Around the Sound: King County sees the biggest gains in listings

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We know that inventory is growing in King County, but let’s look at broader Puget Sound area. Now that May is over, let’s update our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

May 2018 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $726,275 $500,000 $355,000 $360,000 $310,000 $372,750 $350,000 $396,250
Price YOY +14.9% +11.1% +14.9% +16.1% +7.8% +15.6% +9.7% +13.2%
New Listings 4,207 1,794 2,227 659 763 279 284 485
New Listings YOY +16.9% +5.1% +5.2% +4.4% +7.5% -2.8% -2.1% -4.5%
Active Inventory 2,912 1,246 1,829 497 638 301 379 557
Inventory YOY +35.5% +11.4% +0.7% -22.0% -0.9% -21.0% +11.5% -11.3%
Closed Sales 2,474 1,127 1,450 392 471 148 185 278
Sales YOY -4.0% -1.8% -1.7% -9.5% +3.7% -5.1% +2.2% -8.3%
Months of Supply 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0

The biggest gains in new listings and active inventory were in King County. Snohomish and Pierce also saw some decent increases, but further out it’s more of a mixed bag, with some counties still seeing declining listings and inventory.

Here’s a look at new listings across the region:

New Listings of Single-Family Homes

King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, and Thurston all saw year-over-year gains in new listings, while Island, Skagit, and Whatcom continued to fall.

Next up: Active inventory.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Inventory was up sizeably from year earlier in King, Snohomish, and Skagit. It barely increased in Pierce, and barely fell in Thurston. Kitsap, Island, and Whatcom were all down double digits from a year earlier.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Every county turned in a gain, with only Thurston and Skagit turning in single-digit price gains.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Six of the eight Puget Sound counties saw sales fall compared to a year ago.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

We’re still deep in sellers’ market territory, but all three of the central Puget Sound counties saw months of supply increase from a year ago.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

Finally, here’s a chart comparing the median price in May to the 2007 peak price in each county. Every Puget Sound has now exceeded the previous peak median price and is charting new territory.

Peak Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

In summary: So far the inventory surge is mainly just happening in King County, but it looks like it might be starting to gain some steam in the other counties. The closer you are to Seattle, the more inventory seems to be increasing.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

499 comments:

  1. 251
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 229:

    IF Bitcoin comes crashing down, I wonder who the winners and losers will be, and what secondary markets will be impacted.

    One clear winner: The environment, as mining comes to a halt. So one secondary loser would be the folks that make the hardware on which Bitcoin is mined. And also William Shatner!

    https://www.coindesk.com/final-frontier-william-shatner-boldly-goes-into-bitcoin-mining/

    (You can get Bitcoin charts from that link under “Data & Research/Bitcoin Price Index.”)

    bit coin has gone from 20,000 to around 6,000. it’s crashed pretty good. I wished I had bought bitcion in the early days when I was going to buy some just to have some…

  2. 252
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 237:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 234
    More Polls Against the NWO Open Border Party Pffft

    We simply don’t want NWO open borders in America, why do you?

    https://www.numbersusa.com/news/poll-more-americans-support-zero-tolerance-policy-catch-release

    nobody wants open borders. obama deported tons of people. another straw man you keep repeating.

  3. 253
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 242:

    By Eastsider @ 241:

    RE: uwp @ 237 – Try this – 22yo, 98004, $35000. There are 4 gold plans ranging from $3813.12 to $5,691! $35k/yr salary is barely above Seattle’s minimum wage.

    So how much should the mandated Obamacare premium cost for this young adult? You, pfft, greg, and stu don’t have an answer because Obamacare is not a health policy. All you do is to dismiss any valid criticism and direct all its failings to Trump and ‘right-wingers’.

    By Eastsider @ 241:

    RE: uwp @ 237 – Try this – 22yo, 98004, $35000. There are 4 gold plans ranging from $3813.12 to $5,691! $35k/yr salary is barely above Seattle’s minimum wage.

    You’ve increased your original complaint’s income by 15% to make it sadder. And you continue to assign a 22 year old a gold plan, rather than bronze.

    And I think health care should be covered by the government like most other developed countries.

    And 22 yo can be on their parents’ insurance. plus there are subsidies. that the republicans and trump want to undermine your healthcare is no secret. they do it openly. they sued and the SC ruled that states didn’t have to take medicare money. that cost 10+ million people from getting medicare. States like Virginia and Maine have had voters and pols fight to get medicare in their state.

    Republicans sued not just to hamper Obamacare but to have it in it’s entirety rule unconstitutional.

    We welcome valid criticism. I think deductibles are too high. I really don’t think there should be any deductibles. we want as few barriers to healthcare as possible.

  4. 254
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 246:

    By Justme @ 243:

    On topic: Wow, another spike in the KC SFH inventory this week

    06.22.2018 12:00 3383

    A combination of a buyer strike and sellers running for the exists? Looking at the table for May 2018, the early indication is that it is mostly sellers that are realizing the party is over, and trying to get out NOW. Too late, if you ask me. Even the must naive bubble-buyers are catching on.

    Now comes the pain, which will be suffered most by those who least deserve it. This could all have been avoided, but too many people made greed, avarice and exploitation their business model.

    It’s actually a few hundred higher than that, but still probably less than 1.5 month’s supply.

    that is a crazy amount of inventory. less than two months.

    I read today amazon has so many interns they need to run extra buses. I wonder how much extra housing is needed.

  5. 255
    Eric says:

    Thanks for those of you who post the inventory numbers and try to bring the discussion back to real estate.

    Does anybody have any insight into why Redfin in the past 8 months or so has seemingly changed the way they post a property’s history? I used to be able to look at a specific property listing on their website, and see all the dates it had been listed, changed price, gone pending, sold, etc., even across different MLS numbers. Now, however, I will quite frequently see listings that I know I’ve seen in the recent past, but Redfin’s property history shows that it is a brand new listing with no other recent history. I have to check Zillow’s entry for the listing to get the full history.
    As an example, here is the Redfin then Zillow entries for the same property:
    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Edmonds/7527-172nd-St-SW-98026/home/2718343

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/7527-172nd-St-SW,-Edmonds,-WA-98026_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false&fromHomePageTab=rent

    I have my own theory on why Redfin no longer displays the full history, but it is just a guess, and I’d like to hear others’ take on it.

  6. 256
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 247
    Do you read what Tim posts or any of the comments?

  7. 257
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 254 – I don’t think the interns are looking to buy, and Seattle has a growing glut of apartments. It’s a non-issue.

  8. 258
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 257:

    RE: pfft @ 254 – I don’t think the interns are looking to buy, and Seattle has a growing glut of apartments. It’s a non-issue.

    Are they high-end though or affordable for interns and others?

  9. 259
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 258 – Amazon gives them options. Some stay in apartments, presumably not penthouse suites, and many stay in unused UW dorms. They get a heavy subsidy, but must report said subsidy as income.

  10. 260
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Welcome to Seattle! Did you just put yourself around 1 mil in debt? Did it come with a sidewalk? Not a single sidewalk? So your house is where the sidewalk ends? So sad…

  11. 261
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Don’t worry about sucking on the bezos micro-d. Hold your head high! You’re doing great work!

  12. 262
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Someday even you can have a bezos micro-d. And a house where the sidewalk ends!!!!!

  13. 263
    Blurtman says:

    By pfft @ 253:

    they sued and the SC ruled that states didn’t have to take medicare money. that cost 10+ million people from getting medicare. States like Virginia and Maine have had voters and pols fight to get medicare in their state.

    I believe you mean Medicaid – medical insurance for the poor.

  14. 264
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 203 – 1875 or thereabouts, if you believe wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_immigration_laws

    The Immigration Act of 1924-1965 pretty much banned immigrants from southern Europe including Italy and Eastern Europe. White folks, I believe.

    Mr Macron said: “No country can take all the economic migrants.”

  15. 265

    RE: Eric @ 255 – Maybe showing history of prior listings violates some NWMLS rule, or maybe some other MLS’s rule and they want to be consistent across areas.

  16. 266

    By pfft @ 251:

    bit coin has gone from 20,000 to around 6,000. it’s crashed pretty good. I wished I had bought bitcion in the early days when I was going to buy some just to have some…

    I’m aware of the price history, but I consider $6,000 to be $5,999 too high.

  17. 267

    By pfft @ 253:

    And 22 yo can be on their parents’ insurance.

    Like expanding Medicaid, they could have made that change without totally screwing up the health insurance markets.

    I think deductibles are too high. I really don’t think there should be any deductibles. we want as few barriers to healthcare as possible.

    Wow, you really don’t have a clue about this topic. Without any deductibles (or barriers) health care prices would skyrocket because you’d have a market where consumers don’t give a crap what anything costs. And they’d be scheduling doctor visits anytime they had the sniffles. Part of the reason health care costs in the US are so high is the large number of people with relatively low deductible employer plans.

    An alternative for the employer market would be to have high deductibles with health savings accounts that do not evaporate at the end of each year. There consumers would still care. Health savings accounts are also a good option for others, but obviously they have to have the income to fund them, which not all people do.

  18. 268

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 267
    Yes Kary

    At Least read the policy carefully, or better yet, ask someone who put in a claim, what it really covered. Automobile warranties rarely cover anything that breaks…ask the ones that turned the oil burning Subarus or Shaky Ford Focus automatic transmissions, or Toyota Computer in for warranty replacements….LOL….the rich elite lie about these defects, quickly trade it in and now the poor’s garages have these rich elite time bombs that went unfixed but broke anyway…LOL

  19. 269

    RE: softwarengineer @ 268 – The oil burning claims are largely nonsense, and I say that owning a Subaru affected by their class action settlement. True my Subaru burns more oil than my 1989 Ranger with 200,000 miles on it, but one quart every 5,000 miles isn’t that bad by historical standards. I suspect it’s due to the boxer engine design. I wonder how Porsches do with oil. But years ago a lot of cars couldn’t go 5,000 miles, but back then oil changes were every 3,000, so it wasn’t as much of an issue.

    Don’t confuse situations where attorneys can make money creating a class and suing with something that’s a real problem. This is perhaps the best example of a frivolous class action lawsuit. Too bad there’s no mention of attorney fees being awarded against the plaintiffs’ lawyers.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-homedepot-lumber/lawsuit-saying-home-depot-tricks-buyers-of-4×4-lumber-is-deep-sixed-idUSKCN1GO2TN

  20. 270

    One other reason for fewer pendings is some listing agents are becoming obstacles to coming to terms. Recently that was a good thing when my buyer client was making an offer on a house I really didn’t care for much (questionable roof issues) and then found a really nice house after she walked away from the first. The listing agent on the first house had one of those silly “designations” you get by taking a 3 hour course–something like “designated negotiation agent.” Just proves how stupid and worthless those designations are because he was an obstacle to getting an offer put together.

    And again, I do think some agents are overshooting on price because it’s a much tougher market to price with the bidding wars occurring. If those become less common it will be good for buyers and make pricing easier for listing agents.

  21. 271

    RE: Eric @ 255

    I just checked one of my Pending transactions where my client is the 2nd buyer in escrow on a short sale. All of the changes from listing to present through two different buyer contracts and 3 price changes, both up and down price changes, are showing accurately. So it’s more likely a glitch than a change in the way they are reporting.

    Curious as to what your theory is.

  22. 272
    Justme says:

    Wow, look at the inventory go. Today is Saturday. Compare with Saturday a week ago:

    06.16.2018 10:00 3147
    06.23.2018 10:00 3465

    Also note that inventory is at a 21-month high today. The last time it was this high was:

    09.26.2016 20:00 3462

    I’m now convinced that bubble-sitter-sellers are panicking and running for the exits. All board! The bubble-sitter-seller train is leaving the station!

  23. 273

    By Justme @ 272:

    I’m now convinced that bubble-sitter-sellers are panicking and running for the exits. All aboard! The bubble train is leaving the station!

    There’s no way you can make that conclusion with the information you have. You need to know new listings. Last month the new actives were up about 600 and solds down about 100 (#s from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed). That’s the type of information you need.

    FWIW, pendings were off by less than 100 last month (same disclaimer) but I suspect they will be off by far more this month. That is some other information you need.

  24. 274
    Eric says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 271
    Redfin seems to not have an issue updating the changes in a current listing (i.e., when it goes pending, pending inspection, contingent, sold, etc.), but it frequently seems to ignore recent previous listings on the same property. Here’s another example of an apparently flipped property that is now on the market. Redfin shows it last sold in 2005, Zillow shows that sale but also the sale in 2017.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Edmonds/17927-75th-Pl-W-98026/home/2701920

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/17927-75th-Pl-W,-Edmonds,-WA-98026_rb/

    I’ve also seen in recent months where a house that was listed, didn’t sell, de-listed, and later re-listed didn’t show up in Redfin’s property history, but they used to show that.

    As to my theory… I’m not a conspiracy theory guy, but I do have a pessimistic view of human and therefore corporate nature. It occurs to me that probably Redfin benefits much more in a hot seller’s market then a tepid one; rapidly increasing sales prices will increase their revenue. The benefit to them in this appreciation is perhaps even more now that they have gotten into the business of directly buying and selling houses themselves with Redfin Now. Could it be that Redfin has intentionally decided to not show previous transactions that could give prospective buyers the impression that either the market is slowing or is a speculative bubble (lots of flips).

    Of course I have no evidence of their intentions, and quite likely there is a reasonable explanation for their change, but something *has* changed. They used to show all this information, and now they don’t.

  25. 275
    Eric says:

    RE: Eric @ 274

    Here’s yet another flip “hidden” by Redfin. I could keep posting more examples, but you get the idea.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Edmonds/17439-69th-Pl-W-98026/home/2718497

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/17439-69th-Pl-W,-Edmonds,-WA-98026_rb/

  26. 276

    RE: Eric @ 275

    I do notice that they seem to upgrade their estimate of value as soon as I list a property so that their estimate is closer to my list price. So yes, it is possible that the original, heavily weighted to consumer benefit perspective, has changed a bit to a more corporate “what’s best for us” mentality. But I think we all expected that to happen.

    It’s kinda like the no more “get a 2nd dinner for free!” coupon after a business is up and running. :)

    The problem with most “alternative business models” generally is they often pretend to be different until they can revert to being “just one of the guys” after they get a foothold.

  27. 277
    David says:

    Speaking of Redfin, here’s a property I’ve been watching in Burien. Any ideas why this is still on the market?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/12419-2nd-Ave-SW-98146/home/183353

  28. 278
    pfft says:

    I was thinking. Is it really possible that we are going to do the national real estate bubble again so soon after the first big one? crazy. Are we really going to have to rescue banks again.

  29. 279
    pfft says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 260:

    Welcome to Seattle! Did you just put yourself around 1 mil in debt? Did it come with a sidewalk? Not a single sidewalk? So your house is where the sidewalk ends? So sad…

    I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.

  30. 280
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 264:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 203 – 1875 or thereabouts, if you believe wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_immigration_laws

    The Immigration Act of 1924-1965 pretty much banned immigrants from southern Europe including Italy and Eastern Europe. White folks, I believe.

    Mr Macron said: “No country can take all the economic migrants.”

    Just about every nationality(meaning yes you white people) have been discriminated against but it’s pretty much out of our collective memory for the most part. People talk about the model asian immigrant. but that is a lie. we discriminated against asian immigrants pretty good during our history. it’s just that we forget.

  31. 281
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 267:

    By pfft @ 253:

    And 22 yo can be on their parents’ insurance.

    Like expanding Medicaid, they could have made that change without totally screwing up the health insurance markets.

    I think deductibles are too high. I really don’t think there should be any deductibles. we want as few barriers to healthcare as possible.

    Wow, you really don’t have a clue about this topic. Without any deductibles (or barriers) health care prices would skyrocket because you’d have a market where consumers don’t give a crap what anything costs. And they’d be scheduling doctor visits anytime they had the sniffles. Part of the reason health care costs in the US are so high is the large number of people with relatively low deductible employer plans.

    I have heard literally nobody talk about deductibles being the main driver about healthcare costs. literally nobody. if this were true the socialized medicine countries would have much higher costs because almost NOBDOY has medical bills.

