About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

940 comments:

  1. 251
    Ben says:

    Don’t know how true this is but I have a friend with FEMA connections. He was told shelter in place/ lockdown is coming Monday. We shall see.

  2. 252
    Jeff says:

    By Erik @ 249:

    RE: richard @ 248
    Supply and demand is a stronger force than Coronavirus.

    Ummm, I don’t think Coronavirus is a “force”, although it most certainly will have an effect on the forces of supply and demand. As a landlord who depends on the demand of renters that are beginning to mightily struggle, may the force be with you. Oh yeah, on the supply side, there’s going to be a lot of condos and single family homes being converted to rentals in short order, and it’s reasonable to guess that prices may become very competitive pretty soon. Soon, you’re going to appreciate that “sweaty renter cash” more than you ever thought you would.

  3. 253
    S-Crow says:

    One Million Masks Challenge:

    The S-Crow’s will be participating in the 1 Million Masks effort. People who can sew masks are asked to participate as much as possible.

    We are going to be making 100 masks as the effort asks us to. Providence Hospital is kicking off the program locally and pick up of materials starts this Monday March 23, 2020 at Renton’s Providence Hospital. You must sign up.

    “Since materials are precious and large quantities are required to make a difference, we’re seeking volunteers willing to make at least 100 masks. If you know how to sew, have a sewing machine, and are up for that challenge, here’s how you can help”

    https://www.providence.org/lp/100m-masks

  4. 254
    Whatsmyname says:

    By Jeff @ 250:

    Oh yeah, on the supply side, there’s going to be a lot of condos and single family homes being converted to rentals in short order, and it’s reasonable to guess that prices may become very competitive pretty soon.

    Please expand and elucidate.

  5. 255

    RE: S-Crow @ 251

    Healthcare professionals at present cannot accept homemade masks. People have offered. Most everyone else should not be going out.

    I am doing most everything without the need for being in the same physical space as someone within 10 feet of one another and so far 98% working from home after a full self quarantine from 2/29 to 3/14.

    I have Rave Masks. They “store” around your neck as a scarf and are a stretchy fabric and you pull them up over you mouth and nose, especially when talking. Droplets come out of your nose and mouth. Droplets do not come out of your hands. I wear gloves but the wash hands people aren’t addressing that you shouldn’t be spewing your droplets out in the first place.

    I mention this because I went into a store one time since 2/29 and there were not a lot of people and they were mostly at least 10 feet apart until checking out, but they were almost all talking on their phones the entire time they were in the store! Don’t spew your droplets all over the product by talking to your bestie while standing 6 inches from the cans of soup!

    Rave Masks, Sports dust and dirtbile masks, bandannas, scarfs. Things you can wear around your neck when no one and no thing is around like walking outside in the park with no one near you, but can pull up over your nose and mouth quickly when you are near a surface you can spew on or a person who comes too close to you.

    Leave your phone in the car when you shop and get in and get out. It’s not helping for people to not be together at the same time if you are spewing droplets while inside. Cover your face. Be a bandito or gangsta and wear a bandanna or rave mask. They don’t protect you like a healthcare worker mask but it’s not about you getting sick. It’s about you containing your droplets best you can.

    Sorry, that’s a PSA. :)

  6. 256

    RE: S-Crow @ 251
    Great Job S Crow

    Those masks should be warn by those with a cough and could be walking Typhoid Marys, thinking [untested] its just a mild allergy, when it could be Chinese Flu and spreading it around. If I see someone with a mask on, the three foot social barrier isn’t big enough now, try 6-10 feet. They say though most flu contagion [outside of low risk] is touching someone with a cough and getting it on your like iPhone and your face later…its hands folks.

    I went to WINCO yesterday and they line you up 6 feet apart at the door and assign you to checkout cashier with Typhoid Mary social distancing signs all over. Families aren’t shopping with 2-4 kids anymore either. The toilet paper is gone BTW, none anywhere now. Use a shower instead if you have to. Here’s where they [like Thailand] “PRICE GOUGE ” you for toilet paper and you won’t get until next May anyway, Hades its like $100 bids for a pack of Scott at eBay auctions now, LOL:

    https://www.ebay.com/

    If you have any rolls left at home now, use it sparingly. If you run out, there’s always showers instead, maybe use ears of corn….LOL

    The least of our worries now. BTW, I luckily snatched up a 20 pack of 1000 Scott Tissue rolls a few weeks ago, its still unopened and worth ten times what I paid for it then on today’s eBay auctions if you want it delivered within a week now. We need an emergency federal stimulus package for toilet paper now…LOL

    EQC casino did close yesterday for two weeks, I saw the March 17th closed sign. Did Boeing and the gyms close yet???

    Make sure you wash your hands, now grab your mug, fill it with MJB and read the brief Brief:

    “… Hospital workers, desperate for masks, are making them from office supplies
    Sue Giboney of Providence St. Joseph Health makes a face mask in Seattle this week. With the hospital system “a couple days away” from running out, workers hit craft stores and Home Depot, then formed an assembly line. The shortage of protective masks, gowns and eye gear is putting medical workers’ lives at risk. (Photo: Jovelle Tamayo / The New York Times)…”

    SWE’s Take: S-Crow, our star Bubblehead, is sewing them now too. I saw some homemade ones that can be washed and reused, they’re made out of cloth. The medical emergency supply flipper “vulture” crooks can’t grab the paper ones all up if we replace ’em with reusable cloth ones instead….LOL…BTW, Katrina taught us gold and silver coins are worthless during apocalypse times like now; try like coffee, beer and pot for barter [toilet paper too…LOL]

    “… Laid-off workers can’t get through to Washington state’s jobless agency. The system is overwhelmed as claims flood in…”

    SWE’s Take: Another reason all families should have at least 6 months $CASH$ net pay stashed for emergencies. With social distancing now, the waiting lines should go on for blocks. Food banks too. It takes paperwork and approvals to get stimulus money and waiting in long “administrative” soup kitchen lines for your supplies now. Why can’t they do this on the internet instead?

    “… Behind the coronavirus testing debacle: In past health emergencies, the feds have fast-tracked test kits. But this time, that process failed spectacularly. Read the Times Watchdog story.
    The U.S. wasn’t ready for this, and the Trump administration knew it. Before coronavirus hit, the White House had a cascade of warnings that accurately predicted the problems we’re seeing now….”

    SWE’s take: Yeah, call it the “Chinese Communist Name”, the Trump Flu, he caused it. Obama, Bush and Clinton were all pushing useless “yearly new strain” flu shots for decades instead, I’ve never seen a maxima curve “timeline math model” on flu contagion/degradation used on MSM, ever. Trump invented it in the last week [it was before we knew what we were doing]. And that “globalist” WHO test kit is a joke at 40/tests [inaccurate too] a day, Trump’s development was the accurate 2000/tests “drive through” a day…LOL…have you noticed case #s jumping way up now with “a relatively stable” low American death rate, since we now have an American test kit now. Thank God. The Chinese Flu is a stealth/planned Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) against Western Civilization??? Why isn’t it then? BTW, the flu statistics from Italy and even Iran, looks far more accurate than the “globalist” WHO Asian country safety statistics [include Japan and South Korea, etc too folks], supplies and allegations IMO. As a math major, their math is simply subpar and fuzzy, and worse yet misleading for the sake of “sweeping it all under the rug” to kill more victims.

    “…What a perfect time to get hooked on a book series. Here are 14 recommended series to binge on. ..”

    SWE’s Take: I’m on my 9th Anne Rice hard cover novel, it was wrote in 1995 and its title is “Mennoch the Devil”. Its a great read and takes you to “actual” heaven and hell with God and the Devil together discussing creation…a great fiction book with “non-fiction” philosophy applications. A lot of Bible Lost Book references from Enoch too on fallen angels too. Her “fictional/proposed” description of Satan is very innovative too, IMO. We need more ethics to fight this flu, so the book fits in perfectly too. Ancient Aliens uses Enoch too as a valid religious history reference too, so you know SWE likes it…LOL…even atheists will enjoy it, it gives their side too.

    Good News: SWE’s toilet paper supply will stretch a couple months if used sparingly…LOL

  7. 257
    Erik says:

    RE: Jeff @ 250
    One thing I’ve done well is buy property in areas people want to live in the city. I do what my tenants want, so I imagine most will stay. I’m not worried about renting my rentals out.

  8. 258

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 253
    Ya Clean the IPhones With Lysol Ardelle

    And 15 seconds later [after it dries] its ‘immediately” covered with possible public flu germs again now….even your car door handle and steering wheel if ya drive. Stay home like ya said, preventive measures with hands are way too complex and inaccurate to implement 100%…LOL…I took my groceries [no toilet paper BTW…LOL] in and immediately threw the paper bags [possibly contaminated, as well as the food containers away] . Then thoroughly washed my hands, even the car keys are suspect later…LOL…I even worry about my door handle to get into my house now too. Its hopeless…LOL

  9. 259

    RE: Erik @ 255
    13 Year High in Home Sales Last February

    That’s not chump change either.

  10. 260

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

  11. 261
    sfrz says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254 – Stop with your racist Trump talk. Such a juxtaposition. Won’t even say Hell, (Hades) but you spew your racist rants. Use your own blog, not Tim’s.

    This is NOT a race issue. This is a pandemic. We’re all involved. This virus makes no judgement on who the host is.

  12. 262
    David says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 258:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

    Actually it is the Wuhan Virus. Let us not forget that China wantonly murdered 62M people in the 70s and tasked their own citizens to do it.

    Then they forced their women to abort babies by force recently.

    China and its Government are not deserving of respect. They have a stated goal of destroying the USA economically and ARE NOT ashamed of saying it.

    The majority of China is absolutely filthy. China ‘ranks’ their cities and stigmatizes those not in the higher tier.

    I’ll stand with SE on this one.

    I will not be surprised at all if China is developing bio-warfare to achieve their global domination & reserve currency goals.

  13. 263
    David says:

    By David @ 260:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 258:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

    Actually it is the Wuhan Virus. Let us not forget that China wantonly murdered 62M people in the 70s and tasked their own citizens to do it.

    Then they forced their women to abort babies by force recently.

    China and its Government are not deserving of respect. They have a stated goal of destroying the USA economically and ARE NOT ashamed of saying it.

    The majority of China is absolutely filthy. China ‘ranks’ their cities and stigmatizes those not in the higher tier.

    I’ll stand with SE on this one.

    I will not be surprised at all if China is developing bio-warfare to achieve their global domination & reserve currency goals.

    There is nothing in China’s history that says they would not kill a lot of their own people to asymmetrically kill their economic enemies.

  14. 264

    RE: David @ 261

    I am born on a date and at a time that would in China have assured that I would be drowned at birth at one time. A “triple horse” female.

    Still NO reason for people HERE in this place where we have many, many Chinese citizens to be saying “Chinese Flu” on a real estate related site. How does that impact real estate for you to say that? It’s unnecessary and a bad message for we here and irresponsible X1,000 to do that HERE.

    I have zero tolerance for it. As I said and to your point I do understand why The President is saying that. But NO ONE HERE needs to call it that. Ridiculous and harmful in our local area. Just DON’T.

  15. 265
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 262 – I imagine a lot of Chinese people want to make sure the CCCP does not get its way. They should be calling it the Wuhan Virus themselves.

    China principally oppresses and murders its own people. The Chinese Government would not blink an eye to oppress any American.

    The Taiwanese I knew as a kid were certainly no fans of China. If Chinese expats are no longer willing to condemn and shame China, then they deserve to be shamed.

    Along with anyone foolish enough to support the sycophants.

  16. 266
    WazzuSteve says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 212 – First Ardell, thanks for your contribution to this board.

    To your questions, those numbers are correct. The big difference between corona and swine is that corona is 30x-50x for deadly. That’s what isn’t getting through on a lot of people. The reason for shut downs on corona is the concern on hospital capacity. Think of a 30-50x increase in hospitalizations with a set number of nurses/doctors/beds, etc.

    Swine: 12.4k deaths divided by 60.8m infected = .02%
    Corona: 219 deaths divided by 16.5k infected = 1.3% (as of 3/20)
    That’s 65x but I am confident death rate will go down as testing gets further rolled out and less riskier patients get tested which will drive down the death rate.

  17. 267
    Millennial Engineer says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 258:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

    Shame on you, Ardell. No one, not even the President, should get a pass on racism.

  18. 268
    Brianna says:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 265

    Is calling the Spanish flu, the Spanish flu also racist? And if so – what else should we call it?

    In my opinion, it doesn’t have anything to do with race, but where the virus originated.

  19. 269
    Erik says:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 265
    How is it racist calling it the “Chinese flu?”

    If the flu was from France and we called it the “French Flu,” would that be racist? I’m asking because it seems like you are more of a pro than me at this stuff. I’m someone that doesn’t have lots of emotion and I don’t understand.

  20. 270

    RE: Brianna @ 266
    Yes Brianna:

    The origin country of the flu is the only way to mathematically predict their early curve actuals later to ours. Even Yellow fever could have been called Central American Flu….but that’s racist against Latinos?

    BTW, what’s that got do with finding a cure? Racism isn’t math models. Do you really think flu shots worked decades before Trump, now I’m rolling around the ground laughing…

    And what’s politically correct about a RE business blog anyway and why are you trying to insert politics into everything if you do? Cat got your tongue?

    Hate me if ya like, most folks agree with me face to face. Can you say that about yourself calling everyone with a math plan a RACIST?

  21. 271
    Hsea says:

    Homemade masks are not effective !!
    Self Quarantine.
    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 253

  22. 272
    Millennial Engineer says:

    Just like calling Coronavirus the “Chinese Flu” is a political tactic, so was the naming of the Spanish Flu, which did not originate in Spain.

    https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/the-origin-of-the-spanish-flu/

    The President calling this pandemic “Chinese flu” is simply deflecting responsibility away from himself for the situation his ignorance is inflicting on the American people.

  23. 273
    Erik says:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 270
    That does not make it racist though, right? This virus one did originate in China. You didn’t really answer the question either. I’m an engineer too and I thought you’d give me a direct answer and you did not. Engineers I hangout with give direct answers. You gave a political answer or the answer someone would give that is purposely trying to muddy the waters.

    Perhaps you just chose the wrong descriptor?

    Also, how is this the president’s fault?

  24. 274
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Erik @ 271 – Just stop. Your comments are reaching a new level of stupid, and that is quite a feat. Yes, we all know by now you are an aerospace engineer. You remind us every day. Most engineers should know what the word ‘taxonomy’ means and why it is a critically important scientific tool.

  25. 275
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 253

    First pick up is Monday, so won’t be able to confirm until then, but I believe the masks that are from the 100M masks challenge are meant to go over the N95 masks the providers wear, in order to preserve the medical masks to make them last longer, and not to replace them. The situation in local hospitals right now is worse than dire. Some teams at certain hospitals literally have no masks at all.

  26. 276
    david2000 says:

    By David @ 260:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 258:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

    Actually it is the Wuhan Virus. Let us not forget that China wantonly murdered 62M people in the 70s and tasked their own citizens to do it.

    Then they forced their women to abort babies by force recently.

    China and its Government are not deserving of respect. They have a stated goal of destroying the USA economically and ARE NOT ashamed of saying it.

    The majority of China is absolutely filthy. China ‘ranks’ their cities and stigmatizes those not in the higher tier.

    I’ll stand with SE on this one.

    I will not be surprised at all if China is developing bio-warfare to achieve their global domination & reserve currency goals.

