Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Inched Up In July

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to July data that was released this morning, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.6 percent June to July
Up 11.2 percent YOY.
Up 5.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.4 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 7.2 percent.

The Seattle area’s Case-Shiller home price index hit yet another new all-time high in July, and turned in stronger numbers than a year ago across the board. Again. This matches with the July data we’ve already seen from public records and NWMLS.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes was at #1 in March and April, dropped to #4 in May, moved up to #2 in June, and fell all the way to #12 in July.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

In July, there was still just one of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked metro areas that gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same as February through June):

  • Portland at +12.4%

The Northwest: Still literally the envy of other states.

Six cities hit new all-time highs in July: Boston, Seattle, Charlotte, Denver, Portland, and Dallas. San Francisco had been hitting new highs in recent months, but dropped slightly month-to-month in July.

Eighteen metro areas gained less than Seattle as of July: Denver, Dallas, Tampa, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Detroit, Charlotte, Atlanta, Phoenix, Minneapolis, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Washington, and New York.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through July.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 108 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 5.9 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for our monthly look at Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2016-09-27)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

95 comments:

  1. 1
    Screenname345 says:

    I normally think of Case Shiller reporting as being on the bearish side and they actually came out and said we are nowhere near a housing bubble. This was the most interesting thing about the latest report IMO.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2016/09/27/home-prices-approaching-record-highs-august-spcase-shiller/#3278001543ef

  2. 2

    Polls on Last Night’s Debate Remind Me of Seattle Real Estate

    No one asked the middle income voters….the rich elite just assumed they’re always right irrespective of polls….these polls document the opposite trends on who won the debate. Remember Brexit.

    Trust no ones’ verbal on issues that affect their pocketbook. Show me the voters’ poll results.

  3. 3
    No Body says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Hopefully voters will ask pro-leave Brits how their pocket books feel today before committing to the populism mistake.

  4. 4
    Matt the Engineer says:

    Off topic: I’d love the Tim’s take on this Times story. They’re using Limited Liability Corporation home ownership numbers and assuming they’re all Chinese here to buy our housing. What I think they’re ignoring is that LLC numbers have been mostly flat since 2008, and that LLC’s are commonly used in construction (while you’re tearing down a house and replacing with a townhome, for instance), and for tax and legal liability reasons (if you’re a landlord and you get sued, only your corporation collapses).

  5. 5
    Justme says:

    Whoa, SF is down 0.2% MOMO. But that can not happen here, because Amazon! Seattle is Prime!

  6. 6
    Matt says:

    RE: Justme @ 5

    If Seattle were as expensive as SF, I think very few people would say that the Seattle housing market wouldn’t be ripe for a dip–in fact, I don’t think bulls would be surprised if the Seattle market did go down slightly on a month-to-month blip now. Besides, a single 0.2% drop? Who cares? You spend a lot of time on here purporting to be the master of statistical analysis and reasoned argument, yet then cough up this flippant “gem.”

  7. 7
    greg says:

    That last chart is just jaw dropping. How anyone can think we are not in a massive asset bubble is just amazing.

    When rates start to move this is likely to get very ugly very fast. multi market sell offs, tiny tiny door. Think tiny door, hoard of sellers.

  8. 8
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 2:

    Polls on Last Night’s Debate Remind Me of Seattle Real Estate

    No one asked the middle income voters….the rich elite just assumed they’re always right irrespective of polls….these polls document the opposite trends on who won the debate. Remember Brexit.

    Trust no ones’ verbal on issues that affect their pocketbook. Show me the voters’ poll results.

    trump embarrassed himself!

  9. 9
    pfft says:

    By greg @ 7:

    That last chart is just jaw dropping. How anyone can think we are not in a massive asset bubble is just amazing.

    because you have to look at more factors other than just price. neither wages nor the housing sector has been a full participant yet in the recovery. believe it or not but the housing industry hasn’t fully recovered. right now income inequality is just starting to revert.

  10. 10
    David B. says:

    By pfft @ 8:

    trump embarrassed himself!

    Not possible. Trump is incapable of feeling embarrassment for his own actions.

  11. 11
    JWS says:

    RE: greg @ 7

    I agree that the chart looks scary and I can understand a bubble argument based on the situation.

    The more important question is what are you doing in preparation for this sell off? Are you hoarding cash to buy a home in Seattle when it bursts? Or are you selling a home now? Will this be a nationwide housing bubble or local? Are you shorting the stock market or a specific industry within, say homebuilders? Or banks, etc? Let’s hear what your money is doing as that is the more interesting discussion.

  12. 12
    pfft says:

    By JWS @ 11:

    RE: greg @ 7

    I agree that the chart looks scary and I can understand a bubble argument based on the situation.

    housing has gone up ZERO in nearly ten years(don’t forget about real home prices) and you’re sacred? even a 12 or 15 year chart isn’t looking so good. you talking about a CAGR that is not impressive for a bunch of time periods.

    if we used shadow stats to deflate home prices they would down 40%-60% STILL since the peak…

    “Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.”

    I don’t often criticize The Tim but when I do…it hurts. these charts should probably be adjusted for inflation. please use shadow stats too for the inflation truthers! that would be a fun ride. most of the assets they claim are in a bubble wouldn’t be if adjusted for shadow stats’ totally bogus inflation numbers.
    :)

  13. 13
    Sid says:

    By Justme @ 5:

    Whoa, SF is down 0.2% MOMO. …..

    That’s it. The party’s over in Seattle.
    /sarcasm

  14. 14
    Justme says:

    RE: Matt @ 6

    Actually I think my statement was counter-flippant sarcasm. It is the crowd that is always saying the equivalent of Amazon! Seattle is Prime! that is being flippant.

    >>I don’t think bulls would be surprised if the Seattle market did go down slightly on a month-to-month blip now.

    There you have it folks: If you can find some Seattle bulls that “would not be surprised” about a hypothetical downward price blip, that means that prices are not too high, and in particular there is no need to worry about that downward blip in SF. Alrighty then. Solid logic if I ever saw any.

    PS: I hope there are some of these “unsurprised bulls” also on SF. We’re counting on them to negate the SF blip, too. Or does being unsurprised work only in Special Seattle?

    Warning: This post is a combination of logic and sarcasm. This alert provided as a public service for the logically and sarcastically impaired.

  15. 15
    Doug says:

    RE: JWS @ 11 – In preparation for what sell off? Does anything about this chart signal a sell off?

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

    Stay long, my friends.

  16. 16
    Green-Horn says:

    Could our real estate market soon get so boring that nobody bothers to turn out here to discuss any more?

    A popping of the bubble is far from guaranteed. I predict at least another 20 – 35% more appreciation before we can say the market has overshot and has become ripe for correction or stagnation to let other factors (natural inflation & wages) catch up. The rest of the country is lagging way far behind and a sensible macroeconomic policy will let the west coast overheat a little so the rest of the economy can get a little momentum.

    Of course some economic cataclysm could change the schedule.

    Lots of folks unhappy with the bubble here.

    Elect Trump.
    He’d probably not mind if his immigration & trade policy pinch Amazon & Bezos. Also he’s no fan of the Fed’s dovish stance accommodative with the low interest rates.

    However I doubt any of us here have enough liquidity to swoop in when blood is running in the streets in a big way to buy up distressed assets when the next phase of economic armageddon happens.

  17. 17
    Blake says:

    RE: pfft @ 9
    Re “right now income inequality is just starting to revert.”

    You live in a dream world pfft! Yup… the middle class is going to come roaring back and all the trends of the last 20-30 years will “revert!” Good times just ahead!!
    http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/50614/GR_120513_Stone1.jpg

  18. 18
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 12 – And compare to real wages.

  19. 19
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 18 – Hahaha… Good one!