    How about a link or source?

  32. 282
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: David @ 277

    Strange. Folks moving to Burien are usually looking for either 1) more airport noise, 2) cheaper hookers. Maybe this house is a little too far from the airport for your typical Burien shopper?

  33. 283
    pedaltothemetal says:

    RE: Eric @ 275

    Poor Redfin. They are following the Amazon model of no profit required. They will soon fall on hard times. Till then, just use their service for free!!!

  34. 284
    David says:

    I’ve not seen a single hooker in the Burien area. In fact, I don’t think I’ve seen a real-life hooker for many many years any where other than Hong Kong & Costa Rica (where it is apparently legal & gross). Talking to one is kind of like your toilet came to life and wanted to chat you up. I don’t think that house is too far from the airport either. Certainly airport noise isn’t the issue with that house.

    By pedaltothemetal @ 282:

    RE: David @ 277

    Strange. Folks moving to Burien are usually looking for either 1) more airport noise, 2) cheaper hookers. Maybe this house is a little too far from the airport for your typical Burien shopper?

  35. 285
    Blurtman says:

    By pfft @ 280:

    By Blurtman @ 264:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 203 – 1875 or thereabouts, if you believe wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_immigration_laws

    The Immigration Act of 1924-1965 pretty much banned immigrants from southern Europe including Italy and Eastern Europe. White folks, I believe.

    Mr Macron said: “No country can take all the economic migrants.”

    Just about every nationality(meaning yes you white people) have been discriminated against but it’s pretty much out of our collective memory for the most part. People talk about the model asian immigrant. but that is a lie. we discriminated against asian immigrants pretty good during our history. it’s just that we forget.

    True in general, although the Kennedy clan still taks about Irish Need Not Apply discrimination back in the day. But such discrimination regarding immigration and immigrants was typically first based upon concern over jobs. For example, whites and Mexicans (before they were Hispanic) attack Fillipinos over jobs: see Watonsoville, CA riots.

    But let’s please kill the meme that the USA always welcomed immigrants.

  36. 286

    By pfft @ 279:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 260:

    Welcome to Seattle! Did you just put yourself around 1 mil in debt? Did it come with a sidewalk? Not a single sidewalk? So your house is where the sidewalk ends? So sad…

    I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.

    Streets with cul-de-sacs typically don’t have sidewalks.

  37. 287

    By pfft @ 281:

    I have heard literally nobody talk about deductibles being the main driver about healthcare costs. literally nobody. if this were true the socialized medicine countries would have much higher costs because almost NOBDOY has medical bills.

    How about a link or source?

    You really need to take a course in basic economics.

    Earlier you mentioned barriers to healthcare. In countries with socialized medicine the government is the barrier. They control what services you get and when you get them. In countries without socialized medicine price is the barrier. In countries without socialized medicine and lots of low deductible insurance coverage there is almost no barrier, and a resulting huge demand for medical services. Prices get driven up because it’s basically uncontrolled demand. Virtually no one cares what anything costs!

    This has been recognized for decades! Back in 1963 Nobel Prize winner Kenneth Arrow wrote:

    It is frequently observed that widespread medical insurance increased the demand for medical care. Coinsurance provisions have been introduced into many major medical policies to meet this contingency . . ..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2012/05/12/how-employer-sponsored-insurance-drives-up-health-costs/ at page 146.

    But beyond that, just think about it. If you have a low deductible policy, are you going to ask the doctor what a procedure costs or try to find a doctor who will do it for less? Are you going to go find the lowest price pharmacy or even look for lower price alternative drugs? No, you’re not! And that leads to increased costs because your demand for services and products is not restrained by anything other than insurance coverage. This is literally Economics 101.

    This is why I have repeatedly said that the Affordable Care Act is throwing gasoline on a fire. The problem is high costs, high costs are caused largely by insurance, but Obamacare’s solution was more insurance! It was madness, even ignoring the idea of letting more and more really sick people into the pool each year.

  38. 288

    Connecting up criticism of the Seattle City Council with real estate, how do you think their spending policies are going to deal with a downturn in the real estate market? I believe the city’s share of the 1.78% is 0.5%–almost a third. That’s a lot of money right now.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/23/stamp-duty-revenues-plunge-housing-market-freezes/

  39. 289

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 269
    They Claim the Subarus Don’t Burn Oil….LOL

    My friends’2014 Impressa was brand new and got 1000 miles per quart of oil and they told him that was normal and not covered by warranty….they finally rebuilt the engine [after threatening lawsuit] and guess what Kary? So what, the rebuild won’t fix a ring engine block defect anyway….a new design will though….it continues burning oil on the new thin 5-20 oil. Google it Kary, its common knowledge now.

    Owners never admit it…they trade the junk off and secretly buy GMs or God Forbid, a Ford Focus…..LOL….the poor get stuck with the oil burners.

  40. 290

    RE: softwarengineer @ 288
    I Looked the Class Action Lawsuit Against Subaru Up for You Kary

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/07/18/subaru-oil-burner-lawsuit/12859865/

    Simply horrifying….reminds me of the cheap Vegas and Corvairs…only this is a $30K sedan from Japan. I haven’t checked engine block part numbers, but I’d bet money the 2018 has the same chronic defect [they don’t report] as the 2013….engine blocks and ring design rarely change much in a decade for a particular sedan.

  41. 291

    RE: softwarengineer @ 288 – I do think part of the problem is the low viscosity oil, but for your information, GM cars do tend to burn a lot of oil too. GM has said for years that 1000 miles per quart is within specifications, although the link below mentions 2,000.

    https://www.cars.com/articles/how-much-oil-consumption-is-normal-1420682864535/

  42. 292

    RE: softwarengineer @ 289 – I’m well aware of that lawsuit–I’m part of the class (2013 Legacy). I have a copy of the agreement on my computer. It’s BS–something for attorneys to make money, like most class actions lawsuits.

    Sure I wish it didn’t burn a quart every 5,000 miles, and I’m glad I now have an extended warranty in case it gets worse, but I decided to buy out the lease at the end of the term while that suit was going on, knowing how much oil the car consumed (it had about 30,000 miles at that point). It’s a very good car overall–my favorite car ever (which of course doesn’t include light pickups like my 89 Ranger).

  43. 293
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 284
    Go to broadway in north Everett, they are all over. I rented rooms there and this guy I rented to picked them up there frequently until I evicted him.

  44. 294

    RE: softwarengineer @ 289
    Speaking of Automotive Safety Engineering; My Professional Engineering Experience Forte BTW

    My 2014 Charger had two imaginary safety defects that I’m proud of:

    They installed a free alternator at 40K miles [all alternators break about then anyway?]. I rushed into the dealer greedily to get mine, the 3 year warranty had expired too. I loved that free fix that probably wasn’t a safety defect anyway?

    They gave me a new tire jack for spares….called it a safety defect too…LOL

    Then the NWO Fake News attacked the left American engineered rotor’s optical wheel speed sensor failure as a bogus safety defect against Dodges and falsely alleged the cruise control would stick on….the opposite was true, it would not turn on with a broke sensor. That bogus 4.3M vehicle FCA cruise stuck on safety recall recently died out(?) after I reported it to FCA and Fake News MSM BTW….coincidence??? LOL

    I’d measure my own 0-60 MPH acceleration with an iPhone movie and stop watch too….NWO Car and Driver lies about that too…my Charger 6 cylinder with a ZTF Mercedes 5 Speed [last built in 2014] does like 0-60 mph in approx 4 secs…not 6.2 sec….MPG stats, same NWO lies. Its a proverbial rocket with an American engineered 30-35 mpg hwy V-6 fuel mileage too. The 5 speed ZTF Mercedes tranny has 120K miles between suggested maintenance…why is that bad? LOL

    The base V-6 Charger is available new for base Corolla/Camry type prices…around $23K with HUGE FCA dealer discounts…it comes with 4000 lbs of steel safety engineering steel protection surrounding [and hearing protection from wheel noise] you too….LOL…it comes with the Chrysler 300 quiet muffler system too [the Challenger does not]. Why is this bad?

    Its beautiful and red with real chrome wheels too.

  45. 295

    And Now the Poor in Seattle Get Stuck With These Traded Off Time Bomb Toyota Lemons

    Because the open border foreign controlled courts in America lied too…

    Lying about safety defects makes Toyota junk OK???? LOL

    https://mashable.com/2014/03/19/toyota-lied-aceleration-recall/#XeEeWA8vhsqs

  46. 296
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 286 – Price transparency and rational consumer decision making will go a very long way in starting to fix the problem. Two things that simply don’t exist today. Still many other issues in the complex problem. There is no ‘main’ cause as pfft likes to posit. Talking points and Utopian dreams won’t get us very far.

    It’s far from a perfect example, but laser vision correction surgery could be viewed as a medical procedure where these features exist. In the last 20 years, quality has gone up while price has gone down.

  47. 297
    David says:

    I followed two rules when renting houses:

    1) No room renting because you are guaranteed problems. No roommates either.
    2) Tear down the fences because you will attract dog people.

    Still, I managed to buy a house that wound up with a gay sex club opening up across the street. I went ballistic on that biz. I actually found the local lesbian neighbors quite helpful in getting the place shut down. NBC showed up and hidden cammed the place.

    They knew it was me too! #MeToo. They were pissed off mightily at my virtue signaling. They went public with their disdain for gentrification and tried race baiting me. So I went public with a LIVE webcam (2 actually). One cam was on the front door. The other cam was of the parking areas. I was hoping they would burn my house down. The insurance money would have been welcome during the Obama Depression.

    By Erik @ 292:

    RE: David @ 284
    Go to broadway in north Everett, they are all over. I rented rooms there and this guy I rented to picked them up there frequently until I evicted him.

  48. 298
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 285:

    By pfft @ 279:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 260:

    Welcome to Seattle! Did you just put yourself around 1 mil in debt? Did it come with a sidewalk? Not a single sidewalk? So your house is where the sidewalk ends? So sad…

    I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.

    Streets with cul-de-sacs typically don’t have sidewalks.

    And I would say you probably don’t ever ever want to live in a cul de sac. the road leading to the cul de sac may have a sidewalk though.

  49. 299
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 286:

    By pfft @ 281:

    I have heard literally nobody talk about deductibles being the main driver about healthcare costs. literally nobody. if this were true the socialized medicine countries would have much higher costs because almost NOBDOY has medical bills.

    How about a link or source?

    You really need to take a course in basic economics.

    Earlier you mentioned barriers to healthcare. In countries with socialized medicine the government is the barrier. They control what services you get and when you get them. In countries without socialized medicine price is the barrier. In countries without socialized medicine and lots of low deductible insurance coverage there is almost no barrier, and a resulting huge demand for medical services. Prices get driven up because it’s basically uncontrolled demand. Virtually no one cares what anything costs!

    This has been recognized for decades! Back in 1963 Nobel Prize winner Kenneth Arrow wrote:

    It is frequently observed that widespread medical insurance increased the demand for medical care. Coinsurance provisions have been introduced into many major medical policies to meet this contingency . . ..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2012/05/12/how-employer-sponsored-insurance-drives-up-health-costs/ at page 146.

    But beyond that, just think about it. If you have a low deductible policy, are you going to ask the doctor what a procedure costs or try to find a doctor who will do it for less? Are you going to go find the lowest price pharmacy or even look for lower price alternative drugs? No, you’re not! And that leads to increased costs because your demand for services and products is not restrained by anything other than insurance coverage. This is literally Economics 101.

    This is why I have repeatedly said that the Affordable Care Act is throwing gasoline on a fire. The problem is high costs, high costs are caused largely by insurance, but Obamacare’s solution was more insurance! It was madness, even ignoring the idea of letting more and more really sick people into the pool each year.

    all of this is just so wrong I don’t even really know where to begin so I will barely try. what if you are unconscious while you are “‘shopping” for the best price? it’s just ridiculous.

    “but Obamacare’s solution was more insurance!”

    insurance saves lives. no doubt thousands, probably tens of thousand of people a year will be alive due to health insurance. many will extend their lives and have all their limbs because of the ACA.

  50. 300

    By wreckingbull @ 295:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 286 – Price transparency and rational consumer decision making will go a very long way in starting to fix the problem. .

    Oh, but the Mason Clinic has a sign posted somewhere indicating that (unspecified) facility charges will be applied to certain procedures because the clinic office you’re in is physically attached to their hospital across the street by a skybridge. What more transparancy could you possibly want? /sarc

  51. 301

    By pfft @ 298:

    all of this is just so wrong I don’t even really know where to begin so I will barely try. what if you are unconscious while you are “‘shopping” for the best price? it’s just ridiculous.

    Clearly you have never even sat through a single hour of an economics course if you think all that is wrong. Funny you think you understand the healthcare market and health insurance, probably the most complicated areas in our economy today, when you don’t even have a basic understanding of even the most simple concepts.

    And wonderful comeback about being unconscious. Because that’s precisely how the typical patient with employer-provided traditional healthcare acts! They certainly don’t put any brain cells to work making their purchasing decisions.

  52. 302
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 300 – If I was balance billed I did. Seriously thinking about moving to Florida because of their anti-balance-billing laws.

    AND do you ever hear of doctors doing pro-bono bone marrow transplants? Why are people dying and it is SOO important for someone to live that doctors climb all over themselves to give someone this transplant for free?

  53. 303
    S-Crow says:

    A brief sampling from the trenches:

    Sale Fail 1: appraisal comes in low, buyer walks after seller refuses to sell at appraised value. Bank on market with sale fail “due to buyer unable to obtain financing.” Baloney.

    Sale Fail 2: appraisal comes in low, buyer walks after seller refuses to sell at appraised value. However, after a week, listing agent contacts buyers agent asking if buyer is still around because seller reconsiders and will sell at appraised value. (on this sale our office is not involved with but the buyer and I conversed during the sale so that’s how I’m privy to the info). Sale is still on the rocks.

    Auto industry, Visa/MC, Dept. Stores, Water Craft/Outdoor sports, home improvement, Flipping all being financed by the equity ATM machine via cash out refi’s/debt “consolidation”. Debt is not gone but conveniently being shifted onto housing. CLTV’s increasing. * * *

    * * * right out of the playbook of 05, 06, 07. Not necessarily the insane equity extraction volume compared to that period but it’s rising and completely lock step with St. Louis Fed remarks about consumer all time high debt loads. Certainly debt at 5.125% is better than debt at 18-25%.

    But hey, you now “own” your ’17 tricked out F-350 or Audi S-4 ” free and clear” —-(cough’s, clearing throat……let me rephrase…. rather, that would be Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. or other lender)

    Lastly, when your banker pulls you aside and asks me what I’m seeing in terms of financing and refi’s it means the regional banks are possibly seeing meaningful (although not necessarily beneficial) changes to their pipelines. Actually, it makes me a bit pleased to see that some might be having their radar on vs. the regionals that were drinking the Koolaide only to see them fold within months after the last bust.

  54. 304
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Only paper gains till you sell.

  55. 305
    redmondjp says:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 303:

    Only paper gains till you sell.

    And higher property taxes as well!

  56. 306
    wreckingbull says:

    By S-Crow @ 303:

    A brief sampling from the trenches:

    But hey, you now “own” your ’17 tricked out F-350 or Audi S-4 ” free and clear” —-(cough’s, clearing throat……let me rephrase…. rather, that would be Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. or other lender)

    Ah yes, the ‘his and hers’ accessories for Snohomish and Skagit Counties. The amount of pickup trucks that see no work is too damn high!! I have been seeing an alarming influx as well.

  57. 307
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By wreckingbull @ 306:

    The amount of pickup trucks that see no work is too damn high!! I have been seeing an alarming influx as well.

    If trucks see no work*, so what? Alternatively, what’s the right number of trucks that see no work? And while you’re at it, what’s the right number of sports sedans that never see a track?

    *And if said trucks see their work at the owner’s vacation property on the other side of the mountains or in the San Juans, how would you ever know?

  58. 308

    By S-Crow @ 303:

    A brief sampling from the trenches:

    Sale Fail 1: appraisal comes in low, buyer walks after seller refuses to sell at appraised value. Bank on market with sale fail “due to buyer unable to obtain financing.” Baloney.

