Consumer Confidence Keeps Climbing, Rates Inching Up

It’s been half a year since we last checked in on Consumer Confidence and mortgage interest rates, so let’s take a look at a long-overdue update to those charts.

First up, here’s the Consumer Confidence data as of June:

Consumer Confidence

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 101.4, up 7 percent in a month and up 17 percent from a year ago.

At 111.6, the Present Situation Index increased 4 percent between May and June, and is up 29 percent from a year earlier. The Present Situation Index is currently up 452 percent from its December 2009 low point, but still down 19 percent from its pre-bust peak in July 2007.

The Expectations Index also rose in June, up 10 percent from May, and is up from a year earlier by 10 percent.

Here’s your chart of home mortgage 30-year interest rates via the Federal Reserve:

Mortgage Interest Rates

As of last week, the 30-year mortgage rate was at 4.04 percent, up slightly from the 3.74% January through May average. Current interest rates are roughly on par with where they were in September 2011 and still nearly two and a half points below the 6.41 percent average rate during the height of the housing bubble through 2006.

Enjoy the stupidly low interest rates while they last, it looks like that gravy train may finally be coming to an end later this year:

You heard it from the Federal Reserve Chair herself: interest rates will soon go up.

In prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will say that as the U.S. economy continues to improve, “conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target.”

Click below for the interactive Consumer Confidence chart (only works in Google Chrome).

You can use the sliders under the interactive chart below to zoom in on the data for a specific period.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

104 comments:

  1. 1
    Kip Wallbanger says:

    Drain the credit liquidity swamp Yellen. :P

  2. 2
    whatsmyname says:

    “Current interest rates are roughly on par with where they were in September 2011 and still nearly two and a half points below the 6.41 percent average rate during the height of the housing bubble through 2006.”

    The difference between the mortgage rate of today and the average of the period you reference is very similar to the difference in inflation rates for the two same reference points.

    http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

  3. 3
    Blake says:

    By whatsmyname @ 2:

    The difference between the mortgage rate of today and the average of the period you reference is very similar to the difference in inflation rates for the two same reference points.

    http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

    Great link… that inflation graph (or disinflation!) shows Fisher’s Debt-Deflation trap in action!! The Fed would be nuts to raise rates at this time and the markets don’t believe Yellen for a second… bonds rallied through the end of the day and interest rates keep dropping just after Janet said the Fed was likely to RAISE rates! Hah!

  4. 4
    greg says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2

    of course housing has seen very real inflation along with many other asset classes.

    As such stating we have super low inflation at the moment is not true for anyone interested in buying or selling RE…

  5. 5
    whatsmyname says:

    By Blake @ 3:

    The Fed would be nuts to raise rates at this time and the markets don’t believe Yellen for a second… bonds rallied through the end of the day and interest rates keep dropping just after Janet said the Fed was likely to RAISE rates! Hah!

    Yes. I think she is communicating through tentative verbiage. She maintains the existing frame of talking about a raise, but subtly undermines the frame through multiple conditions, “as the U.S. economy continues to improve, (hedge),conditions likely, (hedge) would make it appropriate, (hedge), at some point this year, (hedge) to raise the federal funds rate target.”

  6. 6
    whatsmyname says:

    By greg @ 4:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2

    of course housing has seen very real inflation along with many other asset classes.

    As such stating we have super low inflation at the moment is not true for anyone interested in buying or selling RE…

    Some sectors are always inflating/deflating more than others. That was also true in the lead up to 2006. We are talking general inflation and interest rates. If a lender is collecting interest of 6.5%, but the principal is losing 2.5% to inflation, his/her return (real rate) is 4%. This is not materially different to the lender than lending at 4% in a 0% inflation world.

  7. 7
    Mike says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2 – Of course in 2006-2007 a large number of people (roughly 50% of new mortgages) weren’t making fully indexed and amortized payments on fixed rate loans. And many of them ended up defaulting and living for free – if you take that into account, the actual loan payments people were *making* at the top of the bubble and years following were quite low compared to now – if you average it out.

    Today’s borrowers with 30-year fixed loans might be paying a bit more on a monthly basis “on average” – but they’re paying, usually from income (not equity) – as was common during the bubble.

    Back then it wasn’t uncommon for people to do a cash out re-finance every year and take out more than a years worth of mortgage payments. Repeatedly.

  8. 8
    redmondjp says:

    By Mike @ 7:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2 – Of course in 2006-2007 a large number of people (roughly 50% of new mortgages) weren’t making fully indexed and amortized payments on fixed rate loans. And many of them ended up defaulting and living for free – if you take that into account, the actual loan payments people were *making* at the top of the bubble and years following were quite low compared to now – if you average it out.

    Today’s borrowers with 30-year fixed loans might be paying a bit more on a monthly basis “on average” – but they’re paying, usually from income (not equity) – as was common during the bubble.

    Back then it wasn’t uncommon for people to do a cash out re-finance every year and take out more than a years worth of mortgage payments. Repeatedly.

    My neighbor did this, through the early-mid 2000s, using the house as an ATM. I was wondering how a retired school janitor was able to afford a $50K RV, $35K new pickup truck, $30K new car for his deadbeat son, etc. etc., while I was driving around in my beaters and making my mortgage payments.

    He bought his house in 1984 for something like $84K, and owed almost $400K on it a few years back. I’ll probably have my house, purchased in 1998, paid off before he does! That is seriously messed up but people seem to think it is perfectly OK to live that way (sigh) . . .

  9. 9
    Erik says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 8
    Sounds like you should take some financial lessons from your janitor neighbor. He probably has all his things paid for by his house. If he forecloses on his house, he still gets to keep all his toys.
    I got a loan where I was only making about half the payment and the rest was adding to my principle. It made life a lot easier because I was only making $16 an hour when I bought the house. I kept refinancing to remodel and be able to live comfortably. I would have bought a new pickup if I knew then what I know now. Housing debt isn’t real debt. Pay your other debts first. The house is a freebie.

  10. 10

    By greg @ 4:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 2

    of course housing has seen very real inflation along with many other asset classes.

    As such stating we have super low inflation at the moment is not true for anyone interested in buying or selling RE…

    One type of asset changing in price is not inflation. That’s just the normal result of the changes in supply and demand.

  11. 11

    By Mike @ 7:

    Back then it wasn’t uncommon for people to do a cash out re-finance every year and take out more than a years worth of mortgage payments. Repeatedly.

    Back before the peak I stumbled into a neighborhood/development in Marysville where they were doing it more often than that! I assumed there was a very active mortgage broker working in the area.

    I suspect that most of them were doing it to maintain their other lifestyle, perhaps even running up credit card debt and then paying it off each refinance. But the net effect is the same.

  12. 12

    RE: Erik @ 9
    Its a Sad State

    When janitors are giving us key financial advice. Did anyone see the movie Idiocracy? Where in our near future the less intelligent becomes the norm.

  13. 13

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11

    We Exclude Food and Other High Priced Necessities [like college tuition] from the Inflation Index?

  14. 14

    RE: Erik @ 9

    When You Made $16/hr, Was That as a Mechanical Engineer?

    I saw low wage rates like that for engineers for a local Seattle area company building electronic assemblies, but couldn’t believe it…..the documentation was a cost analysis.