    RE: David @ 260

    “The majority of China is absolutely filthy. ”

    stupid racist !! you don’t know shit

  27. 277

    RE: ohd1122 @ 273

    My daughter works in a medical office and they were letting sick people in under their appointment protocol if they hadn’t traveled recently. They had plenty of masks but they locked them up in the manager’s office and wouldn’t let the staff have any. The people who have to help the old people fill out their forms and be very close to them while the old people were coughing all over them. So they, the lower level staff, had NO masks but the manager was hoarding them for only certain people.

    My children are all in CA so she is off now with pay for two weeks.

    My son-in-law is an ICU nurse but in neuro. I’ll have to ask him about masks there and who is and is not allowed to have them. Same umbrella as to medical facility. Big one. Not naming names.

  28. 278

    RE: David @ 263 – d

    I was actually calling Kirkland “Wuhan 2.0” in the earliest of days. But people are getting beat up in this Country and we don’t want to unnecessarily incite hate crimes. The worst beating happened in my hometown.

    At the moment you could call it “The Italian Flu”. Where it started doesn’t matter. As I said I totally “get” why the President is doing it. Why people here on the ground on a real estate site need to do it? No good reason.

  29. 279
    Al says:

    Hello!
    Long time reader here, years. I was making six figures before this lockdown, now the income is gone down substantially. Even though I have money in the bank, should I stop paying rent? I know I’m going to get TONS of hate here because most of you are land lords, but if this is a long term play/game/situation, shouldn’t I keep cash and say good bye to credit score for now? My car payment is deferred for 4 months already, they did it them selves, I didn’t even ask.
    I was hearing that soon credit score is not even going to be a factor in getting a loan/mortgage, and it’s mostly going to be based on how much you make, because jobs are going to be scarce.
    Any ideas?

  30. 280

    RE: WazzuSteve @ 264

    I totally understand the hospital capacity issue. I have close family who work in them who explained that to me. I still think there is a political aspect to this. How much is hard to say. But every time some dumb reporter asks the same dumb politically motivated question I want to jump through the TV and smack them.

    They are saying how bad this was handled, meanwhile are they staying home? Are they all so “essential”? They are climbing all over each other to ask their stupid questions. If they really think it is so bad why aren’t they home? Why aren’t they Social Distancing? Why are they doing everything wrong while they shoot their arrows?

    Be honest. Some of it is BS. A lot of hypocrites out there. I didn’t vote for the current President but let’s be honest. If he shut the Country down like it is now and spent tons of money on medical supplies back when they say he should have, they would have slammed him for ruining the Country without good cause. Do you really think anything he could have done would have been OkeeDOkee to the Never Trumpers?

    I supported and voted for President Obama and there are many people who are hating on The President who are acting exactly like the people who did that to the former President. Neither is more correct to do that.

    People are scaring the bejeebees out of everyone. Uncalled for! Everyone needs to stop inciting riots. You’re scaring us old people. :)

  31. 281
    WazzuSteve says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 280

    I assume those questions aren’t directed at me as I was just stating facts. But there are hypocrites on all sides. We have a few on this comment board that we all have to scroll by when they make comments.

    But I also believe that initially it was handled poorly.

    I also don’t understand why some people attack you, I have always enjoyed when you shared data with the community. If I didn’t already have an agent I would definitely contact you for my next purchase.

    FYI, I work in AI at Microsoft and prefer to make data driven decisions and your data helps with that.

  32. 282
    Erik says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 274
    The person has engineer in their screen name, so I assumed I’d get a straight answer based on the person’s name. I guess code monkeys call themselves engineers as garbage men call themselves engineers. It’s a loose term. I asked a straight forward question and did not get a straight forward answer. Do you disagree retired code monkey?

    Are you offended by the term “Chinese Virus?” Please explain why. Simple question. No fluff please, I just want to understand.

  33. 283
    Erik says:

    RE: Al @ 279
    Good comment. Where did you hear credit is not going to matter? I’d like to see that reference because that’s news to me. If credit won’t matter, then definitely stop paying. Let me know so I can stop paying my obligations too.

    It does make sense that if you cannot get evicted, you could stop paying rent. If your landlord is smart, everything will be in place to evict you as soon as the eviction ban is lifted. I think this Coronavirus thing will be over by August(No proof), so you’d only get 4 months of free rent in exchange for bad credit. You’d probably be better off buying a house and stop paying because you could probably squeeze out a couple years of free rent and that would make more sense to me because you’d get more in return for ruining your credit.

  34. 284

    RE: WazzuSteve @ 281

    Wasn’t aimed at you. I have no idea what the people here are doing to contain their germs. :)

    I know from my banking days that there were times when I couldn’t tell everyone what was going on. When our Bank was being taken over by Mellon, we couldn’t tell everyone as soon as I knew it as we couldn’t have everyone leaving to new jobs before we were ready to make an announcement. People thinking we should know everything “they” know are a bit childish. Of course it is his part of his job to keep the panic down and be as optimistic as possible, just as it is the Democrats job to wreak havoc so as to take over the Presidency. That’s politics.

    When Roosevelt said We Have Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself, of course it wasn’t true. No one called him a Liar. That saying is often quoted as a great speech. It was overly optimistic and a big fat lie. :)

    I hate that it is so political because it is hard to pull the politics out of it and see the reality. Swine Flu wasn’t a Presidential Election year. If it were…it would be like this. I have relatives in Italy so I can see the reality, but I hate the blame game. I hate the Us against Them mentality.

    Thank you for the kudos. I’ll be running my Friday stats before the night is over and posting them. I’m getting a house ready for market (for a client) and I don’t need to be around hardly anyone to do that. It’s not hard to do my job and Social Distancing at the same time. I did my 2 week self quarantine early. Food comes to the door. It’s not really hard for me to follow fairly strict protocols. My household can’t self quarantine as my partner has to come and go to kidney dialysis, but we’re doing the best we can. I have every germ killing thing I can think of including a UV Germ Killing Wand where I pretend I’m Luke Skywalker. :)

    But the old people need people to be serious and calm the fck down! There’s no need for all the freaking out and blaming The President. They don’t have to ask that question about January EVERY press conference! Stop beating a dead horse people.

  35. 285
    David says:

    RE: david2000 @ 276 – I’ve been there many times – you have not. By ‘there’, I mean the real China outside Tier 1.

    Get an education.

  36. 286

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 267

    I’m just keeping the President out of it. I’m sick of everything being “Trump’s” fault. He is who he is. He should never have been voted in as President. That is not his fault. He doesn’t belong there. If we vote a 5 year old in as President we can’t blame him for acting like a 5 year old. We can’t avoid every real need in this Country by expecting things from or blaming the 5 year old. There are LOTS of other people around to do things.

  37. 287
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 285 – Sounds exciting. What were you doing there? Sourcing opium for your illegal alien clients?

  38. 288
    Al says:

    By Erik @ 282:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 274
    The person has engineer in their screen name, so I assumed I’d get a straight answer based on the person’s name. I guess code monkeys call themselves engineers as garbage men call themselves engineers. It’s a loose term. I asked a straight forward question and did not get a straight forward answer. Do you disagree retired code monkey?

    Are you offended by the term “Chinese Virus?” Please explain why. Simple question. No fluff please, I just want to understand.

    As a civil engineer, I found it weird that coders and a whole host of other professionals call themselves “Engineers”.

  39. 289
    David says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 278:

    RE: David @ 263 – d

    I was actually calling Kirkland “Wuhan 2.0” in the earliest of days. But people are getting beat up in this Country and we don’t want to unnecessarily incite hate crimes. The worst beating happened in my hometown.

    At the moment you could call it “The Italian Flu”. Where it started doesn’t matter. As I said I totally “get” why the President is doing it. Why people here on the ground on a real estate site need to do it? No good reason.

    Chinese values are different. There are statues erected in China to reflect core values including one of a mother with a dead baby in her arms while simultaneously breastfeeding her elderly parents. [The statues are new because they murdered 62M people and destroyed ALL vestiges of old Chinese culture.]

    The message being to honor your parents over all else.

    Jewish values are to leave your parents and cling to your wife. That one is worse than a non-believing fool if they do not provide for their children.

  40. 290
    Beano says:

    By David @ 19:

    The Obama Years:

    “The flu strain responsible for the outbreak — influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 — was first detected in America in April 2009.”

    “Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.”

    https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html

    Why are we so worried about this Wuhan Virus?

    This.

    Dow was up 26% in 2009 too

  41. 291
    Beano says:

    By The Tim @ 34:

    By David @ 19:

    “Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.”

    Why are we so worried about this Wuhan Virus?

    Let’s run the math on those numbers. 273,000 hospitalizations and 12,649 deaths out of 60,800,000 cases is a hospitalization rate of 0.4% and a death rate of 0.02%. COVID-19 has a hospitalization rate of at least 5% (over 50x as severe), and a death rate that is probably somewhere between 0.4% and 2.9% (20x to 145x as severe).

    To understand why the people who have a deep understanding of epidemiology are worried about COVID-19 and why governments are taking drastic action such as prohibiting large events and closing schools for six weeks or more, let’s compare COVID-19 to the typical flu using the numbers provided here.

    COVID-19 has at least 5x the hospitalization rate:
    • flu: 1%
    • COVID-19: 5%+

    COVID-19 has 4x to 29x the death rate:
    • flu: 0.1%
    • COVID-19: 0.4%-2.9%

    COVID-19 has 1.5x to 2.3x the transmission rate:
    • flu: 1.3
    • COVID-19: 2-3

    And you don’t just get to pick one of these numbers and say “oh it’s only twice as bad as the flu.” These factors build on each other. COVID-19 has the potential to be far worse than the typical flu or any other disease we have seen in the past 100 years, as evidenced by the healthcare collapse we are already seeing in places like Italy.

    The difficult thing about this crisis is that almost nobody alive today has ever experienced anything like this before. The last time anything similar happened was the 1918 Spanish flu. As humans we often try to make sense of new experiences by comparing them to things we have gone through before, but that strategy fails with COVID-19.

    I think this is why we’re seeing intelligent people say foolish things like “what’s the big deal, it’s just like the flu!” They have no other experience to compare to, so they grab the closest match. Unfortunately this is an inadequate analogy that leads to bad conclusions.

    H1N1 rates were much much higher at a similar period (month 1 ) as we are in now with CV. Rate stats ALWAYS go down and you are comping H1N1 data after the full year passed and new, better data came in to show the early data was vastly over-estimated.

    Same thing is occurring with CV.

    CV it turns out is not that contagious, another over-projection. It surprises Drs why the numbers are so puny right now. And they are….puny.

    At some point somebody is going to have to explain why we tolerated H1N1 12,000 dead and did little and why we tolerate 40-60k dead for the flu and a poor vaccine and yet we destroy our economy for what’s statistically turning out to be a seasonal flu.

    Finally – I find it very odd that people minimize the flu (incredibly deadly) to make some point about CV.

  42. 292
    Erik says:

    RE: Al @ 288
    I remember when I first finished my undergrad degree in engineering, I felt ripped off because I had worked so hard and everyone was calling themselves engineers :). Now I don’t really care about titles. I have no pride around that anymore. My focus is on making money because that’s what it’s really all about.

    Do you own any real estate in the Seattle area?

  43. 293
    David says:

    RE: Beano @ 290 – It isn’t “UP” when Obama was directly responsible for it being DOOOOOOOWN. Obama’s possible election drove the markets down drastically.

    Obama was abysmal and totally untalented other than running for office. He chose Joe Biden as his running mate because Biden was lower IQ and wouldn’t outshine him.

  44. 294
    David says:

    Boeing suspends their 8+% dividend. THAT IS BIG news.

    Energy Insider is reporting oil may go to $5/barrel. Jet fuel is about to be stored offshore on ships! When Putin plays hardball, he really plays!!

  45. 295
    Toad37 says:

    This is going to be a historic shift, people. It has an almost religious feel to it. Just noticed it 3/20/2020… weird..

    Anyway… So many systems will be changing. Jobs will be redefined quickly.. ALL the old ways are done.

    As a newer agent, who wants 99% of my business to be listings, I’m considering the flat fee approach with my business going forward. 3% is typically too much for Seattle prices. You can justify some nightmare deals being worth a 3% commission but it would’ve had to be pretty exhausting deal, which that does definitely happen, but… 3% to list? Nah… that’s over.

  46. 296
    OA says:

    By Brianna @ 268:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 265

    Is calling the Spanish flu, the Spanish flu also racist? And if so – what else should we call it?

    In my opinion, it doesn’t have anything to do with race, but where the virus originated.

    I agree as well. It’s where the virus came from, not race.

    And if there are people out that will look upon Chinese people here negatively as a result of this, then they’re idiots!

    The virus originated in that wet market in Wuhan. If the Chinese government did its job and didn’t lie about it right off the bat and try to cover it up then we’re probably in a better situation today. I also personally don’t believe their current numbers of containment either. You think that authoritarian government has regard for human life?

    So many people are going to lose their jobs as a result of this and some are concerned that it’s racist to call it “chinese” virus? Give me a freakin’ break! How foolish is that..check your privilege…

  47. 297
    David says:

    I think we should start a thread on things we wish would get the Wuhan Virus. I’ll start:

    1) Kim Kardashian’s Butt.
    2)

  48. 298
    Beano says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 260:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 254

    Never talking to you again if you don’t stop saying “Chinese Flu”. No reason for you to do that. I honestly don’t get upset when the President does it as I understand why he is doing that. But you have no excuse…NONE.

    Stop saying “Chinese Flu”.

    Yeah stop! It’s China’s Flu

  49. 299
    Beano says:

    By David @ 265:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 262 – I imagine a lot of Chinese people want to make sure the CCCP does not get its way. They should be calling it the Wuhan Virus themselves.

    China principally oppresses and murders its own people. The Chinese Government would not blink an eye to oppress any American.

    The Taiwanese I knew as a kid were certainly no fans of China. If Chinese expats are no longer willing to condemn and shame China, then they deserve to be shamed.

    Along with anyone foolish enough to support the sycophants.

    This is 100%. China deserves nothing but shame for so much. I live with an Asian spouse, from elsewhere in Asia, and she says nobody respects China. You can’t. And they need to know how the world feels.

    If one can not seperate this from Chinese individuals, that’s on them.

    Americans welcome anyone, including those from China, to live here and even become Americans. Don’t expect American’s to bite their tongues when human rights disregarded.

    We have credibility on the topic because we are not perfect ourselves but we always have strived to improve. Citizens around the world know it.

  50. 300
    Intsokzen says:

    I am Chinese American and I agree this should be called the Wuhan or China coronavirus or somehow identified to China. You guys aren’t even aware of the incredible censorship and Orweillian tactics currently going on in China. Any posts or articles in China saying the virus came first from China is immediately deleted. Hundreds of millions of Chinese actually think this coronavirus came from America and that the Americans hid the virus as Influenza cases. The news in China is saying that the US had the worst year of influenza in decades (which is not true) and this is because the US is deliberately hiding its coronavirus cases. The CDC director’s comment that some patients thought to have died from the flu might have had the coronavirus has hundreds of millions of views in China with Chinese state media saying that even American CDC admits that US had coronavirus first but called it influenza to hide the truth. The Chinese government is using that statement like it’s some smoking gun that it came from the US.

    What the Chinese government did at the start of the Wuhan outbreak and is doing now to deflect accountability is a crime against humanity. It is evil and the world needs to know and remember it. Anyone carrying water for the Chinese propaganda for their own partisan goals needs to be called out as well. This should be a bipartisan understanding.

  51. 301
    This blog sucks now says:

    “I’m just keeping the President out of it. I’m sick of everything being “Trump’s” fault. He is who he is. He should never have been voted in as President,.”