  20. 20
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: greg @ 7 – What on earth makes you think the average homeowner is going to rush for the exits? Buyers aren’t using silly things like NINJAs or ARMS with 0% down to buy 2nd and 3rd homes. Do you really think the average homeowner who’s had no problem paying the monthly but for years is just going to wake up one day, turn to their partner and say, “Gee, honey, if we sell now, we could take a giant loss AND have to find a new place to live. We should totally do it!”? Even if they have to relocate, most homeowners can at least break even on renting their place out. In order to have a “everybody head for the exits” scenario, you need massive job losses, and a drop in house prices here in Seattle isn’t going to give you massive unemployment.

  21. 21
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 9
    Re “right now income inequality is just starting to revert.”

    You live in a dream world pfft! Yup… the middle class is going to come roaring back and all the trends of the last 20-30 years will “revert!” Good times just ahead!!
    http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/50614/GR_120513_Stone1.jpg

    The Income Gap Began To Narrow Under Obama
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-income-gap-began-to-narrow-under-obama/

    sorry haters and losers, obamacare is closing the inequality gap.

  22. 22
    Saffy The Pook says:

    If you extrapolate the slope of the 1997-2003 trend, we’ve just now reverted to the mean had the bubble and bust of the naughts never happened. Nobody can predict the future but I’m pretty comfortable sitting on a long-term trend line.

  23. 23
    ess says:

    By Anonymous Coward @ 20:

    RE: greg @ 7 – What on earth makes you think the average homeowner is going to rush for the exits? Buyers aren’t using silly things like NINJAs or ARMS with 0% down to buy 2nd and 3rd homes. Do you really think the average homeowner who’s had no problem paying the monthly but for years is just going to wake up one day, turn to their partner and say, “Gee, honey, if we sell now, we could take a giant loss AND have to find a new place to live. We should totally do it!”? Even if they have to relocate, most homeowners can at least break even on renting their place out. In order to have a “everybody head for the exits” scenario, you need massive job losses, and a drop in house prices here in Seattle isn’t going to give you massive unemployment.

    You are correct. Not only have the most egregious lending practices been eliminated, but there are more home buyers paying either all cash, or putting a hefty amount down to purchase their houses in the Puget Sound area. Those folks have “skin in the game” and will not walk away if the market goes down 10 -20%.

    In addition, you are correct about renting out one’s house. During the height of the recent real estate fiasco, we were approached by a family that wanted to rent our rental house. They owned a house, but was too small for their family. They didn’t want to take a loss on their house. Thus they were going place their own house on the rental market while they rented a bigger house, anticipating that the market would recover. The market did recover, and if they kept to their plan, they made out fine.

    One must recall that we have gone through one of the worst housing markets as of the 1970s when Boeing was radically reducing their workforce when Boeing was THE only major state employer. But a vast majority of both home owners and rental property owners came through that unfortunate time intact. Yes, some rental property owners had to reduce rents for a few years, but if the property had been purchased with reasonable figures and expectations, then it was fine. No shortage of renters during the downturn, as potential home buyers became renters during that period. Yes we heard about foreclosures, but regardless of the market, there are always foreclosures for a variety of reasons. That number did go up, but it still represented a small percentage of owner occupied and rental properties in the Puget Sound area.

    A few days ago I attended a debate on ST3. The pro side argued that we need this expanded transit system as there will be almost one million more residents in the Puget Sound area in 25 years. Unspoken was another real issue over the next two decades will probably be a severe shortage of rental and owner occupied housing of all types, not too many people walking away from their houses because of some real estate decline in values.

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    I think we can all agree that that last chart would be an awesome tour de france stage.

  25. 25
    ess says:

    RE: Green-Horn @ 16

    A popping of the bubble is far from guaranteed. I predict at least another 20 – 35% more appreciation before we can say the market has overshot and has become ripe for correction or stagnation to let other factors (natural inflation & wages) catch up.

    —————————————————————————————————————————–

    To paraphrase an old saying -from your writings to my retirement plans!!

  26. 26
    ess says:

    RE: Green-Horn @ 16

    A popping of the bubble is far from guaranteed. I predict at least another 20 – 35% more appreciation before we can say the market has overshot and has become ripe for correction or stagnation to let other factors (natural inflation & wages) catch up.

    —————————————————————————————————————————–
    Was down in Arizona doing some hiking and looking at housing. That increase alone could buy a nice house in some retirement community down there! It is interesting to go into a beautiful new house in a nice development where the asking price is in the low 200Ks

  27. 27
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ess @ 24 – The arbitrage move, if you will, would be to use your winnings to buy in an area that costs less and whose rate of appreciation has been less than that of the Seattle area. I wonder about the impact of climate change on Arizona, as Seattle becomes the new San Diego.

  28. 28
    Sam Hunter says:

    By greg @ 7:

    That last chart is just jaw dropping. How anyone can think we are not in a massive asset bubble is just amazing.

    When rates start to move this is likely to get very ugly very fast. multi market sell offs, tiny tiny door. Think tiny door, hoard of sellers.

    Wow this quote right here just proves greg does not know what hes talking about. Just like his geriatric, balding lover Kary K. Krismer, these two old losers are always wrong wrong wrong! Greg was one of those people back in 2007 who would pull up the chart and say “That last chart is just jaw dropping how can anyone think this can go down!”

    I can’t tell if these grown old men are just the bottom 1% of the barrel or if they are just trolling.

    Use these limp dicked morons as a contrarian indicator, and you will be rich beyond your wildest dreams.

  29. 29
    Andrew says:

    I’m not an economist, just observing the market as a layman without the full knowledge of the grand scheme. To me the only way this “bubble” can burst is if Seattle becomes undesired place to live. But then again under such premise, it shouldn’t be called bubble to begin with.

  30. 30
    Justme says:

    RE: Andrew @ 27 – In other words, Seattle is Prime! It just is. Never mind anything else. And the citizens of Seattle are prime, too. How dares anyone question the mighty indebtedness of Seattleites!

  31. 31
    Kit says:

    RE: JWS @ 11

    Since no one really answered you with specifics on what they are doing, my SO and I are going to rent till the next major adjustment mostly because the Price-to-Rent ratio is ~35. We earn more in the <10 year term renting our apartment and potentially a house if needed.

    We have been keeping an eye on houses for months, got pre-approval and an agent, and been going religiously to ~4 open houses/weekend, but we have not bothered with an offer yet. A lot the millennial market might be starting to feel the same. Tech opportunities are on the rise outside of Seattle within and outside of our companies including working remotely part to full time. While we had every intention of living in Seattle the rest of our lives, there is nothing that truly tethers us here as we are transplants: a lot of loved are in other cities. We do have new friends and circles here, but kids and school circles can take that over anyway.

    So in 5 years, if we still feel like we are in crazy competition in terms of getting housing, good childcare, and so forth, renting gives us the flexibility of being able to move without major hassle and with more expendable cash. There might be miraculous and sustained housing increases that outdo the market (including costs of buying/selling, etc.) if you buy in the right area, but we do not really need to own a house yet and we do not feel comfortable paying these prices and dealing with bidding wars.

    I am sure there are miniscule ways to optimize every detail for cases of "if this and then this and if that and that", but no one really knows what will happen. Renting until the price-to-rent ratio is lower and our liquid assets are up just seems like the best option. After all, people on average move every 11-13 years even if they had no intention to move again.

    I'm sure a lot of you feel like "good riddance", but I've been tired of all the hogwash comments lately.

  32. 32
    district says:

    By Justme @ 30:

    RE: Andrew @ 27 – In other words, Seattle is Prime! It just is. Never mind anything else. And the citizens of Seattle are prime, too. How dares anyone question the mighty indebtedness of Seattleites!