  15. 15
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11
    What happens if you walk away from credit card debt if you are insolvent?

    What happens if you walk away from a mortgage if you are insolvent?

  16. 16

    RE: Erik @ 15 – Those would actually require very complicated answers. And that wasn’t my point. My point was I think most of the serial refinancers ran up credit card debt and then refinanced their homes to pay that debt off.

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 12
    Love that movie. I feel like it’s a real thing. All the dummies are breeding and the smart people aren’t.

  18. 18
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 14
    Yeah, I made $16/hour as a mechanical engineer at a machine shop in Everett. I did all the drafting. This masters degree from uw really boosted my wage. I’m doing much better now.

  19. 19
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16
    Yeah, they transferred their credit card debt to their mortgage and then walked away from their housing debt and were not held accountable for that debt. They were given free things and got to keep them. Seems pretty smart to me.

  20. 20
    Saffy The Pook says:

    More self-incrimination from our favorite troll. It may take a while but I think I know how this movie will end.

  21. 21

    RE: Erik @ 19 – Pretty smart if you don’t want to have a pot to piss in. The ones I feel really sorry for are the ones who incurred the debt for food, drink and other entertainment. They don’t even have the lousy consumer goods left to enjoy during their extended period of insolvency.

    Then there are also the ones who managed to end up with tax debt that they can’t discharge in bankruptcy for at least 3 years.

  22. 22
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    nope, inflation is inflation no matter the under lying reasons. One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition.

    You might wish to pretend housing is magical excluded from real world inflation but it is not, it is very much part of the picture. Our government excludes lots of stuff from the index, but does so only to ensure they can keep costs down on inflation indexed liabilities.. Otherwise SS payments , indexed bonds etc would cost them many billion more a year to fund.

  23. 23
    Blake says:

    By greg @ 22:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    nope, inflation is inflation no matter the under lying reasons. One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition.

    You might wish to pretend housing is magical excluded from real world inflation but it is not, it is very much part of the picture. Our government excludes lots of stuff from the index, but does so only to ensure they can keep costs down on inflation indexed liabilities.. Otherwise SS payments , indexed bonds etc would cost them many billion more a year to fund.

    Well it is referred to as “cost of living” index… and cost of housing is *kind of* necessary for living! ;-)
    Yes, the govt figures have been jiggered for 50 years by every regime… Dem and Rep.
    see: http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/numbers-racket/
    And the hard fact is when rents, housing, medical costs, and education/student loan payments are ALL rising faster than wages consumers have LESS to spend on consumption, which is still 70% of the economy. It is not rocket science…

  24. 24
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21
    I was pretty poor when I was refinancing. Removing that financial stress even temporarily is worth it. Many people doing this will have nothing in the end, but they would have had nothing anyway.
    I remember when I did it I didn’t have a toilet. The refi allowed me to purchase and install a toilet. I didn’t care about years down the road, I just wanted to crap in my own house as opposed to going to McDonald’s or using buckets.

  25. 25
    Blurtman says:

    Federal Funds Rate versus 30 Year Mortgage Rates:

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=2028
    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/federal-funds-rate-mortgage-rates.aspx

    Auto loan, credit card, HELOC, CD rates all go up.

  26. 26
    redmondjp says:

    By Blurtman @ 25:

    Federal Funds Rate versus 30 Year Mortgage Rates:

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=2028
    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/federal-funds-rate-mortgage-rates.aspx

    Auto loan, credit card, HELOC, CD rates all go up.

    And that will do wonders for consumer confidence/spending, don’t you think?

  27. 27
  28. 28

    RE: Erik @ 18
    You made the Right Choice Quitting That Company

    A masters degree at that slave company would have landed you like an extra 50 cents an hour.

  29. 29
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 28
    I only worked there a couple years and started designing excavator attachments for $23.50/hr. I went up to about $26/hr and quit to work a tech job in aerospace for $24.50/hr. I used company resources to get a masters degree in engineering at uw. I am now a mid level engineer in aerospace. Pays a lot more than I am use to, so I’m pretty happy now.

    Rough start to my career, but I think it should be smooth sailing now. In hindsight I should have gotten a better degree from a better school. It’s a tough job market out there and going to a great school is extremely important in engineering.

  30. 30

    By greg @ 22:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    nope, inflation is inflation no matter the under lying reasons. One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition.

    You might wish to pretend housing is magical excluded from real world inflation but it is not, it is very much part of the picture.

    It might be part of the picture, but it’s only inflation if you want to ignore what inflation is and pretend it is something else. Single assets types go up all the time, and single asset types go down all the time. It’s only the overall picture that is inflation.

    You’re making the same mistake that the Fed made back in the 70s. They saw oil prices rise due to cartel activity, thought that the impact of those price changes was inflation, fought it, and created stagflation.

  31. 31
    Blurtman says:

    By redmondjp @ 26:

    By Blurtman @ 25:

    Federal Funds Rate versus 30 Year Mortgage Rates:

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=2028
    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/federal-funds-rate-mortgage-rates.aspx

    Auto loan, credit card, HELOC, CD rates all go up.

    And that will do wonders for consumer confidence/spending, don’t you think?

    Everything is good news for the stock market. Yippee!

  32. 32
    Erik's Step Dad says:

    I always told you, you could come over to my house if you needed a pot to piss in. Your mother would like to see you more often.

    By Erik @ 24:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21
    I was pretty poor when I was refinancing. Removing that financial stress even temporarily is worth it. Many people doing this will have nothing in the end, but they would have had nothing anyway.
    I remember when I did it I didn’t have a toilet. The refi allowed me to purchase and install a toilet. I didn’t care about years down the road, I just wanted to crap in my own house as opposed to going to McDonald’s or using buckets.

  33. 33
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik’s Step Dad @ 31
    I stay away because you are constantly drunk and beating mother. Thank you but no thanks. I’ll use the bucket just to avoid that entire situation. Atleast the bucket doesn’t get wasted daily and beat people.

  34. 34
    greg says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 30:

    By greg @ 22:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10

    nope, inflation is inflation no matter the under lying reasons. One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition.

    You might wish to pretend housing is magical excluded from real world inflation but it is not, it is very much part of the picture.

    It might be part of the picture, but it’s only inflation if you want to ignore what inflation is and pretend it is something else. Single assets types go up all the time, and single asset types go down all the time. It’s only the overall picture that is inflation.

    You’re making the same mistake that the Fed made back in the 70s. They saw oil prices rise due to cartel activity, thought that the impact of those price changes was inflation, fought it, and created stagflation.

    Now you are just being ridiculous.

    But I shall help you .

    Inflation is a super easy part of economics, it is when the purchasing power of currency falls, either across the board or for a single asset class or even a single item.

    There is no other definition in economic terms, none at all. Your attempt to conflate some policy of the 1970s with my straight forward comment ref inflated house prices is utter Bull S. And once more you know it.

    So let me make this clear for you.

    single or multiple asset classes rising in price is in fact the exact definition of inflation. Just as a debased currency causes wide spread inflation across all markets is also inflation. They are not mutually inclusive or exclusive.