    Ardell, the President uses the term “Chinese virus” to dodge blame and stir up viruses. He is the most powerful man in the world. How are these morons posting from their garage somehow MORE offensive to you? They don’t matter, and they’re just following Trump’s cue. You are as clueless as every other poster here.

  52. 302
    Erik says:

    RE: Toad37 @ 2
    Toad, I prefer “condo king” over “condo kid” please. Condo kid seems to minimize me. Condo king gives a better description of how I view myself. Thanks.

  53. 303
    Eastsider says:

    Why are some people upset about naming SARS-CoV-2 virus the Wuhan virus? (I have trouble remembering the scientific name okay?)

    What about the Lyme disease that is named after Lyme, Connecticut?

    There is nothing against Lyme Connecticut or Wuhan, Hubei by naming the disease after geography. It has been done many times in the past, including the recent Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

  54. 304
    OA says:

    By Intsokzen @ 299:

    I am Chinese American and I agree this should be called the Wuhan or China coronavirus or somehow identified to China. You guys aren’t even aware of the incredible censorship and Orweillian tactics currently going on in China. Any posts or articles in China saying the virus came first from China is immediately deleted. Hundreds of millions of Chinese actually think this coronavirus came from America and that the Americans hid the virus as Influenza cases. The news in China is saying that the US had the worst year of influenza in decades (which is not true) and this is because the US is deliberately hiding its coronavirus cases. The CDC director’s comment that some patients thought to have died from the flu might have had the coronavirus has hundreds of millions of views in China with Chinese state media saying that even American CDC admits that US had coronavirus first but called it influenza to hide the truth. The Chinese government is using that statement like it’s some smoking gun that it came from the US.

    What the Chinese government did at the start of the Wuhan outbreak and is doing now to deflect accountability is a crime against humanity. It is evil and the world needs to know and remember it. Anyone carrying water for the Chinese propaganda for their own partisan goals needs to be called out as well. This should be a bipartisan understanding.

    Thanks for sharing that.

  55. 305

    RE: Intsokzen @ 299
    Yes Intsokzen

    Well said, the best comment of the morning….my gosh when the Hong Kong Flu broke out I don’t believe we were analyzing by actual bubble curve maxima and duration of curve after regression back then [the new American tracking math model was never publicized on the news ever to date to my knowledge]; we have that new capability now for MSM publication and China [the source] better be giving us honest bubble curve actuals or the math model gets useless and fuzzy for America’s use. $1 Trillion dollars gets dumped down the toilet in waste if their actuals are low-balled “cooked books” or haywire somehow. The cure analysis is FAR more important than “meaningless” identity word politics.

    Speaking of flat table negotiations with ALL ethnic groups and frank non-partisan solution remarks; I was a respected EEO representative [with special post graduate training] for a decade for the African Americans and the Latinos, until Obama defunded EEO about 2008. I brought up the need for an European History Month as a way of encouraging folks to support Hispanic and African American celebration months too…..all ethnic groups agreed with me BTW. Even Europe thinks Americans dwell on racism way too much instead of teaming together better as one “multi-ethnic group” nation. The Constitution uses “illegal alien” and until the US Constitution strikes that term I use it too.

    I also respect views different than my own and asked the “ethnic group” folks at EEO why the Hades they totally trusted my control of the Latinos and African Americans represented by SWE, a white caucasion….they all laughed at me and told me because they knew I’d do a good job. LOL

    Speaking of Good Job; Time for Your MJB break, it can increase immune response doctors now say, let’s read the brief Brief together with an open mind:

    “…Experts with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are advising people who are mildly sick with what might be COVID-19 to call a doctor about the symptoms but stay home. Medical providers say a trip to a clinic or hospital could be dangerous because of possibly getting exposed to the virus or spreading it. Read more…”

    SWE’s take: Have aspirin stocked and cough medicine that works for sleep [try Mucinex Night Time] now, before ya get sick. Get a home thermometer [store shelves stripped of these too], order from eBay, it was available there about a week ago. I’d add toilet paper, but ya already know that’s a complete joke now [even Kansas has no toilet paper either, I called my daughter yesterday]….more showers and even laundered cotton towel/diaper replacements beat using “the old fashion method”sandpaper surface newspapers in out houses from 1920…LOL….France has those water cleaner toilets, we need ’em now too…LOL

    “… Some grocery stores have set aside certain hours for seniors and at-risk shoppers. Here’s a partial list…”

    SWE’s take: Passive “safe distance” public contact is very low risk spread at grocery stores….touching a coughing victim is likely 1000s of times worse….for any virus.

    Good News: I see almost every adult in America’s gonna get a $1200 check if they make less than $100K/YR, $200K/Yr if the household is married. Social Security recipients get $600 each. More details coming. Hey did the lower Trump Tax Corporate Breaks filled the bank vaults with stimulus $CASH$ already and the banks eat cake now? It sure beats the Stimulus package Obama gave to the banks instead of the avg Joe workers struggling. You rich Seattle $700K home owners eat cake now? No check if per capita income exceeds $100K…sounds fair to me. $100K/yr is the top 10% of household incomes…look it up. Details on the “checks in the mail” soon, at a theater near you too ;-)

  56. 306
    Brianna says:

    RE: OA @ 295

    I agree with you 100%.

  57. 307

    Other News From My Daughter in Kansas

    Her husband works at Bank of America and he’s been put on telework with full pay, B of A apparently has plenty of $CASH$ in the vaults to date and his job is secure. They were teasing me at age 66 that I could get sick, I reminded them I’m retired and live by myself and my risk is low….I teased back that if one of them got the flu or cold, both living in the same house are high risk of spreading it to each other. My daughter gave Ben and I all colds when they visited Seattle last Summer….the families in the same risk are looking at their house buddies with suspicious eyes now…LOL

    Even when I had two kids in public schools and I worked in a public office, the colds/flu hit all of us at the same time in the same house/office much harder….I hardly ever get sick anymore since I live alone…that’s why isolation is so important to fight any virus. Wash your hands frequently. If you have an RV or trailer….use that as a heated sick bed area before it spreads, but its probably too late if there were no clear symptoms from carriers and it already spread inside your home.

  58. 308
    David says:

    By Intsokzen @ 299:

    I am Chinese American and I agree this should be called the Wuhan or China coronavirus or somehow identified to China. You guys aren’t even aware of the incredible censorship and Orweillian tactics currently going on in China. Any posts or articles in China saying the virus came first from China is immediately deleted. Hundreds of millions of Chinese actually think this coronavirus came from America and that the Americans hid the virus as Influenza cases. The news in China is saying that the US had the worst year of influenza in decades (which is not true) and this is because the US is deliberately hiding its coronavirus cases. The CDC director’s comment that some patients thought to have died from the flu might have had the coronavirus has hundreds of millions of views in China with Chinese state media saying that even American CDC admits that US had coronavirus first but called it influenza to hide the truth. The Chinese government is using that statement like it’s some smoking gun that it came from the US.

    What the Chinese government did at the start of the Wuhan outbreak and is doing now to deflect accountability is a crime against humanity. It is evil and the world needs to know and remember it. Anyone carrying water for the Chinese propaganda for their own partisan goals needs to be called out as well. This should be a bipartisan understanding.

    The scariest aspect of the CCCP is that they apparently deem anyone of Chinese descent to be answerable to China.

    Not unlike the Democrats promoting the silly notion that the US Constitution is a World document that applies to everyone outside the USA. Undermining sovereignty and promoting hegemony.

  59. 309
    Joe says:

    RE: DavidE @ 222

    The federal government and Fed Reserve have limitless tools because they can simply print money to offset the deflation caused by any crisis. This is very effective at attacking credit problems because it devalues debts on paper relative to income and asset values. Such money printing doesn’t even increase the government debt, because the debts resulting from increased deficits are immediately bought by the Fed Reserve and retired. This is modern monetary theory in action.

    To understand what will happen, picture them dropping tons of newly printed money from helicopters. If this increases the money supply by 20%, and that gets spread throughout the economy fairly evenly, everybody’s debts are suddenly 20% easier to service. Anybody who owns assets will see their asset rise by 20% as well, but if asset values were 50% overvalued to begin with, you’ll still see a 30% drop.

    The key here is that the government and Fed Reserve will do everything possible to maintain inflation at 0-4%. They’ll keep printing money, in the face of deflationary pressures, until they get inflation in that range. But again, this doesn’t mean asset values necessarily rise because asset values were tremendously overpriced to begin with.

    I think some of the most overvalued assets in the national markets right now are Microsoft and Amazon stock, and Seattle real estate, all of which were trading at very high multiples of income, that is now shrinking. Even before the virus, these companies were facing the law of large numbers, which says the growth rate of big companies has to decrease over time. Recessions accelerate that trend.

  60. 310
    whatsmyname says:

    By Intsokzen @ 299:

    What the Chinese government did at the start of the Wuhan outbreak and is doing now to deflect accountability is a crime against humanity. It is evil and the world needs to know and remember it. Anyone carrying water for the Chinese propaganda for their own partisan goals needs to be called out as well. This should be a bipartisan understanding.

    The denial? The politicizing? The smearing internal of foreign “enemies”?
    Aren’t those the same things that the Trump administration did?
    Should we have the same response for water carriers here?

  61. 311
    whatsmyname says:

    By David @ 306:

    Not unlike the Democrats promoting the silly notion that the US Constitution is a World document that applies to everyone outside the USA. Undermining sovereignty and promoting hegemony.

    Very interesting. Do you have examples of this? Names? Quotes?

  62. 312
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 303 – God bless you, SWE. I hope you don’t catch the Trump flu.

  63. 313
    BackToBasics says:

    We should call it Chinese Communism Virus. 1st case happened in Dec. The Chinese Communist Party still have time contain the virus spread. Instead, they covered it up. The US government knew the virus in January. Still have time to block all personal traveler from the outside of USA. Now it is already too late.

  64. 314
    Toad37 says:

    Settle in my friends. No need to panic. They’ll likely mail everyone out a check for a few grand this coming week. Just chill and remember we’re doing this to protect the nurses, EMTs, doctors, current and future sick people, etc. Stop being selfish and start thinking of others. I’ve been making tie dye shirts for neighbors. The fun colors make everyone cheer up, especially the kids.

    I’m really in awe of what must be happening behind the scenes. Absolutely in awe.

  65. 315
    DavidE says:

    By Joe @ 307:

    RE: DavidE @ 222

    The federal government and Fed Reserve have limitless tools because they can simply print money to offset the deflation caused by any crisis. This is very effective at attacking credit problems because it devalues debts on paper relative to income and asset values. Such money printing doesn’t even increase the government debt, because the debts resulting from increased deficits are immediately bought by the Fed Reserve and retired. This is modern monetary theory in action.

    To understand what will happen, picture them dropping tons of newly printed money from helicopters. If this increases the money supply by 20%, and that gets spread throughout the economy fairly evenly, everybody’s debts are suddenly 20% easier to service. Anybody who owns assets will see their asset rise by 20% as well, but if asset values were 50% overvalued to begin with, you’ll still see a 30% drop.

    The key here is that the government and Fed Reserve will do everything possible to maintain inflation at 0-4%. They’ll keep printing money, in the face of deflationary pressures, until they get inflation in that range. But again, this doesn’t mean asset values necessarily rise because asset values were tremendously overpriced to begin with.

    I think some of the most overvalued assets in the national markets right now are Microsoft and Amazon stock, and Seattle real estate, all of which were trading at very high multiples of income, that is now shrinking. Even before the virus, these companies were facing the law of large numbers, which says the growth rate of big companies has to decrease over time. Recessions accelerate that trend.

    Your comment ignores the reality of how things work in the financial world.

    1. The US government does not print money. THE US GOVERNMENT PRINTS ONLY DEBT (TREASURIES) to raise cash. Otherwise it would not be 24 trillion in debt. Since you used the word limitless, I can assure you that no government can take on limitless debt before creditors balk and interest rates go through the roof.

    2. The Fed (a private entity) can buy the government debt for a while, but it has something called a balance sheet. It faces a currency crisis after limit (read Rickard’s work on this).

    3. Last and most importantly, any nation with a trade deficit must have that deficit funded externally. Yes, by China, Japan, etc., which is why we owe so much to foreigners. They will not lend you limitlessly, and we are at that point. We had failed bond auctions recently which is why the fed started QE because foreigners are not showing up. The fed can cover the government’s funding needs internally, but externally things are falling through the cracks.

  66. 316
    Blurtman says:

    RE: DavidE @ 313 – Countries like China, with which we have a trade deficit, accumulate dollars from our unbalanced purchase of their goods and services, and UST’s are a place the store the dollars.

    The mechanism of using sovereign debt is a convention. It is not the only way governments can finance things. Another way is for governments to print money directly. One fear about this method is out-of-control spending, unlike now.( /snark/). As long as wages remain repressed, and peons remain over-indebted, inflation should not be a problem for important things like toilet paper, liquor, pizza and gaming.

  67. 317
    QA Observer says:

    “Sell Now!, or get left holding the bag” – 2012

    “Buy now or be priced out forever” – 2017

    Which it be third quarter 2020?

    We are in a recession. Seattle is not different. 20% unemployment is being discussed. Boeing is e’fd and all their contractors. Jobless claims will skyrocket this week, may be between 7 & 12%. Have a contingency plan with your creditors, because the leverage party is over.

    Sorry, I hate to be the bearer of bad news.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/quantifying-coming-recession/608443/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/20/us-economy-deteriorating-faster-than-anticipated-80-million-americans-forced-stay-home/

  68. 318

    Yes, We Need Masks, Hazmat Suits and Respirators, etc with extra hospital beds; but why is this impacting toilet paper too…Lord only knows….time to get diaper service cleaning for adults or a new French paperless cleaner toilet installed and grab your MJB mug to read the brief Brief:

    “…Sure, there’s reasonable stocking up as we stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. But what’s going on with the hoarding — especially of toilet paper? Read more…”

    SWE’s Take: Look it up on eBay, the dirty vultures are reselling toilet paper for ten times what they paid a few weeks ago. Capitalism with an emphasis on organized crime IMO. Be careful, the toilet paper you can buy on the internet has like May 2020 delivery too, about the time normal priced toilet paper is restocked again too???

    Good News: Going shopping with safe distancing is low risk….staying home with a potential family member sick with coronavirus is 1000s of times more contagious and thank God most Seattle homes are still coronavirus free. Perhaps the answer is get out of a large family house before someone gets sick and find a good “coronavirus free” single room mate instead? LOL…never touch a person coughing, that’s high risk too.

  69. 319
    Joe says:

    RE: DavidE @ 313

    That’s a regurgitation of common fallacies. If you don’t wise up you will learn the hard way. Those playing by the old rules, which no longer apply, will get whacked. They may have told you its a boxing match, but the government is bringing a gun to this one.

    They just announced another $4T in money printing today. Where do you think the $4T is coming from? Do you think they are counting on loans from from Japan, China? No, it is coming from the printing press.

    Think it through.

    It’s not often my comments get proven out one day later, when the Fed announces $4T of new money printing. I usually have to wait a while for things to play out.

  70. 320

    Isolation Doesn’t Mean We Need to be Locked in House

    Go for a car ride and enjoy the Fall colors in a coronavirus free car…I imagine the parks are closed but the roads aren’t. Bring your own beverages and snacks, turn it into a fun car trip this Sunday with no destination planned.