    Justme, you write as if the bear case were so obvious that only the blindest of the greedy could think otherwise. But your case stands almost exclusively on one two factors, which is that values are up and that money is cheap.

    But the higher values seemed caused by market forces rather than speculation and cheap money isn’t going to go away anytime soon (although it will gradually get a little less cheap). My point is that even if you are correct, your view is far from obvious. It’s not such an open and shut case that anyone who denies it is irrational.

    This might change in the future. There have been a slew of articles about foreign investment coming to Seattle in the wake of Vancouver’s 15% excise tax on foreign buyers. Apparently, we’re about to get a huge influx of Chinese buyers? That might nudge us away from fundamentals and into speculation / bubble territory if the wave is big enough. But by all accounts, there is no evidence that it’s happened yet.

  33. 33
    ess says:

    By Blurtman @ 27:

    RE: ess @ 24 – The arbitrage move, if you will, would be to use your winnings to buy in an area that costs less and whose rate of appreciation has been less than that of the Seattle area. I wonder about the impact of climate change on Arizona, as Seattle becomes the new San Diego.

    Understandable why people from the Bay area or LA with significant real estate equity relocate in the Puget Sound area. Often they can purchase the same size and quality housing for one third to one half the price that they can sell in those areas. Having one’s house totally paid for, with hundreds of thousands of dollars left over in investments is a life changer for many.

  34. 34
    Justme says:

    RE: district @ 31

    >>Justme, you write as if the bear case were so obvious that only the blindest of the greedy could think otherwise

    No, what I wrote was a slight parody of the bubbler-case, as presented by hordes of bubblers and bubble-fans on this site. But your words about the blindest of the blind have a certain ring to it, I’ll give you that.

    >>But the higher values seemed caused by market forces rather than speculation and cheap money

    Seemed, you say?? You actually believe that Seattle now _exceeding_ the previous bubble peak prices is caused by something else than ZIRP and QE?

    And are speculation and cheap money not market forces? Cheap money is an artificial and manipulated market force, but nevertheless a market force.

    Look, we discuss this every week and every month, so unless you have some new arguments, you can can just leave it at “what the other bubblers said earlier”. Meanwhile I reserve the right to write parodies.

  35. 35
    JR says:

    RE: Justme @ 34 – Seattle median household income went up nearly $10k between 2014 and 2015, more than any other major city (by quite a bit). That’s not a market force? That doesn’t make Seattle “special”? I’m not saying we’re immune to the national economy, or that there aren’t plenty of leginimate criticisms of FED policy, but these are real things you just ignore because it isn’t relevant to your personal hobbyhorse. It’s getting exhausting coming back to this site these days and seeing almost nothing but rantings about QE and ZIRP over and over, mixed with condescending sarcasm and the occasional political rant.

  36. 36
    Blake says:

    By Andrew @ 29:

    To me the only way this “bubble” can burst is if Seattle becomes undesired place to live. .

    Yup… luckily Seattle’s economy is not attached the US or world economy at all, so if there is a significant economic downturn WE ARE IMMUNE!!! It think that roughly 90% of Boeing, Amazon and Microshaft’s sales are instate, no??

    Besides… economic downturns are things of the past!

  37. 37
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: Blake @ 36 – You do realize you’re arguing that we’re in a jobs and income bubble, not a housing bubble right? Aka, we don’t get a crash in housing until we get a crash in something else….

  38. 38
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Kit @ 31:

    RE: JWS @ 11

    We have been keeping an eye on houses for months, got pre-approval and an agent, and been going religiously to ~4 open houses/weekend, but we have not bothered with an offer yet… We do have new friends and circles here, but kids and school circles can take that over anyway…

    So in 5 years…

    This right here is why I think the actual bubble is going to start 7-10 years from now. See, we’ve just imported large numbers of people in their mid-20’s into a robust job market paying upper-middle class wages. And we’re housing them in a whole bunch of 1&2 bedroom apartments which we can’t build fast enough. In 7-10 years, they’re going to be starting families and looking for 3+ bedrooms which we’re not building (and which we, in fact, have no plan to build…)

  39. 39
    Blake says:

    By pfft @ 21:

    The Income Gap Began To Narrow Under Obama
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-income-gap-began-to-narrow-under-obama/

    sorry haters and losers, obamacare is closing the inequality gap.

    From that link you posted pfft:
    “According to the Congressional Budget Office, the share of income going to the top 1 percent increased from 7.4 percent in 1979 to 16.7 percent in 2007, before Obama took office;”

    I love this!!!! … why doesn’t 538 mention what the top 1% share of income did UNDER OBAMA? The subject of their firckin’ story?? They stop at 2007…?
    Well, the top 1% share has RISEN from 16.7% (under Bush!) to over 22% last year!!
    http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/u-s-top-one-percent-of-income-earners-hit-new-high-in-2015-amid-strong-economic-growth/
    “The share of income going to the top 1 percent of families—those earning on average about $1.4 million a year—increased to 22.0 percent in 2015 from 21.4 percent in 2014. Income inequality in the United States persists at extremely high levels, particularly at the very top of the income ladder.”

    From that same link you posted:
    “It’s too soon to say whether the recent progress on inequality represents a long-term shift or a temporary blip. And even if the gains are real, they have made at best a modest dent in the long-term rise in inequality.”

    Keep digging pfft… keep digging…

  40. 40
    Blake says:

    By Anonymous Coward @ 37:

    RE: Blake @ 36 – You do realize you’re arguing that we’re in a jobs and income bubble, not a housing bubble right? Aka, we don’t get a crash in housing until we get a crash in something else….

    Yup… you got it… at least most of it. It’s both!
    We’re at the end of a weird business cycle in which most Americans have experienced little to no increase in prosperity, but easy money has juiced markets in almost every asset class. It is different than 2007, but not a lot. History doesn’t exactly repeat… but it rhymes!

  41. 41
    Kit says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @38

    Could be, but it is another complicated thing to predict. Amazon looks like it reached MS levels in 2013 and is growing faster than ever, but it does have high turnover . That means they may not be here or even interested in a house in the long term.

    Someone else made an astute comment in these last couple of posts that people may not be factoring in high child care costs, so I think there is a chance of a backlash there too. Perhaps the ones who do go settle will have to cut back and/or will realize they have to factor is 2,200/mo per child. For the sake of chaos, in favor of your theory,, FB and Google have been picking up the ex-Amazoninans in Seattle and keeping a subset of teams here.

    Either way, 5-7 years is still a long time to predict. In fear of the credit bubble, Chinese nationals may just buy everything up by then…or lose it all… who ducking knows. That’s why I’m interested in what people are doing now based on how they feel because I think that will affect things in the 1-2 year realm.

    Side note, I really hope Tim gets some good data out on price-to-rent cause he traditionally did his affordability posts in August/Sept before.

  42. 42
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 36:

    By Andrew @ 29:

    To me the only way this “bubble” can burst is if Seattle becomes undesired place to live. .

    Yup… luckily Seattle’s economy is not attached the US or world economy at all, so if there is a significant economic downturn WE ARE IMMUNE!!!

    must have gotten a flu shot.

  43. 43
    pfft says:

    By Blake @ 39:

    By pfft @ 21:

    The Income Gap Began To Narrow Under Obama
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-income-gap-began-to-narrow-under-obama/

    sorry haters and losers, obamacare is closing the inequality gap.

    From that link you posted pfft:
    “According to the Congressional Budget Office, the share of income going to the top 1 percent increased from 7.4 percent in 1979 to 16.7 percent in 2007, before Obama took office;”

    I love this!!!! … why doesn’t 538 mention what the top 1% share of income did UNDER OBAMA? The subject of their firckin’ story?? They stop at 2007…?
    Well, the top 1% share has RISEN from 16.7% (under Bush!) to over 22% last year!!
    http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/u-s-top-one-percent-of-income-earners-hit-new-high-in-2015-amid-strong-economic-growth/
    “The share of income going to the top 1 percent of families—those earning on average about $1.4 million a year—increased to 22.0 percent in 2015 from 21.4 percent in 2014. Income inequality in the United States persists at extremely high levels, particularly at the very top of the income ladder.”