    As to single asset classes rising and falling, that is just a truism , it is patently clear to even a teenager that prices go

    So back to my original point, Housing in our area has seen very real inflation and that inflation has a real and lasting impact. For anyone who is buying a home inflation has had a very strong impact over the last couple of years.
    Your attempts to debate this are just childish and demonstrates an inability to too accept reality when it conflicts with your desire to see the world in a certain light.

  35. 35
    whatsmyname says:

    By greg @ 34:

    nope, inflation is inflation no matter the under lying reasons. One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition.

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
    The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/inflation
    Economics. a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/inflation ;
    a continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/inflation;
    Inflation is the percentage change in the value of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a year-on year basis.

    http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/inflation.html
    A sustained, rapid increase in prices, as measured by some broad index (such as Consumer Price Index) over months or years, and mirrored in the correspondingly decreasing purchasing power of the currency.

    http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Inflation.html
    Economists use the term “inflation” to denote an ongoing rise in the general level of prices quoted in units of money.

    No trouble finding an “other” definition. It’s just your definition that seems to lack documentation.

    So back to my original point, Housing in our area has seen very real inflation and that inflation has a real and lasting impact. For anyone who is buying a home inflation has had a very strong impact over the last couple of years.

    Your original point was that increasing real estate prices somehow delegitimized using current inflation figures in comparisons of real mortgage rates on the basis of general inflation.

  36. 36
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By greg @ 34:

    Inflation is a super easy part of economics, it is when the purchasing power of currency falls, either across the board or for a single asset class or even a single item.

    Now you’re being silly. A single item? By that definition we experience deflation every fall when the price of the current year’s automobiles are discounted because the next year’s are also in stock.

  37. 37

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 36RE: whatsmyname @ 35 – I think we’re wasting our time with Greg. He doesn’t understand something and refuses to listen.

  38. 38
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 37
    Yeah Kary…. Reminds me of someone else I know.

  39. 39

    RE: Erik @ 38 – Erik, you don’t know squat, are extremely gullible (a target for con men), and understand very little. So that you think that of me is actually a good thing. I’d be concerned if you had a high opinion of me, because that would mean I didn’t know squat and didn’t understand things.

  40. 40
    David B. says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 39 – Erik’s most honest avatar was the one with a picture of a Troll.

  41. 41
    greg says:

    By whatsmyname @ 35:

    By greg @ 34:

    Your original point was that increasing real estate prices somehow delegitimized using current inflation figures in comparisons of real mortgage rates on the basis of general inflation.

    RE: whatsmyname @ 35

    no it was not.

    My original point was ……

    “””of course housing has seen very real inflation along with many other asset classes.
    As such stating we have super low inflation at the moment is not true for anyone interested in buying or selling RE”””

    My point was very clear.
    It clearly states that for those interested in RE our inflated asset prices are having a very real impact,
    Those interested in purchasing or selling are dealing with high inflation within the housing sector.

    Not only was my point fully correct, but so was my definition of inflation, your links define inflation exactly the same as I did. No difference at all.

  42. 42

    RE: greg @ 41 – You need to learn the word “appreciation” or “appreciated.” That means in increase in price of a particular asset or class of assets. Inflation does not.

  43. 43
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 39
    Bottom line is that I made good real estate decisions and you made bad real eastate decisions as mr. Peppers pointed out.

    You thought it was a good idea to pay cash at the peak in 2007. Moron…

  44. 44
    Erik says:

    RE: David B. @ 40
    I may be a troll, but atleast I make good decisions in real estate and have done very well from where I was a few years ago, so whatever

  45. 45
    boater says:

    RE: greg @ 41
    Inflation is a macro economic event.
    Appreciation is micro economic.

    Seattle housing is appreciating.
    nationally we see little inflation.

    Housing in Kansas for example is not appreciating as fast as Seattle.

  46. 46
  47. 47
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 46
    Hahaha. You haven’t called me out on a bash in a while. Kary gets under my skin because he’s all talk. He’s the guy that was smart enough to give the banks all his cash right before the crash.

  48. 48
    Macro Investor says:

    By Blake @ 3:

    By whatsmyname @ 2:

    The Fed would be nuts to raise rates at this time and the markets don’t believe Yellen for a second… bonds rallied through the end of the day and interest rates keep dropping just after Janet said the Fed was likely to RAISE rates! Hah!

    I think you are right — they are trapped in low rates.

    However, I remember another time the markets thumbed their nose at the fed’s warnings. In the early 80s Volcker was trying to talk interest rates up. It didn’t happen. They also didn’t go up much when he actually started raising rates. So, he slammed rates up to 13% to get the desired effect. Many years later, he admitted he was angry that nobody listened.

    We never really know what they will do until it happens.

  49. 49
    Macro Investor says:

    By Erik @ 44:

    RE: David B. @ 40
    I may be a troll, but atleast I make good decisions in real estate and have done very well from where I was a few years ago, so whatever

    Stop lying, okay. You don’t make good real estate decisions. You ACCIDENTALLY got lucky, when you admittedly didn’t know what you were doing.

    As for Kary, he always advises caution — get a lawyer/accountant/other professional before you make big decisions. And that is good advice FOR PEOPLE THAT HAVE MONEY/ASSETS to protect. In the case of poor people who have nothing to lose, it’s not worth suing you to collect on contracts that you breach. That applies to the janitor above as well. It isn’t worth suing for a janitor’s wages. So you got a free pass. But now that you have money and a decent job — a judge can take that all away in a heartbeat. So if you behave the way you did, it may be russian roulette.

    Good luck, little knave. You’ll need it.

  50. 50
    boater says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 49
    Well said. If you have nothing taking Eric level risks you can’t afford leaves you potentially in the same state you were in minus hope.
    If you have assets, Kary’s advise is much better. He may at times be too risk averse but then almost all lawyers, accountants and engineers are. They are paid to make sure you know what the risks are and worst case outcomes are. You make the educated bet.

  51. 51
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 49 – macro can u tell me a realistic scenario where a judge can ” take that all away in a heartbeat.” I’m anxious to hear with all the BK protections we have. It’s very certain people can lose everything but in a heartbeat? By a judge? No appeals? Are we talking a murder conviction and taken away? Even at that it can take years if one acquired wealth prior. Please explain a feasible scenario.

  52. 52
    boater says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 51
    Based on what you’ve said in the past you routinely count on the wheels of justice to work slowly and in your favor. Remember what can work for you can work against you. You may find yourself in the right and watch those slow moving wheels grind you under before you can prove yourself. If you don’t have a banks reserves I wouldn’t recommend playing like you do.

  53. 53

    By Erik @ 43:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 39
    Bottom line is that I made good real estate decisions and you made bad real eastate decisions as mr. Peppers pointed out.

    You thought it was a good idea to pay cash at the peak in 2007. Moron…

    Bottom line is you’re too stupid to understand what I did or why it was a good move. But you did get lucky and are confusing your own luck with talent.

  54. 54

    By Erik @ 44:

    RE: David B. @ 40
    I may be a troll, but atleast I make good decisions in real estate and have done very well from where I was a few years ago, so whatever

    You need to learn the difference between singular and plural. You made a single good decision, at best. It was more likely just a lucky decision.

