July Stats Preview: Stale Summer Edition

July is in the books, so let’s have a look at our monthly stats preview. First up, here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snhomish County Stats Preview

Sales came down just slightly from the multi-year highs they hit in June, inventory turned in another weak gain, and foreclosures continued to shrink to pre-bubble levels.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County fell 2 percent between June and July (in 2014 they rose 1 percent over the same period), and were up 18 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish fell 1 percent month-over-month (vs. flat in the same period last year) and were up 16 percent from July 2014.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 46 percent from a year ago, and Snohomish County was down 33 percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 21 percent from a year ago, and down just barely from a month ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Inventory inched up once again slightly in both counties month-over-month. King is currently down 27 percent from last year and Snohomish is down 18 percent.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

15 comments:

  1. 1
    HappyRenter says:

    Sorry for posting a bit off topic.

    Martin Armstrong has an article on real estate on his blog:

    The Risk of Real Estate – Forget Derivative & Fiat

  2. 2
    Elizabeth says:

    Doomsday scenarios are fun to read about, but not take seriously. I remember not too long ago, the gloom crowd were predicting a massive depression with the crash in Japan. Funny, that just prior to that, the predictive $ were on Japan crushing us.
    Firstly, the U.S. RE market is not based on “150” year mortgages (and as I remember, the longest ones in Japan were 100 year), and much of our volume comes from the 20 percent plus down crowd.

  3. 3

    RE: Elizabeth @ 2

    Its The Whole World Pushing Us to the Brink of Economic Failure

    snippet:

    “…No country is in bigger hock than Japan; its public debt was 235 percent of GDP last year, the highest in the world, according to the McKinsey institute. Most of that, though, is owed to Japanese citizens and its own government, as opposed to external or foreign creditors, as in Greece’s case.

    So despite its inability as yet to pull out of its long economic doldrums, the Japanese government isn’t operating in fear that investors will suddenly get nervous and run for the exits. In weighing debt sustainability, what matters is who holds the loans and the credit reputation of the borrower….”

    http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/rising-global-debt-heightens-risk-of-another-financial-crisis/

  4. 4
    Elizabeth says:

    I believe the doom and gloom catastrophic scenarios are wired into our DNA. Depending on how you look at it, we are always on the edge. I personally go by my very own “Harry Dent” index. Right now he is predicting economic decimation – so I’m somewhat bullish.

  5. 5
    Blurtman says:

    The whole system is a gigantic fraud which I believe more and more people are starting to realize. Who headed up Goldman Sachs when the firm created strategies to hide Greece’s debt? Hank Paulson. Who head up up Goldman Sachs when they admitted, afterwards, to committing massive fraud? Hank Paulson. Who was the recent US Treasury Secretary? Hank Paulson.

    Most people around the world have to exchange their labor and their time to buy a home, for example. People at certain institutions can create money out of thin air, commit crimes, and do no jail time.

    I think people are slowly awakening to this bogus system, and it is about time.

  6. 6
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 5
    Are you saying bankers lie to make a profit? Unbelievable!

  7. 7
    Elizabeth says:

    All I’m saying is that pick any point in history and you can show were on the verge of catastrophe. We as a world in 2015 have better access to healthcare, clean water, education, labor saving devices, etc. than anytime in history. There are difficulties/challenges/potential disasters everywhere. Always have, always will.

  8. 8
    nathan118 says:

    By Elizabeth @ 7:

    All I’m saying is that pick any point in history and you can show were on the verge of catastrophe. We as a world in 2015 have better access to healthcare, clean water, education, labor saving devices, etc. than anytime in history. There are difficulties/challenges/potential disasters everywhere. Always have, always will.

    Except sometimes we actually are on the verge of catastrophe, and sometimes we’re not.

  9. 9
    Elizabeth says:

    I digress. So, I am interested in buying a pied a terre in NE Seattle. Obviously, now is not the right time.

  10. 10
    Blurtman says:

    By Elizabeth @ 9:

    I digress. So, I am interested in buying a pied a terre in NE Seattle. Obviously, now is not the right time.

    On the other hand, a major earthquake, nuclear war, lahar, or unusual firestorms from the sky could mean it’s now or never.

  11. 11
    Elizabeth says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 10 – As the young say, LOL

  12. 12
    Erik says:

    RE: Elizabeth @ 9
    It’s not obvious to me. I think prices will keep rising for years to come. We may platue, but I don’t see a big correction for a while. And that correction won’t drive prices lower than they are today.

    How is it obviously a bad time to buy?

  13. 13
    ess says:

    I don’t think anyone really knows if it is a good time or bad time to buy. Looking around the United States, there are markets in which houses are priced much less than a typical Seattle house, as well as markets that make Seattle look like a bargain. I think it is a question of individual markets, supply and demand, employment, interest rates, inflation, time horizons as well as other issues. In my opinion, the housing market is like the stock market, ups and downs, but over time a steady increase. And with all purchases, buying a house has to make either economic or emotional sense, or both.

  14. 14
    Elizabeth says:

    By Erik @ 12:

    RE: Elizabeth @ 9
    It’s not obvious to me. I think prices will keep rising for years to come. We may platue, but I don’t see a big correction for a while. And that correction won’t drive prices lower than they are today.

    How is it obviously a bad time to buy?

    I have bought land lately. I’m waiting for more of those apartment complexes to be completed before I buy a condo or townhouse. Not enough inventory and Ioathe bidding wars

  15. 15
    Erik says:

    RE: Elizabeth @ 14
    Yeah, hopefully the price of my condo keeps going up. Hard to lose with waterfront in Seattle I’d imagine.

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