    I noticed one of those about a month ago, on a transaction from over a year ago. Our buyer backed out on inspection for reasons specified (we asked the seller to fix some things), and the listing agent put it back on market as “Buyer got cold feet.”

    Auto industry, Visa/MC, Dept. Stores, Water Craft/Outdoor sports, home improvement, Flipping all being financed by the equity ATM machine via cash out refi’s/debt “consolidation”. Debt is not gone but conveniently being shifted onto housing. CLTV’s increasing. * * *

    * * * right out of the playbook of 05, 06, 07. Not necessarily the insane equity extraction volume compared to that period but it’s rising and completely lock step with St. Louis Fed remarks about consumer all time high debt loads. Certainly debt at 5.125% is better than debt at 18-25%.

    But hey, you now “own” your ’17 tricked out F-350 or Audi S-4 ” free and clear”

    That behavior goes back far further than 05, although yes it was rampant during the years you mention. I remember one neighborhood up in Snohomish County where I can only assume one of the residents was a loan originator, because virtually everyone in that neighborhood refinanced at least once a year.

    But as to it being earlier, I would often see that past behavior with my bankruptcy clients. They would run up credit card debt, refinance to pay it off, run up credit card debt, refinance to pay it off, etc. It would only stop when either values stopped increasing or their income wasn’t sufficient to qualify for the additional mortgage debt. That behavior started well prior to 05.

  59. 309

    By redmondjp @ 305:

    By pedaltothemetal @ 303:

    Only paper gains till you sell.

    And higher property taxes as well!

    Not necessarily, but we’ve gone over that before. Only a part of the RE tax goes up proportionately with value (unrelated to what the value of other properties is doing).

    But the other response would be: Unless you’re moving to another area or lesser type of housing, anything you move to will be more expensive too. If leveraged in the first property though the increase in value can provide down payment funds.

  60. 310

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 301
    The Health Care Solution is Also Similarly Simple

    End socialized overpopulation and worker shortage making it “forced” economically feasible to hire all workers with mandatory 40 hr weeks and employer supplied healthcare. Pfft why are you against this when it benefits the poor Democrats? Now the rates are affordable low because healthy folks are covered too. Immigration fix at border? Another simple fix, put a mirror at the invaders entrance showing ’em the exit….I believe Canada already does this.

  61. 311

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 307 – I don’t know how people live without a truck–rent one maybe? That’s why I keep the 89 Ranger around as a third vehicle. At a minimum there are a couple of trips to the dump a year. But there are also things you buy or need to transport which are just too big to fit in most cars. Sure it would probably be cheaper for me to rent, but it’s more convenient to own. And for years prior to marriage that was my only vehicle, so the only additional expense was related to gas mileage.

    As to Wreckingbull’s comments, I remember back when I owned an RX/7 how it seemed really out of place in Mason County, with all of its pickup trucks and SUVs. Ironic because rural areas like that have the best roads for sports cars. Having a sports car in Seattle is sort of pointless given the traffic and Interstates where any car can handle the speeds you’re likely to drive.

  62. 312
    Doug says:

    Those mortgage rates sure are getting out of control! 10y back down to 2.87% while the 2y has crept up to 2.52%. Only 35 bps before inversion. Definitely getting close to recession, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for Seattle home prices.

  63. 313
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 307 – Simmer down there guy. I was just having a little fun at all the perfectly detailed $80,000 grocery getters where I live. If it makes you feel better, I drive a 1-ton diesel. It’s OK if you drive a truck, we won’t tell anyone.

  64. 314

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 291
    My 1989 Corsica and 1999 Cavalier Burned No Oil

    They were cheap old design GM products too.

    My 1978 Ford Pinto did burn “some” oil….LOL

  65. 315
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 311 – I find my 6×10 utility trailer far more useful than my truck bed. Way lower, double the payload, and far better tie-downs. I bought it from a place in Maple Valley for about $1700 and it has been the one of the best purchases of my life.

  66. 316

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 311
    My 1978 Pinto Hatchback Carried 4×8 sheet rock and plywood [its very wide]….I remodeled my old Bellevue House using this “truck” car….LOL

  67. 317
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By wreckingbull @ 313:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 307 – Simmer down there guy. I was just having a little fun at all the perfectly detailed $80,000 grocery getters where I live. If it makes you feel better, I drive a 1-ton diesel. It’s OK if you drive a truck, we won’t tell anyone.

    I don’t actually drive a truck. I even ride my bike to work. But I do sure get annoyed at the amount of sanctimonious bullsh!t I see thrown at truck drivers because they don’t “need” one as if they’re some POS polluting our environment. And it’s usually by people who have never actually done a gas mileage comparison between a recent F-150 and a sports sedan. Oh, but they’re so much better people because they care; even if they actually consume more that that guy with the pickup.

  68. 318
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 317 – Agreed. People can do whatever they want. Other people (at least some) are still allowed to find humor in this, right? Or do we need to police that? My neighbor has electric running boards that automatically lower to let his wife step out of his 6 inch lifted rig when the engine stops. I think that is hilarious! If you don’t, it’s OK.

  69. 319
    N says:

    Seattle renters score big as landlords dangle freebies to fill empty apartments

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/free-amazon-echo-2-months-free-rent-2500-gift-cards-seattle-apartment-glut-gives-renters-freebies/

    At newly opened properties, 40 percent of all brand-new units across the region are sitting empty — that works out to about 5,000 units that have never been lived in, according to Apartment Insights/RealData. About 10,000 additional units across King and Snohomish counties are sitting empty at buildings that aren’t brand new, largely because of regular turnover.

    A stunning 26 percent of all apartments in the core of downtown Seattle right now are empty, up from just 5 percent a year prior (the number is skewed by brand-new buildings that take a while to lease up, though vacancy rates at older buildings downtown are also rising).

    Apartment construction is set to continue at a similar pace through at least 2019, so the trend will likely continue.

  70. 320
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: N @ 319 – This apartment glut and condo shortage are just too large for market forces to not cause a non-trivial portion of these to convert to condos.

    This was in the news this week:

    https://seattle.curbed.com/2018/6/20/17486106/600-wall-street-condos-seattle

  71. 321
    pedaltothemetal says:

    FANG is looking really nice this morning!

    The time to buy is now!! Get yourself in debt here! I wonder what happens if tech has a little downturn? Anyone know?

  72. 322

    Civil War II Immigration Fight and Seattle Real Estate Planning

    Cannot be ignored….financial planning includes NWO/Confederate history reading/understanding….the Confederates/NWO Open Border for slave wages hid Civil War II gold [trillions?] in 1860 and the slave masters want a NWO/Confederate future of forced slave wages or they cry like spoiled rich elite babies. Checkout America Unearthed on the History Channel for this treasure hunter reality….Civil War II hidden Confederate gold from John Wilkes Boothe’s secret NWO society…

    Even the MSM is talking Civil War II now….I’m not alone…and they blame Trump for being a Confederate….its the other way around with History Documentation too….LOL

  73. 323
    Minnie says:

    RE: pfft @ 279

    “I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.”

    I think this is more opinion than anything else. Curb and gutter — yes (for drainage and aesthetics). Sidewalks, not necessarily.
    For those residing in the City of Seattle, the City is trying to create policy whereby the adjacent homeowner would pay for sidewalk repairs and maintenance. I’m not talking about shoveling it when it snows, I’m talking full-blown repair that the property owners would be on the hook for. If you have ever done concrete work you will understand how expensive this could be. This policy may roll out sooner than later due to the City having to repair the sidewalks for DOJ claims coming in…. if this is enacted, those w/out sidewalks in front of their homes will be rejoicing….

  74. 324
    pedaltothemetal says:

    Anyone else experience culture shock in Seattle’s sidewalk-less neighborhoods?

    I thought I was in a developing country:
    http://thecityfix.com/blog/nairobis-dangerous-streets-set-to-become-safer-for-pedestrians-and-cyclists-jacqueline-klopp/

  75. 325
    Minnie says:

    Redfin Property Activity (love, cross-outs, views)

    I’ve been observing lately that there is less and less correlation between the # of “loves” a property gets on redfin vs how quick it goes pending. Ardell has discussed this theory before and up until recently, I believe it held true. Lately however, I am seeing some home that have 150+ “loves” (or favorites, however you view it) and yet are sitting on the market, review offer date come-and-gone.

    I’m also observing more properties being viewed/loved in general. Has anyone else noticed this?

    I’m not sure what this means, I’m thinking more people (neighbors?) are using redfin for fun now, and potentially saving the home to get an alert when it sells? This post doesn’t mean much but its just my observations of what I’m seeing and its interesting (to me!)

  76. 326
    wreckingbull says:

    By Minnie @ 325:

    I’m also observing more properties being viewed/loved in general. Has anyone else noticed this?

    I have too, although my theory is that this is just a return to a more sane market, where someone actually has inventory to choose from and they are taking more time to actually compare the pros and cons of multiple properties.

  77. 327
    Justme says:

    RE: N @ 319

    Thanks for that info, @N. I feel some sarcasm coming on, directed at the bubble-industrial-complex:

    >>At newly opened properties, 40 percent of all brand-new units across the region are sitting empty

    But, but, but …. BUILT IS FILLED! Right? Right??

    >>A stunning 26 percent of all apartments in the core of downtown Seattle right now are empty, up from just 5 percent a year prior

    But, but, but …. population growth! Right? Right??

    >>(the number is skewed by brand-new buildings that take a while to lease up, though vacancy rates at older buildings downtown are also rising).

    Empty is empty, whether old or new (not sarc). For any number of units being built in excess of population growth, occupancy is a zero-sum game.

    >>Apartment construction is set to continue at a similar pace through at least 2019,

    No problem, according to the OFM between-census population change estimates, each empty unit will magically be filed with 2.X persons (yes, sarc). Yes, that is quite literally how OFM estimates the net migration: Built-is-filled.

  78. 328

    By Minnie @ 323:

    RE: pfft @ 279

    “I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.”

    I think this is more opinion than anything else. Curb and gutter — yes (for drainage and aesthetics). Sidewalks, not necessarily.

    At our old place in Seattle we had sidewalks but no curbs/gutters. Now we have curbs and gutters, but no sidewalk. Completely opposite and matters zero to me.

    The only curb issues I care about is I hate those sloping curved curbs that they use so that they don’t have to put in driveway entrances in the sidewalk. Those don’t work well as driveway entrances unless you have a 4×4 or truck (high suspension) and they don’t work well as curbs because low-status people drive up on them and park on the sidewalk, pretending that their 15-year-old car is precious. /rant

  79. 329
    pfft says:

    By Minnie @ 323:

    RE: pfft @ 279

    “I think as a rule of thumb you probably shouldn’t live anywhere where there isn’t a sidewalk unless you live out in the country.”

    I think this is more opinion than anything else. Curb and gutter — yes (for drainage and aesthetics). Sidewalks, not necessarily.
    For those residing in the City of Seattle, the City is trying to create policy whereby the adjacent homeowner would pay for sidewalk repairs and maintenance. I’m not talking about shoveling it when it snows, I’m talking full-blown repair that the property owners would be on the hook for. If you have ever done concrete work you will understand how expensive this could be. This policy may roll out sooner than later due to the City having to repair the sidewalks for DOJ claims coming in…. if this is enacted, those w/out sidewalks in front of their homes will be rejoicing….

    would you live somewhere that didn’t have a road? that’s how you separate people walking from cars. do you want to walk in the road? I’ve seen young kids walking on the side of the road 4 feet from cars going 50 mph.

    owning a car is expensive but walking is basically free and good for you. people who walk to work live longer.

    My original point is that I think sidewalks provide a good clue about how your government is run.

  80. 330
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 318:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 317 – Agreed. People can do whatever they want. Other people (at least some) are still allowed to find humor in this, right? Or do we need to police that? My neighbor has electric running boards that automatically lower to let his wife step out of his 6 inch lifted rig when the engine stops. I think that is hilarious! If you don’t, it’s OK.

    I won’t apologize for laughing at ridiculous show trucks. They take up space on the roads and in the parking lots and hardly ever have anything in the back. I am sure construction people laugh at them. I don’t know any that come close to the MPG of sedans but whatever…

    Plus they are very expensive.

  81. 331
    pfft says:

    RE: Justme @ 327 – I can see if apartments are sitting if they are higher end than the people that need a rental.

  82. 332
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: pfft @ 331 – Read article. It’s not just downtown apartments.

  83. 333
    pedaltothemetal says:

    So nice to see that dip in tech today!!

    GitHub worth $7.5 billion? Really? Nadella really wants to be Ballmer. Developers deverlopers developers!

    Disney chasing netflix is just hilarious. Just got to love the “lose money for forever” model invented by Amazon, now perfected by Netflix.

    Really can’t wait for the end.

    So many ***** tech companies IPOs this year.

    They sense the end is near.

    The layoffs will be sad.

    Bezos and Nadella will pretend they are sad but should see better prices on their head and taint waxings.

  84. 334
    Nicole says:

    RE: Minnie @ 325 – I “love” all sorts of homes I’m not really interested in just to make it easier to keep track of what they sell for later on. I also add homes to my house tour list for the same reason.

  85. 335
    Minnie says:

    RE: pfft @ 329

    “My original point is that I think sidewalks provide a good clue about how your government is run.”

    I still don’t see your original point. Have you heard of Woonerf streets? They are streets with no sidewalks, they are meant to be shared and they are most prevalent in Europe.

    Using your example of a roadway that is 50mph (a highway), then yes I’d prefer not to have that in my neighborhood in general, but on a neighborhood street or minor collector that’s a different story.

    I could go on. I think you yourself have a personal preference for sidewalks but that’s different than assessing the quality of a local government based on the rhetoric that there “aren’t any sidewalks”, when you really don’t know much about this topic.

  86. 336
    Doug says:

    Seattle leads the nation (again) in April — up 2.69%.

  87. 337
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 320
    I think it takes 7 years to convert a built apartment complex into a condo complex. The hoa will sue the builder of this complex. People that bought in this building will only be able to sell to all cash buyers. This will drive prices down for a buyer with cash.

  88. 338

    By pfft @ 330:

    >I won’t apologize for laughing at ridiculous show trucks. They take up space on the roads and in the parking lots and hardly ever have anything in the back.

    All vehicles take up space on the roads and in parking lots, and many cars don’t have anything in their trunks. You’re not really doing anything to distinguish them from other vehicles.

    Returning to the topic of real estate, this reminds me a bit of people who mock those who buy the small, by today’s standards, houses in Ballard. Some people actually like that style of house, and wouldn’t be caught dead in a 2,500+ square foot modern house.

    Different people like different things. Get over it.

  89. 339

    By wreckingbull @ 332:

    RE: pfft @ 331 – Read article. It’s not just downtown apartments.

    I would imagine that all new buildings provide promotions at first to fill them up, because the alternative would be to set the rent lower to fill faster, and that would have long-term revenue consequences. So the issue isn’t so much that they are, but more how much more are they providing now than a year ago, two years ago, etc. Maybe I missed that in the article.

    If you want to focus on this sort of thing it would probably be better to focus on such promotions by mature buildings. They mentioned one in Kent providing a $1,000 gift card. I doubt that has been a standard practice, so that is interesting.

    Returning to the new rentals, it would be interesting to know if certain types of units are more likely to remain vacant–if maybe the builders are building the wrong thing!

  90. 340
    Doug says:

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 333 – Amazon loses money?

  91. 341
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Erik @ 336 – This complex is not even built yet. It ‘converted’ upon breaking ground last week.

  92. 342
    David V. says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 322 – You left “Deep State” out of your latest word salad. Please try not to be so remiss in the future.

  93. 343

    By wreckingbull @ 340:

    RE: Erik @ 336 – This complex is not even built yet. It ‘converted’ upon breaking ground last week.

    And it was going to first go up in 2006. Hopefully it is not some sort of a leading indicator of something bad going to occur, like Cramer promoting a stock. (Sorry I couldn’t think of a more current reference.)