  55. 55

    By Erik @ 47:

    RE: Blurtman @ 46
    Hahaha. You haven’t called me out on a bash in a while. Kary gets under my skin because he’s all talk. He’s the guy that was smart enough to give the banks all his cash right before the crash.

    Wow, you really are dense. Please explain how my paying cash to a seller was giving the “banks all his cash.” Do you really understand that little about financial matters?

    BTW, hardly all my cash in any event. Unlike some of the people you worship here, I actually an solvent.

  56. 56

    By Macro Investor @ 49:

    As for Kary, he always advises caution — get a lawyer/accountant/other professional before you make big decisions. And that is good advice FOR PEOPLE THAT HAVE MONEY/ASSETS to protect.

    I’m actually afraid to look at what Erik has done. I have my doubts that it was above-board and suspect someone probably has taken advantage of him. That’s what happens when you go onto the Internet in less than an anonymous manner, demonstrate your financial ineptitude and brag about all the money you made.

  57. 57

    By Ray pepper @ 51:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 49 – macro can u tell me a realistic scenario where a judge can ” take that all away in a heartbeat.” I’m anxious to hear with all the BK protections we have. It’s very certain people can lose everything but in a heartbeat? By a judge? No appeals? Are we talking a murder conviction and taken away? Even at that it can take years if one acquired wealth prior. Please explain a feasible scenario.

    You’ve posted enough in the Internet that it’s very unlikely you’d get all your debts discharged in bankruptcy. You’re even less anonymous than Erik.

    But if you really want to know, because you signed a note with that deed of trust it is a written contract. A written contract is one of the things that allows a creditor to go in and get a pre-judgment writ of attachment. At that point in time they could effectively tie up all your real property in Washington (if you had any with any equity), and grab virtually all your personal property. That is seldom done, but after what you’ve posted just on this site I wouldn’t rule it out.

    And Boater, I’m very risk adverse. I’ve mentioned that myself at times.

  58. 58
    Erik says:

    RE: boater @ 50
    You hit the nail on the head. I still really don’t have much to lose. I’ll still take big risks if there is a big piece of pie to be had. I had absolutely nothing. I now have absolutely nothing plus a little. I have high highs and low lows. I use to go to the bathroom in a bucket I’m the north everett hood. Do you think I really care about offsetting my risk?

    Kary, you can kiss my insolvent a$$!!! Just wanted to say that for fun. Maybe the thing you don’t understand is that was my only good decision I made financially. I made that good decision by coming on here, reading Tim’s data, and thinking about it. Ever since I started trolling this site I have made great decisions that really helped me financially. I don’t think it’s a coincidence.

    I’m an example of a poor person that got out of poverty with a few good real estate decisions from trolling Tim’s site. I am in no way claiming to be a financial expert.

  59. 59
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 53
    If you tried to take my money from me, I would grab your hand and bite it. Then I would scream “mine!” In your face so you understood I mean business. Point is I do not pretend to be a financial expert. You’d have to be high to buy in 2007 after reading this website daily. Makes no sense. I made a good decision. You did not.

  60. 60
    whatsmyname says:

    By greg @ 41:

    My point was very clear.
    It clearly states that for those interested in RE our inflated asset prices are having a very real impact,
    Those interested in purchasing or selling are dealing with high inflation within the housing sector.

    Not only was my point fully correct, but so was my definition of inflation, your links define inflation exactly the same as I did. No difference at all.

    Your point that real estate prices have increased was offered as a rebuttal to my point that real interest rates (i.e. adjusted for general inflation) aren’t much different than what they were in the early to mid 2000’s. Context counts.

    Of the six definitions of inflation that I linked, four reference “general price increase”, and two reference indexes. To say that these are exactly the same as your definition that, “One asset increasing in price is exactly what inflation is, there is no other definition” is to turn the English language on its head.

  61. 61

    By Erik @ 59:

    <You'd have to be high to buy in 2007 after reading this website daily. Makes no sense. I made a good decision. You did not.

    Just because you don’t understand something, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t make any sense. It means you are simply not capable of understanding.

    But what I don’t understand is why you think Ray is great, despite his buying about the same time to flip, being unsuccessful as a listing agent/firm selling that property, and the fact that he’s now dealing with a judicial foreclosure of the debt on that property, and also had to somehow deal with the junior note holder(s). Seriously, why is it that alone doesn’t teach you anything? That it doesn’t is what makes you a huge target.

    Finally, BTW, I’m not going to want to take your money. I don’t get involved with individuals in either a borrowing or investment capacity. That’s an extremely bad idea for either an agent or an attorney, and I am both.

  62. 62
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 57 – oh Kary…If I meet you personally one day in Cheesecake Factory or maybe Mediterranean Kitchen in Bellevue I will educate you on “how RE investing is done.” You simply dont know what you dont know. Kind of like kicking a dog an hour later after he poops on the carpet.
    RE is a glorious investment in GOOD times and BAD. The laws on the books “as long as I have been investing” favor the homeowner in every capacity that is important. Essential keys to remember is ALWAYS put as little down as possible to hedge risk, never pay off you mortgage as long as tax laws remain the same, NEVER take a 15 year loan, use others money whenever possible, and the single most important factor………………..Always always STAY LIQUID. If you dont understand anything else just remember that. CASH is GOOD. It is your friend. If you have CASH you will always win.
    Your Buying at the PEAK , plopping over 100k down, using YOUR MONEY, having NO RE portfolio, tells me everything. You will be grinding out commissions to try and earn a living for the rest of your days when life can be so much easier. Again, though I will NOT kick the dog
    Running in FEAR of what COULD happen or MAY happen is no way to financial prosperity and actually no way to live a life.
    I would provide links to educate you but I believe you are too old. Too set in your ways. I hope you have a 401k from wife or prior employment and your not relying on SS. Tapping your equity AGAIN on your primary or having to sell your home to free up cash is what I see happening to you.
    Money aside I’m told if you have your health you have it all. I hope you are OK and not like our late friend. I wish I only knew…….

  63. 63

    By Erik @ 58:

    RE: boater @ 50
    You hit the nail on the head. I still really don’t have much to lose. I’ll still take big risks if there is a big piece of pie to be had. I had absolutely nothing. I now have absolutely nothing plus a little. I have high highs and low lows. I use to go to the bathroom in a bucket I’m the north everett hood. Do you think I really care about offsetting my risk?

    Kary, you can kiss my insolvent a$$!!! Just wanted to say that for fun. Maybe the thing you don’t understand is that was my only good decision I made financially. I made that good decision by coming on here, reading Tim’s data, and thinking about it. Ever since I started trolling this site I have made great decisions that really helped me financially. I don’t think it’s a coincidence.

    I’m an example of a poor person that got out of poverty with a few good real estate decisions from trolling Tim’s site. I am in no way claiming to be a financial expert.

    Dangit, Erik. First you say that we’re hitting the top in 2017. So I sold all my real estate holdings.. Then you say that we’re peaking in 2024. So I bought a bunch more. Now you say you’re no way a financial expert. What am I supposed to do now?

  64. 64
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 63 – Whatever you do, just stay away from Claim Jumper . . .

