NWMLS: Sales Slow in August as Prices Continue Surging

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August market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Before we get into our monthly stats, here’s a quick look at their press release.

Opinions vary on possibility of a housing slowdown, but numbers show solid activity

Some brokers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service detected a slowdown in housing activity during August, “but nowhere near what is typical,” according to one industry veteran. Among MLS leaders who commented on the service’s latest report, expectations for the remainder of 2015 ranged from one who predicted “we’re on the cusp of a slowdown,” to others describing activity as “torrid” and saying “sales will continue at a fast pace.”

No home salesperson ever went wrong predicting that a hot market will continue. Er, wait.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

August 2015 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 3,490 -1.7% -29.7%
Closed Sales 2,575 -11.2% +8.0%
SAAS (?) 1.25 +6.6% -6.1%
Pending Sales 2,971 -7.1% +6.8%
Months of Supply 1.36 +10.7% -34.9%
Median Price* $499,950 +3.1% +14.4%

Summary: No sign of any dramatic changes. The market is still strongly in sellers’ favor, and looks like it will stay that way for quite a while.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell 11 percent from July to August. Last year they also fell about 11 percent over the same period. The prior ten years (2004-2013) saw an average 2 percent decline in closed sales between July and August, so the last two years the market has been slowing in August a lot more quickly than has been typical. Meanwhile year-over-year closed sales dropped to the lowest level since January.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory dropped slightly from July to August, while the year-over-year number fell to its lowest point since April 2013.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

Everything in this chart is still in sellers’ favor, but the demand side (closed sales) has at least been inching back toward buyer’s territory for the last few months.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Huge swing from +3.6 percent in July to +14.4 percent in August.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

The median home price hit a new all-time high in August (not adjusted for inflation).

August 2015: $499,950
July 2007: $481,000 (pre-2015 high)

Here’s this month’s article from the Seattle Times: Condo prices climbing even faster than houses

Check back on Monday for the full reporting roundup.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

47 comments:

  1. 1
    Erik says:

    Seattle condo prices are up 20% in Seattle from when I bought according to the article in this post. Seems like I keep landing on winning properties. It’s almost like I study the market and choose the right property every time. Who knew even someone like myself from the streets of north Everett could be successful. I am thankful for everyday since I moved out of that white trash swamp.

  2. 2
    Erik says:

    I told you meek buyers to buy. If you didn’t listen, you deserve this. Next year will most likely be a repeat of this year. My prediction is pain again next year for buyers in Seattle. Wait another year and us home owners will raise the price another $50k. Complain on this site again and we’ll raise prices $80k. I dare you to complain about low inventory.

  3. 3
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 1:

    I am thankful for everyday since I moved out of that white trash swamp.

    “Rich” on paper, poor on cash…

  4. 4
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 2:

    I told you meek buyers to buy. If you didn’t listen, you deserve this.

    OK, you convinced me, I will buy you condo two years from now at 50% discount. For now, I will keep my “wordless” cash. you can keep your “paper” condo…

  5. 5
    sleepless says:

    I remember those “smart” Eriks back in 2008 were screaming that the home prices will go up, buy now or be out-priced forever…. What happened to those “smart” folks we all know… 2015 = 2008, only fools keep buying in this market. The DOW is almost $16K, my prediction still stands, see you on the other side when DOW goes below $16K. But again, unless the FED intervenes with QE4 and ZIRP/NIRP forever, the party is pretty much over.

  6. 6
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 4
    Isn’t cash made out of paper? I think you have it mixed up.

    Okay, $80k it is. Check back with me next year when I raise Seattle housing prices another double digit gain. You did this to yourself. You are to blame for next years median price explosion.

    My stocks and retirement are all in cash. I think the stock market will go down another 10%. That doesn’t mean the housing market will go down 10% dum dum.

  7. 7
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 6:

    RE: sleepless @ 4
    Isn’t cash made out of paper? I think you have it mixed up. .

