasting my time. I feel compelled to respond to a mad man! Go out and sell something and I will inbox you my LLCs if you really want to look at a portfolio. Maybe that will settle your nerves.

  185. 185
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 183
    Yeah, Renton sucks, but it isn’t as bad as north Everett in my opinion. It’s dirty, but not as many child predators.

    Take ray’s advice. I did and moved from a dump in north everett to Kirkland, the to a waterfront property in just a few years. Sometimes it’s smarter to admit you aren’t smart financially and just move forward taking advice from Ray, who is smarter.

  186. 186
    Erik says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 184
    Kary doesn’t care about the outcome. Kary only cares about the process. That’s why Kary lives in Renton and you are rich. That is your reward. On a much smaller scale, this crash really got me on my feet.

  187. 187
    Ray pepper says:

    that goes without saying Erik! An attorney turned real estate agent says it all. Now, what I find really fascinating is sitting here in Gig Harbor watching them blow insulation into an attic. Watching all that crap go through the tubes ! It’s almost hypnotizing. Makes me want Chick Fil a for lunch. Not sure why.

  188. 188

    By Ray pepper @ 184:

    Kary the facts remain you bought at Top of the market in Renton, you plopped all your dough down, your were for forced to take loans out on it, and you have Zero portfolio.

    I bought and sold at the top of the market because I wanted to move and still own my house. You bought at the top of the market and couldn’t sell because you’re an incompetent real estate agent.

    I wasn’t forced to borrow anything. I made that choice. I haven’t said anything about my “portfollio” because it’s irrelevant to the topic of you being involved in a scheme that left you with a huge tax debt and the potential for a huge deficiency judgment.

    You continue to promote that scheme, so presumably you get something out of it. I don’t have any way of knowing that. You’ll have to disclose it. If you get some sucker to put up their credit or their money, how much do you get for ruining their finances too?

    You remind me of a guy in the dorms from my college days. His roommate got him really drunk and he went running down the fire escape in his underwear. Then later when he was half passed out in his bed he saw the roommate getting a second victim really drunk. He just smiled. Unlike you though, he wasn’t complicit in the second victim’s troubles. He wasn’t going out saying getting too drunk wasn’t so bad and trying to convince other people to get really drunk.

  189. 189
    Erik says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 187
    After you watched the crap go through the tube, it subconsciously reminded you that it was time for crap to go through your digestive tube. Just an idea.

  190. 190
    Ray pepper says:

    Yes, Kary that shows your expertise as a real estate agent AND an investor. That’s why you own nothing. You sell at the TOP of the market, so you say, then take that money and BUY at the TOP of the market. Your an absolute idiot. You had no portfolio to speak of to possibly move into another asset. Instead you blow it all on an upside down house in Renton in 2007. Then you wait 8 years and your still not even yet from that purchase. A narcissistic FOOL that has no chance at your age dwindling the days away in front of a PC. God, I hope China has a 401k

  191. 191
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 188
    Should have sold at the top, rented for a few years, then bought at the bottom.

    You gotta admit, it does seem strange that you come on here all the time and still bought at the top. Don’t you read the data Tim posts? Here’s what to watch for…. CS hpi. When it gets really high, don’t buy. The other very important one is the affordability curve. That was insanely high when you bought. Next time those things get really high, just sell. That’s my plan.

    If you can’t see it, I’m sure I’ll be on here telling everyone I think it’s time to sell. Just sell then. We want you to be able to retire at some point. This is getting sad.

  192. 192

    By Erik @ 191:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 188
    Should have sold at the top, rented for a few years, then bought at the bottom.

    Yep, a strategy that would require that I have earned $180,000 more just to break even, that’s a strategy I want to follow! Can you tell me more ways I can have to make even more money to live as well as I have been?

    You gotta admit, it does seem strange that you come on here all the time and still bought at the top. Don’t you read the data Tim posts? Here’s what to watch for…. CS hpi. When it gets really high, don’t buy. The other very important one is the affordability curve. That was insanely high when you bought. Next time those things get really high, just sell. That’s my plan.

