Case-Shiller: More Strong Price Gains in May

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to April data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.4% April to May
Up 7.4% YOY.
Down 6.1% from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices rose 1.4% month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 9.3%.

The Seattle area’s month-over-month home price changes shrank slightly from April to May, but the year-over-year change held steady.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes fell from #1 in April to #6 in May. No other metro area saw home prices increase more over the month than they did in Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In May, four of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one fewer than in April):

  • Denver at +10.0%
  • San Francisco at +9.7%
  • Dallas at +8.4%
  • Miami at +8.0%

Fifteen cities gained less than Seattle as of May: Portland, Las Vegas, Tampa, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Charlotte, San Diego, Detroit, Phoenix, Minneapolis, New York, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, and Washington.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through May.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the ninety-four months since the price peak in Seattle prices are down 6.1%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of May 2015, Seattle prices are approximately where they were in July 2006.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2015-07-28)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

2 comments:

  1. 1
    sleepless says:

    2015 is the momentum of 2014, which was the momentum of 2013. Will 2016 be the momentum of 2015?

  2. 2
    ess says:

    And rents will continue to increase to match the housing prices.

    Which raises a chicken and egg question that I have not been able to get the answer to.

    Are rents driving the higher prices of houses for sale?
    Or are higher prices of houses driving the rents higher and higher?

    Or is it a glorious confluence of everything put together?

    I will be interesting to see how all of the above plays out. I am sure there will be more demands for rent control as both prices escalate.

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