    Obviously, we can buy food and pay bills with your condo, right? I can turn my cash into a condo or other real estate pretty easily, try to do the same with your real estate :)

  8. 8
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 7
    Real estate prices don’t follow the stock market. My stocks are in cash. Real estate will go up next year.

  9. 9
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 8:

    RE: sleepless @ 7
    Real estate prices don’t follow the stock market.

    Sure, they don’t, unless the last 15 years of the home prices disprove you… Since the Greenspan the real estate was the mirror of the stock market as the whole ponzy recovery was built on the “wealth effect” – inflate the stocks and housing, so people will spend more and use the homes as ATM when needed. I am afraid to disappoint you, but the last 5-6 years of “recovery” was driven by the investors like Blackstones ans Eriks grabbing anything in their site, courtesy of the FED MBS buy backs and ZIRP. Lets see what happens when the sh!t show is over? For housing market to be healthy you need people with incomes buying homes, not flippers and investors. But people are too broke to buy homes. Raise you condo price by $200K, why just $80K? There is always a pool of greater fools to dump it on…

  10. 10
    greg says:

    RE: Erik @ 8

    while it is true real estate and stock market are not joined at the hip.

    Seattle does have a disproportionate amount of people who rely on tech and its stocks for money. those sales people at the Porsche dealer in Bellevue will not be buying too many houses if the stock market implodes.

    Stocks could soften demand. A turn in sentiment could loosen up those sticky owners who have 2 or more properties. I know lots of people in tech who have been buying additional properties to round out their portfolios. I have warned them to spread the risk but I fear it falls on deaf ears….

  11. 11
    sleepless says:

    These apartments were finished a couple of months ago – http://www.mainstreetbellevue.com/, Main St Flats. I passed by them yesterday round 9 pm, what i noticed as that only a couple of windows with lights :) :) :). Meaning, the significant part of the complex is empty. I see their signs all over Bellevue, even in Kirkland on Lake Wa blvd. I wonder what is up? Why people are not renting?

  12. 12
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 10
    I think the Dow jones will go down another 10%. That is why I don’t think that the stock market will affect housing prices in Seattle much.

    The eastside is more volatile. That’s why I dumped my condo on the eastside and moved to Seattle. Plus I like Seattle a lot more. Kirkland is nice, but the software people kinda ruin it for the rest of us.

  13. 13
    kenmorem says:

    i can’t believe people actually read and process what erik writes. same thing, every post. all written like a 4 year old. fun stuff.

  14. 14
    Dana says:

    Love the site and the data, but the comment sections seriously seems like just copy paste from Erik and everyone else. I wish there was some sort of way to better sort through the comments to get the best content near the top.

  15. 15
    sleepless says:

    Why this “recovery” or this time is different? Should we compare with the crash f 2008-2009 which was barely a sneeze of what is coming? Look around you, what do you see? I can tell what I see – historical number of people of food-stamps – 50+mil, historical number of people on disabilities – 90+ mil. Historical number of people out of labor force, the debts, starting with the governments and to the consumer debt at the historical high. The interest rates are at the historical low. How is that a good environment for housing prices to go up? You need people to buy homes, couples making families. None of that is happening. The home owner ship rates is at multi-generational low. Every single thing you look at is negative. Erik boasts about his condo going up? Ok, you got a lottery ticket, not because you were smart, but because you were lucky. If the FED didn’t intervene with QE and ZIRP/NIRP 6 years ago, where do you think your condo price would’ve been. The “stupid” people who didn’t buy, actually, believed in fundamentals and strong monetary policies. Who could’ve predicted the sh!t show could go on for so long. People speak about hi tech jobs, migration and other things. Those do affect the Seattle market, those were true 5, 10, 15 years ago. The reason we have so many bubbles, including the housing market, is not people buying/not buying homes, it is the FED monetary policies.