  65. 65
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 64 – Claim jumper has gotten a lot better. Since they were sold to Landrys I felt they went down hill. As of late though they have gotten better. The beef ribs are excellent and the pretzels are good too!! Go during happy hour and the pretzels are only 2.00 for 5 pretzels. Comes with mustard and melted cheese. However, I ordered 4.00 worth last time and I left bloated but didn’t have any cramps or splatters on the way out. I’ve learned to limit by cheese. In the past I couldn’t even make it to the parking lot without the sweat pouring down my scalp.

  66. 66

    RE: ray pepper @ 62 – Ray, quite frankly I’m surprised you still have the guts to show your face around here. Do you think anyone besides Erik doesn’t think your completely FoS at this point in time? And Erik apparently is tapped out at this point. So you need to find other hunting grounds for your prey.

    But LOL suggesting I’m not familiar with the laws you mention. What on earth do you think a bankruptcy attorney does?

  67. 67
    Ray pepper says:

    What does a BK Attorney do? Are you one? I don’t want to feed your narcissistic appetite but I think the real question is have you paid off your student loans? Thousands of Lawyers continue to default on theirs via Fortune.
    Guts to be here? I have no shame and no reason to lie. I don’t need to peddle real estate Kary . Further I do not need to utilize my RN license for work. I’ve been retired, according to friends and family since 2010. Wife continues with her Maxim Health Care and her 73 year old Dementia patient in Federal Way and chooses to work 32 hours a week so she can travel everywhere with her mom and kids. I like it mostly here on the West Coast Kary. I will drive her nuts with all the sports related activities I choose to live my life around. I’m only 48 and it’s all from real estate Kary. Started with a little 2bed 1 bath in Seahurst in 1995 , traded stocks since 1999 for sheer titillation, and living life. Friends all working stiffs at Msft, AT&T, Amzn, healthcare, and teaching while I essentially built the life I wanted.
    Shamed of nothing, very liquid, and enough RE holdings to retire off of. Kary you seem to enjoy looking up tax records and MLS closings. Have you still not found our LLC’s? Kind of easy Kary. 36% of portfolio is in Pierce. Surely you will find if you just take a little time.
    Back to the point here….. Your old and you own 1 leveraged home. You bought it at peak of market in 2007 because ” you wanted to own your home.” After the countless hours here you bought your only real estate holding at the Apex and continue to offer RE advice here. Does anybody take you serious? I do. I listen to everyone but have not really found any financial wisdom here on Bubble. Since the passing of David the knee slapping comedy was over. He made me laugh and I was very mean to him numerous times. I felt terrible. However, he brought something to the table. Comedy. I thought he was hilarious. He tried so hard and all the while he was sick. Ardell and Ira were always nice to him but not me. Still feel guilty. Ugggh. Please tell us you, or your wife, has a 401k and your in good health.

  68. 68

    By Ray pepper @ 67:

    What does a BK Attorney do? Are you one? I don’t want to feed your narcissistic appetite but I think the real question is have you paid off your student loans? Thousands of Lawyers continue to default on theirs via Fortune.
    Guts to be here? I have no shame and no reason to lie. I don’t need to peddle real estate Kary .
    . . .
    Back to the point here….. Your old and you own 1 leveraged home. .

    Wow, more stupid guesses from Ray. No student loans. Unlike you, I am solvent and have little debt.

    Good thing you have no need to peddle real estate, because you’re obviously very bad at it. You claim you only represent buyers now, but you don’t even know how to read a Realist report! If the consumers here knew what that meant they’d be laughing their asses off at your ignorance and lack of basic stills. Even after pointing out the error you made reading the Realist report on my house you still think I only put down $100,000. Being able to read a Realist report is very basic stuff. I can’t imagine representing a buyer without knowing how to do that. But then I guess your clients get what they pay for, right? Agents who can’t read Realist reports obviously can’t charge as much, because they don’t know what they’re doing.

    But in any case, I know you don’t need to make money selling real estate, because that’s not how you’ve been surviving. You’ve apparently been surviving acting as a conman. Why else would you still have been promoting your scam at the same time you were dealing with the crippling tax debt that your scam created. BTW, you do know that LLCs are pass through entities, right?

    And on the topic of taxes, I hope you’ve been paying more to get tax advice than what you’re paying to defend the judicial foreclosure! The tax consequences you described in the other thread are unexpectedly severe. More likely than not you didn’t get proper tax advice, and took what you mistakenly thought was an easy out (offer in compromise). But if you screw up and don’t timely file taxes or don’t timely make an estimated payment, all that tax debt will come crashing back down on you, and I’m fairly sure at that point it would be too late to contest it.

  69. 69
    Ray pepper says:

    You never do answer questions do you Kary? Crippling tax debt? 30k? Price of my 4Runner! Oh Kary I feel sorry for you.
    Defend the Judicial foreclosure? From an attorney? Are you nutts? The Free Services of the incompetents at the Urban League of SEATTLE combined with Pierce County Center for Dispute Resolution and our Lovely AG and right to have Mediation hearings at 200.00 a clip I’m certain Wells Fargo and Bank of NY Mellon will see it our way. But, as I’ve stated at nauseom, what’s the rush.? 8 years and counting on these 2 little investments have still yet to pay their biggest rewards but have turned out to be the BEST profits we’ve had on any 2 purchases! Stay tuned!
    Kary, keep running scared and you end up with what you currently have …Leveraged SQUAT and soon we will see your house on the market like all the others to get a couple hundred thousand in cash and living the rest of your days in a crappy condo with the excuse of ” we wanted to downsize” when in fact you never learned how to truly make money in real estate.

  70. 70

    RE: Ray pepper @ 69 – You completely ignore the fact that you are on the hook for that debt if they decide (or have decided) to seek a deficiency. So all that time you’re wasting is debt incurred. And the more time you make them waste, the more likely it is that they will seek the deficiency. If you’re not living in the house I don’t know why they wouldn’t.

    But by crippling tax debt I was referring the the original amount the debt, not the amount the IRS might have decided that they would accept from you because of your poor balance sheet and income statement. So really, you think anyone should follow in your footsteps? Gee Ray, why don’t you give me some of your great “investment” advice so that I too can have a pathetic balance sheet. That’s advice everyone needs. /sarc

    Finally, on avoiding things, I see you’re finally figured out that other deed of trust was from before I bought. Too bad you didn’t figure out that the second one is a HELOC and you don’t have a clue what is owing on that (other than the fact I’ve said it’s less than 30k). Seriously, you think you have what it takes to represent buyers when you don’t even understand basic real estate records summarized in a simplified form designed for real estate agents to understand?

  71. 71
    Ray pepper says:

    Kary, let me educate you a bit on a potential deficiency judgement for myself. It’s non existent. We already have that IN WRITING! Bank of NY Mellon must file Judicially. Do you not know why? Look at the entities on title in 2nd and 3rd filing to protect their small investments. Know who they are? Let’s just say…. I do. We meet monthly. The bank only wants the property. They have been given 3 options. 100k cash for keys or Drop principle to 180k or lastly take another 2-3 years and thousands in Court costs at a Sheriffs Sale attempt with the 2 principles being the only bidder in the house and getting it at 100k. It’s win, win, win. While we wait it remains win win win. SLS had their chance 3 years ago when they modified, took the 3 trial payments, then transferred loan to another servicer who wasn’t obligated to accept. You see Kary our ducks are all in line and ready for the party. The problem is nobody ever shows up. Stay tuned. I expect resolution in another 2-3 years.