    Be creative or risk isolation depressions….your choice. I saw gas for $2.49/gal at the Covington Fred Meyer too, so take the comfortable V-8…LOL

  71. 321

    The Math Model Accuracy From Chinese Data Sucks

    “…
    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
    https://www.ft.com/content/bb73bd9c-4d92-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

    “The testing kits are not very accurate, so we need to do multiple tests,” said a coronavirus researcher who wished to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue.

    The coronavirus tests correctly detected positive results just 20-30 per cent of the time, Tong Chaohui, a medical expert advising the government, told local media. Better hospitals could reach a 50 per cent rate of detection but poor ones might have rates as low as 10 per cent, he added….”

    https://www.ft.com/content/bb73bd9c-4d92-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

    And America got their first test kits from these village idiots, 20-30% accurate? LOL…let’s blame it all on failed American medical?

    Ya see why I like the Italian numbers better.

  72. 322

    RE: softwarengineer @ 316

    I did just get some insight on the increased toilet paper needs. Households with many people used to be empty all day. Kids went to school, adults went to work. Their being at home all day, day in and day out, has increased the use of their toilets by including times of day when people used to be not at home. For people who always worked at home or were retired and at home, there was no change. But for most households the usage increased dramatically.

  73. 323
    Coconut says:

    I am officially signing off on this garbage site. I have been following it for about 4 years for the occasional posting of helpful data on real estate. Now, it has little to nothing to do with real estate, is full of people jockeying their ego, is straight up rude in post, the owner posts updates bi-annually, and is full of tabloid type information otherwise. The level of sensationalism on here is not helpful at all. There are only like 10 active users on here…you guys should get a room …literally a chat room somewhere on the dark web next to the snuff channel. Peaceout

  74. 324

    Updating the stats in real time using my March 6th comment and adding today’s numbers. Active Inventory King County.

    Total of all was 2,388 on 12/31
    1/7 it is 2,251
    1/18 is 2,224
    1/24 is 2,193
    1/31 is 2125
    3/6 is 2,339
    3/22 is 2,850

    Condos were 632 on 12/31
    1/7 they are 576
    1/18 is 579
    1/24 is 575 (102 of these are townhouses)
    1/31 is 551 (97 of these are townhouses)
    3/6 is 594 (82 of these are townhouses)
    3/22 is 686 (112 of these are townhomes)

    Residential was 1,756 on 12/31
    1/7 is 1,675
    1/18 is 1,645
    1/24 is 1,618 (195 of these are townhouses)
    1/31 is 1,574 (189 of these are townhouses)
    3/6 is 1,746 (194 of these are townhomes)
    3/22 is 2,164 (241 of these are townhomes)

    Condo
    0 bedrooms 27… 22… 3/6 = 34…3/22 = 31
    1 bedroom 184 … 150… 3/6 = 166…3/22 = 206
    2 bedroom 294 … 261 …3/6 = 271…3/22 = 308
    3 bedroom 92 … 87 … 3/6 = 95…3/22 = 106
    4 bedroom 35 … 31 …3/6 = 29…3/22 = 35

    Residential
    0 bedroom 27 … 24 … 3/6 = 23…3/22 = 22
    1 bedroom 17 …18 … 18…3/22 = 20
    2 bedroom 209 … 190 … 3/6 = 181…3/22 = 225
    3 bedroom 503 … 420 … 3/6 = 510…3/22 = 640
    4+ bedroom 1,000 … 922… 3/6 = 1,018…3/22 = 1,257

    Since new homes generally can’t go off market or be held off market if complete, I’m adding a breakdown for my own purposes of the 2,850 total from the first group.

    695 of the 2,850 are built 2019 or later (including some presales not built yet).
    2156 of the 2,850 are built 2018 or before.

    No commentary. Checking Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Issaquah, Sammamish and parts of Bothell now. Commentary about what’s happening more accurate on a smaller scale than County-wide. You can draw your own conclusions as to the numbers above.

    (Required Disclosure: Stats in this comment are hand calculated in Real Time by ARDELL and not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

  75. 325
    Toad37 says:

    RE: Coconut @ 319 – You are capitulating. I feel you pain, I rarely come here but during pivotal times. But, consider staying… This is a sign of a turning point… Stay around and let’s get some good real estate discussions going again. This site needs an personal ignore button ( if it doesn’t have one so we can block some of those that offend ).

  76. 326
    dw8928@outlook.com says:

    They should open everything up. This Wuhan Virus is going to just have to be dealt with like any other sickness.

    They’re saying 80% of New York is going to get it. That means it will NEVER be stopped til it just runs its course.

    Open businesses back up because FAR more harm is being done to people via unemployment. When they are making a big deal out of 90-year-olds surviving you know something is wrong. ANYTHING will kill a 90ish person, 80ish person, etc.

    The biggest killer of anyone over 75 is basic time. Over time you die.

  77. 327
    Eastsider says:

    RE: dw8928@outlook.com @ 322 –

    Yes, it is about time to consider ending ‘shelter-in-place’ policy. The vulnerable population can stay home but vast majority should be allowed to go about their life. The shutdown of economy will do more harm than the virus. Further, there appears to be a treatment for COVID-19. If so, you will basically have a bad cold if you catch the virus. If hospitals are not overwhelmed, we should definitely lift all restrictions immediately. No reason to bankrupt countless businesses and families. We do not want to have another Great Depression!

    I was one of the first to advocate closing schools. But this indefinite ‘shelter-in-place’ policy is extreme economic suicide.

  78. 328
    David says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 323 – I’d rather just get the virus and get it over with. Jeesh.

    Honestly, it isn’t worth being impoverished just to say you are alive. And I’m over 50.

  79. 329
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 324

    Sounds like you’re whining about your pathetic stock portfolio. What an over 50 year old turd you are.

  80. 330
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 324RE: Eastsider @ 323 – Life sounds pretty cheap in Trumpland. If losing money or going broke is truly worse for you than dying; it is always within your control to avoid the most undesirable of the two possibilities. It seems like that should comfort everyone.

  81. 331
    Intsokzen says:

    I’m more worried about the outbreaks in Australia and South America. With the flu, we get our fall/winter outbreaks typically from the strains in the Southern Hemisphere. This will be non-ending and futile if after all the lockdowns now, it comes right back during the fall.

  82. 332
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 326 – UW Medicine is using the anti-malaria treatment that has been used with remarkable success elsewhere. Same in NY hospitals. There is a shortage of the drug as a result and they are ramping up productions. You just want to troll around here. Why don’t you get a different hobby if all you spill is hate.

  83. 333
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 328 – Is it hateful to take you at your word? That seems awfully delicate for a person so indifferent to the very lives of possibly thousands. Are you just crabby about sitting around the house? (I have to tell you the commute these last three weeks has been awesome).

  84. 334
    TJ_98370 says:

    By Coconut @ 319:

    I am officially signing off on this garbage site. I have been following it for about 4 years for the occasional posting of helpful data on real estate. Now, it has little to nothing to do with real estate, is full of people jockeying their ego, is straight up rude in post, the owner posts updates bi-annually, and is full of tabloid type information otherwise. The level of sensationalism on here is not helpful at all. There are only like 10 active users on here…you guys should get a room …literally a chat room somewhere on the dark web next to the snuff channel. Peaceout


    Agree. Someone recently labeled this blog a “dumpster fire”. Interesting analogy. Too many under-informed, aggressively opinionated commenters. I may as well read Trump’s tweets!

  85. 335
    Jack says:

    Yup – done with this site too. Sad to go as it used to be a great source of real estate information

  86. 336
    Mackenzie says:

    Will hard money lenders or flippers get any bail out money? I’m wondering how flippers who are highly levered with hard money loans (i.e. non banks, with high interest) can carry their properties for far longer than expected without some kind of bail out. Either the hard money lenders would need to get bail out money so that they can withstand flipper delays or defaults or the flippers themselves need to get bail out money so they can keep making the loan payments.

    Will the various bail out programs be able to get money to all the various marginal players in the real estate market? It’s these marginal players who don’t have standard loans, and the non-bank lenders, who are far less capable of withstanding market disruptions than anyone else.

  87. 337
    Millennial Engineer says:

    I’m noticing lots of houses going for 5-10% over asking in North King County, but granted I only watch homes in a couple zip codes so I have no idea what’s happening in Seattle.

    A neighbor’s home is on the market now and it’s been getting a ton of traffic through the week. No open houses, but you wouldn’t know it at some points based on the number of cars on the street and folks milling about. I was speaking with the seller’s agent yesterday and they said the concern isn’t so much getting offers right now, but it’s actually getting things to close because escrows/notaries are reluctant to meet in person and the paperwork all has to be wet-signed.

  88. 338
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 332

    Not sure which areas in NKK you track, but I primarily track Kirkland (98034 mostly) and Greenwood/Roosevelt all <$750K. Seeing the same thing…plenty of properties going pending within a week. This has slowed down a bit in the last month but not nearly as much as I would have expected. One house in Kirkland went for $215K over asking, but that was before some of this market unwinding began. I will note that demand/bidding up seems more prevalent on east side than Greenwood.

    I assumed with interest rates hiking up that we would see a screeching halt in sales, but this either isn't affecting buyers because they're all cash or isn't making a difference financially.

    Definitely seeing more homes coming on the market now, many that list at a more attractive price than a couple months ago (but likely priced to attract bidding wars). I don't think I'm a buyer yet for quite a few reasons, but will continue to watch closely.

  89. 339

    I Flipped On All the Cable News Channels and These Tidbits Caught My Real Estate Eye This Morning:

    Zillow closing all home sales today on FBN, Feds already buying back bad mortgages in unlimited amounts & Treasuries too…..pumping the empty car tanks with $1.49/gal IOWs….this without a stimulus too. The service industry shutdown includes unemployment, but I’m sure many of the flu job victims are working at take outs and such now….

    So Grab Your MJB Mug and watch the caseload of virus victims expand exponentially now with vast more testing; the death rate acceleration in comparison much slower. Means the overall death rate much lower than even 1% to date. Many were using the 2% death rate fuzzy math number. Read the brief Brief:

    “…More than two dozen residents and six staff members at the Shuksan Healthcare Center in Whatcom County are infected with the novel coronavirus, officials announced last night.
    A Boeing worker at the Everett plant has died after coming down with COVID-19…”

    SWE’s take: Touching a coughing virus victim is high risk. Just being in the same general area but not touching is passive low risk….so you can grocery shop without a mask. Masks are touched by hands all the time like iPhones, so many medical folks do not recommend masks for passive protection, but I do. When I see someone with a mask on I assume they may have a cough so keep a ten foot pole from them.

    “… The coronavirus turns the body against itself to kill, and UW researchers are starting to learn how. Other scientists at UW are finding out how keeping our physical selves safe from the pandemic is taking a toll on our mental health and our hearts…”

    SWE’s Take: Fear kills and so does depression. Make sure you don’t think about all the time.

    “…Is school really out? Districts — and teachers — are answering that question differently. And Seattle schools have announced child care sites amid tensions with the city and King County…”

    SWE’s take: Even the teachers don’t want their long “paid” Summer vacations destroyed, but if they use home computer methods, how many students are getting the tasks completed on time and correctly. Last I heard, CBT schooling is racked with failed students too…

    “… “There is no playbook for this.” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella talked with us about how coronavirus anxieties are hitting home for him in a very personal way, and how his company is trying to tap its biggest strength to help slow the pandemic.
    Congress’ disagreements are threatening to turn plans for a massive economic rescue into “a game of chicken.” And U.S. Sen. Rand Paul has tested positive, triggering quarantines — and fury. ..”

    SWE’s Take: Sick Senators can still vote no teleworking? I’m not partisan on this issue BTW, but how did the $1T flu cost bill suddenly become $2T now, with a quick wave of the magic wand? Do these perceived village idiots know what they’re doing [especially if most of the Pandemic fizzles out by mid April anyway]??? LOL.

    Good News: With oil at $22/bbl, I see gas prices down to $2.49/gal at Covington Fred Meyers. When in isolation get in the comfortable big V-8 truck with cushy suspension and go for an isolation ride…enjoy the Fall colors in comfort and listen to some classic rock….LOL…you’ll forget all about the flu….and if ya find a rest area still open, they usually stock it with the new gold/silver “apocalypse” coins now…toilet paper…LOL. I bet the biggest office/work theft item is now toilet paper….LOL

  90. 340

    RE: ohd1122 @ 333

    I explained it to a few of my clients this way.

    1) On the houses we saw together before March 1 there were 8 to 14 offers. Even if 80% of those buyers are not buying, there are still 1 to 2 buyers per house.

    2) You will not see prices drop at this point as asking prices should not drop in the near term. Houses like this one that we saw that bid up $260,000 would still sell, but sell for less of a bid up but not less than asking price. Listed at $1,200,000; old for $1,460,000. So the price may be less than $1,460,000, but it still would have sold and as quickly as the seller allowed via a review date.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/12924-NE-87th-St-98033/home/8187244

    Yes I am seeing more listings but still only 10 houses between $800,000 and $1,200,000 in 98033 and the only one that should be pending right now is firmly waiting to review offers until tomorrow. The increased listings, and I posted that yesterday, do not seem abnormal for this time of year. Not excessive in the least.

    I am getting a house ready in Education Hill Redmond. There are likely less germs for me in a vacant house as I work from “their home” vs from “home”. :) My partner goes in and out of Kidney Dialysis 3 times a week, so not likely less germs if I don’t work on that house.

  91. 341
    Erik says:

    RE: Mackenzie @ 331
    Flippers are selling for large profits in Seattle right now to exit hard money loans. Today is day 1 I’m out of my hard money loan. I got a good appraisal and was able to pull money out for the next house or condo remodel because values haven’t decreased yet.

    Auction property environment has changed because there is an eviction moratorium in place in Seattle right now. Most foreclosures have someone in them that needs to be evicted. So for me to buy another one, I’d have to buy with hard money while someone lives in my property for free. If the moratorium is 6 months and then it takes me 4 months to evict, that would be about $40k invested before the remodel even starts.

    Government interference is slowing house flippers and investors, not values.

  92. 342
    Beano says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 326:

    RE: David @ 324RE: Eastsider @ 323 – Life sounds pretty cheap in Trumpland. If losing money or going broke is truly worse for you than dying; it is always within your control to avoid the most undesirable of the two possibilities. It seems like that should comfort everyone.

    Meh…Seattle beaches were filled this past weekend. Seattle also held an MLS game on March 7th with 40k fans – still the largest gathering in the US since that date. This isn’t “trumpland” ignorance – this is human’s being able to asses risk and it turns out CV isn’t very risky. Our hospitals, even here in Seattle never came close to being overhwhelmed at any point and we had the CV run wild for a month.

    This virus is everywhere on the planet and we can’t hide from it, we haven’t. Let’s live life and continue to have success with our healthcare treatment.

  93. 343

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 335
    Yes Ardelle:

    I’d put all the much higher risk health cars folks that touch and work around around “coughing” pneumonia infected patients up in hotels with room service for a couple weeks. Don’t let ’em go home and infect the whole house, especially large families. Passive contact, like grocery shopping, is low risk, especially with social distancing.

  94. 344

    RE: Mackenzie @ 331
    Yes Mackenzie

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-billionaire-barrack-says-230309693.html

    It may be more fear mongering from Bloomberg sources, because the feds also may be buying the mortgages back in “unlimited” amounts if today’s FBN reported allegation means this. Emergency order measures and Congress bill action are all mixed up now. Time will tell.

  95. 345

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 318
    Trump and the DOJ Should make It Illegal to Sell Toilet Paper On EBay for More Than 100% Over Retail Price

    Its price gouging affecting large families at home. The postage alone on a like a 12 pack can be like $70 to ship the huge box.