  16. 16
    Erik says:

    RE: Dana @ 14
    I think my comments are wonderful. If you don’t like the comments, then don’t hit that link.

  17. 17
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 13
    You are an angry programmer from kenmore I see. How can I improve my comments? Not write the truth?

  18. 18
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 15
    Right. Tim could predict this. Corndogs could predict this. Ray pepper could predict this. I followed them and made a stack of cash.

    You were not smart enough to either a. figure it out yourself or b. Realize you aren’t that smart and follow someone that is smarter. I fall under b. At the end of the day, the smart people and us followers get paid the same. Your group, group c, got paid nothing because you don’t realize you are one of the dumb ones on here.

  19. 19
    Blurtman says:

    By Erik @ 1:

    Who knew even someone like myself from the streets of north Everett could be successful. I am thankful for everyday since I moved out of that white trash swamp.

    Straight Outta Everett

    Straight outta Everett crazy motherfreaker named Erik
    From the gang called Flipperz With Attitudes
    When I’m called off I got a sawed off
    Squeeze the trigger and bodies are hauled off
    You too boy if ya freak with me
    The police are gonna hafta come and get me
    Off yo flip that’s how I’m goin out
    For the punk motherfreakers that’s showin out
    Flipperz start to mumble, they wanna rumble
    Mix em and cook em in a pot like gumbo

  20. 20
    sleepless says:

    By Blurtman @ 19:

    By Erik @ 1:

    Who knew even someone like myself from the streets of north Everett could be successful. I am thankful for everyday since I moved out of that white trash swamp.

    Straight Outta Everett

    This is what you need for “success” nowadays. This is sad… I was wrong thinking you need to be smart, work hard, become entrepreneur, build a business or grow in your career. But that is not a secret to success nowadays, “working” and “building a business” is for losers. All you need to be “successful” is to buy “low” and to sell “high”. I wish we all could be just as successful as Erik.

  21. 21
  22. 22
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 20
    Yeah, isn’t that what we are doing here? I’m trying to help you fix your thinking so you can make a profit in real estate like I do. I don’t know how to get rich yet, but I can probably help you put about $50k in your pocket you wouldn’t have had otherwise over the next few years by buying and selling your primary residence at the right times.

    When king county inventory gets up to 8000 sell. We are around 3000 now, so we have years of appreciation. Don’t buy in poor areas either. With real estate it seems like the nice areas get nicer and the poor areas get poorer. And lastly, find something newer than 1970 that needs paint, flooring, and appliances. Thank me when you sell in 2 years and make over $50k.

    Now rent and wait for the bubble to burst. It may or may not burst, but either way, you are in the same position only richer with very low risk. If you are so dumb that you think the bubble will burst with extremely low inventory, then you are just an idiot and cannot be helped.

  23. 23
    sleepless says:

    By Erik @ 22:

    RE: sleepless @ 20
    Yeah, isn’t that what we are doing here? I’m trying to help you fix your thinking so you can make a profit in real estate like I do. I don’t know how to get rich yet, but I can probably help you put about $50k in your pocket you wouldn’t have had otherwise over the next few years by buying and selling your primary residence at the right times.

    When king county inventory gets up to 8000 sell. We are around 3000 now, so we have years of appreciation. Don’t buy in poor areas either. With real estate it seems like the nice areas get nicer and the poor areas get poorer. And lastly, find something newer than 1970 that needs paint, flooring, and appliances. Thank me when you sell in 2 years and make over $50k.

    Now rent and wait for the bubble to burst. It may or may not burst, but either way, you are in the same position only richer with very low risk.

    I don’t even know where t start… Ok, let me try…

    Yeah, isn’t that what we are doing here? I’m trying to help you fix your thinking so you can make a profit in real estate like I do…

    OK, you got lucky with one condo, now it makes you an “expert” in real estate investment. I remember those “experts” were calling to buy in 2008 and make you rich. All those seminars and programs $1000+ each. Sounds like a scam…

    When king county inventory gets up to 8000 sell. We are around 3000 now, so we have years of appreciation.

    i is not just supply, it is supply and demand. Higher interest rates, lower wages, bad unemployment kill the demand. Make sure you have nuf buyers for those 3000 home because the the sh!t hits the fan, lots of eriks will run for exit and that 3000 homes will become 15000 homes with no buyers around.