  72. 72
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 71

    Actually Ray, you do come off like a con man. Bragging about being successful. Always in a mocking tone. But never giving any specifics about what you’re doing, or how. You may be an honest guy, but this is how every con man sounds.

    I hope the banks and IRS leave you alone and you do okay. It sounds like you have a nice little scam going with the charitable folks at urban league fighting your legal battles for you. To me, this would be a stressful “retirement” and I couldn’t enjoy using people like that. To each his own, I guess.

  73. 73
    Ray pepper says:

    Agreed. To each his own. The only stress in my life comes from Coaching youth sports but it’s more of a rush then a stress. However, calls from the parents about their kids playing time, when they suck or are forced to play by their dad, does get me stressed.
    Macro I could give you specifics but what point would it serve? I would not profit in anyway from it. narcisstic tendencies keep me AND Kary coming back here. We both think we are smarter then the rest of you. No crime in that.

  74. 74

    By Ray pepper @ 71:

    Kary, let me educate you a bit on a potential deficiency judgement for myself. It’s non existent. We already have that IN WRITING! Bank of NY Mellon must file Judicially. Do you not know why? Look at the entities on title in 2nd and 3rd filing to protect their small investments. Know who they are? Let’s just say…. I do. We meet monthly. The bank only wants the property. They have been given 3 options. 100k cash for keys or Drop principle to 180k or lastly take another 2-3 years and thousands in Court costs at a Sheriffs Sale attempt with the 2 principles being the only bidder in the house and getting it at 100k. It’s win, win, win. While we wait it remains win win win. SLS had their chance 3 years ago when they modified, took the 3 trial payments, then transferred loan to another servicer who wasn’t obligated to accept. You see Kary our ducks are all in line and ready for the party. The problem is nobody ever shows up. Stay tuned. I expect resolution in another 2-3 years.

    Ray, that may fool the targets of your scams, but that is complete nonsense. But thank you for disclosing that there are two other people you owe money to as a result of your failed “investment” in a property which you tried but failed to flip.

  75. 75

    RE: Macro Investor @ 72 – Quite frankly, my main issue with Ray is that he was/is trying to get others to do what he has done. But for that I would have felt bad seeing that he was a defendant in a judicial foreclosure. As it, I’m glad it’s him as opposed to someone else that he’s suckered in with his nonsense.

    But you’ve got to love him. He even makes an offer in compromise sound good.

    http://taxes.about.com/od/offerincompromise/a/oic_essentials.htm

  76. 76
    ray pepper says:

    owe money to? All 3 of us bought the house! We share in the profits… But, please tell me who the target is of my scams? what is non sense? If one is to scam they are to profit from it are they not? If not what use is the Scam? Please elaborate …BTW you never did answer my questions….and just for the record why was your purchase in 2007 at over 400k such a brilliant idea? You stated because you wanted to own a home. That is sound financial advice? That is what people pay you for? Kary, what is your net worth? Is it just your house? I’m thinking its the 200k you have left in the home? Are you planning on selling to free up that Cash?….or as we like to say………….downsize…..?? Do you even have any cash to invest?………why do you feel bad seeing me in a Judicial Foreclosure? Its not only GOOD in our case its OUTSTANDING…I can see how you would find it scary..You only have the home you live in and if it was happening to your house I guess you would be frightened… The offer and compromise for 30k? Why so bad? I guess 30k is ALOT of dough to you and actually most people. So I understand…Its the amount of your BECU 2nd and apparently you find great wealth in 30k….I’m starting to see where your brain is at…Riddled with FEAR..Probably drive a 1995 F150 and wife has a 2003 Camry..I see and trying to understand.. The picture is getting clearer…But, I do agree with 1 thing you said………………….”You got to Love him.”” Now, that is the ONLY sense you have made in the last 2 weeks on our fun little “financial workshop” if you may..

  77. 77

    By ray pepper @ 76:

    owe money to? All 3 of us bought the house! We share in the profits… But, please tell me who the target is of my scams? what is non sense? If one is to scam they are to profit from it are they not? If not what use is the Scam? .

    As I’ve said, I don’t know what your scam is, but that’s the only explanation for still promoting what you did at the same time you were dealing with tax issues, which by your own admission required paying $30,000 in an offer in compromise, which BTW also means you agreed to a bunch of other terms with the IRS, and also means that your net worth at that point in time was also very low. The IRS wouldn’t accept $30,000 in an offer in compromise from someone as successful as you claim to be. So you’re likely trolling for someone to give you something because it appears to be well beyond just being unable to admit you made a huge mistake.

  78. 78

    By ray pepper @ 76:

    BTW you never did answer my questions….and just for the record why was your purchase in 2007 at over 400k such a brilliant idea? You stated because you wanted to own a home. That is sound financial advice? That is what people pay you for? Kary, what is your net worth? Is it just your house? I’m thinking its the 200k you have left in the home?

    Actually I did explain that, and it hasn’t been the first time I’ve explained that. Owning the house outright has allowed me to have an equal financial position over the roughly 8 years I’ve owned it as I would have had if I’d rented and earned $180,000 more over that time. You’re roughly $200,000 in the hole on your failed Tacoma flip (ignoring tax consequences and the amounts that you paid to fix up the dump). So of our 2007 purchases yours was a failure and mine a success. And of our 2008 attempts to sell, again yours a failure and mine a success.

    And BTW, you’re just embarrassing yourself on the $200,000 left comment. Seriously. You don’t know how to read a Realist report AND you don’t have a clue as to how to value property? Again it’s no wonder you discount your fees so heavily because you’re clearly incompetent.

    As to what my net worth is, that’s not relevant to this discussion. What is relevant to this discussion is pointing out to others that you are totally FoS because rather than being successful with your scheme you’ve been forced into an offer in compromise with the IRS and are dealing with a judicial foreclosure. Quite different than what you’ve advertised as you apparently troll for additional marks.

  79. 79
    Ray pepper says:

    200k in the hole? The house was only 250k when purchased? No payments in nearly 9 years? I assume your talking the 40k down? That was split between us 3 and the 13k in rehab. Now add rental income of that home of 1500 per mo which yielded just recently over 100k with no payments. Remember lender even pays taxes and Ins. However, you must also add in 3 trial modification payments but that home, for tax purposes, is still a cash cow and continues to pay off every month. i sense jealously Kary. You have no cash do you? your in your 60’s Kary and own nothing but your home which isn’t even paid off!! I see it everyday Kary. I see these Kary’s working at Home Depot, restaurants, and even returning to teaching. Some because of divorce but most due to no financial common sense. Kary, I’m assuming your in your 60’s. I do not know. Just looking at your pic. But, your obviously older and you have nothing except your leveraged home. Luckily, for you, homes are great forced savings accounts for millions who do not know what to do with their money. So I’m happy you have that but not happy that you owe so much on it.
    This is fun and I kind of look forward to this exchange daily. Kind of keeps me coming back to Bubble even though I do not know what topic on hand is. I’m happy Tim lifted the 5 comment limit.
    Kary, your not an idiot or incompetent. I hope my tone does not imply that or I apologize if I stated that. Your just not qualified to advise people on purchasing ANYTHING that is an investment. Unfortunately RE is always an investment. You have none and I equate it to going to a doctor who has no experience in the field. Sure you have bought some properties to live in over the years but that is of no value to the investor. Why you do not return to your legal field I’m uncertain. Have you ever told us? Curious?