  96. 346
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 326:

    RE: David @ 324RE: Eastsider @ 323 – Life sounds pretty cheap in Trumpland. If losing money or going broke is truly worse for you than dying; it is always within your control to avoid the most undesirable of the two possibilities. It seems like that should comfort everyone.

    Meanwhile, in the world of the LOW IQ, Low-Quality Democrats such as yourself, here is Florida’s version of the best the Dems can do:

    https://magamedia.org/2020/03/21/photos-baggies-of-crystal-meth-empty-corona-bottles-naked-andrew-gillum-and-soiled-bedding-these-are-the-sordid-images-of-the-raucous-hotel-party-that-sent-florida-dem-andrew-gillums-career-on-a/

  97. 347
    S-Crow says:

    – Boeing shutting plants for two weeks.

    – Fed Gov. (ie, on taxpayers dime) are doing everything they can to support the housing market. Open ended Mortgage Back Securities and support of the GSE’s.

    – Housing Wire reporting Fannie/Freddie relaxing guidelines and appraisals.

    – Seeing inventory rising and price drops more frequently not just in Seattle/Metro Market. It would not surprise me to see this accelerate.

  98. 348
    ohd1122 says:

    RE: Beano @ 337

    From what anecdotes/data did you draw your conclusion that Seattle area hospitals are not overwhelmed?

  99. 349
    QA Observer says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 341

    Like!

  100. 350
    S-Crow says:

    There’s lots of chatter about the AirBnB rental owners in trouble due to liquidity issues. I’m hopeful people are reading between the lines here……..highly levered and when the cash flow is interrupted its holy crap time. These folks will be among the many to flood the market with listings if this problem continues.

    Those AirBnB ‘ers that have low debt servicing or own their properties free and clear are doing just fine through the interruptions.

    I have clients that have several homes in the Seattle area solely under this business model.

  101. 351
    Any says:

    By ohd1122 @ 333:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 332

    I assumed with interest rates hiking up that we would see a screeching halt in sales, but this either isn't affecting buyers because they're all cash or isn't making a difference financially.

    Interest rates have been super volatile but there are still days where they low. Today a couple of the major banks i track dropped their rates close to a half point from last week. You can get a 3.125% 30-yr from either Chase or Wells today. The FED is firing everything they can right now to try to pump liquidity. One of the key reasons is to try to keep rates low to support the housing market as they can.

  102. 352
    Blurtman says:

    The novel coronavirus outbreak will likely bring the U.S. housing market to a halt, according to one economist.

    With consumers staying at home to slow the spread of COVID-19, open houses have been canceled, and potential buyers will likely decide to put off their home purchase, a large financial commitment as the U.S. spins into a potential recession.

    “We’re gonna have a shutdown in the housing market because people aren’t out there seeing the houses, and also because generally economic activity is contracting in almost every sector of the economy,” said Tendai Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree.

    Major brokerages have canceled open houses over this past week, while foot traffic at remaining open houses have slowed, according to most recent data. In New York City, there were 28% fewer open houses the weekend of March 15, compared to the weekend of March 8, and that number is expected to be even lower for the weekend of March 22.

    “People basically are not gonna go and see houses… You don’t want to be out there mixing it up with people you don’t know, for one. And two, more importantly, the people who have homes to sell, they don’t want people walking through their houses touching everything,” said Kapfidze.

    Additionally, many Americans are fearful about what the economy will mean for their job security and financial stability. The uncertainty will likely cause buyers to pause their home search, even with record-low mortgage rates, according to Kapfidze.

    “I think we’re guaranteed to have a recession at this point,” he said.

    A need for nationwide homeowner relief

    In the meantime, said Kapfidze, the government should extend lines of credit to lenders, so they can, in turn, grant relief to homeowners unable to make mortgage payments. As of March 23, the U.S. government has granted a moratorium on federally-backed mortgages, and banks such as Bank of America, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, TD Bank, Wells Fargo and others are offering mortgage payment relief — but currently there is not a total national pause on mortgage payments.

    “For a lot of people, their housing costs are the highest cost that they face each month… by putting this moratorium on mortgages, you help out a lot of people who are having interruptions in their stream of income… And the way that would work is to protect the financial markets, you still want those payments to flow to investors,” said Kapfidze.

    Despite a pause in the housing market, homes and other real estate assets will likely retain their value compared to stocks and other invisible assets, he said, adding that the value of illiquid assets is safer than those of liquid assets.

    “Home prices I think are just kinda gonna get frozen into place. And then once the public health crisis is over, the housing market can kind of restart,” said Kapfidze.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-were-gonna-have-a-shutdown-in-the-housing-market-154833204.html

  103. 353
    Blake says:

    By Brianna @ 268:

    RE: Millennial Engineer @ 265

    Is calling the Spanish flu, the Spanish flu also racist? And if so – what else should we call it?

    In my opinion, it doesn’t have anything to do with race, but where the virus originated.

    1918 “Spanish” flu actually originated in Kansas…
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC340389/
    “Soldiers moved uninterrupted between Funston, Kansas and the outside world, especially to other Army bases and France. On March 18, Camps Forrest and Greenleaf in Georgia saw their first cases of influenza and by the end of April twenty-four of the thirty-six main Army camps suffered an influenza epidemic…
    The fact that the 1918 pandemic likely began in the United States matters because it tells investigators where to look for a new virus. They must look everywhere.”
    (end quote)

  104. 354
    richard says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 344 – can they delay their mortgage payment?

  105. 355
    ploam says:

    Per S-Crow’s comment, I’ve noticed furnished ex-AirBnB properties start to pop up on rental sites. With fewer people staying at AirBnBs, those owners will either have to rent them out long term or sell them.

  106. 356
    Erik says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 341
    It’s time to unleash the negative amortization loans again!!!! It’s time.

  107. 357
    weneedmasks says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 255:

    RE: S-Crow @ 251

    Healthcare professionals at present cannot accept homemade masks. People have offered. Most everyone else should not be going out.

    I am doing most everything without the need for being in the same physical space as someone within 10 feet of one another and so far 98% working from home after a full self quarantine from 2/29 to 3/14.

    I have Rave Masks. They “store” around your neck as a scarf and are a stretchy fabric and you pull them up over you mouth and nose, especially when talking. Droplets come out of your nose and mouth. Droplets do not come out of your hands. I wear gloves but the wash hands people aren’t addressing that you shouldn’t be spewing your droplets out in the first place.

    I mention this because I went into a store one time since 2/29 and there were not a lot of people and they were mostly at least 10 feet apart until checking out, but they were almost all talking on their phones the entire time they were in the store! Don’t spew your droplets all over the product by talking to your bestie while standing 6 inches from the cans of soup!

    Rave Masks, Sports dust and dirtbile masks, bandannas, scarfs. Things you can wear around your neck when no one and no thing is around like walking outside in the park with no one near you, but can pull up over your nose and mouth quickly when you are near a surface you can spew on or a person who comes too close to you.

    Leave your phone in the car when you shop and get in and get out. It’s not helping for people to not be together at the same time if you are spewing droplets while inside. Cover your face. Be a bandito or gangsta and wear a bandanna or rave mask. They don’t protect you like a healthcare worker mask but it’s not about you getting sick. It’s about you containing your droplets best you can.

    Sorry, that’s a PSA. :)

    Not true.
    https://www.providence.org/lp/100m-masks

    Also, per CDC guidance — homemade masks are acceptable when nothing else remains — which some are facing.

  108. 358
    S-Crow says:

    RE: ploam @ 349 – – yes, and you’ll see pressure on lower rents. If they decide to bail and become must-sell sellers (which is highly probable for those that cannot service the existing mortgage loans without income or have not put away a rainy day fund) then the supply will absolutely become a tsunami. We will have to wait and see.

    RE: richard @ 348 Don’t know yet. We will have to see what the policy makers have come up with in DC — if they can get their acts together. All we know is that HUD has put a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures to keep people in their homes in the event of loss of income/job/furlough etc.

    The .Gov has to do everything in it’s power, regardless of moral hazard, to keep real estate prices from falling. If they can’t then housing is literally going to crash under the weight of it’s own debt servicing load. Hopefully that won’t happen.

    – Housing Wire: Non-QM funding is drying up (QM means traditional Qualified Mortgage underwriting guidelines)….which means that some subprime and hard money funding is in trouble and has stopped. (This is the beginning of the liquidity crunch in lending that I’ve been looking out for and apparently is occurring)

  109. 359
    N says:

    Are the court houses still open to record real estate transactions?

  110. 360
    S-Crow says:

    RE: N @ 352 – Yes, but ops are a bit limited. No in person walkup recordings.

  111. 361
    ploam says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 351 – Just did a quick search and saw there are approximately 5–6k whole house/apt. Airbnb listings in Seattle. I’m sure not all of those are active, but a fraction of those could cause quite a ripple in the rental and housing market. That’s pretty terrifying.

  112. 362
    Justme says:

    About that “dumpster fire” put-down, and the sudden rash of people that have rarely or perhaps never posted before, but now post that they want to “leave” the blog.

    Gosh, could it be that it is just no fun for the bubble-mongers anymore now that everything is going to heck? Yeah, probably that is the reason. I don’t think the discourse has become any less polite than it used to be, but these bubble-mongers seem to have suddenly gotten much more sensitive and easily offended. Maybe a heartfelt “good riddance” is on order?

  113. 363
    QA Observer says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 351
    Thanks for your perspective from the trenches.

    What is wrong with letting the RE market fall? Markets are cyclical and housing is no exception. It’s wishful thinking and asinine to prop up speculation.
    The pendulum needs to switch to the renters of America and first time buyers. Long overdue. Over-leverage folks are going to get a nasty lesson.

  114. 364
    Toad37 says:

    RE: Justme @ 355 – It’s just a stale topic and stale website with the same old posters… this is a turning point tho… not necessarily sure what happens but it won’t look like it did b4 this … bet on that. It’s up to Tim to the direction this site goes.. but shoot, we have bigger things to think about right now than the quality of this site.

  115. 365
    Justme says:

    RE: Toad37 @ 356

    No sudden need to worry about the blog quality right now, is there? I haven’t seen any change. What I’m seeing is a bunch of bubble-mongers that claim the blog is no longer any good, probably because they don’t want people to see and read about how the bubble is now ending very badly.

  116. 366
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 357
    If these are people who have rarely or never posted before, how do you conclude that they are bubblemongers?

    Hmmm, perhaps the quality of posts is not changing.

  117. 367
    sfrz says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 346 – That Stealtor is desperately trying to avoid the soup line. There is no way the housing market can “kind of restart” after this health crisis. This is NOT a health crisis. This is global everything bubble crisis that is JUST beginning to deflate. The virus is the pin that pricked the everything bubble. There is no pushing this rat trap down the road any longer.

  118. 368
    David says:

    By Jeff @ 325:

    RE: David @ 324

    Sounds like you’re whining about your pathetic stock portfolio. What an over 50 year old turd you are.

    Speaking of turds, here’s another low-quality. low-IQ Democrat candidate for Florida Governor from last week when he was caught with a gay porn-star-prostitute. Gotta love you guys!!

    https://i.imgur.com/7cEOJms.png

  119. 369
    Justme says:

    More bad news, West Seattle bridge closing due to cracks in structure.

    https://t.co/rVJL7K1GTM

  120. 370
    David says:

    RE: Beano @ 337 – “Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.”

    – John Ioannidis, Stanford med school professor of epidemiology and population health

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

  121. 371
    QA Observer says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 351 – Thanks for your perspective from the trenches.

    What is wrong with letting the RE market fall? Markets are cyclical and housing is no exception. It’s wishful thinking and asinine to prop up speculation.
    The pendulum needs to switch to the renters of America and first time buyers. Long overdue. Over-leverage folks are going to get a nasty lesson.

  122. 372
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 357:

    No sudden need to worry about the blog quality right now, is there? I haven’t seen any change. What I’m seeing is a bunch of bubble-mongers that claim the blog is no longer any good, probably because they don’t want people to see and read about how the bubble is now ending very badly.

    People have been complaining about the quality for at least 6 months, complaining about particular posters for far longer.

    I have no doubt that the current situation will have an effect on the housing market, whether it is long-lasting or not, who knows. I haven’t been paying as much attention since we bought our new house and sold our old house, but I just pulled up my saved search that was for comps of our old home: SFH at least 2BR, 1.25+BA, under 750k South of Northgate and North of Columbia City and I don’t see anything sitting that would have sold a month ago. Nor do I see anything comparable to our current house that makes me regret that purchase.

    Obviously, if we are in a global pandemic that kills thousands/millions, the market will drop. And I guess I would regret that we bought an expensive house, but I don’t know, now that I have to be stuck here for multiple weeks with a toddler and dual WFH spouses… maybe it’s a good thing we have a bigger home with an office and a playroom.

  123. 373
    Toad37 says:

    Watch MSFT.

    If, and it’s a huge if, something went on with Gates and Epstein …and it actually is brought to light…well, … Seattle RE could have a serious volatility spike.

    Godspeed my friends. We’ll get through this. Don’t forget to check in on elderly neighbors.

  124. 374
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Toad37 @ 365

    Some of us ARE “the elderly neighbors”. :)

  125. 375

    RE: David @ 360
    Not To Worry David, The Laid Off Virus Folks Are Finding New Jobs Now in Home Delivery

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/clubs-closed-covid-19-strippers-205306427.html

    David, you can make big bucks driving ’em Around in Your Big Pink Cadillac. We’ll Nick name you the “Dr Detroit” of Florida…LOL

  126. 376

    Time to Forget the Da_n Flu and Dwell on Something Pleasant If We’re Isolated at Home Now…Gulping Down Our MJB and Rashening the Last Toilet Paper Roll.Read the brief Brief:

    Hey, I’m a seer? Trump and the DOJ AG announced Yesterday a New Executive Order Prohibiting Price Gouging and officially makes it illegal. They didn’t specifically mention “toilet paper”…but it appears its protected now too against the rude hoarders from eBay auctions.

    “… Inslee’s stay-at-home order: Here’s what you can and can’t do
    Gov. Jay Inslee last night ordered all Washington residents to stay at home, except for crucial activities, to slow “a human tragedy on a scale we cannot yet project.” His order went into effect immediately and will last at least two weeks. Here’s what’s allowed, what isn’t, and where to read the order. While many parks are now closed, others can stay open, and so can a long list of food-related businesses. We’ll be tracking more impacts in today’s live updates. (Photo: Elaine Thompson / The Associated Press)
    NEED TO KNOW

    Inslee’s order will land hard on the local economy. Business owners and economists are forecasting which sectors will be most vulnerable to this new wave of impacts…”

    SWE’s Take: Read the article above again. Did you catch the logic? You shall not, but you can anyway?

    “… Boeing is halting work at its factories in the Puget Sound area and making plans for the workers who will be affected in the temporary shutdown. Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines is cutting 200 flights a day as air travel falls off a cliff.
    Health officials are delivering home test kits as they launch a new way to track the spread of COVID-19. Here’s how to volunteer for a test…”

    SWE’s take: Before you go home from the work layoff…load up your coat pockets with precious “work” toilet paper…LOL

    “… School must go on. Washington state officials yesterday laid out what schools are required to do for students.
    A stay-at-home order is a start. The world’s leading experts on epidemics are describing the other drastic steps that must be taken to shut down the coronavirus. …”

    SWE’s take: What is the failure rate of working from computers instead of real schools? 90%???