    From that same link you posted:
    “It’s too soon to say whether the recent progress on inequality represents a long-term shift or a temporary blip. And even if the gains are real, they have made at best a modest dent in the long-term rise in inequality.”

    Keep digging pfft… keep digging…

    we all know why it happened. we had the bush great recession/financial panic. if you see almost all of obama’s actions, the stimulus, obamacare and the tax raise helped decrease inequality. thanks to obamacare there is much less of a chance you will lose your house. that is how most people build their nest egg. obama got handed an economy that was crashing and he helped turn it around with no help from republicans. they were basically actively working against him and the economy. he can’t get much of what would help passed. a higher minimum wage would do great for inequality but it won’t pass because of republicans.

    obama gave millions health care and created 10 million jobs. he hasn’t done anything for for inequality? nobody is buying what you’re selling. it’s like you totally forgot there was a bush great recession/financial crisis.

    we remember though!

  44. 44
    Justme says:

    RE: JR @ 35

    >>RE: Justme @ 34 – Seattle median household income went up nearly $10k between 2014 and 2015, more than any other major city (by quite a bit).

    This has been discussed at length on other websites recently. It appears that the main reason is more people with jobs per household. One could read this as “millenials moving back into their parents basement”. Does not sound like good news to me. But hey, Seattle is Special.

    >>It’s getting exhausting coming back to this site these days and seeing almost nothing but rantings about QE and ZIRP over and over, mixed with condescending sarcasm and the occasional political rant.

    The truth can be exhausting.

  45. 45
    boater says:

    Child care costs can be temporary. They are real but for most kids they are for about five years and then they drop significantly. School functions as a reasonable daycare. If you feel comfortable using the public schools then you see a significant childcare cost drop. Traditionally Seattle school district schools have not been somewhere the upper middle class has wanted their kids. That’s part of the reason the Eastside is favored by workers with kids. The public schools on the Eastside are generally good.

    I am a little amazed that we’ve reached a point where people are willing to pay so much to reduce their commute time and pay for private school and pay all of the taxes in Seattle. It suggests that buyers have a lot of excess money or fewer to no children or very young children and haven’t looked ahead at school costs. Maybe we’re seeing a shift of upper income workers sending their kids to public schools.

  46. 46
    pfft says:

    By Justme @ 43:

    RE: JR @ 35

    >>RE: Justme @ 34 – Seattle median household income went up nearly $10k between 2014 and 2015, more than any other major city (by quite a bit).

    This has been discussed at length on other websites recently. It appears that the main reason is more people with jobs per household. One could read this as “millenials moving back into their parents basement”. Does not sound like good news to me. But hey, Seattle is Special.

    >>It’s getting exhausting coming back to this site these days and seeing almost nothing but rantings about QE and ZIRP over and over, mixed with condescending sarcasm and the occasional political rant.

    The truth can be exhausting.

    ZIRP and QE have been priced in. right now they don’t mean much for asset values. they are known knowns. you may think that you are so zero hedge for repeating them but they don’t make you smart. it just means you read the news. congrats but the people who set prices(hedge funds and etc) know more about it than you do. what I really care about is what do you know that they don’t. probably nothing.

  47. 47
    Weasel says:

    By Andrew @ 29:

    I’m not an economist, just observing the market as a layman without the full knowledge of the grand scheme. To me the only way this “bubble” can burst is if Seattle becomes undesired place to live. But then again under such premise, it shouldn’t be called bubble to begin with.

    Pretty much agree, this isn’t a bubble, its more a correction back to normal after the last one which was built on dodgy loans given to people that couldn’t afford them.

    If we smooth out the last bubble and look for an average, how does the current house price compare with the general average appreciation over the longer term? Prices in Pierce County are nowhere near the peak of 2007 yet.

    More likely the people calling this a bubble are hoping for a repeat of the last one so they can a) say told you so, and b) swoop in and buy that Seattle dream home at a rock bottom price because they missed out on the trendy neighborhood last time around by leaving it too late :-)

    I don’t think this is the bubble you’re looking for, the banking industry isn’t about to implode again. Tech is a fairly new thing, its risen, crashed and burned, and risen again from the ashes a few times now, some hard lessons have been learned.

  48. 48
    S-Crow says:

    If you are on the fence about our local real estate market continuing it’s upward price trajectory for a few more years (and stock market), please go to the following Sept. 14th presentation from Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Mgmt. I took my dog on the Centennial Trail in Snohomish and thought about the presentation the entire time particularly the comment about the stock market this past August Was One of Lowest Realized Volatility Months, EVER. Usually precedes problems. And then there’s the continued quarterly reduction of corp. earnings. So there’s that and the comment that REIT’s are in a super bubble.

    https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1115281

    You have to provide your email but it is worthwhile to listen to the very end (45 min). Grab a cup of coffee. The slides are superb in reflecting both historical and current events including the Fed intervention.

  49. 49
    Eastsider says:

    My 2 cents –

    You might want to consider that Deutsche Bank may blow up, and that central banks have no more effective tool to deal with a default of this TBTF bank. Just sayin’

  50. 50
    David B. says:

    RE: boater @ 44 – From what I’ve heard from parents with kids is that Seattle schools aren’t all bad. In fact, many of them are actually quite good. There’s some bad ones that drag the overall district averages down. What it boils down to is that if you can get your kid in a good school, in-city homes work just fine.

  51. 51
    Blake says:

    By Eastsider @ 48:

    My 2 cents –

    You might want to consider that Deutsche Bank may blow up, and that central banks have no more effective tool to deal with a default of this TBTF bank. Just sayin’

    Deutsche Bank dropped another 6.7% today and is at all time lows…. and some large hedge funds started pulling their money out today:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/some-deutsche-bank-clients-said-to-reduce-collateral-on-trades
    “…the hedge funds’ move highlights concern among some counterparties about doing business with Europe’s largest investment bank. ”

    And there is no way Frau Merkel can help DB…
    “Chief Executive Officer John Cryan told Bild newspaper this week that government aid was “out of the question.” Any taxpayer-funded solution for the bank’s troubles would be Merkel’s downfall, according to the leader of Germany’s biggest opposition party.”

    Just saying…

  52. 52
    Blurtman says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 47
    NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP. NIRP.

    AND

    The idea of expanding into areas like equities might be “good thing to think about,” yet is not “something we need now,” Yellen said, noting that (for now) The Fed is more restricted in which assets it can purchase than other central banks.

    Equities. Why not homes?

  53. 53
    Blake says:

    Hmmm… China’s richest man isn’t afraid the say the words “real estate bubble”…
    Chinese real estate is “the biggest bubble in history”
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/investing/china-wang-jianlin-real-estate-bubble

    ……and like many Chinese he is investing heavily overseas… in the US.

  54. 54
    Eric with a "c" says:

    By Justme @ 14:

    RE: Matt @ 6

    Actually I think my statement was counter-flippant sarcasm. It is the crowd that is always saying the equivalent of Amazon! Seattle is Prime! that is being flippant.

    >>I don’t think bulls would be surprised if the Seattle market did go down slightly on a month-to-month blip now.

    There you have it folks: If you can find some Seattle bulls that “would not be surprised” about a hypothetical downward price blip, that means that prices are not too high, and in particular there is no need to worry about that downward blip in SF. Alrighty then. Solid logic if I ever saw any.