  80. 80

    RE: Ray pepper @ 79 – No payments in 9 years doesn’t mean you’re not liable for those payments. You seem to keep forgetting that. But in any case, the point of this entire discussion, again, is you don’t have a pot to piss in. You’re pretending to be successful and know about real estate when really you’re a failure and very ignorant about real estate. Again you bought a flip in Tacoma in 2007 and were unable to sell it after fixing it up because you’re apparently as incompetent as a listing agent/firm as you are as a buyer’s agent.

    And in my 60s? Yet another thing you got wrong, but I want to know how you would think I would be in my 60s and have student loan debt? I doubt there are many people in their 60s who even incurred student loan debt, unless maybe they went to school later in life.

  81. 81
    Ray pepper says:

    Oops. I’m sorry. Guess one should never guess a mans age. I’m certain your nearing 60 then. You never commented on why not continuing to practice a real career in Law? I mean a real estate agent when all that time and money in law? If you were disbarred then feel free not to comment.

  82. 82

    By Ray pepper @ 81:

    Oops. I’m sorry. Guess one should never guess a mans age. I’m certain your nearing 60 then. You never commented on why not continuing to practice a real career in Law? I mean a real estate agent when all that time and money in law? If you were disbarred then feel free not to comment.

    I switched because 20 years of doing the same thing was enough, AND they were changing the bankruptcy code in ways I didn’t like. And if you knew squat about real estate you’d know that being a lawyer and a real estate agent is a huge advantage. It’s part of the reason why I understand your situation and you can’t begin to figure out mine (or even your own apparently).

    And not disbarred or even ever sanctioned. I wonder when you will quit with your stupid guesses which show your inability to research squat. Again you’re embarrassing your self by demonstrating your complete incompetence.

    If you had any skills at all you’d know how to look up my status as an attorney and that page would show you any disciplinary history in the relevant timeframe (not sure when they started reporting those things, but it was well before 10 years ago. How can you be a real estate agent and not be able to do any research on the people you’re dealing with? Pathetic doesn’t even begin to cover it. You’re over-charging your clients. You should go back to charging only $500 per transaction.

  83. 83
    Ray pepper says:

    I sense a little anger and elevated BP. Touched a nerve? Changing the BK code that you didn’t like? Kary… You must adapt in life. Life IS change! We must all be welcoming to the daily changes that life has in store for us. That’s what makes life worth living. If you would of stayed working as an Attorney you would presumably been even better at your craft. Your experience would of been priceless. Instead you walk away.
    Why would I look up your status as an Attorney or dig into your life further. To do that one would have to truly care. I was just wondering why so much time and money invested in College then to get a real estate license and join the lowest of the low. So it goes without saying you were very unsuccessful financially as an Attorney. This explains your only property in Renton.
    However, I have seen this before with a former RE Attorney working at Tacoma Dodge. Your not the first.
    What I do find interesting Kary is that you felt compelled to state you were not disbarred or even sanctioned. When I get asked about my RN Licensure I would never feel
    Compelled to state I was never sanctioned. I would assume that is a given. I’m learning more about you Kary by the day. I find it fascinating and maybe one day I will let you buy me lunch at Cheesecake Factory and you will be educated like you never have. Maybe it’s not too late for you and your not as old as you look. There is no way in hell that your my age of 48. You gotta be 59 then.

  84. 84

    By Ray pepper @ 83:

    I sense a little anger and elevated BP. Touched a nerve? Changing the BK code that you didn’t like? Kary… You must adapt in life. Life IS change!.

    No, I don’t need to adapt to a situation where I’m required to sign a reaffirmation agreement stating that the clients’ car loan won’t be an undue hardship on them, when it’s likely that the car loan was a significant factor in their needing to file bankruptcy. There were also other changes I didn’t care for, but that one was huge. I think I only had one client ever reaffirm a car loan, and that was because it was a van converted for use by his disabled child.

    Also, because of poor press reporting about the changes everyone and their brother was filing bankruptcy at the time I quit, meaning a significant lull in new cases was expected. That lull was probably worse than expected based on what I’ve heard, but of course the lull was short-lived because of the 2008 financial crisis.

    And finally, even without the changes in bankruptcy law, the chances in receivership law were also impacting the practice, taking away some of the more interesting cases.

    If you understood anything about bankruptcy and anything about real estate you would understand that my transition was not that significant of a transition. In bankruptcy houses and other property are often sold. It’s not like the change moved me into an area which was totally foreign.

    And finally, of course I’m going to respond about my attorney status after you say: “If you were disbarred then feel free not to comment.” I’m even less likely to leave that hanging than I’m going to leave any of the other nonsense you’ve posted about me hanging.

  85. 85
    Erik says:

    RE: Ray pepper @ 73
    I think you are the smartest one on this site. You know the most and I like that you share your knowledge. I think Kary and macro idiot are jealous of you. When I talked about making 128k on my condo remodel, people got very angry. They are just jealous.

    I think a lot of the computer people have low self esteem and seeing someone succeed makes them jealous because they are too dumb to figure it out.

  86. 86
    Ray pepper says:

    cant argue with you there. Just kind of perplexed how people can think they can sell something when they have nothing. If I was looking to buy any real estate I would always want someone who actually had a portfolio. I would guess 90% of agents are like Kary and own nothing. Sure many lost their homes in the crash and walked away. They are the true idiots. Those, like Kary, who bought their primary in 2007 and never took advantage of the once in a lifetime gift , that was handed to us all , are the next brain dead in line. We will never see this again and I truly wish I would of bought 3 additional in Salem. Oregon prior to the crash. 2 partners loaded up and in their 3rd modification while tenants just keep paying away. I was far too conservative . Our sole portfolio of 13, soon to be 12, is good but the best part is the liquidity. I cannot emphasize this enough. Stay very liquid and the Gems just come your way.

  87. 87

    By Ray pepper @ 86:

    BS, BS, BS and more BS. Pitch to con suckers. More BS. More BS

    My Ray to English translation.

    Give it up Ray. Not everyone considers being insolvent and having a big tax liability hanging over their head to be a “lifetime gift” but at your age it very well could be a burden for the rest of your life.

  88. 88

    By Ray pepper @ 71:

    The bank only wants the property. They have been given 3 options. 100k cash for keys or Drop principle to 180k or lastly take another 2-3 years and thousands in Court costs at a Sheriffs Sale attempt with the 2 principles being the only bidder in the house and getting it at 100k.

    On the topic of BS, that house is subject to the IRS lien. The only entity that will own that free and clear of the IRS lien is the bank or a purchaser at the foreclosure sale. Cash for keys or a principal reduction won’t do you any good, but hey, it sounds good, right?

