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Case-Shiller Tiers: Only Low Tier Still Below Previous Peak

Posted on June 29, 2016July 7, 2016 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $314,170 (up 1.6%)
  • Mid Tier: $314,170 – $503,190
  • Hi Tier: > $503,190 (up 1.9%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2016.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

All three tiers increased once again in April.

Between March and April, the low tier increased 1.9 percent, the middle tier rose 2.2 percent, and the high tier was up 2.0 percent.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2016.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth in April was larger than it was in March for the high tier, but dropped slightly for the low and middle tiers. All three tiers are still seeing double-digit year-over-year price increases. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: +10.6 percent, Med: +11.3 percent, Hi: +10.3 percent.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday for the various Case-Shiller markets, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 7.1 percent off peak for the low tier, at peak for the middle tier, and 6.2 percent above the 2007 peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2016-06-28)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Price Gains Biggest In Nation Again
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June Stats: Inventory Edges Up Despite Record Sales

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