Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Still Hot in April

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 2.3% March to April
Up 7.5% YOY.
Down 7.4% from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices rose 2.3% month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.2%.

Year-over-year and month-over-month home price changes for the Seattle area were exactly the same in April as they were in March.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes rose from #2 in March to #1 in April. No other metro area saw home prices increase more over the month than they did in Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

The last time Seattle saw the largest month-over-month gain of all twenty cities was March 2011. Before that though, Seattle experienced a sustained period at or near the top of the month-over-month rankings when it was #1 for seven months between April 2006 and April 2007—just before Seattle’s July 2007 home price peak. It will be interesting to see if we stay at the top of the heap for long.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In April, five of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same as in March):

  • Denver at +10.3%
  • San Francisco at +10.0%
  • Dallas at +8.8%
  • Miami at +8.5%
  • Tampa at +7.6%

Fourteen cities gained less than Seattle as of April: Portland, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Charlotte, Atlanta, San Diego, Detroit, Phoenix, Minneapolis, New York, Chicago, Boston, Cleveland, and Washington.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through April.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the ninety-three months since the price peak in Seattle prices are still down 7.4%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of April 2015, Seattle prices are still closest to where they were in June 2006.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

I’ll post the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers later tonight.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2015-06-30)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2 comments:

  1. 1
    Chris says:

    The indexes for many of the cities such as Seattle are “wavy” during the recovery period. The waves are nodal to ~ 1 year. Las vegas and Phoenix don’t exhibit this but many of the other cities do. It is somewhat troubling to see the waves start earlier on ‘problem’ cities like Detroit and Cleveland that have seen little recovery.

    Could this just how CS now reports data or something else entirely?

  2. 2

    RE: Chris @ 1 – I can’t really comment on what’s going on in other cities, but what you see here is likely at least partially due to the seasonality of total sales relative to the fairly steady (although declining) pace of distressed sales. At this point in time I think it’s pretty clear that C-S has a mix issue that they chose not to adjust out. (They could have had a separate index of non-distressed sales, but chose not to do so.)

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