    “…The bridge may be closed for months after inspectors found cracks that render the span structurally unsound. Drivers are detouring and Metro Transit is planning alternate routes to cope with the problem, which has been building for a long time. The bridge carries 100,000 vehicles and about 25,000 transit riders daily in more normal times. Check today’s traffic here. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times, file)..”

    SWE’s take: When the virus thing is over in about a month or two, welcome to horrifying gridlock with the shutdown of the cracked bridge.

    “…A man who was kidnapped during a carjacking in Kent was bound with duct tape and spent three hours in the trunk of his car, prosecutors say. “He felt that they were going to drive him into the mountains and kill him,” so he freed himself by rolling out of the trunk and onto a street, a police detective wrote. A Federal Way man has been charged.

    Fourteen inmates escaped from the Yakima County jail last night, and police are still searching for six of them. Here are photos of the men, who broke open a fire door…”

    SWE’s take: Kent is in the spot-light for continuous almost daily “inner city Detroit style crime” in Seattle area.

    Good News: Stocks roared back today…the GOP’s Senate Vote car is head-on to the Dem Destruction of the infamous Stimulus Bill…a game of “chicken”? I agreed with the the Senate McDonnell speech today, “we’re run by a bunch of idiots [village idiots in SWE speak]” delaying paychecks to laid-off American workers.

  127. 377
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 360

    David, sorry to say that my porn blocker blocked that link you shared. At least following smut provides you a fun distraction from your portfolio depression.

  128. 378

    This Real Estate Tidbit On Today’s News Too:

    “…https://thedailybreakingnews.com/business/mortgage-firms-brace-for-wave-of-missed-payments-as-coronavirus-slams-homeowners/..”

    SWE’s Take: Its like that commercial “We Need Our $CASH$ Now”….landlords and banks face apocalypse now? Ya probably can’t evict either, that’s been shutdown too…LOL….my investment advice several years ago was save $CASH$ and get it out of low interest 401Ks or better yet, I should have advised get out of stocks a few months ago. I had no idea, I heard Dem Feinstein sold all her stock [armed with illegal classified Senate briefing Insider Trading information?]…Lord Only Knows? A bunch of GOP got caught with their hands in this illegal cookie jar too….

  129. 379

    RE: Jeff @ 369
    Yes David:

    But she was wearing “pasties” its OK….hey, they allow “thong bikinis” on public beaches too. LOL

    Its only PG rated?

  130. 380
    Blurtman says:

    Give it up, you selfish seniors!

    Senior citizens would rather die than see the country’s economy ruined for their grandchildren, says Texas lieutenant governor amid outcry at Trump’s promise to get America ‘open for business’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8145515/Texas-lieutenant-governor-says-US-work.html

  131. 381
    Toad37 says:

    For a clue what’s going on behind the scenes; watch (or rewatch) Ricky Gervais’ opening monologue at the Golden Globes. Also, watch the recent videos on Ellen Degeneres from her home isolation.

    This is real life “Matrix” stuff…

  132. 382
    Joe says:

    RE: DavidE @ 313

    That is misinformed thinking based on an outdated rule set. Are you hearing anything about the Chinese or Japanese funding the latest rounds of endless money printing? The answer is no. There goes your theory.

    Don’t fight the facts in front of you, and don’t wish the past will return. It won’t.

  133. 383
    Joe says:

    The area I’ve been looking at was selling consistently for $320 sq/ft over the past year or so. This past couple weeks, I’ve seen houses new listings in the same area being offered for for $260 per sq/ft., and the new listings have nicer finishings. I sense the comps will be dropping fast this month.

  134. 384
    David says:

    By Jeff @ 369:

    RE: David @ 360

    David, sorry to say that my porn blocker blocked that link you shared. At least following smut provides you a fun distraction from your portfolio depression.

    Oh it is definitely not porn.

    Any Bernie Bros know if his stock speculation tax plan also included refunds for losses? Or was Bernie just interested in your gains? Asking for a friend.

  135. 385
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 376

    I wouldn’t know as I’m no Bernie Bro. My stock portfolio could care less about government bailouts, as I’ve been successfully shorting the market for three weeks, which means my portfolio is probably up about the same percentage yours is down.

    You could have made similar gains if you paid a bit more attention to the “fake” news since grim stories were coming out of China shutting itself down in January. It amazes me when folks in early March were saying we could not see this coming, when the evidence was there a month and a half earlier for anyone to see.

  136. 386
    HK28 says:

    “If you find the house that’s right for you and you’re qualified to buy it, there’s no reason to wait,”

    https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/virus-vs-real-estate-how-covid-19-is-impacting-the-seattle-housing-market

  137. 387
    David says:

    RE: Jeff @ 377 – How long did it take you shorting stocks to finally be right?

    How much did you lose in the past to finally be right?

  138. 388
    Jeff says:

    RE: David @ 378

    I admit I lost about $55k shorting Home Depot last summer, but I limited my losses fairly well. Since then I’ve been in short term bonds and chilled on my stock shorts, until opening a large variety of shorts starting March 15th this year. I was a few days late to the game on the current crash, but have more than made up for my previous losses. I will be going long stocks again by the way. Just not yet.

    Real estate will lag stocks a bit, and we just moved into a rental so we can put our modest home on 3 fertile acres on the market at the end of the two week stay at home order.

  139. 389
    David says:

    RE: Jeff @ 379 – I’ve pumped in $125k the past few days. BRK, BA, AAPL.

    I’m always long. For some reason, Marcus & Ally are still paying 1.5% on cash.

  140. 390

    Open Houses were already outlawed. They took the Open House function OUT of the system and are fining agents for trying to squeeze Open House language into the Marketing and Agent Remarks.

    As of today…agents aren’t allowed out at all really. Well, we got the notice today, but like all of the Governor’s new Stay Home; Stay Safe new rules, they aren’t enforced until Wednesday evening or so.

    This is a game changer. Agents not allowed out. Work from home only. Many of us never go into an office, so not a big change when the Offices close. But not allowed to show a house? Pretty sure that’s a first in history.

    They haven’t decided yet as to whether or not we can List a House for sale. Some have sold sight unseen already recently. I was planning to bring one on in Redmond, so I’ll be watching this carefully.

    Just a heads up and they are talking about STOPPING ALL DAYS ON MARKET calculations for this reason. NYC MLS already did that. Lots of changes happening….

  141. 391
    OA says:

    RE: David @ 380

    What do you guys think whether we reached bottom yet in the stock market? Just a general question, as I have no clue whatsoever.

  142. 392
    Erik says:

    If anyone reads my comments and believes them out there, get ready to dump your investments. I think we are getting closer to the end. If prices are still up 2022 til 2024, start getting ready to dump. We may start accelerating and it feels counterintuitive to dump. Do it anyway. Anyone reading my comments since we started buying in 2011, it’s time to prepare to GTFO. We will cash flow our way through the next recession picking up the unwanted houses in Seattle. Time to get our money back and much more!!!! Economy is using stimulus to artificially inflate prices before we sell.

    IWe get our early as 2022 and as late as 2024 while we are still safe. Get your leases to end by April 1st beginning 2022. Time to get paid.

    This is not a drill!!!

  143. 393
    David says:

    RE: OA @ 382 – I have no idea. They want to go up. But they will go down if more bad news keeps coming.

    Personally, I hope Trump rejects the Dems Wuhan Virus Bill.

  144. 394

    RE: OA @ 382

    Bottom is 13,275 on the DOW.

  145. 395
    don says:

    RE: OA @ 382

    David Tepper wants badly to buy, which is bullish.
    The West Seattle bridge could catch fire, which is exciting to some, but bearish.
    The risk of further decline is prodigious for the next two weeks if the epidemiology guys are correct. [jmo]

  146. 396
    OA says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 385

    Yes, if that happens.

  147. 397
    David says:

    I hope Trump rejects the whole Wuhan Virus Bill and goes with a MAASSSSSSIIIIIIIIVE QE to inflate the hell out of everything.

    Trump should turn this beast around on the Dems. Leave’em screamin!!!!

  148. 398
    Toad37 says:

    Alright guys… Is the conspiracy true? I have kno idea, but…I guess it’s possible! All of this stuff can be found on Youtube, btw… so…

    I think when we are getting updates, we are hearing about 2 different viruses; both of them being very real….

    Is the second “virus” an international sex trafficking ring that has a long list of very influential names on it. I think the list of CEO’s stepping down, Hollywood and Political Elite’s that have tested positive for Covid-19, etc. are involved; as either being guilty or maybe being protected if they helped bring the guilty to justice …

    The top of the list are “the” power players of the world. As mentioned earlier; Study the look on Ellen’s face in her current “quarantine” videos. And the call w/ Michael Obama may be telling as well. ;-)

    PS- As a grizzly side-note-

    Apparently, a lot of these presumed guilty parties are into something called Adrenochrome … you’ll get sick if you go down that rabbit-hole…that is why I did it for you.

    Hope America bounces back quickly… I think we will!

  149. 399

    RE: OA @ 387

    That would be equal to the % decline in the 2008 campaign cycle and includes future declines through March of 2021. I call “same as last time” worst case scenario.

  150. 400
    Beano says:

    By David @ 362:

    RE: Beano @ 337 – “Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.”

    – John Ioannidis, Stanford med school professor of epidemiology and population health

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

    Saw that.

    Honestly, the CV virus is tracking to be less deadly than H1N1 (12,500 per CDC). Back in 2009, Obama’s CDC projected 30-90k dead – never happened. We didn’t even really do anything in prep for it either and our system absorbed 12,500 dead just fine – nobody noticed.

    When the final report is written for this, so many will ask why, why the panic? That, or why no action for H1N1?

    There is no proportionality between the two events.

  151. 401
    OA says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 390

    Ardell – going to switch topics on you real quick. Is it me or is this listing a steal at this list price?

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/15230-NE-Woodland-Pl-98072/home/69357078

  152. 402
    David says:

    By Toad37 @ 389:

    Alright guys… Is the conspiracy true? I have kno idea, but…I guess it’s possible! All of this stuff can be found on Youtube, btw… so…

    I think when we are getting updates, we are hearing about 2 different viruses; both of them being very real….

    Is the second “virus” an international sex trafficking ring that has a long list of very influential names on it. I think the list of CEO’s stepping down, Hollywood and Political Elite’s that have tested positive for Covid-19, etc. are involved; as either being guilty or maybe being protected if they helped bring the guilty to justice …

    The top of the list are “the” power players of the world. As mentioned earlier; Study the look on Ellen’s face in her current “quarantine” videos. And the call w/ Michael Obama may be telling as well. ;-)

    PS- As a grizzly side-note-

    Apparently, a lot of these presumed guilty parties are into something called Adrenochrome … you’ll get sick if you go down that rabbit-hole…that is why I did it for you.

    Hope America bounces back quickly… I think we will!

    Um, what? There are definitely a lot of Leftist Weirdos in Hollywood AND the Democrat Party (lookin at you Bernie ‘Toddler Touchin’ Sanders, Bill ‘Always Rapin’ Clinton, Hillary ‘The Enabler’ Clinton, Joe ‘Always Sniffin’ Biden, Andrew ‘Anal-Meth’ Gillum, Ed ‘Black-Butt Master’ Buck, etc, etc.).

    BUT, that has nothing to do with the Wuhan Virus.

  153. 403
    David says:

    RE: David @ 393 – I forgot Harvey ‘Bill Clinton is Jealous’ Weinstein, Ed ‘The Best Vintage is 7’ Murray, etc., etc,

  154. 404
    Beano says:

    By OA @ 382:

    RE: David @ 380

    What do you guys think whether we reached bottom yet in the stock market? Just a general question, as I have no clue whatsoever.

    Likely no. But if we have hit a bottom, the market will certainly go back and get near or touch bottom again. I personally think SP/Dow will hit 2016 lows. Today doesn’t change that for me.

  155. 405
    Toad37 says:

    Let me ask the parents of children in Seattle schools a question… Are any of you alarmed on what they have been teaching your kids? y’all about to get a huge dose of reality. Also, anyone that has pimped these neighborhoods as having “great” schools, shame on you.

    “A child miseducated is a child lost.”

    – JFK

  156. 406
    OA says:

    By Toad37 @ 396:

    Let me ask the parents of children in Seattle schools a question… Are any of you alarmed on what they have been teaching your kids? y’all about to get a huge dose of reality. Also, anyone that has pimped these neighborhoods as having “great” schools, shame on you.

    Someone had too much wine today? Lol

    “A child miseducated is a child lost.”

    – JFK

  157. 407
    Intsokzen says:

    Speaking of Seattle area schools. How’s Mercer Island schools compared to say the Roosevelt/Epstein area in SPS? Is the former truly superior or do they just have more education focused parents?

  158. 408
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 394 – Here in Washington, our most famous Republican was Theodore R. (Ted) Bundy. He was a Rockefeller delegate, member of Dan Evans election campaign, and assistant to the chairman of the Washington State Republican party. He was famous for some other stuff too.

  159. 409
    David says:

    News is reporting that 50% of the UK is already infected. Where are the HUUUGE number of deaths?

    Italy has the oldest population in Europe. No wonder people are dying in larger numbers. When you’re as crispy-old as Joe Biden, you can literally die at any moment. Same for the Italians.

    Restart the country. Quarantine old folks for a while. They tend to stay close to home anyway.

  160. 410
    David says:

    Joe Biden has dementia. He hasn’t even been out in public for quite a while. He should be rested and ready. Instead we get this:

    https://twitter.com/tristan_puig/status/1242549724911030272

  161. 411
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 399:

    RE: David @ 394 – Here in Washington, our most famous Republican was Theodore R. (Ted) Bundy. He was a Rockefeller delegate, member of Dan Evans election campaign, and assistant to the chairman of the Washington State Republican party. He was famous for some other stuff too.

    Ted Bundy was a husky.

  162. 412
    David says:

    By Juststoppedby @ 402:

    By Whatsmyname @ 399:

    RE: David @ 394 – Here in Washington, our most famous Republican was Theodore R. (Ted) Bundy. He was a Rockefeller delegate, member of Dan Evans election campaign, and assistant to the chairman of the Washington State Republican party. He was famous for some other stuff too.

    Ted Bundy was a husky.

    You got 1 Republican serial killer. BUT, most of the rest were and are Democrats. It took Florida to fix the Bundy situation. In fact, the #1 serial killer is a black guy who puts Ted Bundy to shame.

  163. 413
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 403 – Name them, and show their affiliation with the Democrat party.

  164. 414
    Juststoppedby says:

    By David @ 403:

    By Juststoppedby @ 402:

    By Whatsmyname @ 399:

    RE: David @ 394 – Here in Washington, our most famous Republican was Theodore R. (Ted) Bundy. He was a Rockefeller delegate, member of Dan Evans election campaign, and assistant to the chairman of the Washington State Republican party. He was famous for some other stuff too.

    Ted Bundy was a husky.

    You got 1 Republican serial killer. BUT, most of the rest were and are Democrats. It took Florida to fix the Bundy situation. In fact, the #1 serial killer is a black guy who puts Ted Bundy to shame.

    I didn’t say a word about race or politics.

    I merely pointed out that Ted Bundy was a husky.

  165. 415

    RE: OA @ 392

    No. I’m not allowed to comment on individual listings in public.. Have your agent send you the history on that. Higher prices have recently been tested. Hint…not on market “5 hours”.

  166. 416
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 404:

    RE: David @ 403 – Name them, and show their affiliation with the Democrat party.

    I will give you $10k if you can find the serial killer’s last political party affiliation and show that fewer than 75% were Democrats. On the other hand, if you cannot prove it, you owe me $5k.

  167. 417
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 404:

    RE: David @ 403 – Name them, and show their affiliation with the Democrat party.

