Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Strong in September

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to August data that was released today, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.2 percent August to September
Up 8.2 percent YOY.
Down 4.2 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were down 0.3 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 5.9 percent.

The Seattle area’s month-over-month home price change was positive in September, which is slightly unusual for this time of year. Thanks to the continued gains, the year-over-year price change rose to a fifteen-month high.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes rose from #12 in August to #10 in September.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In September, four of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same number as August):

  • San Francisco at +11.2%
  • Denver at +10.9%
  • Portland at +10.1%
  • Dallas at +9.0%

Denver, Dallas, Portland, and Boston all hit new all-time highs again in September.

Fifteen cities gained less than Seattle as of September: Miami, San Diego, Tampa, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Detroit, Phoenix, Boston, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Cleveland, New York, Washington, and Chicago.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through September.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the ninety-eight months since the price peak in Seattle prices are down 4.2 percent.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of September 2015, Seattle prices are approximately where they were in February 2007.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2015-11-24)

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

11 comments:

  1. 1
    kenmorem says:

    one of our (now) rental properties was purchased in november 2006. according to the charts, it should be priced the same right now. however, i am 100% certain that i could easily list it for 15% over the original purchase price and get multiple offers and a bidding war.

    so, i’m not sure how accurate these data are. of course, location matters, but i don’t think this property is anything unique location-wise.

  2. 2
    The Tim says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 1 – Well, keep in mind the Case-Shiller data is for all of King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties lumped together. If your property is in Seattle proper or north King County, I would not be at all surprised if it could sell today for 15% more than the 2006 price.

  3. 3

    By kenmorem @ 1:

    one of our (now) rental properties was purchased in november 2006. according to the charts, it should be priced the same right now. however, i am 100% certain that i could easily list it for 15% over the original purchase price and get multiple offers and a bidding war.

    so, i’m not sure how accurate these data are. of course, location matters, but i don’t think this property is anything unique location-wise.

    Even if you looked at data for your particular NWMLS area (of which there are about 50 areas in King County) it wouldn’t give you much of an idea what your house is worth. Different price ranges and even different house styles change in value differently.

    One of the stupidest things I ever heard said in an office meeting was that agents should price prospective seller’s houses by looking at the median for the area when they seller bought and then adjust based on the current data.

  4. 4
    MoreMortgagesThanAStripper says:

    The return has been hyper-local. Ballard? Way above 2006 prices. Spanaway? Still trying to get there…

  5. 5
    ess says:

    To paraphrase Tip ONeil who once said all politics are local
    So is housing!
    Happy Thanksgiving to all

  6. 6
    Jeff says:

    For the “Total change since peak” graph, is this data inflation adjusted?RE: The Tim @ 2

  7. 7

    By ess @ 5:

    To paraphrase Tip ONeil who once said all politics are local

    I wish that were true, because then I wouldn’t be hearing so much about Donald Trump.

  8. 8
    Blurtman says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 6:

    By ess @ 5:

    To paraphrase Tip ONeil who once said all politics are local

    I wish that were true, because then I wouldn’t be hearing so much about Donald Trump.

    If he is elected, Inslee needs to build a wall.

  9. 9

    On the topic of Detroit, people should watch Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown on the city. He says something to the effect that he’s been a lot of places, but the only place like Detroit he’s been is Chernobyl!

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GLMIZTE/ref=dv_dp_ep8

    (Episode 8 of Season 2).

  10. 10
    Blurtman says:

    Take a drive through Flint and see what happens when major employers cut back. Google photos of the old Bethlehem Steel plant in Bethlehem. There is a nice running trail that parallels the gargantuan plant. That place is mind-blowing.

  11. 11
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 10 – I lived in Flint during the Roger and Me era, 1984-86 when the beginnings of the major GM plant layoffs were happening. It wasn’t pretty then, or safe, for that matter. Every drive-thru at a fast-food place was set up like a bank, with the bulletproof glass and the tiny stainless drawer. Even the post office and banks had bulletproof glass from the counter up to the ceiling. I had never seen that anywhere else, either before or after that.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.