  94. 344

    RE: pedaltothemetal @ 321 – The King County Council requested survey input from me a couple days ago…I told ’em get high paid Boeing Manufacturing Engineering back from Japan….and get rid of Microsoft and Amazon turning our highways into overpopulated parking lots for burger flipper type pay…LOL

    Fair Trade not NWO Free Trade against Seattle workers wages….MSGA [Make Seattle Great Again]

  95. 345

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 337
    Small Car Drivers Get Bad Mileage Too

    I see Honda products in the 22 MPG average range, etc, etc

    How many miles per year did you put on your Prius? 40,000? LOL

    I drive about 6,000 miles/yr…high mileage use adds up to massive carbon footprint…my car use does not.

  96. 346

    RE: Erik @ 336
    Yes Erik

    And there’s a risk holding on to a Condo too long will cause it to convert to apartments anyway….they all do eventually anyway. You know this happens…especially as they deteriorate. Sell before that happens.

  97. 347

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 341
    LOL Kary

    I bet Cramer is hitting the Jack Daniels in big gulps lately ;-)

  98. 348
    uwp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 337:

    Returning to the topic of real estate, this reminds me a bit of people who mock those who buy the small, by today’s standards, houses in Ballard. Some people actually like that style of house, and wouldn’t be caught dead in a 2,500+ square foot modern house.

    I don’t recall the specifics, but in the last 40 years average house size has gone up by ~50% while household size has dropped by ~20%

    We have 1,500sq/ft total and basically don’t use the finished basement (400ish). I do wish we had a bigger garage though… :)

  99. 349

    Seattle Real Estate to be Shocked With Civil War II Possibility Now?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/06/25/steve-king-america-civil-war/733226002/

    If I was a betting man this does not mean higher Seattle prices, just the opposite.

  100. 350

    RE: uwp @ 346 – When I was a kid the family across the street had something like six kids, so eight people in a 1,900 square foot 2 bathroom house. And the husband was a doctor! Presumably they could have afforded a larger house, but didn’t see the need.

  101. 351
    uwp says:

    By Doug @ 336:

    Seattle leads the nation (again) in April — up 2.69%.

    Since Doug wasn’t clear, this is the new Case-Shiller numbers out for April.
    https://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-seattle-home-price-nsa-index

    I’m going to guess they peak here in the next couple months as things seem to have cooled down from the February-March insanity (it’s also a pretty normal seasonal cycle). Then in the Fall we’ll have a better idea of how inventory and demand shape up for the coming year.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the 800k range for median is hard to rise above. With the interest rate change and property tax jump the past year, you start getting beyond affordable for dual-income Seattleites (125k-150k).

    700k with a 3.5% rate and $5,500 tax bill is ~$3,000/month.
    800k with a 5% rate and a $7,000 tax bill is ~$4,100/month.
    (that’s giving both the benefit of 20% down)

    Gonna need more AMZN stock to make it work.

    Also, with rent at least stabilizing (if not dropping), the pressure to stretch into a house is somewhat relieved.

  102. 352
    Jake says:

    The recession is definitely close.

  103. 353
    Doug says:

    RE: Jake @ 352 – Close is a relative term. Tomorrow? No. 2 years from now? Maybe.

    Yield curve is still sloping upwards. Wait until it isn’t before being worried.

  104. 354
    Doug says:

    RE: uwp @ 351 – Agreed on cyclical timing for near term peak.

    I’m curious to know where the marginal buyer is coming from at these levels, but can promise you they are still out there in force.

    I have a friend looking in the $1mm to $1.3mm range and is continually getting crushed by competing offers. Most recently he offered $200k over an ask somewhere in that range and was competing with 18 total offers, ultimately losing out by $100k over his offer.

    The question you have to ask yourself is, “is Seattle now a tier 1 city?” If it is, then these prices are still relatively cheap versus competing tier 1s. If we’re not a tier 1 city, then yeah, probably getting a little bubbly.

    I recently saw the Seattle area is the 4th largest economy by city in the country. Is that tier 1?

  105. 355
    Jake says:

    RE: Doug @ 353

    Fortunately in my line of work recessions are actually good for business, so I’m not personally worried. However, I do feel bad for most people who will be affected because I think we are in for a word of hurt, unfortunately.

  106. 356
    David says:

    RE: Jake @ 355 – The recession was ‘close’ 2 years ago. Remember when Trump was going to cause a recession?

  107. 357
    David says:

    Both Redfin and Seattle Times indicate the housing market in Seattle (metro?) are still rising FAST. Articles are front page today.

  108. 358
    pfft says:

    By Minnie @ 335:

    RE: pfft @ 329

    “My original point is that I think sidewalks provide a good clue about how your government is run.”

    I still don’t see your original point. Have you heard of Woonerf streets? They are streets with no sidewalks, they are meant to be shared and they are most prevalent in Europe.

    Using your example of a roadway that is 50mph (a highway), then yes I’d prefer not to have that in my neighborhood in general, but on a neighborhood street or minor collector that’s a different story.

    I could go on. I think you yourself have a personal preference for sidewalks but that’s different than assessing the quality of a local government based on the rhetoric that there “aren’t any sidewalks”, when you really don’t know much about this topic.

    how will kids walk to school or to the store? how will people w/o cars get to work? if your local government can’t move people around, which is one of the most important things, how to you think they run the rest of the government.

    no sidewalks might also mean you live a car-dependent locale.

  109. 359
    pfft says:

    By David V. @ 342:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 322 – You left “Deep State” out of your latest word salad. Please try not to be so remiss in the future.

    LOL.

  110. 360
    pfft says:

    By Doug @ 353:

    RE: Jake @ 352 – Close is a relative term. Tomorrow? No. 2 years from now? Maybe.

    Yield curve is still sloping upwards. Wait until it isn’t before being worried.

    agreed.

  111. 361
    pfft says:

    By David @ 356:

    RE: Jake @ 355 – The recession was ‘close’ 2 years ago. Remember when Trump was going to cause a recession?

    Trump predicts ‘massive’ recession
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/work/trump-predicts-massive-recession/news-story/7918976fc2dd4bb313ac72d68065a5ed

  112. 362
    Sid says:

    By Doug @ 354:

    RE: uwp @ 351

    The question you have to ask yourself is, “is Seattle now a tier 1 city?”
    ………

    Yes

  113. 363
    uwp says:

    By pfft @ 361:

    Trump predicts ‘massive’ recession
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/work/trump-predicts-massive-recession/news-story/7918976fc2dd4bb313ac72d68065a5ed

    “We’re not at five per cent unemployment,” Trump said.

    “We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” he said, adding that the official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good”.

    What a wild time 2016 was.

  114. 364

    RE: uwp @ 363 – Trump likes those numbers now and also now sees more use for executive orders now than before becoming President. He’s turning out to be similar to Obama in that regard. Maybe that’s not too surprising given his personality.

  115. 365
    ess says:

    By David @ 357:

    Both Redfin and Seattle Times indicate the housing market in Seattle (metro?) are still rising FAST. Articles are front page today.

    I saw the ST article. The most interesting thing about that article is that SF has the third highest YOY prices of cities covered by the research. Conventional wisdom would indicate that stratospheric prices would put a damper on prices in the Bay area, but perhaps conventional wisdom isn’t so wise.

  116. 366
    pfft says:

    By uwp @ 363:

    By pfft @ 361:

    Trump predicts ‘massive’ recession
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/work/trump-predicts-massive-recession/news-story/7918976fc2dd4bb313ac72d68065a5ed

    “We’re not at five per cent unemployment,” Trump said.

    “We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” he said, adding that the official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good”.

    What a wild time 2016 was.

    remember 80 million unemployed?

    kary, when it comes to politics and policy you are ALWAYS wrong. You said immigration was easy to pass. nobody who knows anything about politics would say that. How will you backtrack?

    Trump is on pace to sign more executive orders than any president in the last 50 years
    https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/13/politics/donald-trump-executive-orders/index.html

    “Obama goes around signing executive orders,” Trump said in February 2016. “He can’t even get along with the Democrats. He goes around signing all these executive orders. It’s a basic disaster. You can’t do it.”

    Obama issued fewer executive orders on average than any president since Cleveland
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/23/obama-executive-orders/

    Kary I found those articles in less than a minute of googling. do better especially when you say I know nothing…

  117. 367
    sfrz says:

    RE: ess @ 365 – From TheHousingBubbleBlog:
    Comment by Ben Jones
    2018-06-26 08:21:59
    ‘40 percent of all brand-new units across the region are sitting empty — that works out to about 5,000 units that have never been lived in…About 10,000 additional units across King and Snohomish counties are sitting empty at buildings that aren’t brand new, largely because of regular turnover. A stunning 26 percent of all apartments in the core of downtown Seattle right now are empty, up from just 5 percent a year prior’

    That’s some shortage! Of course, this “quickly” happened says the Seattle Times, when we’ve been watching it unfold for years. The problem with believing your own propaganda is somebody ends up fooked.

  118. 368
    David says:

    RE: sfrz @ 366 – I would much rather put money into a house than blow it on an apartment. $2,500/month now? Crazy town – buy a house. Even an old beater is better than that.

  119. 369
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: David @ 357

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattles-nation-leading-streak-in-home-price-increases-now-tied-for-2nd-longest-on-record/

    Case Shiller is based on relatively old data. They do an in-depth analysis of past data, not a surface view of very recent data that might be useful for looking ahead. This data set is from April, and we are coming up on July. Things have really changed quite a bit since April which was, I think, the end of the previous trajectory before the curve flattened out.

    My view is that the market is now in a period of adjustment that is more than the normal end of spring market vacuum.

    Things are still moving well at the bottom of the market, but middle and high-end listings are taking more time, more effort and more reasonable pricing to get sold. Sellers in those segments who tried to continue to aggressively forward-price listings for so-so product are feeling pretty lonely at their open houses.

    By any reasonable standard, it is still a seller’s market, but it is just a more balanced seller’s market than it was only a few months ago in April.

  120. 370
    Matt P says:

    RE: David @ 367 – $2500 only get’s you around $400k of house. What can you actually get for $400k? Much better to rent than buy right now.

  121. 371
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 341
    Right. Let me explain to you why Seattle is building apartments and not condos.

    Condos aren’t being built in Seattle because hoa’s sue builders when a condo is built. Builders know about this and charge higher prices to build condos than apartments. So it’s not that investors are too dumb to build condos, it’s much cheaper for them to build an apartment complex and wait 7 years and convert it to a condo.

    I suspect this condominium building will eventually get sued since it was initially a condominium and not an apartment. Litigation takes years. During litigation, Fannie and Freddie won’t lend to people that want to buy a condominium in that building, so only all cash buyers can buy there. This drives prices down. So yeah, this building will get sued at some point and the value of each individual condo will go down temporarily.

  122. 372
    Erik says:

    RE: Sid @ 362
    I’d like to see an analysis from the Tim. Seems like we are tier 1 though based on foreign investment in Seattle.

  123. 373
    Erik says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 346
    It is a concern, but I am only going to sell when the profits will pay off another condo. My greed could mean I miss out, but that’s the plan. I want positive cash flow. I’m looking at selling the first one in 2020 so I can pay off a condo. If I can’t pay it off with the proceeds, I’ll wait. Holding condos longer isn’t painful. Worst case scenario, it takes me 5 years until I own a deed. 2 years if the market keeps going up. Own 5 condos in Seattle, then retire.

  124. 374
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Erik @ 371 – By Erik @ 370:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 341
    Right. Let me explain to you why Seattle is building apartments and not condos.

    Uh, OK, although that link I provided was a developer building a condo instead of an apartment.

    Yes – condo quality is a huge issue in Seattle, which is why I would never touch one with a ten foot pole. Since most other cities don’t have such a problem, I think it is a combination of hasty building during typical Seattle boom cycles and our wet weather.

    I fully agree with your take. If you want to live in a condo, be ready for lawsuits and special assessments. None of this changes the fact that market conditions will cause another condo conversion wave. I have seen this wave hit Seattle twice in my lifetime, and I am certain it will hit again.

  125. 375

    RE: pfft @ 359
    Hey Strokz [sp?] Goes to Phase One Hearing Today for Deep State Involvement

    I hear is step 1 to Grand Jury and public hearings later…the DNC agency moles are being exposed…Comey’s leaks…court ordered documentation stone walling by DOJ [its embarrassing]?

    Ohhh….Maxine may face 5 year prison term for inciting harassment on GOP…a new bill to shut her up went to Congress today…big day for the swamp gators….LOL

    The courts in San Diego ordered no more foreign invasion family separating…LOL…where’s the5000 judges needed to do the 100,000 border invasion caseload backup? The tooth fairy?

  126. 376

    By Deerhawke @ 368:

    By any reasonable standard, it is still a seller’s market, but it is just a more balanced seller’s market than it was only a few months ago in April.

    As I said maybe two years ago, Olympia at the time was a seller’s market, but it had about 2 months supply of active listings. That was a much more comfortable market for buyers. Agents could actually preview properties, show their clients the properties a few days later, and the buyer would still have a day or two to contemplate their choices. So it doesn’t take much of a change in inventory to be “more balanced” than what we had.

  127. 377

    By Matt P @ 369:

    RE: David @ 367 – $2500 only get’s you around $400k of house. What can you actually get for $400k? Much better to rent than buy right now.

    It depends on where you want to buy! Not everyone wants to live in the urban mess that is Seattle and some of the larger suburbs. Some people actually like to live near a forest, and on a lot that is bigger than 4,000 square feet which doesn’t abut a four-lane road with stoplights and busses.

  128. 378

    RE: Erik @ 370 – You’re likely just falling for propoganda from an industry that wants to have protective legislation enacted. The solution to not being sued is to not build crappy buildings! That the legislature doesn’t protect the builders of crappy buildings is refreshing.

  129. 379
    wreckingbull says:

    By Erik @ 372:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 346
    I want positive cash flow.

    Always hard to call a bubble a bubble, but consider dropping your threatcon a level when you hear things like this. Speculation over returns is never a good indicator.

    It hath been foretold:

    https://books.google.com/books/about/Manias_Panics_and_Crashes.html?id=nBb-xYi9O-sC

  130. 380
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 376:

    By Matt P @ 369:

    RE: David @ 367 – $2500 only get’s you around $400k of house. What can you actually get for $400k? Much better to rent than buy right now.

    It depends on where you want to buy! Not everyone wants to live in the urban mess that is Seattle and some of the larger suburbs. Some people actually like to live near a forest, and on a lot that is bigger than 4,000 square feet which doesn’t abut a four-lane road with stoplights and busses.

    Every time we drive into north Seattle, I am always impressed with the houses that are on the corner of two major intersections. Traffic, including buses roaring past one’s windows all the time, and some of those single family houses are right on top of the street. Other than being in Seattle, I for one don’t see the advantage of living in an expensive single family house on a busy street corner. But those houses are not for sale, have occupants, and as they say in France, viva la difference!

  131. 381
    uwp says:

    By ess @ 379:

    Every time we drive into north Seattle, I am always impressed with the houses that are on the corner of two major intersections. Traffic, including buses roaring past one’s windows all the time, and some of those single family houses are right on top of the street. Other than being in Seattle, I for one don’t see the advantage of living in an expensive single family house on a busy street corner. But those houses are not for sale, have occupants, and as they say in France, viva la difference!

    Time + Money of a commute.

    30 minutes on a bus vs an hour in a car is a big deal.
    Roughly 250 hours a year and probably $1,000 in gas savings (employer provided bus pass).
    Not to mention wear and tear on your car plus reading/work you can do on the commute.

    City-dwellers probably wonder why people spend hours of their free-time maintaining their .5 acre yard on a precious weekend. “Viva la difference!”

  132. 382
    N says:

    San Francisco Restaurants Can’t Afford Waiters. So They’re Putting Diners to Work.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/dining/san-francisco-restaurants-service.html

    Restaurateurs here have taken a model familiar to taquerias and fast-casual, cafeteria-style places like Sweetgreen and Chipotle Mexican Grill, and pushed it further up the fine-dining food chain. Call it fast-fine, they suggest, or fine-casual. Or counter service “in a full service environment” that includes $11 cocktails and $22 pan-roasted salmon.