    I’ll start:

    John Wayne Gacy = Staunch registered Democrat active as a Dem Party Precinct Captain.
    Randy Kraft = worked on the Robert Kennedy campaign.
    Dorothea Puente = registered Democrat who was a major contributor to Jerry Brown campaigns.

    Plus, of all the murder cases I’ve ever handled in my prior criminal practice, not one of them was a likely Republican (% of confidence ~98%)

  168. 418
    OA says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 405:

    RE: OA @ 392

    No. I’m not allowed to comment on individual listings in public.. Have your agent send you the history on that. Higher prices have recently been tested. Hint…not on market “5 hours”.

    It was sold for lower 800s in 2016, kinda odd that’s its basically same price as in 2016.

  169. 419
    QA Observer says:

    Yellow Dog is the new SWE, but with a Kary annoyance.

  170. 420
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 407
    I’m not taking a bet on your sideshow. I’m sure you have a much greater knowledge of serial killers than I would ever hope to, but…

    Gacy, staunch??? Wikipedia says short term deal he later said was to make up for lack of love by daddy.
    Kraft was a “staunch Republican” before he became a Democrat per Wikipedia
    Nothing about Puentes politics in Wikipedia.

    I would suspect the indigent murderers you represented never bothered with any party. Thank you for your service.

    Getting back to the original subject of weirdos; what is the party of that President who leers at his own daughter, was accused of rape by her mother, and has about 2 dozen sex abuse claims ranging from sexual harassment to rape and attempted rape?

  171. 421
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 381

    About the stopping the Days On Market (DOM) counters for MLS systems, whether we are talking about NYC MLS actually doing it or NWMLS planning to do it:

    Make no mistake about it, the DOM manipulation is classical market manipulation behavior by industry insiders. Rather than publishing the truth abut what is going on in markets, the Real Estate Industrial Complex will try to cook the books and hide the stats that show what is actually going on. Business as usual, Covid19 version.

  172. 422
    OA says:

    By Justme @ 411:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 381

    About the stopping the Days On Market (DOM) counters for MLS systems, whether we are talking about NYC MLS actually doing it or NWMLS planning to do it:

    Make no mistake about it, the DOM manipulation is classical market manipulation behavior by industry insiders. Rather than publishing the truth abut what is going on in markets, the Real Estate Industrial Complex will try to cook the books and hide the stats that show what is actually going on. Business as usual, Covid19 version.

    The level of delusion that your posts have been displaying lately is quite worrisome. If I were you I would spend all your effort and study the local real estate market here, and in case there are any dips you’d be able to identify a good deal and finally buy yourself a house.

  173. 423
    kenmorem says:

    for those foxnews slurping dumbshits on this site (david, SE, erik, etc), here’s some comedy for you:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKbwDf51bA&feature=emb_logo

    i’m sure you won’t notice the change in brainwashing you experienced (hoax to reality and now soon to be restart the country), but hopefully this can elucidate your minds a little.

    doubtful, but worth a try.

  174. 424
    Justme says:

    RE: OA @ 412

    Getting pretty desperate, are you?

  175. 425

    RE: Justme @ 411

    They are talking about it since no one is allowed to show a house here starting 5:30 tomorrow. Basically that would put it “Temp off Market” during that time. The time no one can show it will likely not show as days on market.

    I don’t think NYC was the same issue but I’ll check with some agent friends there.

    “Days on Redfin” is not an mls calculation, so unless Redfin makes their own policy I don’t think that will change. Same with Zillow.

  176. 426

    RE: OA @ 408

    Now you look for the reason why. I can’t say that here but it’s fairly obvious.

  177. 427
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 413
    I don’t watch Fox News Kenmoron. I’ve seen Fox News and it looks like a big act. I swear the people they interview on there are actors and actresses. Complete garbage in my opinion. MSDNC, NBC, CNN are complete garbage just as Fox News is garbage. I read the Wall Street Journal, Seattle Times, and Trump tweets. Seattle Times is completely biased to DNC and Trump Tweets are completely biased to RNC. Wall Street Journal is the best and least biased of the 3 as long as you avoid editorials. They do announce if an article is an editorial and I skip over it usually. I like Seattle Times because it’s local and Trump tweets because he tells you what’s coming and it usually comes to fruition.

    I think Ardell likes Wall Street Journal as well because they don’t have the political nonsense.

    You think you’re smarter than me? Smarter than me at what? You don’t seem very smart or successful to me, unless I’m totally missing something here.

  178. 428
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 385 – Hi Ardell. Recall Fauci said we were hoping to overreact to the pandemic, and not underreact. I think around 18,000 is the floor.

  179. 429

    RE: Intsokzen @ 398
    You Sound Fairly New to the Area, So I Totally Understand Your School Question

    In the 70s the Seattle area Baby Boomers had great numbers total; like about the same public school attendance totals as today’s 1.7 [without immigration] and 2.2 [with immigration] “birthrate” windows. Both are negative growth of children in public schools. Yet we spend twice the staffing costs of the 70s [inflation adjusted] with horrifying #35 in the world quality. Money ain’t fixin’ it, its got worse. Undocumented immigration is undocumented, its fuzzy math to add that in too, Lord only knows how big it is. Washing St schools lag Kansas schools’ quality and yet the property tax is half in Kansas, compared to Seattle area.

    My advice after weathering the subpar schools in the Seattle area the last couple decades with two kids: get ’em to community colleges for 9th grade math on up and physics/chemistry science schooling ASAP; its cheaper than private schools [and who has time to drive ’em to private school anyway, working full-time] and the teachers have real science college credentials. Work around the subpar public school math/science problem by using computer based high school tutoring [a technical skilled parent can “quickly” help directly there] to score the diploma, then train the pupils math/science using almost all college tests, not “subpar” public school home work cheating.

  180. 430
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 415

    Related:

    Central Florida MLS (StellarMLS) talks out both sides of mouth: One side says MLS will maintain integrity of the Days on Market (DOM) statistic. Other side says you can stop the DOM counter by flipping bit called Temporary Off Market (TOM). #marketmanipulation #NWMLS next?

    https://twitter.com/coqumragep279/status/1242842184094646273

  181. 431

    Stocks Going Back Up, We Were All “Chicken Littles” screaming the Sky Was Falling?

    Except David, and now he can smugly smile? Lord Only Knows, but he’s right, give the stock market time and it always rebounds, historically. Now pick up the phone and transfer it all into stocks with David before the “April flu decline” surge, and gulp your shaky/nervous hand MJB mug; read the brief Brief:

    “… Who counts as ‘essential workers’ under stay-home order?
    “If you asked our customers, they’d say we’re essential,” says Ambika Singh, founder of Armoire, a clothing rental company. But the state may not agree. Its definition of essential businesses that can keep the doors open during the stay-home order is causing plenty of confusion. Farmers markets have been controversial, for example, while pot and liquor stores are staying open and enjoying a boom. Here’s a full list of who can keep working. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: Booze, toilet paper, coffee and Pot aren’t essential items? Then what are?

    “…Layoffs have begun as the aviation collapse hits Washington companies, for which “Boeing’s health is a huge, huge worry.”..”

    SWE’s take: Boeing had the MAX virus “death spiral” a long time before the flu virus hit.

    “…Workers and businesses affected by the outbreak: We’ve pulled together a page of resources to help you find information on grants, unemployment benefits, emergency food programs, rent assistance and more…”

    SWE’s Take: If it means trying to get through those “never-ending” phone recording wait lines, use a stamp if you can and avoid calling…if it fails anyway, at least you didn’t waste all your time finding that out anyway, hopefully.

    “…Even as restaurants are hurting, many of them are helping people in need. Frelard Tamales, above, is buzzing with activity these days as the owner, his parents and others make free sack lunches for children who are out of school. “It’s a cost, but it’s not a burden,” Osbaldo Hernández says. It’s among several Seattle-area restaurants sacrificing profit to help their communities. (Photo: Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)…”

    SWE’s take: How does the free food get to the general area kids [costly Grubhub?]? Or does it just go to the restaurant’s friends and relatives only?

    “… A Washington State Patrol trooper was struck and killed by a fleeing driver yesterday on I-5 in Chehalis during a police pursuit. Justin R. Schaffer, 28, had been a trooper for seven years. A memorial service is pending, but because of coronavirus-related restrictions on public gatherings, the State Patrol said it would “consider how to best move forward in honoring our lost Trooper appropriately.”..”

    SWE’s take: The almost daily “inner city Detroit” Crime report for the Seattle area includes dead cops too…

    “…The sudden closure of the West Seattle Bridge requires instant traffic detours that nobody had time to plan. City officials are scrambling to cope with a closure that’s likely to last for months, and encouraging people to keep working from home even after the coronavirus is gone…”

    SWE’s Take: Now the new “toll” tunnel that cost billions is a moot point. Ya can’t drive Seattle hwy 99 any way until 2021? Erik can sell ya a Seattle area condo closer to the new worsening city center traffic mayhem…

    Good News: The crowds at WINCO exclude the usual 3-4 small kids per customer now with 6 foot safe distancing….moving through their old “jammed” aisles is much less dense and easier now…LOL…the paper product aisle is a complete joke now, its always empty…

  182. 432
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 421 – The internet is a great amplifier of information and disinformation. The declining fortunes of the MSM means they really have to hit the fear and terror buttons to sell their crappy products.

  183. 433

    RE: Blurtman @ 422
    Well…It Sounds Like Trickle Up Checks in the Mail Soon to the Bottom 90% Household Income Americans

    I do hope the $2T stimulus makes “arrogant rich elite” companies that outsource engineering or whole product lines eat cake. Ya have trickle down economics, how about trickle up instead?

    I see the hotel industry, except Trump they say, may get aid. “Democrat Feinstein and her GOP crook henchmen” got their’s already from illegal Insider Trading and getting out of the stock market first.

  184. 434

    Microsoft Quality Going Down the Proverbial Globalist Toilet Too? Even with patches?

    https://www.engadget.com/2020-03-23-microsoft-windows-vulnerability-adobe-type-manager.html

    My old 2007 O/S still works and they still patch it free too. Perhaps the old MSFT O/S is better quality than the new? Lord only knows what’s on those patches they allege were discontinued but weren’t ? Hacker virus invasion doors? LOL My “best” guess now is they’re related to advertisement data gathering…snooping IOWs….so of course they’ll never terminate them, even on old obsolete more reliable O/S S/W.

  185. 435

    RE: Justme @ 420

    Temp off Market has always been a Status in MLS Systems for any time they have to stop showings. Usually used for someone sick in the house or a pipe burst that they have to fix.

    Temp off Market does seem an appropriate Status right now and stopping the clock prevents every single house from having to do that manually. It means NO SHOWINGS during that time, though I have seen some houses go Pending while Temp Off Market.

    It’s not a new thing. I’m pretty sure the New York one didn’t coincide with an official No Showings Order though. That’s just bad.

    If you don’t show some reasonable sign of thinking and just want to throw mud at everything that moves, then you are not ever credible. I may be “an agent” and consequently in your mind biased, but I’m honest and flexible in my thinking.

    If no one is allowed to see it…it is not “on market” is the point.

  186. 436

    RE: Blurtman @ 418

    Remember my “calls” are not purely virus related but still hanging to the Election Theory I always had before the virus. The virus was just the available kindling. This could turn into a Credit Crisis same as last time as example.

  187. 437
    OA says:

    RE: Justme @ 414

    Not at all, I’m 32 yo, own my home without a mortgage, have a great pile of cash, have money in stocks that I haven’t touched (in addition to 401k), and not a penny of debt to my name.

    I’m not desperate by any means. I just really don’t like negative nancys like you, especially picking on people like Ardell that add tremendous value here.

    So what’s your story? ..(I know you won’t answer this)..

  188. 438
    OA says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 416:

    RE: OA @ 408

    Now you look for the reason why. I can’t say that here but it’s fairly obvious.

    Besides it being right off the main busy road, not much else that’s obvious to me.

  189. 439

    RE: Erik @ 417

    At the moment I’m watching Closing Bell. Watching that last 15 minutes of the market has been an every day event for me as witnessing the last minute scramble is always an eye opener when the market is this volatile.

  190. 440
    David says:

    By kenmorem @ 413:

    for those foxnews slurping dumbshits on this site (david, SE, erik, etc), here’s some comedy for you:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKbwDf51bA&feature=emb_logo

    i’m sure you won’t notice the change in brainwashing you experienced (hoax to reality and now soon to be restart the country), but hopefully this can elucidate your minds a little.

    doubtful, but worth a try.

    I don’t have cable TV and have not for a very looooong time. I listen to Sean Hannity on Sirius sometimes traveling. On my recent RV trip to Alaska and then to Florida I listened to Hannity quite a lot. But also a ton of CNBC. CNBC stops broadcasting business news on the weekends, and that is depressing.

    However, Sean Hannity and Jim Cramer, etc are under pressure to have a show EVERY day. Of course they are going to say one-off things sometimes.

    Joe Biden, on the other hand, cannot take a weekend off if he were elected.

    Biden’s eyes are dead. He is a shell of tight skin and squinty hollowness. The Chinese will eat us alive if he is elected.

    BUT, just as I have refused to cooperate with the King County DA, the people deserve the leaders they choose – and the consequences.

  191. 441

    RE: OA @ 392

    This is a good one to watch as to close price. Went straight to Pending with no Inspection Contingency last night, just before the shutdown but with knowledge that there would be a shutdown.

    https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/12324-NE-100th-Pl-98033/home/511668

  192. 442
    David says:

    Well, I sold my properties in Seattle last year. Bought a house – in CASH – here in Florida. Put all that money into Marcus.com at almost 2% yield (now 1.5% and not 0.25%/). Was going to buy a house in CASH upon my return to Seattle two months ago.

    Am now putting money into the following securities and hope I pay for the house!:

    BRK/B
    WFC
    BLK
    AAPL
    QQQ

  193. 443
    David says:

    RE: David @ 432 – Hopefully G_d will keep an eye out for me. But as I remind the pacifists amongst us, Jesus was executed first – before he rose from the dead.

    I hope to avoid that first fate in the stock market.

    I was about to buy BA but then they canceled their dividend last week and NOW the Government is going to be taking stock from Boeing and diluting the shares. PLUS, Boeing has to repay the debt.

  194. 444
    David says:

    About to pass a $1,200/person Wuhan Virus Bill. I hope the marijuana shops around Seattle are staffed up.

  195. 445
    Toad37 says:

    Good information here my friends… It’s unheard of and should be a big wake up call. Track the CEO resignations. We are in the middle of the storm.

    https://www.resignation.info/

  196. 446
    Toad37 says:

    Is it just me or did the media portray Obama and Michael, er.. Michelle, as doing no wrong.

    And again, is it just me, or has this same media portrayed trump as doing nothing right?

    When too many traders are on the same side of the boat that usually means they are wrong.

    “the day the Federal Reserve Act was passed, “the Constitution ceased to be the governing covenant of the American people, and our liberties were handed over to a small group of international bankers…

    If I had to guess I’d say the IRS and the Fed is being restructured/dismantled as we speak…. hard to time these things tho, because huge things are constantly happening….

    load up on popcorn,,, this will beat the shit out of any Marvel movie…

  197. 447
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Toad37 @ 436 – Diversity means everyone but white men. Real Indians, fake Indians, Spanish Indians (Hispanics), and even Indians from India are included. Even folks from the most economically successful race in the US are included. Just not white men.