    PS: I hope there are some of these “unsurprised bulls” also on SF. We’re counting on them to negate the SF blip, too. Or does being unsurprised work only in Special Seattle?

    Warning: This post is a combination of logic and sarcasm. This alert provided as a public service for the logically and sarcastically impaired.

    Justme, I was curious what measurable predictions you have made on SeattleBubble, and I couldn’t find any in the archives. I certainly might have missed them. Please point us all toward an archived prediction if it’s there. The reason I bring this up is that I think the poster who employs sarcasm and snark carries the burden of measurable proof for her/his opinions. I agree with your bearish outlook at this point. If you’re going to ridicule other posters, however, then you really ought to offer some concrete, measurable predictions that we can all look back on in the future. I think Erik is crazy, but no one can deny his boldness in predicting 2024-26 for the next bust. Are you willing to predict when QE and ZIRP will cause a new downturn? If not, then maybe it’s time to tone down the sarcasm.

  55. 55
    Matt says:

    RE: boater @ 44

    Seattle is becoming transplant central. Ask a lot of the new citizens–considering where many have come from–what they think about taxes in Seattle and it won’t be so surprising why they are willing to pay to live in Seattle. I grew up in a shitty suburb in New York (not that close to NYC) and my parents pay $15K/yr in property taxes on a $600K house–I pay $4K on an equivalently valued albeit smaller home. And that’s on top of state income tax, absurd utilities, and a sales tax nearly equal to ours! I think I speak for most of the coastal American transplants when I say: Seattle is still cheap AF!

  56. 56
    Sam Hunter says:

    RE: Kit @ 31

    Okay no offence but open your eyes… the price to rent ratio is not really 35…

    Seattle, Washington 35.09 $421,080
    https://smartasset.com/mortgage/price-to-rent-ratio-in-us-cities

    This means a $421,080 house rents for $1,000

    Go on craigslist and find me 3 places where a $421,080 house/$1,000 rent ratio exists… heres a hint… it doesn’t exist… don’t believe everything you read retard.

  57. 57
    greg says:

    RE: JWS @ 11

    ref: what am i doing about it…..

    I am not a fan of coins flips. so shorting or selling a primary res is not in the cards for me.

    What i have done is i have opted not to buy anything new in this region, well not unless a real steal shows up,
    We have increased our cash /liquid position to the highest in has been in many years. We started that this spring and we will sell a lot more into any big rallies. We were over weight stocks for the last 6-8 years.
    We are doing some buying trips, did one this summer (came up empty) and i am heading off next month to try a place where i have better connections. It would also give us a currency play as a bonus. That trip is likely to end with me whining about tax rules and rates…

    From looking around i have found most of the more desirable areas have just blown up.

  58. 58
    redmondjp says:

    It’s time for another quote from Charles A. Lindbergh Sr. (congressman and father of the famous aviator), from his 1921 book, ‘The Economic Pinch’:

    “The strangest of all, in this world’s confusion, is the fact that the profiteers with all their business shrewdness are forging ever on in their mad swoop to grab all the world’s wealth – stranger still that their experts, of which they have thousands, do not understand that their clients are now driving to destruction with terrific speed. So far as surface appearances go there is but one hope for them – not that they will save themselves – but that the people will take action to save the people from the impending peril of the super-wealthy gone wealth crazy.”

    Download the entire book and read it, as it is proves that nothing has changed over the last century. If you read this book, you will understand the economic predicament that we are in.

    It even describes our current presidential election season quite well on page 15.

    https://archive.org/details/nkooan_yahoo_Lind

  59. 59
    Go Hawks! says:

    The Bubble crowd forgets the relationship between home prices and rates. I know I know, rates could/will rise someday, but treasury yields have been falling for 30 years. On a monthly payment basis we are nowhere near the 2006/7 peak plus the stock market is significantly higher, especially for local companies.

    We are so quick to try and fight the previous war. When this market does slowdown/correct it won’t look like last time. The Big Short II wannabes won’t get the last laugh. They had their chance in 2006/7 and only a few capitalized.

  60. 60
    ess says:

    RE: Matt @ 55
    Seattle is becoming transplant central. Ask a lot of the new citizens–considering where many have come from–what they think about taxes in Seattle and it won’t be so surprising why they are willing to pay to live in Seattle. I grew up in a chocolatey suburb in New York (not that close to NYC) and my parents pay $15K/yr in property taxes on a $600K house–I pay $4K on an equivalently valued albeit smaller home. And that’s on top of state income tax, absurd utilities, and a sales tax nearly equal to ours! I think I speak for most of the coastal American transplants when I say: Seattle is still cheap AF!

    ——————————————————————————————————————————-

    You are correct Matt. Sometimes a bit of perspective past one’s own local situation is imperative to understand what is actually transpiring in the world. I have a friends in Connecticut and New Jersey that complain at length about their tax situation. And NY and NYC – even worse. NYC has both state and city income tax for their residents, while still paying a healthy sales tax on purchases.

    Most of the expenses of living both in the Northeast and California are much higher than Seattle, both in terms of housing as well as taxes. And the populations of those two areas are approximately one fifth of the US population. They would love both Seattle housing prices and no state or city income tax,

    Thus there are millions of Americans who would find both the housing and the tax arrangements in the Puget Sound area to be rather attractive. Add the foreign market to the mix, and there are still many who can buy a house in the Puget Sound area and still have a healthy amount of assets after their purchase.

  61. 61
    Kit says:

    RE: Sam Hunter @56

    Yeah, it is probably more like 28. Still too high for me.

    Also, even if you start with “no offense”, if you end with calling me a “retard”, then you are still rude.

  62. 62
    Sam Hunter says:

    RE: Kit @ 61

    I will keep your feelings in mind next time you make a retarded claim, retard.

  63. 63
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Sam Hunter @ 62 – Rather than call people retards, maybe you should perform a little critical reasoning.

    Perhaps the article was referring not to Seattle city limits, but the greater Seattle CSA or MSA.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

    Case-Shiller uses similar, if not the same designations. It includes many lower-priced cities. I will now await my ‘retard’ designation.

  64. 64
    Blurtman says:

    By ess @ 60:

    RE: Matt @ 55
    Sometimes a bit of perspective past one’s own local situation is imperative to understand what is actually transpiring in the world. I have a friends in Connecticut and New Jersey that complain at length about their tax situation. And NY and NYC – even worse. NYC has both state and city income tax for their residents, while still paying a healthy sales tax on purchases.

    Most of the expenses of living both in the Northeast and California are much higher than Seattle, both in terms of housing as well as taxes. And the populations of those two areas are approximately one fifth of the US population. They would love both Seattle housing prices and no state or city income tax,

    Build that wall!

  65. 65
    ess says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 64

    Build that wall!

    —————————————————————————————

    The Lesser Seattle folks have been saying that for years, but their efforts are not paying off. But I find what is going on especially back east, and the sad tales people from that area have to tell instructive.

    For example – Washington State is one of the few states in the US without a state income tax. Proponents of a state income tax argue that implementing one in Washington state will provide both property tax and sales tax relief, and that it is more equitable for the poor. But in reality, it never works out that way. As many back east will tell (complain) to us, a state income tax does nothing to alleviate both sales taxes and high property taxes. There are just too many “needs” that are identified by government, and voted on by the electorate at all levels (as we have witnessed in this state) to possibly give a normal taxpayer any relief when tax “reform” is implemented. It is no wonder that many from other areas look upon Puget Sound and Washington state with great admiration.

  66. 66
    greg says:

    RE: ess @ 65

    we really need to stop allowing the public to vote on how our gov spends the money.

    This way the gov does not get to claim “we asked for it” , “we voted for it”.

    Instead make them responsible for their actions.

    ie if you dont like how the 405 was handled then maybe vote against Inslee…. he loses his job and the next guy thinks twice before allowing junk like that to happen.