    I sold the existing house near the top when I did because I knew there was a chance property values would decline. I was able to do that because unlike Ray I’m a competent real estate agent. For the past 8 years I’ve been living in a much nicer house in a much nicer neighborhood. Only ignorant people like Ray (and his alter ego Jonness) would even question such a move.

    Erik, you seem like a nice guy, but you are really not very well suited to understanding financial matters. I’m glad you did as well as you did on that condo, but I have serious concerns that you will make some really bad moves and lose that money. If you listen to Ray’s BS that will happen.

  193. 193

    RE: Ray pepper @ 190 – Maybe we need to go through the facts again.

    You bought at the top of the market in TACOMA trying to flip a property.
    Being an incompetent real estate agent you were unable to sell that property.
    Your other activities resulted in your having a huge income tax liability that you needed to do an offer in compromise on.
    You are currently a defendant in a judicial foreclosure on the house that you bought in Tacoma at the top of the market.

    I’m sorry, but your opinion of my investment skills, particularly when you know nothing about any of my assets other than my house, is rather irrelevant. You are a complete failure as a real estate investor and a real estate agent. You aren’t even qualified to sweep my driveway. So keep your opinions to yourself.

  194. 194
    Ray pepper says:

    Oh. So now I must keep my opinions to myself? I’m unable to voice my opinion? In America? Interesting? A bit agitated? Maybe a lil Ativan is in order. I’m sensing your anxiety again Kary.

  195. 195
    redmondjp says:

    By Erik @ 189:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 187
    After you watched the crap go through the tube, it subconsciously reminded you that it was time for crap to go through your digestive tube. Just an idea.

    Oh crashizzle, Erik, talk about taking the lid off of the septic tank on a hot day; now you’re going to get Ray started again about his Claim-Jumper-induced digestive maladies, oh, the humanity . . .

  196. 196

    By Ray pepper @ 194:

    Oh. So now I must keep my opinions to myself? I’m unable to voice my opinion? In America? Interesting? A bit agitated? Maybe a lil Ativan is in order. I’m sensing your anxiety again Kary.

    Well since your opinions about my financial status are based on complete ignorance, and since your investments stills are beyond pathetic, I don’t really see the point of your expressing them. But you’ve certainly wasted enough of peoples’ time over the years, so go ahead and keep doing it!

    But if you want to keep posting, you’d probably have really great advice about the board game Squander. From Wikipedia:

    Squander (written as “$QUANDER” on the box and in the rules) is an Avalon Hill board game published in 1965. It is based loosely on the game Monopoly, but in reverse. As in Monopoly, players roll dice and move around a board, encountering opportunities to make financial decisions. The object, however, is to lose money rather than gain it. Each player starts with a million “Squanderbucks” and the winner is the first player to become bankrupt.

  197. 197
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 195
    Ray needs to invest in some natural foods instead of buying McDonald’s fish fillets. It would be good for his digestive system. He has the means, now it is time to enjoy his hard work.

  198. 198
    Ray pepper says:

    I had Jimmy johns for lunch with the lettuce for bread. Been drinking a lot of fluids the last 3 days and went from 228 to 223 after a rather large BM this morning. Have to do a Fort Lewis Mud Run in a couple weeks and don’t want CPR while somewhere on the base. Also been having 1 slim fast per day for breakfast and I must Say the consistency of my stool has been pleasant.

  199. 199
    Ray pepper says:

    Now I want that game dammit! Never heard of it!! Sick of Cards Against Humanity ..

  200. 200

    RE: Ray pepper @ 199 – I probably haven’t played it for over 40 years, but it was a great game to play as a kid. Not sure how good it would be for adults.

  201. 201
    herrbrahms says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 40 – You said it. Whenever friends in my orbit start shopping for homes these days, I perform my public service and tactfully discourage them. Price are quite high right now on a historical basis using constant dollars. When they complain of rent increases, I nod understandingly and encourage them to find a less trendy neighborhood.

    Which, of course, they never want to do, so they proceed to throw every non 401k dollar they have at a single asset. God help them.

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