    Don’t buy in poor areas either. With real estate it seems like the nice areas get nicer and the poor areas get poorer.

    You know, nowadays middle class cannot afford those nicer areas no more, people buy where they can afford, and in the bubble they can afford very little.

    Now rent and wait for the bubble to burst. It may or may not burst, but either way, you are in the same position only richer with very low risk.

    No we are not in the same position. I am a down payment + interest + taxes + insurance + maintenance richer than you. And, my cash is waaaaaaaaaay more liquid than a home. I have it when i need it. Where will you get cash, when you need it, Erik? Risks? Hm… didn’t housing drop 30-40% during the last crash? What makes you think it wont lose as much or even more during the next one?

    Again, it all reminds me a cheap scam show like flip a house and get rich sh!t. Everyone flipping houses is so smart and everyone else buying those houses is so stupid. Like any financial scam pyramid or bubble, those who sell first benefit the most. Make sure, Erik, you are not among the ones who sell the last.

  24. 24

    By Dana @ 14:

    Love the site and the data, but the comment sections seriously seems like just copy paste from Erik and everyone else. I wish there was some sort of way to better sort through the comments to get the best content near the top.

    The best comments are the ones between where is says “XX Comments:” and where it shows the first comment. ;-)

    The problem is the stats have been fairly boring for at least a year. Notwithstanding record highs, it’s been more of the same old same old, month after month after month. So except for some people claiming that they know more than what they do, there’s really not much being said. The one exception would be some of Tim’s comments, such as the one about a month ago pointing out that the changes in mix in areas affects the median. Yet another way the median can be deceiving. But overall the stats recently have been as exciting as watching paint dry. So don’t expect interesting comments regarding the stats until there are some significant changes to the stats (e.g. more inventory).

    A few years ago someone said the bottom isn’t as fun as what we thought it would be. Well IMHO neither was the recovery, if you can call it that. I’m not so sure the market is any healthier now than what it was. It just has different problems than what it used to have. But not much of that shows up in the stats.

  25. 25
    StupidLifeDecisions says:

    I’m certainly not a real estate expert, but I’ve been looking at condo listings for the last two years, since I’ve been wanting to buy for the last two years, but had to save the down payment. I’m at the lower end of the market so I’ve only been looking at prices up to $275k. When you look at the price history (not always available but sometimes it is), some of them are still priced lower than the price they were purchased at in early to mid 2000’s. I’ve also read and heard stories that make me think condo’s have a more likely chance of depreciating than a house would, which would especially be the case in Seattle. When all the new housing is built, and the tech companies here do massive lay offs, and the stock market and economy slow down or maybe even crash, a lot of the stuff in my price range right now will depreciate.

    The problem to me isn’t really the high price of real estate here (although I don’t like that a quarter of a million dollars won’t buy me much), I’m more concerned that if I buy in the next few months, whatever I buy will be a lot less money in the next two years.

    I’m having a hard time understanding why people are so optimistic that there won’t be some sort of crash in the next two years.

    At any rate, I just want to make the best financial decision and I’m having a hard time determining what that is. If I buy in my price range today, it will still be cheaper than the crap apartment I am living in, even when you factor in HOA fees and taxes.

    P.S. I like this blog and have been checking it multiple times a day for new comments!

  26. 26
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 23
    You are right. Stick with the same plan that has worked so well for you so far. Goodbye.

  27. 27
    Erik says:

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 25
    The reason people are so optimistic is because we are at 1.25 months of inventory. That will drive prices up.