    So burgers get more expensive as houses do. But even wealthy tech workers will pay only so much to eat one. “If we were to pay what we need to pay people to make a living in San Francisco, a $10 hamburger would be a $20 hamburger, and it wouldn’t make sense anymore,” said Anjan Mitra, who owns two high-end Indian restaurants in the city, both named Dosa. “Something has to give.”

  133. 383
    David says:

    Um, a friend of mine was on public transport reading a book when a guy walked up, unzipped, and laid his wang right down the middle of her book.

    That might happen in your car but for better reasons than some herpes-ridden stranger doing it sua sponte.

    She solved the problem by turning the page.

    By uwp @ 381:

    By ess @ 379:

    Every time we drive into north Seattle, I am always impressed with the houses that are on the corner of two major intersections. Traffic, including buses roaring past one’s windows all the time, and some of those single family houses are right on top of the street. Other than being in Seattle, I for one don’t see the advantage of living in an expensive single family house on a busy street corner. But those houses are not for sale, have occupants, and as they say in France, viva la difference!

    Time + Money of a commute.

    30 minutes on a bus vs an hour in a car is a big deal.
    Roughly 250 hours a year and probably $1,000 in gas savings (employer provided bus pass).
    Not to mention wear and tear on your car plus reading/work you can do on the commute.

    City-dwellers probably wonder why people spend hours of their free-time maintaining their .5 acre yard on a precious weekend. “Viva la difference!”

  134. 384
    ess says:

    By uwp @ 381:

    By ess @ 379:

    Every time we drive into north Seattle, I am always impressed with the houses that are on the corner of two major intersections. Traffic, including buses roaring past one’s windows all the time, and some of those single family houses are right on top of the street. Other than being in Seattle, I for one don’t see the advantage of living in an expensive single family house on a busy street corner. But those houses are not for sale, have occupants, and as they say in France, viva la difference!

    Time + Money of a commute.

    30 minutes on a bus vs an hour in a car is a big deal.
    Roughly 250 hours a year and probably $1,000 in gas savings (employer provided bus pass).
    Not to mention wear and tear on your car plus reading/work you can do on the commute.

    City-dwellers probably wonder why people spend hours of their free-time maintaining their .5 acre yard on a precious weekend. “Viva la difference!”

    Equally a big deal is the lower payments and taxes for a house. One can purchase the same size house for half the price 8-12 miles north or south of Seattle. THAT is a really big deal – especially over time. And more and more jobs are not in downtown Seattle – so often the savings in commuting are not even realized.

  135. 385
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 378

    Said a lawyer…

    Interesting statistic. All– that is 100% — of the builders who built condos with condo insurance in King County between 1998 and 2007 were sued. Including those that had world class envelope consultants monitoring every element of construction.

    Virtuous lawyers to the rescue!

    But amazingly, those same virtuous law firms did not find reason to send registered warning letters to condo owners that had been converted after being apartments for six or more years.

    And similarly those same virtuous law firms did not find reason to send registered warning letters to new condo owners where the condo had been built all cash (generally by a foreign entity) without condo insurance.

    Only a wag would conclude that where there was no possibility of recovery there were no leaks discovered.

    This is actually best explained by the laws of fluid dynamics in our area. If your building has condo insurance, your building will absolutely leak. If your building does not have condo insurance, your building will not leak.

    It is simple. Condo insurance causes leaks.

  136. 386

    RE: ess @ 384 – For me the biggest factor is just the enjoyment of the property during your non-working hours.

    We used to live on a fairly busy street in Seattle, now we live on a cul-de-sac in Renton overlooking a golf course and woods on the other side of the course. Since moving we have not gone to my mom’s vacation property in Kitsap County for an overnight stay more than once, because it’s not really necessary. It’s no more relaxing there than at home. So that’s a 365 day a year thing, minus vacation time.

  137. 387

    By Deerhawke @ 385:

    Interesting statistic. All– that is 100% — of the builders who built condos with condo insurance in King County between 1998 and 2007 were sued. Including those that had world class envelope consultants monitoring every element of construction.

    I really doubt that’s true, unless maybe we’re dealing with a very small number of builders (2-3) and/or they were all dealing with some novel building envelope system that didn’t work out. I hate to sound like pfft, but link please! ;-)

  138. 388
    David says:

    I can believe what Deerhawke said. Remember mold litigation, I was onboard with that – won quite a lot of money filing those suits. Insurance covered it and there was serious hype about it. Then the insurance companies figured out proper exclusions clauses and scientific experts began admitting that black mold wasn’t going to kill 99.9999~% of us and POOF – it went away. Well, except as evidence of decay in construction defect cases.

    The capillary action of a pool of lawyers sitting on a crack filled with money is amazingly efficient. Also, when a plaintiff finds out about the $2M policy – Vegas mentality sets in. Make sure you write your representation contract with a pre-determined settlement amount because THAT client will ruin your life chasing millionaire status over a case of allergic sniffles.

    I kind of felt guilty about the aggressive way I went after some of those cases – but not enough to give the money back. Though it was eye-opening to realize what whores some scientific experts are.

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 387 – Um, a friend of mine was on public transport reading a book when a guy walked up, unzipped, and laid his wang right down the middle of her book.

    That might happen in your car but for better reasons than some herpes-ridden stranger doing it sua sponte.

    She solved the problem by turning the page.

    By uwp @ 381:

    By ess @ 379:

    Every time we drive into north Seattle, I am always impressed with the houses that are on the corner of two major intersections. Traffic, including buses roaring past one’s windows all the time, and some of those single family houses are right on top of the street. Other than being in Seattle, I for one don’t see the advantage of living in an expensive single family house on a busy street corner. But those houses are not for sale, have occupants, and as they say in France, viva la difference!

    Time + Money of a commute.

    30 minutes on a bus vs an hour in a car is a big deal.
    Roughly 250 hours a year and probably $1,000 in gas savings (employer provided bus pass).
    Not to mention wear and tear on your car plus reading/work you can do on the commute.

    City-dwellers probably wonder why people spend hours of their free-time maintaining their .5 acre yard on a precious weekend. “Viva la difference!”

  139. 389
  140. 390

    RE: David @ 388
    My TIME is worth $4/hr to ride the bus….

    Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter….practically no one rides the bus or bikes…almost all are hypocrites and drive their car anyway…admit it.

  141. 391

    RE: Scotsman @ 389
    Mortgage Interest Rate Hikes in 2018 Mean One Thing in My 140 Unit HOA

    Its almost July and zero open houses out of 140 units still here today and last month….horrifying. If I were a bank I’d wait until 2019 to finalize mortgage escrow too at like 5-6% rates? Why lock in 3-4% now? I love high interest rates, I’m debt free now….you should be too IMO….if you can…but 2018 Summer loan qualification is becoming a Rubik’s Cube to solve, almost impossible?

  142. 392
    uwp says:

    By softwarengineer @ 390:

    RE: David @ 388
    My TIME is worth $4/hr to ride the bus….

    Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter….practically no one rides the bus or bikes…almost all are hypocrites and drive their car anyway…admit it.

    “Greater Seattle area leads the nation in transit ridership growth”
    https://kingcounty.gov/elected/executive/constantine/news/release/2018/February/21-metro-ridership.aspx

  143. 393

    The American Civil War II Likelihood Poll Numbers are Up This Week

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2018/31_think_u_s_civil_war_likely_soon

    31% and that’s the group polled who voted “likely” and “soon”, at a theater near you.

  144. 394

    RE: uwp @ 392
    From O.1% to 0.11%

    10% growth of practically nothing….LOL….remember, I’m a math major.

  145. 395

    Most Americans Want the WALL Now

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/poll-59-fear-violence-from-trump-haters-31-predict-civil-war

    And I get nothing but compliments when I wear my “Drain the Swamp” and Pro “Border Patrol” tee shirts….perhaps the Open Border Party is likely shrinking in the Seattle area or more likely, the people are just plain fed up with Open Border Party harassment….59% fear the Open Border Harassment. Or…..we’re more civil in Seattle?

  146. 396
    pfft says:

    Back to sidewalks. Have you noticed more people who are walking and dressed like hi-liters and lighthouses? And carrying those flashing red lights too. I’ve noticed a lot of people don’t even look when the step off the sidewalk. What a crazy world.

    Sorry for the interruption, back to the ravings of SWE

    :)

  147. 397
    Matt P says:

    By softwarengineer @ 390:

    RE: David @ 388
    My TIME is worth $4/hr to ride the bus….

    Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter….practically no one rides the bus or bikes…almost all are hypocrites and drive their car anyway…admit it.

    RE: softwarengineer @ 390

    I ride the bus to work every day from Redmond into downtown Seattle. I live out here because my wife works on the east side. Work pays for my Orca card, so why should I waste gas and shorten my life sitting in traffic, when I can get there in about the same amount of time and get plenty of time to read too? Commute is an hour each way when factoring in the walking, good for staying in shape too.

  148. 398
    pfft says:

    By Matt P @ 397:

    By softwarengineer @ 390:

    RE: David @ 388
    My TIME is worth $4/hr to ride the bus….

    Now I’m rolling on the ground in laughter….practically no one rides the bus or bikes…almost all are hypocrites and drive their car anyway…admit it.

    RE: softwarengineer @ 390

    I ride the bus to work every day from Redmond into downtown Seattle. I live out here because my wife works on the east side. Work pays for my Orca card, so why should I waste gas and shorten my life sitting in traffic, when I can get there in about the same amount of time and get plenty of time to read too? Commute is an hour each way when factoring in the walking, good for staying in shape too.

    I have to remind myself that often the truth is the opposite of what is posted here. Maybe the numbers are different for SEA bubblers but not for the general public.

    Commuting by bus is by far the most popular mode of transit,at 36.9 percent, and train/light rail/streetcar is third at 9 percent.

    7% walked and 3% rode a bike.

    Seattle Is Using Public Transit More Than Ever
    http://seattlebusinessmag.com/seattle-using-public-transit-more-ever

    How Your Work Commute Can Help You Live Longer
    http://time.com/4748377/commute-biking-walking-longevity/

    If you want a great book on how to live longer I recommend “Blue Zones” about pockets of the world where an abnormally large amount of live to be 100+.

    I am kind of a hypocrite though I commute by private jet to work…or helicopter if I am nearby. Sometimes I just stay on my yacht.

  149. 399
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 387
    I just remember there were lots of condos being offered at low prices that were cash only because the builder was being sued and banks wouldn’t lend before the last bubble. Maybe you weren’t paying attention back then because you had a different profession?

  150. 400
    Erik says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 389
    I don’t think Seattle will be as high as the Bay Area because we don’t have the land restrictions that they do. I could be wrong, but that’s my opinion. Seattle can build 1000’s of apartment buildings and convert them to condos. Bay Area cannot. If you have a different view, I’d love to hear it.

  151. 401
    S-Crow says:

    Snohomish County Tax bills were just received in the mail for 2019. Up, up, up.

    Implications for older generation homeowners in the short term:

    They are going to have issues if sole income is Social Security coupled with or without small pensions. If the senior segment of the market have little or no immediate family to help around the home with escalating labor/materials costs for maintenance combined with property tax hikes that have skyrocketed then they have two choices with equity: sell or consider a reverse mortgage (which I’m not convinced is financially sound depending upon the situation).

    Observations from the trenches: A 30 yr old manufactured home selling for $16,900 in 2013 selling today at $105,000 is shocking. Nice for sellers exiting. Lenders lending into this sub market are asking for trouble–even for those with 20-30% down.

  152. 402

    By pfft @ 396:

    Back to sidewalks. Have you noticed more people who are walking and dressed like hi-liters

    Hey, are you stalking me! ;-)

  153. 403
    David says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 395 – I’m watching the Donald Trump Rally in North Dakota. I think Trump will get his Wall. Trump is making America great again. Winning constantly at the SCOTUS level. He is about to swing SCOTUS FAAAR to the Right.

    Trump can summon a huge crowd with a simple email. He is EPIC!

    Obama had a gay lover. Trump had a porn-star lover (female). Trump’s golf swing was manly. Obama’s like a debutante flittering his lashes at some guy dressed like a douchebag.

    Maybe they will pass a law that says if you live past 100 that you can run for two more terms. Trump:2020, 2050, 2054.

  154. 404
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 401:

    By pfft @ 396:

    Back to sidewalks. Have you noticed more people who are walking and dressed like hi-liters

    Hey, are you stalking me! ;-)

    I get it though. some people don’t care. Somebody rode up on the sidewalk to hit Chris Froome.

  155. 405
  156. 406
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 404 – Amazing = 60% Democrats came out to see the Trumpster.

    I read today that Wall Street economists are predicting perhaps 5.3% GDP.

  157. 407
    wreckingbull says:

    Nothing like bathing in a galvanized horse trough….with wood walls of course.

    https://ssl.cdn-redfin.com/photo/1/bigphoto/873/1318873_10_1.jpg

  158. 408

    Apparently it’s not most people’s dream to live on a busy street in Seattle, or even in Seattle.

    https://www.treehugger.com/green-architecture/what-do-americans-want-their-dream-home.html

    Note, most these dreams are just fantasies though. Good luck finding a new house on a large lot. They exist, but they are not common.

  159. 409
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 387

    I don’t have a link on the condo insurance. I spent the time and did the research myself.

    From 2010 to 2013, I was one of the founders of a very well financed in-city development/build start-up. Someone else’s money and my knowledge/connections. Once we got a machine started to build townhouses and rowhouses, I found that some of the prime denser-zoned lots we had tied up (mainly old gas station lots undergoing remediation) would work perfectly as condo sites. I had a condo-developer friend who was retiring to Hawaii who gave me the lay of the land. He is a really smart guy, but I had a hard time believing the pessimistic picture he painted. He set up lunches and introduced me to leading condo insurance brokers, law firms, and other developers. Same received wisdom from all of them. They all said 100% of the condos built in the area were sued no matter how good the builder, no matter how much they had spent on envelope protection, monitoring and consultants.

    The only exceptions:

    – Under 6 units (transaction costs too high, payout too low, developer usually owned 1-2 units)
    – Condo conversions built more than 6 years previously (already past the 6 year recovery period)
    – Self-financed projects that did not have condo insurance (there was only one)

    I even got one of the real condo-envelope-liability sharks in town to come to a lunch with me at Jaks. I asked him how he would build condos to avoid being sued. His answer, ” If you build it, we will come.” I asked what he would do if we there were no condo insurance. He was flummoxed. Well of course you need condo insurance, otherwise you won’t get bank financing. I laid out the case for him. Foreign ownership, 100% equity (most of it foreign), no debt, no liability insurance.

    He said that wouldn’t be any fun at all.

    We were American owned and had US-based financing. Our major backer said he did not want to tie up all of his equity in one or two projects. So the idea died and we built those projects with condo quality and condo envelope consultants/monitoring but they were rental apartments. The idea was to keep them for 6 years and then convert them.

    One other interesting bit of information I came upon. You want condo liability insurance? Not completely unavailable. But a $1 million policy (which has an exclusion for the envelope by the way) costs… $1 million.

  160. 410
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 408 – Based on your research, what percentage of those 100% sued had legitimate building envelope problems?

  161. 411

    RE: wreckingbull @ 409 – Back in 2007 or so I was commenting on how many recently built Snohomish County condos were having their vinyl siding replaced. Installing vinyl siding is probably a piece of cake compared to the exterior of a high rise structure. If contractors can’t get that right they clearly are not doing a very good job.

  162. 412

    Seattle City Funds for Real Estate Spending Sanctuary City Face Constricting Budgets?

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jun/27/feds-distributing-grant-money-non-sanctuary-cities/

    Follow the money trail. Sounds like no Trump present under the Christmas tree for Seattle, because its a Sanctuary City.

  163. 413
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 410 – Our region’s low-rise condos are typically built using residential construction techniques (i.e. stick-built). I have often wondered if this is also part of the problem – using a technique which is not appropriate to the type of building.