  89. 89
    Ray pepper says:

    I suggest you recheck that IRS tax lien. Long gone Kary . Remember the 30k offer and compromise or did you forget already. Insolvent? How do you come up with that now?

  90. 90
    Jonness says:

    By Ray pepper @ 51:

    macro can u tell me a realistic scenario where a judge can ” take that all away in a heartbeat.”

    Drug sales?

  91. 91
    Jonness says:

    Kary vs Ray! This has been good. :)

    All I can add is, when it comes to RE investing, Ray is the real deal. Anybody who claims otherwise who hasn’t met him doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

    Kary is most likely a really good RE agent, but he clearly doesn’t understand investing.

  92. 92
    Voight-kampff says:

    Ray v.s Kary
    The rumble in the bubble!!!

    In the red corner we have kary “the esquire” Krismer

    In the blue corner we have ray “the claim jumpin” pepper

    Kary,
    a lawyer, an agent, and a man that simply wont back down… EVER!
    His plan:
    Be safe, play by the rules, don’t rock the boat.
    This is a conservative game to be played most conservatively.

    RAY,
    a nurse, a little league coach, and a well known cheese cake factory aficionado.
    His plan:
    Cash is king & risk is for pansies. many aspects of the RE buying game favor owners. Learn your outs.
    buy homes with the banks money, if value soars… Great,
    if value plummets… Great, ask for docs, stop paying mortgage, keep collecting the rent for as long as you could.(bonus* if banks have been careless with records.)
    By more gems with proceeds, then, rinse, repeat.

    This should be a great bout. Almost everyone is a little bit Ray or a little bit Kary.

    Leeeets geeeet reaaaaddddyyy toooo ruuuuuuuuuummmmmmbbbbblllllle

    Sorry I couldn’t sleep ;)

    I enjoy reading both of their comments,
    They are both great at what they do, but they should (and likely are) working with completely different subsets of people. And both groups would benefit in their own
    Respective way.

  93. 93
    Ray pepper says:

    I love the ” rinse and repeat” comment. Just so true!!!

  94. 94

    By Ray pepper @ 89:

    I suggest you recheck that IRS tax lien. Long gone Kary . Remember the 30k offer and compromise or did you forget already. Insolvent? How do you come up with that now?

    More BS Ray. The IRS lien is not long gone–check the docket of the judicial foreclosure. Check the Pierce County records for the release. And yes, to get the offer in compromise approved you had to have been insolvent, or lied about your financial condition. Which was it?

    Tim should have a poll to see how many people here believe your BS. It would substitute as a test for the IQ and education of the readers here.

  95. 95
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Jonness @ 91 – funny you mention the drug sales comment. This past 2 years my childhood friend has dumped 300k into a marijuana extraction business in Arlington. I toured it all last week and while completely legal in this state I’m the only skeptic. I dislike how federally chartered banks will not take their cash and they must use certain credit unions or 2-3 local banks. They believe the demand of MJ is in the drinkable form for people who do not consume liquor. They believe the 20-50 something’s want an option they can take to bars and sip while their friends consume booze. I read the label and 50 grams of sugar to disguise the terrible taste of MJ. Then I see all the MJ chocolates and malt balls all tasting equally terrible. Then a tray of little flakes of MJ that can be added to tea. Retail value of this little tray was 16k!! 5 of these trays sitting in front of me with buckets filled with MJ. All of this in a discreet warehouse that resembled the Willy Wonka Chocolate Factory.
    Upon leaving I had the same feeling I did when a partner dropped 180k into the Pierce County Casino business. How can you lose I remember them asking me? Same statement I was asked last week.
    The fact is With real estate the “rules” still remain heavily lopsided in favor of the buyer/owner. Fighting the Fed, State, City has proven to be losses for many around me. RE is the only investment that I know is a win/win financial scenario with so many ways to utilize leverage still in 2015. Even after the housing crash there is so much money out there wanting to lend and accept all the risk.
    I again walked away from what will most likely be HUGE because I’m just too conservative. On this blog I’m a rebel and a fool. Around partners , investors, and friends I’m the most conservative , non risk taker, and cheap guy in the house.
    Kary, in/re to my offer and compromise you must think outside the box and remember I never fight the Fed. Full disclosure and if I ever meet you in person I will tell you what was done in 6 little words. Even you would understand it. I’m surprised you haven’t figured it out already between Realist and tax records.

  96. 96

    RE: Ray pepper @ 95 – If it’s have wealth in a third party entity, like an LLC, you still need to disclose that.

    What amazes me though is that you put that Tacoma flip into an LLC. Rather obviously you’re not getting advice on what to do.

  97. 97

    I’ve met Ray Pepper in person, and I’ve met Kary Krismer in person. You know what? Neither of them in person is very much like they are online. Online, Kary can come off as a know it all, and can resort to mean spirited name calling. In person? Very nice. Good sense of humor. Online, Ray can come off as a carnival barker. In person? friendly, funny, and warm hearted.
    Online, I come off as reasonable and level headed. In person, I’m a raving lunatic.

  98. 98
    boater says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 97
    Stay online Ira and stay out of the fight. The world needs nice,sane people on the Internet. Both of them.

  99. 99

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 97 – Oh, but Ira, you have no idea how much I had to bite my tongue. ;-)

  100. 100
    Ray pepper says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 99 – let it all out Kary. Don’t keep it bottled up! This is fun!! It’s summer. I’m on vacation until After Puyallup Fair! Come on. Bring it on!!

  101. 101

    RE: Ray pepper @ 100 – I meant about Ira, and was joking. I was implying that I want to correct a lot of what he says when we’re together.

    The thing about Ira, unlike most the other agents here, is that he doesn’t spout off a bunch of nonsense about himself–just the opposite really. If he’s going to say something and he feels there might be some shortcoming in his basis for saying whatever, he’ll usually come out and say that. Stated differently, Ira seemingly has fairly high ethics when it comes to promoting himself. Also if he’s unsure of an answer, he’ll say it. I appreciate that.

    When I first started posting as an agent I tended to support the abilities of agents against consumer attacks. Having been exposed to more and more incompetent, unethical and downright dishonest agents over the years, I’m much less likely to do that now. I think consumers have some very valid complaints, but they don’t understand the specifics, or the underlying problems that well. They just know there’s a problem, and they’re right. There are too many bad agents out there, and not enough is being done about it.

  102. 102
    Ray pepper says:

    One of the few things I will ever agree with you about Kary. I wouldn’t say bad agents. I would say incompetent. I have never met such a worthless group of people then I have in the real estate arena. Never in the military or in health care have I been surrounded by such poor, ignorant, idiots. That’s what occurs when the bar is set so low for entry.

  103. 103

    RE: Ray pepper @ 102 – I think it’s more of a lack of oversight issue than a bar to entry issue. And part of that is that there’s no requirement to turn in every offer or counteroffer an agent writes. And no requirement at all to disclose any client contact. There are a lot of things an agent can do that the designated broker would have no way of knowing about.

    Imagine a large law firm that allowed associates to just do whatever they wanted with little or no supervision or guidance, and you’d have a typical real estate firm (based on the stuff I see going on from other agents).

  104. 104
    Erik says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 97
    Yeah, tell me about it… Online I sound dumb. In real life I’m a genius.

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