    You can lose your down payment, but you can always walk away if you don’t want the house anymore and it goes down in price. You can follow sleepless’s brilliant plan of living paycheck to paycheck and renting in fear of failure or you can pull your head out of your a$$ and take a small risk.

    I agree though, when builders start building more condo complexes, condo price appreciation will slow down.

  28. 28
    ess says:

    The problem to me isn’t really the high price of real estate here (although I don’t like that a quarter of a million dollars won’t buy me much), I’m more concerned that if I buy in the next few months, whatever I buy will be a lot less money in the next two years.

    As the above writer says, buying real estate is based upon many factors – too many to enumerate here. But that is what makes life so exciting – there are no guarantees! Good luck with your decision.

  29. 29
    boater says:

    By StupidLifeDecisions @ 25:

    The problem to me isn’t really the high price of real estate here (although I don’t like that a quarter of a million dollars won’t buy me much), I’m more concerned that if I buy in the next few months, whatever I buy will be a lot less money in the next two years.

    How long do you want to hold the home for? Are you prepared to be here for 5+ years? 20+? Buying a home is a losing proposition from day one if you intend to leave the area and sell within traditionally five years. I bought in 2010 guessing that was close to the bottom but not knowing for sure. But I plan on being in this house for 20 years and owning my other houses for decades if not until I die. Ownership is for people who are committed to something. If that’s you then just like in stocks don’t worry that you might go down tomorrow just figure that over a long enough period you’ll do better than people who jump in and out.

  30. 30
    Blurtman says:

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 25 – Buy a place you like. It’s a place to live, not an investment. It is very difficult to time the RE market and thinking you can may induce a state of paralysis. RE prices can go up and down in the short run, but the dollar always goes down in the long term.

  31. 31

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 24
    I agree Kary Boring Stats Recently

    And quality predictive analyses don’t mix. Perhaps I need to join Tim’s New Blog Club for a paltry $50/yr and maybe get the free tee shirt. Tim’s on to something.

  32. 32
    Jay says:

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 25 – Wait till the winter, and start touring with your agent after Thanksgiving. I bought my house on the Eastside in the winter, and the house was on the market for a long time, so I was able to negotiate for a price reduction. The house is fine and on a great location, but somehow a lot of buyers don’t see the true values of housing when the weather is cold and rainy. Most people fall in love with the staging and professional photos, which tend to inflate the values and to cause bidding wars.

    If you find a place that you like to stay for at least 5 years, and as long as you can afford the payments, then you are more likely making a good decision for buying. The important thing is your own sanity, so don’t buy a place that is cheap but you hate living in it.

  33. 33
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Jay @ 32 – I did the same thing. Bought in late November (the week after Thanksgiving) – found my house in the Sunday newspaper, of all places! My realtor still got paid the same however. But that’s a different topic.

  34. 34

    RE: Jay @ 32 – Showings can decrease significantly after Thanksgiving because people are doing other things, like shopping for Xmas, going to Xmas parties, etc. The slowdown in activity can make a seller nervous.

    But the bigger advantage of looking at that time is there will almost certainly have been rain, so water issues will be much more apparent. That’s also a factor for septic inspections.

  35. 35

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 25
    Whatever you buy might be worth a lot less in the next two years. The plus is that the property taxes should drop some. But, indeed, in 2006-2007, before the housing market crashed, the fastest growing segments were condos and the lower tier. It doesn’t mean that this market is about to crash, but it does indicate to me that this market is “mature”. And, if you’re looking to buy a condo that you will occupy, it never makes sense to plan on occupying it for two years, especially with transaction costs being so high.
    If you think you might need to sell a condo in two years, don’t buy one. Too risky.

  36. 36
    Jay says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34RE: Erik @ 1 – People spend lots of money on Thanksgiving, Christmas and Vacations, so they have less money for buying a place.

    Kary is right, it is easier to look at defects in winter than in summer. You don’t need to pay for expensive inspection to see if the house/condo leaks or not.