  164. 414

    RE: wreckingbull @ 412
    You’re Right

    They’re ugly but very cheap and last forever….cement walls instead….I saw huge cement structures go up in days. Contractors cringe….LOL

    Beats the phony wood they use today….makes rot a past problem, but one horrifying problem…would if an earthquake cracks it apart? The high rise cement structures have earthquake base flexibility [springs] to prevent wall disintegration…add this in too. It still sounds much cheaper.

  165. 415
    kenmorem says:

    so when should we expect the wave of apartment-to-condo conversions to start? i’d like to sell my queen anne condo just before that happens.

  166. 416

    RE: wreckingbull @ 412

    Most of the more severe problems have been water intrusion and stucco buildings where the window butts up to the stucco with no window frame. They are also flat roof buildings and the water tends to pool vs drain well. Some of the older flat roof buildings have more severe problems from allowing owners to install after-products like skylights for top units or air conditioning with roof top condensers.

    Historically the claims in the initial claim period were more due to lack of maintenance than builder defects, though most of the time the ruling was against the builder regardless. This problem has reduced due to the time frame of that initial “construction defect” suit period being shortened. I think it used to be 7 or 8 years and is now 3 or so. I can’t seem to find a link for that, but I do remember a rush to get claims in before the reduced number of years became effective. This reduced number of years helped significantly as to the issue of deferred maintenance as less maintenance issues pop up in the shortened time frame.

    The process has not been about bad builders or bad buildings as much as it has been about the right to make a claim. This right induced lawyers to hound HOAs to make a claim, even though no one had any complaints. This manifested into a witch hunt for anything that could possibly be claimed as a defect before the time ran out to file a claim. Owners were implored to go find anything that might remotely be considered a problem and submit that to the Board. Then a big laundry list of possible defects was pushed into a claim against the builder. Large amounts of money spent to legitimize the defect claim. This mostly instigated by lawyers and not owners or HOA’s with actual, realized defect issues.

    So looking for what might cause the defects is really not as relevant as looking for what caused the claim to be made.

    The big list of “problems”, whether legitimate or not, becomes noted in the Minutes and in the Condo Resale Certificate, which hurts those who are trying to sell during this lengthy period. Basically they are urged to bad-mouth themselves and their building in the hopes that they may get some money. But this mud-slinging at the builder more often comes back to bite them in the butt.

    You can’t say you have big problems in order to get money from the builder and at the same time tell prospective buyers that there really are no big problems. So the whole process is really mean spirited and self-destructive, most of the time.

  167. 417

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 415 – That raises a point. The standard condo resale certificate does not contain minutes. A buyer needs to make that request a part of their offer (22d)

  168. 418
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 415 thanks..good info although almost every major condo problem I know of first hand or have read about were not stucco, although I can’t imagine stucco is a good choice for the PNW. I think poor window install techniques and flashing problems is a far greater issue than stucco.

  169. 419
    David says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 417 – It’s NOT stucco. It is artificial stucco known as Dryvit/EIFS. But they have solved the problems with that product now. The way it was designed previously trapped water.

    Supposedly solve the problems. I’d prefer a product I know is not so dependent on installer error.

  170. 420
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 409

    Really hard to say.

    Virtually all buildings built in the Puget Sound area will have some kind of minor envelope problem in the first 6 years. This means you need to replace a window or a door or a panel or a leading edge after a few years. It is a couple hundred to a couple thousand bucks. But according to the lawyers, if you had one problem, you probably had many many more, so you absolutely need to replace the entire envelope… and all windows… and all doors. Under their supervision.

    Obviously, this is BS.

    I would say that anything less than 4 stories built before 2000 was suspect. Probably 50-50 for having significant water intrusion problems. In the 80’s and 90’s we had a lot of builders from Arizona and California come up here. They knew nothing about building here and they were not really committed to the area.

    I would say that anything of that same size built after 2000 was probably OK. If the builder had a good envelope consultant/monitoring firm, almost certainly no problem.

    High rises are a different beast. They are engineered not to ever leak, because wind-driven water is such an enormous issue. They have multiple overlapping envelope systems. I know of one built by a good development company that really did leak though on their southwest corner. But in typical fashion, since it was a condo and there was insurance, they didnt just fix the problem area, they were forced to replace the whole envelope. Not an appropriate level of response– kind of like cutting butter with a chain saw.

    Construction defect lawyers served a real purpose in the 80’s and 90’s. They dealt with real problems in the housing stock built during that time. But once those practices were established they needed more and more money to maintain them while there was less and less actual business that provided social value. At that point, they became worse than useless. They were the driving force that killed off the entire housing ecosystem that they said that they were in business to protect.

  171. 421
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 414

    After the recession, a lot of rental housing was built starting in 2012. It came on line in 2013. With a 6 year liability window on construction defects, the leading edge of the conversions could be as early as next year. However I think it will be after that. I think we will could really start to see a wave of condo conversions in 2020.

  172. 422
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: David @ 418 – I think this conversation is a good example of the problem. Half the people here blame the developer, while the other half blame the attorneys. Like most things in life, I am sure the truth lies in the middle, there are a non-trival number of crap condos and a non-trivial number of bottom-sucking attorneys. Of course the one who pays the price is the person that dropped their life savings and signed up for 30 years of debt payments.

    I find it a rather interesting example of modern-day dysfunction. We can’t build housing for people who need it and are willing to pay for it.

  173. 423

    RE: wreckingbull @ 417

    The ones I have seen with the window issue were stucco and/or “frameless” windows. So when I say “stucco” I am talking about the windows, but there are fewer window issues (as far as I have seen) with wood framed windows.

  174. 424
    pfft says:

    Oh god, don’t get me started on vinyl siding. American architecture sucks. it’s just terrible. so many homes look the same and are just ugly. Is it the development builders that design these things. are architects anywhere to be found? I am for sidewalks and home not looking the same…and no vinyl siding. I hate split level homes.

  175. 425
    pfft says:

    By wreckingbull @ 421:

    RE: David @ 418 – I think this conversation is a good example of the problem. Half the people here blame the developer, while the other half blame the attorneys. Like most things in life, I am sure the truth lies in the middle, there are a non-trival number of crap condos and a non-trivial number of bottom-sucking attorneys. Of course the one who pays the price is the person that dropped their life savings and signed up for 30 years of debt payments.

    I find it a rather interesting example of modern-day dysfunction. We can’t build housing for people who need it and are willing to pay for it.

    I am all for regular people having lawyers. You can bet that the developer and the builder and the corporations have lawyers. Why can’t the regular guy have one? Corporations(think wall street) have demonstrated beyond your wild dreams they can’t be trusted.

    might there be some overreach? sure, but better that than someone screwing over consumers which they will do.

  176. 426
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 419
    the 2006 townhouse we sold a few months back had water damage on the balcony. all 4 units of the townhouse did. poor flashing/membrane design. didn’t see the signs of it until just after the 7 year window. here’s the builder that never responded to my inquiries:
    http://firewalkerhomes.com/about/

  177. 427
    redmondjp says:

    By pfft @ 424:

    By wreckingbull @ 421:

    RE: David @ 418 – I think this conversation is a good example of the problem. Half the people here blame the developer, while the other half blame the attorneys. Like most things in life, I am sure the truth lies in the middle, there are a non-trival number of crap condos and a non-trivial number of bottom-sucking attorneys. Of course the one who pays the price is the person that dropped their life savings and signed up for 30 years of debt payments.

    I find it a rather interesting example of modern-day dysfunction. We can’t build housing for people who need it and are willing to pay for it.

    I am all for regular people having lawyers. You can bet that the developer and the builder and the corporations have lawyers. Why can’t the regular guy have one? Corporations(think wall street) have demonstrated beyond your wild dreams they can’t be trusted.

    might there be some overreach? sure, but better that than someone screwing over consumers which they will do.

    The regular guy can have a lawyer; he/she/it just has to pay for it. And therein lies the problem. The system has been rigged against the little guy, because the big guys have a lot more money and thus can litigate until the little guy drowns in debt. Heck, it even happened to Bill Clinton while he was in the White House (but of course he was made whole shortly thereafter, thank you speaking fees and the family business).

  178. 428

    RE: kenmorem @ 425

    Excellent example. That is something that more often is caused by the unit owner or due to deferred maintenance. Even though some of the elastomeric coatings you can use have a long warranty period, it is a somewhat rubber-like coating that is easily penetrated by a chair or plant stands or other things people put on their balconies. A tiny hole or rip from a patio set will not easily be seen, but will allow water to go under the coating and rot what is underneath before anyone notices that the coating has been penetrated.

    Rarely is that a building defect, but often it is blamed on the builder. Condo Associations rarely check these as often as they should and/or re-coat them as often as they should. I’ll have to check some of the Reserve Studies I have on hand, but I think the time frame you mention is exactly the time frame when they need to be re-done. Not a builder defect. Just time or past time that they need a maintenance work order.

    “Private Use Common Areas” like balconies are often the most neglected parts of any Condo Complex. They are also often the most abused by the unit owners who are not familiar with the care needed for this type of surface.

  179. 429
    sfrz says:

    This puppy’s gonna blow. But- but… buy now or be priced out forever! It’s going to be ugly. Stock up. This is a Fed driven everything bubble. You know the old saying: If you can’t hear, you’re gonna have to feel.

    “Seattle:
    The Seattle metro index spiked 2.5% from the prior month. In terms of points, the index jumped 6.6 points, the biggest monthly jump in the data series. The index has now jumped 13.1% from a year ago and is 31% above the peak of Seattle’s insane Housing Bubble 1 (July 2007).”
    “So the index is getting spiky in a number of metros. But Seattle’s beautiful spike is unequaled in the series. These indices get adjusted over the next few months as more data becomes available, so some of the spikes might get toned down a little. This happened before. ” https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/26/it-gets-spiky-update-on-the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america/

  180. 430
    David says:

    Construction Defects usually appear about year 7.

    I have the reference book on this but it is in the office.

    By kenmorem @ 425:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 419
    the 2006 townhouse we sold a few months back had water damage on the balcony. all 4 units of the townhouse did. poor flashing/membrane design. didn’t see the signs of it until just after the 7 year window. here’s the builder that never responded to my inquiries:
    http://firewalkerhomes.com/about/

  181. 431
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 425

    As I recall, you bought this place dirt cheap, rented it out to tenants (who certainly beat the crap out of it because it wasn’t their property) for quite some time and then made a killing on it. Right?

    And you blame the builder because an elastomeric deck surface which has to be regularly maintained and has a warranty resurface period of 5 years years only lasted for 7? Wow….

    I see this kind of thing all the time. People call me about townhouses I built in 2001. Total of 1780 sf with 3 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. But no paint, no caulk, no new weatherstripping or any substantive maintenance in 17 years. There are plants growing up under the siding and sprouting in the gutters. There is a thick coat of moss on the roof. They are the third owner, but somehow want me to take responsibility for the fact that they have water intrusion issues in their dining room.

    I tell them I would be glad to buy it back for full price– in cash. For some reason they are not very satisfied that I will still honor my money back guarantee and give them back the $289,950 that the first buyer originally paid for it.

    After a little bit of heated discussion, I come to understand that they feel I should have done a much better job in building a $900,000 townhouse. I can’t help but feel that there is some kind of a disconnect between us.

  182. 432
    wreckingbull says:

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 427:

    A tiny hole or rip from a patio set will not easily be seen, but will allow water to go under the coating and rot what is underneath before anyone notices that the coating has been penetrated.


    Not a builder defect. Just time or past time that they need a maintenance work order.

    Listen to what you are saying here. Of course this is not a ‘builder’ defect, but a design defect! We design like this so buildings can go up fast and cheap, and by your own words, you are screwed if you don’t catch a tiny puncture, caused by normal use, which is difficult to even notice. This is not acceptable.

  183. 433

    RE: wreckingbull @ 431 – Dang, that was almost exactly what I was going to say.

    On the other hand, there was that one deck collapse about three years ago where the deck supports were made out of some composite material which only lasted a few years. That was apparently due to the builder substituting material, so it can go either way. Although even there you would think that there would have been someone from the architect/engineering firm periodically checking on the construction.

    http://www.berkeleyside.com/2017/06/02/water-absorbent-material-caused-fatal-balcony-collapse-state-says

    That is not surprising, Perry told Berkeleyside, because the builders used oriented strand board, a much more absorbent alternative to the plywood specified in the design.

    OMG, OSB for a cantilevered balcony support? That is so stupid it’s practially criminal, and I’m hardly one to say something should be criminal just because something bad happens. I can’t imagine what they were thinking.

  184. 434

    RE: S-Crow @ 400
    The Problem is the Property Tax Appraised Value on Factory Modulars Went Up 50% for 2018

    This included other hikes on buildings on your lot, assuming you own it.

    New or old…the structures must be plated in gold? LOL

    Excellent article S-Crow…I agree with you….I did my early retirement planning assuming 0% on my long-term retirement cash. I’m saving more and spending more too since I retired…but have plenty of elbow room [because of my 0% assumption]. Most retirees are trying to live on like $2000/mo gross in Social Security and the under $40,000 limit for reduced senior King County property tax decrease is destroyed if their is a low interest 401K or pension added in…no property tax decrease for retired folks making barely livable incomes over $40K in King County…

    Open House Listing increases will have to rise as more seniors give up on the high priced Seattle area and leave their “paid off” homes? Its the other budget numbers besides mortgage payments that force this poker hand now…

  185. 435

    As long as we’re talking about water and building materials, does anyone have a modern shower door that is well designed and easy to clean? I don’t like any of the Holcam designs. I think what I’m looking for is something with a partial frame (L rather than U) for easy cleaning, and no gaps between pieces of glass or between pieces of glass and the wall. But what I want is to be able to literally throw water at the thing any place I want and have zero water exit the enclosure, while at the same time not having crevices that are difficult to clean.

  186. 436

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 432
    Another Problem With Building Patios and Such in Your Back Yard

    Is these small lots cram utility pipes and wires in less space with no room to slam the hard pan spear into them for post holes and cement pouring….leave it grass…LOL

  187. 437

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 434
    The Plumber Materials They Use Now

    Are all suspect…the shower heads rust in no time [they used to never rust 20-30 years ago] and they slap these cheap plastic bathroom fitters over the damp base board rot in one day installations? A bathroom remodel should always include a 3 week drying out period before resealing in possible mildew. Exterior paint/sealing….same conundrum [especially painting phony exterior wood panels]…

  188. 438

    RE: softwarengineer @ 436 – You’d laugh at my $5 shower head. It’s a low flow/high velosity model, but made entirely of metal and easy to clean. I first saw the model at a pool-side shower and thought–this thing is great!

    Actually, I think I found it–Amazon has it for $14–way too much! ;-) But 75% 5 star reviews.

    https://www.amazon.com/Delta-52650-PK-Single-Spray-Shower-Chrome/dp/B006FYAASC/ref=pd_sbs_60_1?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B006FYAASC&pd_rd_r=84fe2d83-7bb4-11e8-bf3d-090d28e95a86&pd_rd_w=qvAdn&pd_rd_wg=cqpZJ&pf_rd_i=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_p=5825442648805390339&pf_rd_r=PPVD8TNNQFR5D6CGP1VF&pf_rd_s=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_t=40701&psc=1&refRID=PPVD8TNNQFR5D6CGP1VF

  189. 439

    RE: wreckingbull @ 431

    To me it is the same as knowing that you need to put protectors on the bottom of your indoor tables and chairs so as not to make scratches in your hardwood floor. An elastomeric coated balcony tends to give the appearance of being a concrete slab, and people treat it as if it is indestructible.

    One thing I learned over the years, worth mentioning, is that you should re-paint your outside wood a year after new and better yet again another year after that. Talking mostly trim paint here. That 3 coats will then last the full life expectancy of the paint job and not need painting again for the 8 years or so recommended. The original paint job on raw wood is not enough to last the 8 years and requires maintenance each year for two more coats after the property is built.

    People tend to think that buying new means NO maintenance or repair needed for many years. Not the case. If you own a home (or a condo), maintenance is needed every year for one thing or another. Homes are not “once and done”. That maintenance is needed in every year does not mean it was built incorrectly.