    We could even have a 25 dollar gift voucher for everyone who votes, each time they vote. This way the public would send in their votes every time stopping local cities from pushing through spending in the middle of the summer when nobody votes…

  67. 67
    ess says:

    By greg @ 66:

    RE: ess @ 65

    we really need to stop allowing the public to vote on how our gov spends the money.

    This way the gov does not get to claim “we asked for it” , “we voted for it”.

    Instead make them responsible for their actions.

    ie if you dont like how the 405 was handled then maybe vote against Inslee…. he loses his job and the next guy thinks twice before allowing junk like that to happen.

    We could even have a 25 dollar gift voucher for everyone who votes, each time they vote. This way the public would send in their votes every time stopping local cities from pushing through spending in the middle of the summer when nobody votes…

    Greg – Points well taken. I would add the following:

    – back east, most states don’t have the initiative system, thus all those high taxes are imposed by the governmental process without any direct vote of the people. Thus governments on all levels need to be accountable as to how much money they spend on behalf of taxpayers. Thus I am not too trusting of government officials either. Personally I like the initiative process – it at least gives the voting public a chance to reject the most egregious programs.

    -perhaps some more education is required. Most initiatives that are passed by popular vote are paid by raising property taxes. Many renters do not make the connection between higher real estate taxes that they vote on, and their rent increasing. If the proposed program to be paid for by increased property taxes are for kittens or children – everyone will vote for it because it is not only a need, but the voter can be a generous, noble person without having to pay a personal cost for the newly proposed program. If the factor that higher property taxes will result increased rents was hammered home over and over again, perhaps every proposal that comes along related to property taxes would not pass, or at least there would be some sort of serious discussion about costs. I only point out the infamous Seattle coffee tax voted down a few years ago that was going to pay for a truly noble “need” (daycare). A small tax paid directly by very progressive Seattle taxpayers was viewed totally differently and overwhelmingly rejected. Don’t think activists and government officials didn’t learn from that fiasco.

    And Greg, you have certainly hit on something important – the summer votes for all sorts of bonding issues. As far as I am concerned, any scheduled summer vote is for some expense or program that doesn’t have a great deal of support outside of a narrow constituency, and summer is used as a voting time when no one is looking. Problem is – they are correct – no one is looking. I have seen that cute little trick implemented over and over again in one jurisdiction where I own property and have been politically active.

    I look upon with great interest the ST3 vote and how that will go. Not only does that impact real estate taxes, but other more “personal” taxes that may create a backlash. This isn’t some little city wide vote raising property taxes a few dollars – ST3 is a really big deal.

  68. 68
    ess says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-most-unaffordable-place-to-live-in-america-is-2016-06-23

    An interesting article for two reasons

    1. Seattle is not amongst the top ten unaffordable places. We are still a bargain!! ( Well – to some people).

    2. Brooklyn, which is the number one unaffordable place to live these days in the entire US had an increase in real estate sales. Thus there is not an iron clad link between average salaries and increased or decreased sales. It is a question if those who are buying can afford to buy, and if they wish to buy in a particular community – not the average salaries of the community. It is two separate issues, and I think we are seeing that issue played out in both Seattle and the Eastside.

  69. 69
    Blurtman says:

    RE: ess @ 65 – I grew up back east and knew I had get out. So many cities suffer from benign neglect and depressing urban decay. Too many are totally disassociated from nature. Seattle is newer and growing and may we always have a respect for and link to nature.

  70. 70
    pfft says:

    By ess @ 65:

    RE: Blurtman @ 64

    Build that wall!

    —————————————————————————————

    The Lesser Seattle folks have been saying that for years, but their efforts are not paying off. But I find what is going on especially back east, and the sad tales people from that area have to tell instructive.

    For example – Washington State is one of the few states in the US without a state income tax. Proponents of a state income tax argue that implementing one in Washington state will provide both property tax and sales tax relief, and that it is more equitable for the poor. But in reality, it never works out that way. As many back east will tell (complain) to us, a state income tax does nothing to alleviate both sales taxes and high property taxes. There are just too many “needs” that are identified by government, and voted on by the electorate at all levels (as we have witnessed in this state) to possibly give a normal taxpayer any relief when tax “reform” is implemented. It is no wonder that many from other areas look upon Puget Sound and Washington state with great admiration.

    you realize that one of the favorite pass times of northeasterners is to endlessly complain about every little thing and drone on and on. they think Seattle is somewhere they would never want to live because it’s boring. To some if it’s not Miami, LA or maybe Chicago there is nothing going on.

    think donald trump. imagine drumpf moving to Seattle.

  71. 71
    pfft says:

    By ess @ 67:

    By greg @ 66:

    RE: ess @ 65

    we really need to stop allowing the public to vote on how our gov spends the money.

    This way the gov does not get to claim “we asked for it” , “we voted for it”.

    Instead make them responsible for their actions.

    ie if you dont like how the 405 was handled then maybe vote against Inslee…. he loses his job and the next guy thinks twice before allowing junk like that to happen.

    We could even have a 25 dollar gift voucher for everyone who votes, each time they vote. This way the public would send in their votes every time stopping local cities from pushing through spending in the middle of the summer when nobody votes…

    Greg – Points well taken. I would add the following:

    – back east, most states don’t have the initiative system, thus all those high taxes are imposed by the governmental process without any direct vote of the people. Thus governments on all levels need to be accountable as to how much money they spend on behalf of taxpayers. Thus I am not too trusting of government officials either. Personally I like the initiative process – it at least gives the voting public a chance to reject the most egregious programs.

    are you serious? there are all kinds of bonds and the like to vote on. people directly elect their leaders. if they don’t like the job their rep is doing they can vote them out.

  72. 72
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 69:

    RE: ess @ 65 – I grew up back east and knew I had get out. So many cities suffer from benign neglect and depressing urban decay. Too many are totally disassociated from nature. Seattle is newer and growing and may we always have a respect for and link to nature.

    dude, it’s not the 70s anymore…just about every city is going green and planting trees.

  73. 73
    Kit says:

    RE: Sam Hunter @ 62

    Actually, I went back because my calculations were bothering me and found this:
    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2015/08/13/home-price-to-rent-ratio-still-below-bubble-territory/

    So… despite not really having individual points that back it up cause I don’t have time for that, 35 is more reasonable when we look at a value of 32 a year ago and the lower pace of the rental market lately.
    Rents down last month
    Rents up 4% this month and 8.4% total YOY

    RE: wreckingbull @ 63

    That might be the logic as why the ratio is higher. I’m not the brightest at this though.

  74. 74
    sleepless says:

    By pfft @ 21:

    By Blake @ 17:

    RE: pfft @ 9
    Re “right now income inequality is just starting to revert.”

    You live in a dream world pfft! Yup… the middle class is going to come roaring back and all the trends of the last 20-30 years will “revert!” Good times just ahead!!
    http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/50614/GR_120513_Stone1.jpg

    The Income Gap Began To Narrow Under Obama
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-income-gap-began-to-narrow-under-obama/

    sorry haters and losers, obamacare is closing the inequality gap.