  37. 37
    Jay says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 35 – It is hard to say that the market is “mature” or not. There is still very little inventory, and cash buyers are still buying rental properties in my neighborhood. It is definitely not a good time to be a buyer right now.

  38. 38
    ess says:

    By Jay @ 37:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 35 – It is hard to say that the market is “mature” or not. There is still very little inventory, and cash buyers are still buying rental properties in my neighborhood. It is definitely not a good time to be a buyer right now.

    Which raises an interesting question – where in Puget Sound are investors still buying single family houses? Do they go for the expensive areas and get the big time rent – or the outlying neighborhoods which have less expensive properties but command less rent. Or is it a mixture of everything – so long as the numbers of the deal work out?

  39. 39
    MD says:

    Seattle is driven primarily by Amazonians and the Chinese. Does that sound like a city you want to live in? Software nerds, and corrupt, arrogant ChiComs?

    I don’t want to live there. I’ve decided that I don’t want Seattle anymore. You guys can keep it, I’m done. Have fun with your nerds and your corrupt Chinese clones.

  40. 40
    Josh says:

    It seems like the growth rate is fairly in line with the region. Compare that to the midwest and northeast: http://www.thanmerrill.com/fortunebuilders-2015-real-estate-trends/.

  41. 41

    By Jay @ 36:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 34 – – Kary is right, it is easier to look at defects in winter than in summer. You don’t need to pay for expensive inspection to see if the house/condo leaks or not.

    I wouldn’t go that far. Even ignoring the other reasons to do an inspection, an inspector would likely have some more advanced tools for checking for moisture than just their senses. Also, most buyers don’t really want to crawl the perimeter of the attic and crawlspace. It might be less important on a condo, but I have had an inspector catch a cracked sewer pipe immediately under the unit being purchased. The association fixed it, but it probably would have eventually become unpleasant inside the unit if it had not been caught.

  42. 42
    Jay says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 41 – What I mean is that if there is a major leak, it is pretty obvious to see water marks in the winter.

  43. 43
    Shoeguy says:

    By Erik @ 27:

    RE: StupidLifeDecisions @ 25
    The reason people are so optimistic is because we are at 1.25 months of inventory. That will drive prices up.

    You can lose your down payment, but you can always walk away if you don’t want the house anymore and it goes down in price. You can follow sleepless’s brilliant plan of living paycheck to paycheck and renting in fear of failure or you can pull your head out of your a$$ and take a small risk.

    I agree though, when builders start building more condo complexes, condo price appreciation will slow down.

    Are you saying that it’s not possible to be in a Housing Bubble with only 1.25 months of supply?

    That’s dangerous thinking.

  44. 44
    Bob says:

    Today’s job aren’t as stable as they used to be. The days of buying your house, furnishing it nicely, and planning to live there for 20-30 years are over. You have to be nimble enough to accept another job in a different location of Seattle or in a different city. You always want to live close to your job, and that means renting is the best route to go for most people.

  45. 45
    Erik says:

    RE: Shoeguy @ 43
    Extremely unlikely to have a bubble burst at 1.25 months of inventory. There is always a surplus of inventory before the bubble bursts.

  46. 46

    RE: Erik @ 45

    Usually the surplus of inventory builds after the bubble bursts. The decline in prices happens slowly…more like a slow leak than a “burst”. The bursting of the bubble is the event that causes the rise to stop…level out…and then begin the slide down. Inventory builds as prices slide because the amount people are willing to pay falls before the amount sellers are willing to take.

  47. 47
    Shoeguy says:

    By Erik @ 45:

    RE: Shoeguy @ 43
    Extremely unlikely to have a bubble burst at 1.25 months of inventory. There is always a surplus of inventory before the bubble bursts.

    To reinforce what Ardell said, there are plenty of news articles still online from 2006 that talk about the extremely limited inventory when talking about the lack of a Housing Bubble back then.

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