    All too often people think that because it required maintenance, and something was destroyed due to lack of maintenance, that it is the builders fault because they think a one year old house should not need maintenance. Far from it. The one year anniversary of a house is likely the time it needs the most maintenance due to settlement. Caulk areas split and need re-caulking. Nail pops and spackling of cracks needs to be addressed. Roofs need to be properly maintained, especially chimney areas, in order for the warranty period to be valid. I don’t mean for the warranty period to be “honored”. I mean for it to make any sense at all, as in with proper care and maintenance it will likely last that long. Not without having to do anything at all.

    But balconies are the number one problem because owners tend to say “that’s the HOA” but “Private Use Common Areas” rarely make it to the ongoing maintenance list because doing so is too intrusive on one’s privacy. Private Use Common Areas need to be maintained by both the owner and the HOA somewhat equally for that reason.

  190. 440
    kenmorem says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 430

    not sure where you or ardell got the idea that there was an elastomeric surface, but that was not the case.

    these balconies are 4’x8′ with a guardrail wall around them. the builder, not the owners, installed prefabbed aluminum railings on top of the cap plate on the guardrail. this allowed water to seep into all of the walls of the guardrail. then, the water went into the deck, joists, and soffits. fortunately, the damage to the actual structure of the house was limited to surface moisture on the OSB sheathing.

    so, don’t give me crap about this being an owner-use issue. sure, the builder itself might have built it per the specs, but if the design is flawed, then that is what needs to be covered by the 7 year window and insurance policies.

    if you build something for someone, and it fails in a year, and you say: “hey, i built it exactly per the drawings” and then walk away, then you’re not helping out the situation. now the owner needs to escalate to the engineer or designer of record. tedious.

    for my particular unit, we basically never used it in the 8 years i lived there aside from sliding open the door for airflow. the rot and water damaged occurred within that 8 years.

    you can’t honestly tell me that if 4 out of 4 places all had the same identical failure and damage, that it was user error.

  191. 441
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 438 – That’s not my point at all. I don’t see anyone here saying maintenance is not needed. Of course it is, and that is why I have always reminded buyers to set aside 1% of a home’s value each year for a maintenance fund.

    What I am saying is that we need to rethink the way we build these days, so a small fault in the envelope does not lead to catastrophic repair bills. The core design of a building should be the first defense against this, not relying on caulk, membranes, or other short-lived materials as the primary defense.

  192. 442
    David says:

    NO WAY you can beat this shower head. I found this in a high-end cruise ship and started buying them for my house and boat. Water saving and serious power without bulk. Definitely can find a cheaper price if you try.

    https://www.amazon.com/Novolence-2005-Hand-Shower-Chrome-Plated/dp/B00DORFB2I

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 437:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 436 – You’d laugh at my $5 shower head. It’s a low flow/high velosity model, but made entirely of metal and easy to clean. I first saw the model at a pool-side shower and thought–this thing is great!

    Actually, I think I found it–Amazon has it for $14–way too much! ;-) But 75% 5 star reviews.

    https://www.amazon.com/Delta-52650-PK-Single-Spray-Shower-Chrome/dp/B006FYAASC/ref=pd_sbs_60_1?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B006FYAASC&pd_rd_r=84fe2d83-7bb4-11e8-bf3d-090d28e95a86&pd_rd_w=qvAdn&pd_rd_wg=cqpZJ&pf_rd_i=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_p=5825442648805390339&pf_rd_r=PPVD8TNNQFR5D6CGP1VF&pf_rd_s=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_t=40701&psc=1&refRID=PPVD8TNNQFR5D6CGP1VF

  193. 443
    N says:

    That is quite a few new apartment units

    Is This Going to Crush Rents in Seattle?
    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/28/is-this-going-to-crush-rents-in-seattle/

    This makes for a total of 60,000 apartment units, planned or under construction, just in buildings with more than 50 units, according to the Q2 report by multifamily property data provider Apartment Insights.

  194. 444
    redmondjp says:

    Loving the discussion here about building envelopes, which is so important our damp climate. I’m in full agreement that a minor scrape or gash shouldn’t compromise the entire exterior envelope. What worries me even more are the rash of multistory apartments/condos/hotels that have been built lately using 100% OSB and glueboards. If I were king, these materials would be banned from commercial and multifamily construction altogether. I can’t see these buildings lasting longer than 25-30 years tops.

    Related to building/exterior maintenance, I have been monitoring the homes built down the street from me in 2001, watching them decay and rot as (from what I can tell) zero maintenance has been done – no cleaning, no recaulking, no repainting, in 17 years! I can’t figure out if this is because software developers don’t know anything about home maintenance, or just don’t know that it needs to be done.

    My house is a rambler, and came with stained cedar siding which is almost completely kept dry by my overhanging eaves. I haven’t done a thing to the siding in the past 20 years. Truth be told, I do have some weathered, cupped boards over the garage door now due to rain exposure. But when two neighbors got their siding replaced, I grabbed all of the good (identical, and hard to duplicate) clear cedar siding boards so I can replace my bad ones when the time comes.

  195. 445
    wreckingbull says:

    By redmondjp @ 443:

    My house is a rambler, and came with stained cedar siding which is almost completely kept dry by my overhanging eaves.

    This is what I mean. Gravity coaxing water in the correction direction should be your #1 defense, and building materials a distant second.

  196. 446

    By redmondjp @ 443:

    Related to building/exterior maintenance, I have been monitoring the homes built down the street from me in 2001, watching them decay and rot as (from what I can tell) zero maintenance has been done – no cleaning, no recaulking, no repainting, in 17 years! I can’t figure out if this is because software developers don’t know anything about home maintenance, or just don’t know that it needs to be done.

    The owners are probably general contractors! ;-)

    Sort of a “the Cobbler’s children” sort of thing.

  197. 447

    By wreckingbull @ 444:

    This is what I mean. Gravity coaxing water in the correction direction should be your #1 defense, and building materials a distant second.

    This is somewhat related to that, but you need to get to the end.

    When we were looking for houses I was trying to avoid ones with torch down gutters, but guess what? That’s exactly what we bought. I’ve come to love them, although that did require replacing the 2″ downspouts with 3″ downspouts. But the nice thing about them is that you can easily clean them out with a blower without even getting too close to the edge.

    Now the relevant part. My house does not have enclosed soffits. That means that if there is a leak I’ll be able to notice it right away, rather than after the leak has caused significant damage. Torch down gutters with enclosed soffits are a bad combination because you have the solid barrier under the gutter! I see a lot of houses where there is significant evidence of leaking on the soffit cover (or whatever it’s called). When you see that you really don’t know what’s underneath (or actually what’s above).

  198. 448

    One more gravity thing. Lots of painters don’t understand gravity, water and caulking. The worst situation I’ve seen though (not by damage, but by stupidity) was caulking where the bottom back part of the gutter meets the facia board. Any water that gets behind the gutter literally has no place to go, except between the wood and the new paint. I don’t even know what they were thinking–that the area they caulked was otherwise unsightly?

  199. 449

    RE: wreckingbull @ 440

    Why “these days” more so than any other time in history? Because people don’t know how to maintain their homes?

    I have never seen a building that didn’t rely on caulk and replacement of caulk in some places both as to interior and exterior.

    Homes really don’t just take care of themselves. What we do have often are people who don’t have a handy Dad or Uncle who comes around to help them know what needs to be done and how to do it. People sometimes ask me why some real estate ads say “Pride of Ownership abounds…” That’s not about new kitchens or things a flipper will do. It’s about an owner who understands how lack of maintenance can destroy a house.

    All too often people buy based on aesthetics vs a well maintained home. An ugly but well maintained home is often the better choice.

  200. 450
    sfrz says:

    RE: N @ 442 – This is a crime scene and needs to be cordoned off with crime tape. Money laundering, EB 5 money and the Central Bank raining money on bad investments- that’s a crime scene, which calls for government intervention. Oh wait. I think the government is already there. Hold your nose and put on your life jacket. Iceberg straight ahead sir.

  201. 451

    RE: kenmorem @ 439

    In the 8 years you lived there you should have clear caulked those fittings whether you used the balcony or not. That particular design works better in CA than here. More like what Deerhawke was referring to earlier about builders coming in from other areas or copying designs from other areas. They work in some places better than in others.

  202. 452
    kenmorem says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 450
    uh, okay. i guess i will toss out my 14 years of structural engineering career and 8 years of construction working on SFH’s then.

  203. 453
    David says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 448 – Caulk should only be used for aesthetic purposes on the exterior. Not to water protect something. If caulk is being used to prevent water intrusion, IT WILL FAIL. Caulk & grout both shrink or pull away 100% of the time. Anything relying on caulk to prevent water intrusion was a bad design from the start.

    In fact, the smaller the crack around the caulk or grout, capillary action will suck water up into the assembly more easily.

  204. 454

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 448:

    I have never seen a building that didn’t rely on caulk and replacement of caulk in some places both as to interior and exterior.

    I’m not going to say this is wrong, but I don’t think it’s right. I’m going back over 50 years though, so beyond my personal recollection.

    I’m pretty sure brick buildings built before WWII didn’t use any caulking. And I don’t think SFR stick-built houses built before 1975 did either on the exterior, with the possible exception of gutter seams, which probably used something else, albeit something close to caulk. Window frames on the older buildings were wood, with the wood designed to flow the water out to the edge of the bricks (and/or the brick was sloped outward). I’m not sure about early aluminum framed windows, but I sort of doubt caulking was involved, but instead flashing was likely used (as it is today with wood framed vinyl).

    But on the interior, think about showers/tubs. That was typically grout, not caulk. Caulk started appearing as an easy fix to damaged/dirty grout, and also probably became necessary when tubs started being made out of flexible fiberglass rather than cast iron.

    Finally, companies like that which makes Hardiplank no longer recommend caulking between the boards. That probably just demonstrates that a system designed to rely on caulking is a poor system.

  205. 455

    RE: Deerhawke @ 430
    Rent May Help With Owner Costs and Mortgage Maybe

    But will renters have enough money for your Seattle area rent? Sure, you say….they can swing 50-60% of their gross pay? And would if the rents have reached saturation point of affordability, then you lower rent to keep the richer tenants from buying instead?

    Questions, questions…I do believe Erik the Flipper has a better plan….live in it yourself, flip, live in it yourself, flip….etc, etc…

  206. 456

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 453
    Yes Kary

    Any home owner quickly discovers cleaning around the tub and toilet dissolves all the calk almost immediately….I use Goop and paint it white every year or two instead.

  207. 457

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 448
    They Should Build New Home Exterior Panels

    With both nails and a seal of all wood exterior seams “water tight” with a good adhesive “like Locktite”, they don’t, they just nail ’em together and paint ’em with a thin coat spray gun…not a brush. No wonder it all rots in no time.

  208. 458

    By softwarengineer @ 456:

    They Should Build New Home Exterior Panels

    Not sure what you mean, but that raises another example. Now houses are often built with 4×8′ panels of whatever that are butted together. Cheap install, but not high quality, and water can easily get into the seams. On top of that when you go above one-story the method to adjoin them is often deficient.

    But back 50+ years they used side shingles. One layer on top of the next, with no seams aligning. Perfect for keeping water out, but very labor intensive to install. Later they moved to slatted boards, which again overlapped the one below with no seams aligned (or even no seams!).

  209. 459
    David says:

    I’m LEED Certified and I have attended seminars by this organization which provides excellent analysis on building envelope design. Personally, I’d adhere to their recommendations. The main scientist is a real hoot too & Canadian. A Canadian who also understands hot and humid climate envelope design:

    https://buildingscience.com/

  210. 460

    Here’s another way of reducing the number of hours for “expensive” employees without going to automation. Make the customer do more.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/san-francisco-restaurants-cant-afford-waiters-so-theyre-putting-diners-to-work/

    Either way, someone who had a job no longer does. But it’s not clear this is caused by a minimum wage increase, as opposed to it just being hard to fill low-end jobs in an expensive city for a “reasonable cost.” The same thing could happen for either reason.

  211. 461
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 451
    Kenmorem is pulling rank on Ardell.

  212. 462
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 459 – Disagree. Corporations are purposely keeping wages down to enrich the top. This economy is a debt economy. Keep the masses poor, and the borrowing and indebtedness continues to enrich the 1%.
    “An economy reliant on debt for its growth causes our interest rate to jump to 28 percent when we are late on a credit card payment. It is why our wages are stagnant or have declined in real terms—if we earned a sustainable income we would not have to borrow money to survive. It is why a university education, houses, medical bills and utilities cost so much. The system is designed so we can never free ourselves from debt.” https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-coming-collapse/

  213. 463

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – Corporations are keeping wages down because they are profit driven. There’s no hidden grand scheme there.

    Wages are staying down because the economy is not nearly as strong as what we’re being told. If it was, wages/earnings would be climbing.

  214. 464

    RE: David @ 458
    I Wouldn’t Depend On Past Process Errors as a History Base

    Think out of the box, Hades, my Gooping of exterior sealing fake wood seam/crack construction [the last 20 years] left with just paint at construction added at least 30 years reliability with hardly any cost or labor…why don’t the new home construction seal fake wood right? LOL….they plan obsolescence?

    They build with fake wood the same way they built with it good old growth lumber. Its a joke.

    Why replace the screen door because the plastic hinge broke/….Goop it together and it out lasts the new plastic hinges….my test results. If you don’t replace old doors you don’t have to replace the main door frame too because the new door doesn’t fit in an old settled frame assembly….LOL

  215. 465

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 462
    Baby Boomers Now Come to the Aid of Working Gen-x and Milenials

    Or Baby Boomers now need Gen-x support to survive….LOL…they old are going broke too. Most Seattle parents/kids won’t admit Suzie still lives in their basement and works full-time too, because Suzie can’t afford Seattle rents. We live in a world where a college degree is a badge of honor to the parents, even if the college just means “burger flipper” pay with no health care…

    Lots of cars in a SFH driveway mean one thing…..family groups and such sharing the “sky-high” Seattle home costs and it causes family arguments too, of course it does…

  216. 466
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 462 – If the economy is that precarious (which it is), why is it that the masses have to suffer with non-survivable wages, while the ratio of CEO to worker pay averaging 339 to 1, with the highest gap approaching 5,000 to 1? Why is it that they are able to rake in (not make) obscene amounts of money? Why is this acceptable? Where is our representation?
    Again, I will say, this is an everything bubble, and it is going to be brutal.

  217. 467

    RE: sfrz @ 465 – I would agree on the representation part of that post. Corporations are doing that because government sets up the situation where they can.

    As to what they’re allowed to do, I’m generally in favor of free trade, but if you look at NAFTA the short-term, medium-term winners were business and Mexican workers, the losers were workers in the US, and Canadian workers probably somewhere–who knows. Most ordinary US workers won’t benefit from NAFTA in my lifetime.

    And on that topic, I’m surprised a couple of thousand children are the focus of the news and protests when the tariff/trade war situation could affect many thousands if not millions. And unfortunately I don’t think Trump himself has a clue (as opposed to maybe some of his advisers). His throwing out the Canadian milk tariffs as an example demonstrates that. Our dairy program is hardly a free market program. It’s almost as if Trump does/says outlandish things to create a distraction. /sarc

  218. 468
    sfrz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 466 – Mexican workers and farmers were devastated by NAFTA. Again, US and EU citizens scratching their angry heads, yelling at immigrants and refugees to go back- when it is their own governments causing the chaos that those people are desperately scrambling to flee.
    “More than 2 million Mexicans engaged in farming and related work lost their livelihoods as NAFTA flooded Mexico with subsidized corn and other agricultural products. Tens of thousands of small retail and manufacturing firms were bankrupted as NAFTA opened the door to Walmart and other megaretailers.” https://www.citizen.org/our-work/globalization-and-trade/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta

    “Mexico’s Farmers Were Put Out of Business
    Thanks to NAFTA, Mexico lost 1.3 million farm jobs. The 2002 Farm Bill subsidized U.S. agribusiness by as much as 40 percent of net farm income. When NAFTA removed trade tariffs, companies exported corn and other grains to Mexico below cost. Rural Mexican farmers could not compete. At the same time, Mexico reduced its subsidies to farmers from 33.2 percent of total farm income in 1990 to 13.2 percent in 2001. Most of those subsidies went to Mexico’s large farms. These changes meant many small Mexican farmers were put out of business by highly subsidized American farmers.” https://www.thebalance.com/disadvantages-of-nafta-3306273
    And, I agree that Trump says/does things that are meant to distract. He is a puppet, as are past presidents. He grandstands while the masters are working in the background. He did not get to his position by votes. He was placed to do a specific job; distract and put on a show.