    Income inequality is the highest since the Great Depression http://journalistsresource.org/studies/economics/inequality/income-inequality-research-distribution-class

    Why has income inequality risen so sharply under a Progressive President, Barack Obama?
    https://www.quora.com/Why-has-income-inequality-risen-so-sharply-under-a-Progressive-President-Barack-Obama

    Sorry liberals, but obama don’t care make people poorer. Health Insurance Premiums Have Continued To Rise Faster Than Worker Wages Under Obamacare
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/09/27/health-insurance-premiums-have-continued-to-rise-faster-than-worker-wages-under-obamacare/#7b2f8f863606

    ObamaCare premiums expected to rise sharply amid insurer losses
    http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/277347-obamacare-premiums-expected-to-rise-sharply-amid-insurer-losses

    Liberals are so full of sh!t :) :) :)

  75. 75
    jon says:

    The link between the average income and the average house price was always tenuous, but now it is gone. In 9 out of the 11 major metro areas, there are more renters than owners. If one over-simplifies and says that all renters are lower income than homeowners, then the average income person is not in the house buying market at all. http://www.wsj.com/articles/renters-are-majority-in-big-u-s-cities-1423432009

    (And Detroit is going green in the sense of reverting back to wilderness.)

  76. 76
    ess says:

    Re Pfft @71

    are you serious? there are all kinds of bonds and the like to vote on. people directly elect their leaders. if they don’t like the job their rep is doing they can vote them out.

    —————————————————————————————————————–

    I can assure you having been involved in small town politics for numerous years, that most people have no idea who their local representatives and city council officials are, and could care less. In many towns, the percentage of those voting for local elected officials is usually less than 50% of those eligible to vote, and those local officials can generate a great deal of taxes directly and indirectly.

    Furthermore, as a long term landlord, I can also assure you that the interest amongst renters is even less as to knowledge of local representatives and local taxing and bond issues. Renters simply don’t believe that they have any direct concern as they are renting only for a few years until they move on to another community. Which is most unfortunate for them, because not only are tenants paying most if not all of the real estate taxes on most rental property through their rents, but often those real estate taxes are for improvements that will appear in the community long after the tenant has vacated the premises and area. Thus they should be paying more attention as they often don’t get the benefits of the bonding issues and increased tax votes, only the increased taxes via increased rents.

    There is a reason why most of those bond issues are placed on the summer ballot rather than the November ballot. If there was almost unanimous support for a certain bond issue or tax increase, there would be no need to place it on the ballot during summer, when there is minimal interest in local elections and voting, as people are more concerned about vacations and keeping their school age kids occupied and out of mischief. If popular accompanied with great support, those bond and tax issues would be placed on the November ballots so that politicians could be basking and taking credit for passing creative, progressive legislation. But the reality is that often they are quietly sweating out getting enough votes for a simple or super majority, because politicians understand how unpopular all these tax and bond proposals are if people were actually paying attention.

  77. 77
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 72 – When you are old enough to travel, drive around the area near EWR. You can see videos of the area where the chicken shack bomber lived. Or watch footage on the telly of Baltimore, MD the next time there is a protest. Ever been to Camden, NJ? Just across the Mississippi river from St. Louis – East St. Louis? Detroit, MI? Many of these cities are so bad, the only solution is razing them. NYC – outdated and dirty subway system. When the world is running down, you make the best of what is still around. Next stop, Mars. ;>)

  78. 78
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 75:

    RE: pfft @ 72 – When you are old enough to travel, drive around the area near EWR. You can see videos of the area where the chicken shack bomber lived. Or watch footage on the telly of Baltimore, MD the next time there is a protest. Ever been to Camden, NJ? Just across the Mississippi river from St. Louis – East St. Louis? Detroit, MI? Many of these cities are so bad, the only solution is razing them. NYC – outdated and dirty subway system. When the world is running down, you make the best of what is still around. Next stop, Mars. ;>)

    even in the worst areas there are nice places. you are just taking the stereotypical view of many of these cities. Places like NYC are very expensive. Have you ever been to Queens? I have, it’s nicer than you think and visiting change my mind. there are nice neighborhoods. same thing with new orleans, which does have a major crime problem. get out more…you’d figure out that life is complicated. don’t give in to stereotypes!
    :)

  79. 79
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 76 – I like New Orleans. Great restaurants and music. I have traveled to the areas cited. They can certainly be much, much better. Observations are not stereotypes. Of course there are nice areas in NYC. Same in Chicago. Possibly even Aleppo.

  80. 80
    Mikal says:

    It’s the same people saying real estate is good, and the people that will never be able to buy here. Thanks everyone for the laugh’s. If you didn’t buy during the last downturn you blew it. Seattle IS becoming like San Francisco and you BLEW IT. I’ve been reading this for 10 years and it’s the same people trying to justify not buying.

  81. 81
    Blake says:

    RE: pfft @ 76
    I grew up in northern New Jersey and Connecticut and saw the gutted cities and communities up close as they were collapsing… especially in Connecticut which still has many if the worst “old cities” like Bridgeport, Waterbury etc… Connecticut also has some of the worst racism I’ve seen anywhere (had large KKK membership in early 20th century) and the cops were brutal… still are! My ex was from East St Louis and we spent a lot of time there as well…

    The Washington Monthly just published this brilliant piece about how St. Louis prospered in the 20th century, then fell apart with the neoliberal deregulatory policies of the last 35 years. Read this if you read anything else this weekend. American history…
    http://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/maraprmay-2016/the-real-reason-middle-america-should-be-angry/
    -snip- “Like many “flyover” cities, St. Louis’s decline is not mainly a story of deindustrialization, but of decisions in Washington that opened the door to predatory monopoly.”

    People should be aware of all the hard fought battles and regulatory policies – enacted after Teddy Roosevelt started trust busting and in the 20s and 30s – that fostered competition and and protected small and medium-sized regional firms from predatory multinationals.

    Neoliberal, free market orthodoxy has devastated much of America… people are not happy about the economy and direction of our country… and the pols have no solutions… just more of the same.

    btw: Former bond trader Chris Arnade has been documenting all this with photos and brilliant commentary… “flyover country”… 21st century USA.
    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/chris-arnade

  82. 82
    Sarah says:

    Things seem well in Seattle … hope it stays sustainable in the months and years to come!

  83. 83
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: ess @ 26 – I’m thinking Portugal or Spain.
    Compared to Arizona or Florida, a much more agreeable climate, more reasonable health care costs, and European quality of life.
    If only the Eurozone would have another nice crisis so everything goes on sale there.

  84. 84
    ESS says:

    By Green-Horn @ 81:

    RE: ess @ 26 – I’m thinking Portugal or Spain.
    Compared to Arizona or Florida, a much more agreeable climate, more reasonable health care costs, and European quality of life.
    If only the Eurozone would have another nice crisis so everything goes on sale there.

    Love Spain – been there four times over the years, and hopefully the fifth visit won’t be too far off. The major impediment to visiting Spain is …..Italy which we have visited even more times and we REALLY love. Have looked over Portugal one time – also very nice.

    Spain has its own economic problems – about a 25% unemployment rate at present. Many young Spaniards are leaving the country in search of employment elsewhere. Thus there may be some good property investments in Spain at present.

    I have no idea of what the policy is as to American immigrants as per residing in those countries or the difficulty or ease of obtaining health insurance. I know many Brits reside both in Costa Del Sol in Spain and the Algave of Portugal -but Americans may be faced with different requirements than EU members.

    We in the United States reside in a country with so many different choices that virtually any type of climate, terrain and prices are available to those of us that are fortunate enough to be here. Even a state such as Arizona has vastly different areas and climates. But having been to Europe numerous times over the years, residing over there is also a great experience, and I can understand your interest in that area.

  85. 85
    pfft says:

    The real estate business must be a good one.

    Trump Likely Paid No Fed Taxes For Almost Twenty Years
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-likely-paid-no-taxes-for-almost-twenty-years

    It’s so awesome to post about drumpf and still be on topic. He’s had a terrible week. He isn’t going to be elected president! Predictwise gives Hillary a 79% chance of winning.

  86. 86
    ess says:

    By Sarah @ 80:

    Things seem well in Seattle … hope it stays sustainable in the months and years to come!

    https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data

    According to the above article – rents are rising in Seattle area and are back in the top ten most expensive rental markets in the US.

    A healthy rental market should support a healthy housing market. As you say – things do seem well in Seattle and should continue as to the short term.

  87. 87
    greg says:

    By ess @ 74:

    In many towns, the percentage of those voting for local elected officials is usually less than 50% of those eligible to vote, and those local officials can generate a great deal of taxes directly and indirectly.

    we recently had a 100 million dollar MPD decided by about 20% of registered voters. Lucky a few of us put time and our own money into fighting it, but the vast majority sat on their hands while a whole new tax district was being setup that would have the power to levy taxes for eternity.

    Seems crazy that the city council and vested interests are allowed to push a yes vote while the public has nobody to represent them. Vested intrests that stood to make lots of money for many decades spent about $60,000 pushing a yes vote, we had to fight them with just a few thousand dollars…

    The rules really need to be changed. MPDs and other special tax districts should require very high turnouts to count.

  88. 88
    ess says:

    By greg @ 85:

    By ess @ 74:

    In many towns, the percentage of those voting for local elected officials is usually less than 50% of those eligible to vote, and those local officials can generate a great deal of taxes directly and indirectly.

    we recently had a 100 million dollar MPD decided by about 20% of registered voters. Lucky a few of us put time and our own money into fighting it, but the vast majority sat on their hands while a whole new tax district was being setup that would have the power to levy taxes for eternity.

    Seems crazy that the city council and vested interests are allowed to push a yes vote while the public has nobody to represent them. Vested intrests that stood to make lots of money for many decades spent about $60,000 pushing a yes vote, we had to fight them with just a few thousand dollars…

    The rules really need to be changed. MPDs and other special tax districts should require very high turnouts to count.

    ————————————————————————————————————————-

    It is only going to get worse as the percentage of those who own homes decreases.

    Regardless of all the hype to the contrary, a large percentage of both political officials and government bureaucrats would be just as happy if no one was paying attention. After all, they know what is best for everyone – not stingy taxpayers that are not enlightened enough to support/vote for _______________ (fill in the blank).

    At least you were successful in having a say as to how tax dollars were to be spent in your community. That often isn’t the case.

  89. 89

    By pfft @ 83:

    The real estate business must be a good one.

    Trump Likely Paid No Fed Taxes For Almost Twenty Years
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-likely-paid-no-taxes-for-almost-twenty-years

    It’s so awesome to post about drumpf and still be on topic. He’s had a terrible week. He isn’t going to be elected president! Predictwise gives Hillary a 79% chance of winning.

    The reporting on this has been so bad that it makes Hillary and Trump sound knowledgeable when they’re talking about cyber-security. The biggest news of this story is probably that the “great” investor managed to lose so much money, but given what was already known even that being new is questionable.

    Let’s start with some basics. We pay taxes annually. That can create unfair results. Let’s say you make $1M on December 30 of one year and lose $1M on January 2 of the next. You’ve made nothing overall. The tax laws take care of that by allowing you to carry the loss back 2 or 3 years (depending on when it happened) or forward 18 or 20 years (depending on when it happened). And that is where the “Trump didn’t pay taxes for 18 years” comes from. At that point in time the loss carry-forwards expired after 18 years. We don’t really know what Trump paid when, because the NYT story is based on 3 single pages of 3 state tax returns. And the claim that he didn’t pay taxes for 18 years is based merely on how long the loss could have been carried forward. But as pointed out in this piece, by a blogger who is hardly conservative, it’s possible Trump had to pay taxes in 1995 due to the Alternative Minimum Tax, so we don’t even know what he had to pay in 1995!

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2016/10/02/donald-trumps-1995-return-what-the-new-york-times-missed/#5de21a75659d

    The AMT is extremely complicated, as anyone who has ever had to pay it knows. But the loss carry-forward and back provisions are fairly simple and straightforward. That the NYT makes it seem like some special tax treatment really calls into question their credibility.

    There are lots of reasons to not like either Trump or Hillary, but I suspect this piece may very well blow up on the NYT. They are in well over their heads because they don’t understand even the basics of tax law (or worse they are purposefully being biased). And beyond that, they have actually managed to give Trump a reason for withholding his taxes–that reporters and others will take small pieces of his returns and make nonsense claims not understanding tax law.

  90. 90

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 87 – One more thing about this. If your tax strategy to save $400,000,000 in taxes is to lose $1,000,000,000, you really need to hire a better accountant. It really shows how naive the NYT’s reporters are that they think that was a beneficial way to avoid paying taxes.

    Back in college one of my accounting professors used to mention doctors who would flush $1 down the toilet to save 40 cents in taxes. The thinking of the reporters is on par with that.

  91. 91
    Seattle_girl says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 89 – but Kary, Trump should just produce his tax returns like every other nominee. If what you are saying is true, then he should have no problem defending his tax returns.

    Don’t waste your time defending Trump. Just don’t.

  92. 92
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 90 – The MSM is having a tizzy over Trump. Their bias was obvious to this Bernie supporter when they failed to differentiate pledged delegates from super delegates when reporting on Hillary’s delegate count. While I am no Trump fan, the biased reporting is alarming. Editorializing has replaced reporting. Biased gotcha is the norm.

  93. 93

    By Seattle_girl @ 91:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 89 – but Kary, Trump should just produce his tax returns like every other nominee. If what you are saying is true, then he should have no problem defending his tax returns.

    Don’t waste your time defending Trump. Just don’t.

    I don’t like Trump at all (or Hillary either), but did you miss my point? The NYT gave him the best excuse in the world to not release his returns. Unlike other politicians whose income is mainly earned from personal services and maybe some capital gains, Trump’s returns are extremely complex. If released some people will focus in on small portions of the return to give completely inaccurate pictures of the returns. This is a great example of that, based on reporters having seen zero pages of a federal tax return.

    That said, the complexity of Trump’s income/asset situation has other issues unrelated to taxes, particularly those related to conflict of interest. Not sure how you put the various Trump properties into a blind trust.

  94. 94

    By Blurtman @ 92:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 90 – The MSM is having a tizzy over Trump. Their bias was obvious to this Bernie supporter when they failed to differentiate pledged delegates from super delegates when reporting on Hillary’s delegate count. While I am no Trump fan, the biased reporting is alarming. Editorializing has replaced reporting. Biased gotcha is the norm.

    You can also see press bias with the recent reporting of Johnson. While he does and says some odd things (the tongue thing for example), the reporting that he couldn’t think of a single foreign leader is just as bad as this Trump tax reporting. Clearly he had someone in mind and even mentioned they were a past leader of Mexico, but he couldn’t think of the name “Fox.”

    The press has become more interested in attracting eyeballs than unbiased accurate reporting.

    This reporting was more unbiased and accurate than what you see in most of the press. https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/weekend-update-10116-part-1-of-2/3108909

    (Although it was inaccurate in that it’s the Samsung Note that explodes, not the Galaxy.)

  95. 95
    Sam Hunter says:

    By Kit @ 73:

    RE: Sam Hunter @ 62

    Actually, I went back because my calculations were bothering me and found this:
    https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2015/08/13/home-price-to-rent-ratio-still-below-bubble-territory/

    So… despite not really having individual points that back it up cause I don’t have time for that, 35 is more reasonable when we look at a value of 32 a year ago and the lower pace of the rental market lately.
    Rents down last month
    Rents up 4% this month and 8.4% total YOY

    RE: wreckingbull @ 63

    That might be the logic as why the ratio is higher. I’m not the brightest at this though.

    All I know is that when I take a look at rent listings on craigslist and take a look at the estimated house price on zillow the price to rent ratio is much much lower than 35… and these houses are being rented out for that price since i ask my neighbors once the listing is taken down.

    Wrecking bull has a good point but it still seems way to high. I must be missing something else.

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