  219. 469

    RE: sfrz @ 467 – Okay, that would be similar to what would happen to Canada with milk. Although probably some of the lost Mexican agriculture jobs were due to increased mechanization. My comment was more about factory workers in Mexico relative to what would happen to factory workers in the US.

  220. 470
    David says:

    Mexico just reduced the age of consent to 12 nationwide this past week. Who cares what Mexico lost.

  221. 471
    David says:

    There have been numerous articles about every generation since 1975 losing AT LEAST 7 points of IQ / generation. This might explain why they are living in caves in their parent’s basements.

    Supposedly marijuana directly effects the sperm in males causing a reduction in IQ for their offspring as well. This might explain why I perceive so many people in metro-Seattle being missing a chromosome.

    By softwarengineer @ 464:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 462
    Baby Boomers Now Come to the Aid of Working Gen-x and Milenials

    Or Baby Boomers now need Gen-x support to survive….LOL…they old are going broke too. Most Seattle parents/kids won’t admit Suzie still lives in their basement and works full-time too, because Suzie can’t afford Seattle rents. We live in a world where a college degree is a badge of honor to the parents, even if the college just means “burger flipper” pay with no health care…

    Lots of cars in a SFH driveway mean one thing…..family groups and such sharing the “sky-high” Seattle home costs and it causes family arguments too, of course it does…

  222. 472
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 459:

    Here’s another way of reducing the number of hours for “expensive” employees without going to automation. Make the customer do more.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/san-francisco-restaurants-cant-afford-waiters-so-theyre-putting-diners-to-work/

    Either way, someone who had a job no longer does. But it’s not clear this is caused by a minimum wage increase, as opposed to it just being hard to fill low-end jobs in an expensive city for a “reasonable cost.” The same thing could happen for either reason.

    sounds like prices need to rise at diners.

    I think there stories are more I don’t want to raise prices/wages than I can’t raise prices/wages. There are a million stories about how people can’t find help. What they really mean is they don’t want to lose profit margins.

    Bloomberg Is Also Worried About Truckers Getting Higher Pay
    http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/bloomberg-is-also-worried-about-truckers-getting-higher-pay

    Wages are down because every large corporation probably has someone(s) who sole job is to keep your wages down and get their bonus. I think they’ve been doing this so long they don’t know how to raise wages.

  223. 473

    By David @ 469:

    Mexico just reduced the age of consent to 12 nationwide this past week. Who cares what Mexico lost.

    I’m not sure what you’re talking about, but statutory rape in Washington goes down to 12 if the “perpetrator” is not more than two years older than the victim

    http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=9A.44.073

    So in effect . . . that’s what we have here.

    But no 14-year-olds should trust my opinion on that issue. I’m a graduate of the UW School of Law, and the joke when I went to school was its graduates would have to plead everything up to premeditated murder because that’s as far as the Crim Law course went. Also, coincidentally the only Crim Law question on the bar exam the year I took it was a question where every possible charge except premeditated murder was barred by the statute of limitations, and the question was what charge(s) could be brought. Unfortunately, I did not have the guts to write a three-word answer.

  224. 474
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 472 – It means Mexico lowered the age to 12 last week regardless of the age difference. Nationally they did this – overruling local jurisdictions where it was more than 12.

    I cannot remember what the crim law q’s were on my exam, but I do remember it had a question on the Writ of Mandamus – which I knew was bringing a legal action against public figures for failure to do their jobs.

    I have actually filed one of those against a county once thus far.

  225. 475
    sfrz says:

    RE: pfft @ 471 – Same thing happening with rent reduction. No way are the corporate owners going to drop rental prices. They only offer “freebies,” (i.e. parking, free month). They are losing tons of money setting on empty units. No one wants to be the one to start the domino effect.

  226. 476
    David says:

    I see you’re talking to yourself. Sad.

    By sfrz @ 474:

    RE: pfft @ 471 – Same thing happening with rent reduction. No way are the corporate owners going to drop rental prices. They only offer “freebies,” (i.e. parking, free month). They are losing tons of money setting on empty units. No one wants to be the one to start the domino effect.

  227. 477
    Brian says:

    RE: David @ 475
    Do you make those sort of comments to try to suppress people that disagree with you? Sad.

  228. 478
    Rupert D says:

    No he said that because sfrz and pfft are the same person! Maybe Brian is also the same?
    RE: Brian @ 476

  229. 479

    By sfrz @ 474:

    RE: pfft @ 471 – Same thing happening with rent reduction. No way are the corporate owners going to drop rental prices. They only offer “freebies,” (i.e. parking, free month). They are losing tons of money setting on empty units. No one wants to be the one to start the domino effect.

    It’s not that as much as: (1) It’s difficult to fill a new building that is empty–you need to have some sort of a promotion to attract tenants; and (2) A promotion offering something free is better long-term than starting out with lower rents because you don’t have to have a rent increase in a year and people know what to expect after the promotion ends. Sure you may get a lot of people leaving after the promotion ends, but inertia is a powerful force, and in any case you’ll then have fewer vacancies to fill than you did when the promotion started.

    I don’t really follow the rental market, but I suspect that the new buildings in Seattle have all had some sort of a promotion when they opened, it’s just that they’re now much better. Even storage unit places have promotions for new customers–it’s a rather standard practice–and in that industry inertia is a very powerful force because people are storing stuff they don’t need and never see or think about.

  230. 480
    Brian says:

    By Rupert D @ 477:

    No he said that because sfrz and pfft are the same person! Maybe Brian is also the same?
    RE: Brian @ 476

    Uhh, why would you think sfrz and pfft are the same person? sfrz is a bear and pfft is a bull.

  231. 481

    130 jobs lost in Seattle due to its minimum wage, and a lot of uncertainty for the employees affected as they wait to find out if there are other positions that they can fill.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-closing-130-person-seattle-delivery-support-unit-moving-the-jobs-to-phoenix/

    Gee, I wonder, how many people living in Phoenix does the Seattle City Council represent? Apparently the 130 there which will be getting new jobs!

    BTW, as to the other Seattle news–the first in the nation plastic straw ban–do you know why the Seattle City Council is so expert on plastic straws? It’s because they suck!

  232. 482

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 437
    Yes Kary

    Puget Sound Energy was giving them away…LOL….but why pay for all these expensive bathroom parts when they’re built to rust apart in no time anyway…the expensive furniture is also the same as the cheap junk…so shop bottom line.

  233. 483

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 480
    Good News on the MAGA Tax Cuts and Employment for Seattle Recently

    I saw it in writing yesterday at the Kent Jack and the Box is now hiring full 40 hour week employees with Flextime and Health Care….Seattle’s burger flipping wages just got a 100% boost :-)

    God bless the poor!

    There is MASS migration out of Seattle area lately? Job openings are surely booming and so is pay? So the Dummycrats will tell us this bad? These open border folks live in a open border fantasy world hoping for failure? There is good news to blog about today too.

  234. 484
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – That truthdig article was good. Almost no one recognizes that Trump is a symptom and not a cause, and it is refreshing to see that others hold this view. This should be required reading for pfft and his club. Sadly, I think this whole thing is going to devolve into a perverse version of the French Revolution. At least back then, communities were more or less self sufficient. I don’t even like to think about what happens in the U.S. today, where almost everyone outsources food, water, and shelter to someone else. When that “someone else” is gone, it’s not going to be very fun for anyone.

  235. 485
    Rupert D says:

    Bye, Bye Amazon Pie
    Who doesn’t love pie, especially when someone else is paying for it.

    A long long time ago
    I can still remember how
    That city used to make me smile
    And I knew if I had my chance
    That I could make those people dance
    And maybe they’d be happy for a while

    But the Council made me shiver
    With every new tax they’d deliver
    Bad news on the doorstep
    I couldn’t take one more step

    I can’t remember if I cried
    When I read about how the Council tried
    To take businesses revenue to their side
    The day the Amazon died

    So
    Bye, bye my Amazon Pie
    Drove my tax collectors to the Spheres but the coffers were dry
    And them good Council members were drinking organic chai
    Singin’ this’ll be the day that I die
    This’ll be the day that I die

    And while Sawant read a book on Marx
    The homeless rejoiced in the park
    And we sang dirges in the dark
    The day the Amazon died

    We were singin’
    Bye, bye my Amazon Pie
    This’ll be the day that I die
    Helter skelter in a summer shelter
    The techies left Seattle willout a fallout shelter
    Now the Council air was sweet perfume
    While liberals played a marching tune
    We all got up to dance
    Oh, but we never got the chance
    ‘Cause all the techies left the field
    Yet all the Council members refused to yield

    The day the Amazon died
    I started singin’
    Bye, bye my Amazon Pie

  236. 486
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 446 – I came across this article a while back, and it has influenced my approach to my next home I am designing. It was written by a guy who deals firsthand with poor roof design – a roofer.

    http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/musings/martin-s-ten-rules-roof-design?page=1

  237. 487
    pfft says:

    By Brian @ 479:

    By Rupert D @ 477:

    No he said that because sfrz and pfft are the same person! Maybe Brian is also the same?
    RE: Brian @ 476

    Uhh, why would you think sfrz and pfft are the same person? sfrz is a bear and pfft is a bull.

    shhh, that’s the plan. I would say right now the economy is ok(notwithstanding income inequality and all that) and so is the stock market and real estate biz but we are getting a little late with this Obama Recovery.

  238. 488

    RE: wreckingbull @ 485 – My house has a skylight from the prior owner. I almost took it out.

    We did put in some small side windows in that room. They weren’t there originally due to golf balls, but these are small and our eves overhang quite a ways. It would need to be a rather direct flat shot!

    But it happens! We visited a neighbor who moved to another golf course down near Phoenix and right before we got there a golf ball went through one of her small side windows. No overhead protection though.

  239. 489

    By wreckingbull @ 483:

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – That truthdig article was good. Almost no one recognizes that Trump is a symptom and not a cause, and it is refreshing to see that others hold this view. .

    Actually, Bernie was a symptom of that too. People don’t like the status quo and will look to either extreme to change things. The Mexican election could be the same, and Brexit, and just about any election in the EU except Germany (but even Merkel is in trouble). Many people do not like what politicians are doing.

    Somewhat related, I thought one of Trump’s best lines during the campaign, directed at African-Americans, was: “What have you got to lose?” Really he was making that same appeal to a far broader audience. There he was just a bit more blunt. as if that was possible for Trump.

  240. 490
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 489:

    By wreckingbull @ 483:

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – That truthdig article was good. Almost no one recognizes that Trump is a symptom and not a cause, and it is refreshing to see that others hold this view. .

    Somewhat related, I thought one of Trump’s best lines during the campaign, directed at African-Americans, was: “What have you got to lose?”

    really? probably one of his dumbest lines and he is REALLY dumb. African-Americans had a lot to lose and Trump is a racist. He was sued TWICE for not renting to african americans in his apartments. He wanted to “bring back the police” meaning beat the sheet out of black people in the 90s. He wanted to execute the central park 5 even when they were exonerated by the NYPD.

    He said Obama was born in America. He said he was “shocked” at what his people in Hawaii were finding in an interview in 2012. Guess that investigation didn’t pan out?

    I bet a lot of black people would love to be able to fire the people investigating him like Trump did with Comey.

  241. 491

    By pfft @ 490:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 489:

    By wreckingbull @ 483:

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – That truthdig article was good. Almost no one recognizes that Trump is a symptom and not a cause, and it is refreshing to see that others hold this view. .

    Somewhat related, I thought one of Trump’s best lines during the campaign, directed at African-Americans, was: “What have you got to lose?”

    really? probably one of his dumbest lines and he is REALLY dumb. African-Americans had a lot to lose and Trump is a racist. He was sued TWICE for not renting to african americans in his apartments..

    His point was that the Democrats for decades had been promising to help them, but not much had improved. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. That’s basically how you could describe their support for Democrats–insane.

    Also, we was not sued for not renting to African-Americans. He was sued because one of his property managers allegedly did something of the sort. I’m pretty sure what the manager was doing was against official policy, as it is at most places, but you can’t really control apartment managers.

  242. 492
    David says:

    RE: Brian @ 477 – pfft and sfrz are the same people. Literally.

  243. 493
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 491:

    By pfft @ 490:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 489:

    By wreckingbull @ 483:

    RE: sfrz @ 461 – That truthdig article was good. Almost no one recognizes that Trump is a symptom and not a cause, and it is refreshing to see that others hold this view. .

    Somewhat related, I thought one of Trump’s best lines during the campaign, directed at African-Americans, was: “What have you got to lose?”

    really? probably one of his dumbest lines and he is REALLY dumb. African-Americans had a lot to lose and Trump is a racist. He was sued TWICE for not renting to african americans in his apartments..

    His point was that the Democrats for decades had been promising to help them, but not much had improved. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. That’s basically how you could describe their support for Democrats–insane.

    Also, we was not sued for not renting to African-Americans. He was sued because one of his property managers allegedly did something of the sort. I’m pretty sure what the manager was doing was against official policy, as it is at most places, but you can’t really control apartment managers.

    so you’re saying trump was a victim of apartment managers? The guy(meaning his dad) that was arrested at a klan rally? Didn’t Donald say that some of the white supremacists in Virginia were “very fine people?

    https://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2017/02/trump-fbi-files-discrimination-case-235067

  244. 494
    pfft says:

    By David @ 492:

    RE: Brian @ 477 – pfft and sfrz are the same people. Literally.

    you’ll get over it,

    hey, did you hear that it looks like Cohen is going to flip on yer boy Trump? Do think he’ll do it in a loving way? Do you think Donald “Tender Cages” Trump is going to go to jail?

  245. 495

    By pfft @ 493:

    so you’re saying trump was a victim of apartment managers?

    For that incident, yes. Do you not know how the world works? Do you think Trump is actually reviewing tenant applications and meeting with the applicants? Do you think that Trump wanted to risk the fines and adverse publicity?

    BTW, the reason you didn’t get Trump’s appeal (“What have you got to lose?”) is that you are so locked into Democratic party BS that you didn’t understand it. And to be clear, I’m not saying that the Republican party has been any better for poor people or African-Americans. I’m only saying that the Democratic party’s record of actually helping people is very poor outside the handing out of benefits. As to actually helping someone’s position in life, they are better at helping the wealthy and business entities which many of their supporters despise so much. But fortunately for the Democratic party, many of their supporters are very gullible.

  246. 496
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 495:

    By pfft @ 493:

    so you’re saying trump was a victim of apartment managers?

    For that incident, yes. Do you not know how the world works? Do you think Trump is actually reviewing tenant applications and meeting with the applicants? Do you think that Trump wanted to risk the fines and adverse publicity?

    LOL. And the 2nd lawsuit? Trump was a victim in that one too?

  247. 497

    RE: pfft @ 496 – I’m not calling him a victim. Not sure which the second lawsuit is, but I doubt he was reviewing tenants at any point in time. Below his pay grade–even probably back when he was working for his father.

  248. 498
    David says:

    5,000,000 new jobs under Trump – nuff said.

  249. 499
    Benvolio says:

    By David @ 471:

    There have been numerous articles about every generation since 1975 losing AT LEAST 7 points of IQ / generation. This might explain why they are living in caves in their parent’s basements.

    Supposedly marijuana directly effects the sperm in males causing a reduction in IQ for their offspring as well. This might explain why I perceive so many people in metro-Seattle being missing a chromosome.

    Quite the opposite. The data consistently shows a rise in IQ with each subsequent generation.

    This metadata analysis shows a rise of about 3 points per decade and 10 points per generation

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25987509

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