  198. 448
    David says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 437 – We certainly should never forget the open racism of the Democrats for 10 years during and after the Obama Administration celebrating OPENLY AND NOTORIOUSLY the death of white people. To their credit, they did just limit it to ‘old white men’, but everyone knows they meant women and children as well (code words).

    Being part black myself, I’ll head off the sycophantic leftist Seattle-man by pointing out the following in history to any comparisons in history they try to make:

    A racially pissed off black man wanted to send black folks back to Africa on his ships operated by “The Black Star” lines (as opposed to the mainstream White Star Line). J. Edgar Hoover had the FBI go after this organization to stop this from happening. America has been very good to black people as compared to any available alternative worldwide.

  199. 449
    Toad37 says:

    Can anyone help me locate a decent source that keeps track of how many children go missing every year? Might be enlightening. is the number big?

  200. 450
    Toad37 says:

    Interesting video if you get a minute

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu93JondpsI

  201. 451

    RE: Blurtman @ 422
    Yes Blurtman

    I see cable news uses charities like Shriner Hospital as a main advertiser and that $500 hearing aids from Walmart “whatever they can get” ad is over and over again too….the College Bowls use pizza and fast food outlets as their cash cows and “new” stadium names…the big money dried up for the media and newspapers a long time ago. And aren’t you sick of that Tom Selleck reverse mortgage ad “I know what you’re thinking”….this is a hopeless “low wage” service economy today and $30/40hr senior manufacturing experience takes a long time to develop to replace the “village idiots” squandering of our economy…I heard truckers are now making $45K/Yr avg, about $20/hr. Good gosh, I remember when truckers made decent pay too a few decades ago. Taxi cab driver make less….

    Join Dave and Put All Your $CASH$ chips down on stocks now, and nervously drink your MJB, read the brief Brief:

    “… What Congress’ massive coronavirus package means for Washingtonians
    The mammoth, $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package passed by the U.S. Senate last night could unlock billions of dollars for Washington state governments, transit, businesses and hospitals — and you could get a direct payment, too. Here’s what we know about the effects on our region’s economy and daily life. The fine print includes special deals for some companies, but Boeing may balk at the strings that are attached. (Photo: Amanda Snyder / The Seattle Times…”

    SWE’s take: I hear $75K/Yr per capita and lower now to get like $600-1200 checks, married twice that income. But the rules are still ambiguous, and I imagine the tax rules can change things too…

    “…The Washington State Trooper who was killed on I-5 was deliberately struck by a driver who then swerved toward a second trooper, investigators say. The chain of events that led to Trooper Justin Schaffer’s death this week began with an alleged theft of a bottle of lighter fluid from a minimart…”

    SWE’s take: Hey, those Bic Lighters hold FAR less propane now and their price doubled to about $2/3 each…

    Good News: The roads are half empty now…..if you have an “essential errand”, do it now.

  202. 452

    The Renown “Upscale” Cheesecake Restaurant in South Center Being Evicted for Delinquent Rent to Landlord; Subway Restaurants Too

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/cheesecake-factory-subway-other-major-retailers-tell-landlords-they-cant-pay-april-rent-due-to-coronavirus-141920106.html

    SWE’s Take: Have you been in CheeseCake restaurant before? It has like 1 hr waiting lines in a jammed lobby for a “squished” together crowded flu spreading table, elbow to elbow seating. Subway means gloved hands [covered with germs anyway?] grabbing your mostly lettuce sandwich. The waiting lines are crowded and lack hygiene too…

  203. 453
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 438 – While appreciating your mastery of the newest and cleverest white supremacy memes, they are neither new, nor clever. This is a housing blog on the opposite coast from you. After all this time, can’t you find a friend in Florida?

  204. 454
    David says:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 443 – Obviously ignoring the facts you are.

    I’m busy plotting a house purchase in metro-Seattle.

    Also hoping to see Seattle declared its own county and break up King County into several counties to void the Sawant types.

  205. 455
    Toad37 says:

    Question- is there a need for banks if we move to a digital currency that essentially settles transactions immediately?

  206. 456
    Brianna says:

    Who else wishes there was another blog out there for swe to post his daily updates, and all political comments can go there, and to leave this blog just for information and discussion about the local real estate market? 🙋‍♀️

  207. 457
    Long Time Long Time says:

    Rather than start his own blog called Grab the Yuban, SWE comes here to post news we can all get elsewhere, and editorial nobody asked for.

    He is a one man freak show

  208. 458
    Whatsmyname says:

    RE: David @ 444 – whoa? Turns out you prefer Seattle-man after all, or is it too difficult to manage a dungeon where there are no basements?

    What kind of house are you looking for?

  209. 459

    RE: Brianna @ 445

    It’s been kind of fun this morning watching the new listings go up with showing instructions and Redfin Tour saying there are showings today at 3, 4, 5 etc. Given agents are not allowed to show property as of last night.

    Someone didn’t get the memo.

    Don’t expect an agent to show you a house during the shutdown.

    We aren’t allowed out. Not even to hang a picture on a wall in a vacant house that isn’t for sale yet unless we own the house. For some strange reason I want to hang that picture in the worst way!

  210. 460
    Juststoppedby says:

    By Brianna @ 445:

    Who else wishes there was another blog out there for swe to post his daily updates, and all political comments can go there, and to leave this blog just for information and discussion about the local real estate market? 🙋‍♀️

    SWE is similar to a self-absorbed millennial who seems to think that people are interested in whatever bs he spews out.

    He drowns out the other conversations, and I get the sense that pretty much everybody would rather than he moved on.

    Or they pat him on the head and smile politely to humor him.

  211. 461
    N says:

    @Ardell – As of today when I click “tour a home” on redfin they notify you they cannot show homes in your area.

  212. 462
    David says:

    By Whatsmyname @ 446:

    RE: David @ 444 – whoa? Turns out you prefer Seattle-man after all, or is it too difficult to manage a dungeon where there are no basements?

    What kind of house are you looking for?

    I’m looking for new on the East Side. Probably closer to Issaquah.

    But I have admittedly now put some of my house funds into the stock market. I expect asset prices to rise substantially over the next two years. I’m hoping stocks go up over the next 8 months. I’m willing to delay the house purchase which was supposed to happen now or even 2 months ago.

    But mostly I am awaiting the launch of the AtlasV just outside my house right this moment. in hold right now.

  213. 463
    Erik says:

    RE: David @ 450
    I agree, asset prices are about to really go up. I‘m too conservative to gamble my asset money in the stock market. I’m focused on getting my recent investment rented out and buying another deal. I think if I stay focused on Seattle real estate, it’s pretty tough to not end up financially free, which is my goal. I want the income from my job to be extra money for vacations, college, etc. and let my cash flow support my family.

  214. 464
    dw8928 says:

    RE: Erik @ 451 – My butt is so clenched it is unbelievable. LOL. I’m taking a chance for sure in securities.

    But how many times can you sit on large amounts of cash at a time like this.

  215. 465

    RE: N @ 449

    Good! Maybe they read my comment. :)

  216. 466

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 452

    Actually I’m still seeing it except now it says you can’t go today but you can go tomorrow starting at 9 a.m.

  217. 467
    n says:

    The $2 trillion stimulus will slam the mortgage industry — unless the Fed comes to the rescue
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/mortgage-payment-coronavirus-stimulus-federal-reserve/index.html

  218. 468
    Beano says:

    By David @ 444:

    RE: Whatsmyname @ 443 – Obviously ignoring the facts you are.

    I’m busy plotting a house purchase in metro-Seattle.

    Also hoping to see Seattle declared its own county and break up King County into several counties to void the Sawant types.

    This.

    Can’t stand the fact King Co is so huge – pointless. Not at all local government. There is none here.

  219. 469
    Toad37 says:

    LOL! Read that picket sign or what ever it is … read as a run on sentence…. :-)

    The good guys are sending us a message.

    Also, 400 pizzas?

    Research Pizzagate conspiracy if you haven’t heard of it…. a ton of media outlets debunked it as false.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/politics/coronavirus-bill-hillary-clinton-pizzas-trnd/index.html

  220. 470
    Brianna says:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 448

    I usually just scroll past, but with some of the other political posts on here too, it was getting a bit much!

    I don’t mind some political discussion- especially as certain decisions will have an effect on the RE market. But some of the political posts on here don’t have anything to do with that.

  221. 471
    Brianna says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 447

    In my RE search- I’ve seen quite a few return to market after going pending (possibly pending inspection, I don’t always check to see how far the transaction goes before failing); I’ve seen quite a few price drops, but also quite a few seem to be going pending, and often quickly too. I know the effects of this shutdown will take a while to show up. But if the buyer demand stays high, the inventory low, the interest rates also low, will this shutdown just create a pent up demand when this is over?

  222. 472
    Beano says:

    By Brianna @ 458:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 447

    In my RE search- I’ve seen quite a few return to market after going pending (possibly pending inspection, I don’t always check to see how far the transaction goes before failing); I’ve seen quite a few price drops, but also quite a few seem to be going pending, and often quickly too. I know the effects of this shutdown will take a while to show up. But if the buyer demand stays high, the inventory low, the interest rates also low, will this shutdown just create a pent up demand when this is over?

    I’m gonna go out on a limb and suggest buyers of +$700k housing aren’t flipping burgers. We don’t know yet what kind of jobs make up the 3.3 million newly unemployed. It’s probably a lot of burger flippers.

    That said, any segment of housing that gets soft is a threat.

    We must factor in the stimulus package – which gives home owners 12 months forbearance. This could work out or it could just kick problems into 2021.

    I bet it takes 18 mos for clarity.

  223. 473
    David says:

    RE: Beano @ 459 – The Wuhan Virus Bill is paying nurder flippers WAY more in unemployment than they would get working. Though only for 4 months.

    I’m curious to see what kind of disfunction this causes – even workplace violence.

  224. 474
    Beano says:

    RE: David @ 460

    No doubt a large element of the great virus panic of 2020 is about trying to change the way the world works. I’m not saying this was planned, it wasn’t, but it’s an opportunity for far leftists to re-shape our system.

    Deep down this is arousing for them.

  225. 475

    RE: Brianna @ 458

    A lot of things are happening. Some people who were planning to sell this year will think it’s a bad time to sell period and not come on market in 2020 at all. Personally I think that will be a mistake unless they are willing to ride the market down and back up again, which could take years.

    Some are coming temp off market, so the Active Inventory numbers are a bit diluted. I’m seeing just over 200 of those right now, but it’s only day one of no showings allowed.

    I don’t think Pent up Demand of Buyers is going to be key here because some will just drop out altogether just as some sellers will. I think the first thing will be a wave of new listings, though since we are not allowed to prep or stage them during Stay at Home that will likely grow from day 1 through Day 14 or so after the No Work for Agents is lifted. I already have my power washer booked and the carpet install booked but none of that can even start until the Stay Home order is lifted.

    So on Day ONE of the Order being lifted there will be new listings from people who supposedly prepped them before the Order ;). I think the number of listings and the number of buyers will put us at about 2 buyers per house instead of 8 to 12 buyers per house that we had before this went crazy on us. So the stats will not look drastic and the sold prices will not be available for 30 days after that.

    I think anything GOOD that lists will sell quickly…but we already had that before this started. I think the number of offers will be fewer but we were having 8 and 13, so will you notice fewer?

    I can’t post the link but the last house I showed on 2/24 was listed for $1.2M with offer review date of 2/28 and closed at $1,460,000 on 3/12. How would that play out today? Likely would still sell sight unseen because it was pretty much a house you didn’t need to see. It was either a teardown or a full rehab kind of place. Inspection would have been a waste of money and frankly seeing it was a waste of time. Would it sell for a bit less right now? Maybe…maybe not.

    So if the prices “drop” they may still be at or over asking. Of course I work in the areas everyone wants to be because I tend to focus on small pockets with high ranked schools.

    I’m certain the real estate market will not move as one big mass of the same. I already started seeing weak houses looking over a freeway not selling at the beginning of the virus. So I think you will have 10% to 20% of houses selling well and high and 40% selling OK if seller’s aren’t greedy when they get an offer and 40% going down pretty fast. This on a TriCounty/Case Shiller kind of basis. The bigger picture.

    At the moment I’m freaking out about tonight’s everyone come out at 8 p.m. and Make a Joyful Noise. Pissing me off for some reason. I hope it doesn’t turn into a big block party.

  226. 476
    Toad37 says:

    “high ranking schools”

    now that is funny,,, something tells me the data used to “rank” schools is about to change.

  227. 477

    RE: Beano @ 459

    Maybe you know this. I’m confused about why they are saying many businesses will close forever. I hear that a lot about restaurants. Why wouldn’t they be able to come back? Probably more of an issue for restaurants that have had and may continue to have take out only.

    I’m thinking restaurants make a lot of their money off the bar? I remember hearing that years ago. So being able to only do food doesn’t really help them? I’ve been in Banking and Real Estate for 50 years. I don’t know much about why someone couldn’t come back if they have a small business that is closed for a couple of weeks.

  228. 478

    RE: Toad37 @ 463

    For years people have come to me refusing to look at any house that wasn’t an 8, 9, or 10 Rank. Then it was 9 or 10 with 8 not being good enough.

    I did the same thing when I relocated with my kids when my husband was IT and we moved to areas we did not know. When you don’t know an area it seems to be a fallback position. For me it started when we moved to Florida and we drove to the Elementary School of a nice house we liked just to see the school and we passed a sign nearby that said “Food and Guns”. I was like NO. No. Not sending my kids to that school. LOL!

    Back then we didn’t have “rank” and I used % on Free Lunch. High Ranked Schools tend to also have the lowest % on Free Lunch. If the numbers says ZERO, that means EVERYONE is on Free Lunch. So ZERO can mean worst vs best.

  229. 479
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 464 – Apparently the collective memory of what the Great Depression was like has been lost. But I remember extremely well the sound of anguish listening to people who lived when they were kids.

    NOTHING had a greater impact on them than their parents struggling to get food, etc. and not having a job.

    NOT ONE ever complained about a disease being the worst situation they ever faced.

    People should push back against Inslee’s order. Push back against the MLS too.

  230. 480
    kenmorem says:

    By David @ 466:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 464
    People should push back against Inslee’s order. Push back against the MLS too.

    you first. lead us oh fearless one.

  231. 481
    David says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 467 – I do by going out and doing whatever I want all day, every day.

  232. 482
    Beano says:

    By David @ 468:

    RE: kenmorem @ 467 – I do by going out and doing whatever I want all day, every day.

    Same.

    It’s not that difficult or heroic.

    Dr. Birx exposed the entire field of epidemiology today. They are frauds and are never accurate or close to accurate. Most of their failed work has fueled this panic. Should we be concerned? Yes. Panicked? No.

  233. 483
    Beano says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 464:

    RE: Beano @ 459

    Maybe you know this. I’m confused about why they are saying many businesses will close forever. I hear that a lot about restaurants. Why wouldn’t they be able to come back? Probably more of an issue for restaurants that have had and may continue to have take out only.

    I’m thinking restaurants make a lot of their money off the bar? I remember hearing that years ago. So being able to only do food doesn’t really help them? I’ve been in Banking and Real Estate for 50 years. I don’t know much about why someone couldn’t come back if they have a small business that is closed for a couple of weeks.

    It’s certainly a fair question Ardell.

    I’d assume most people are unaware just how many restaurants/bars break even or worse. It’s probably not far off from 50%.

    And I’d assume that many smaller storefront businesses that make up the heart of our cities, towns and neighborhoods are in a similar financial picture.

    For these businesses, the owner is often working at the business 5-7 days a week and the “profits” are barely enough to pay business bulls and probably not enough to pay personal bills.

    It’s common for many busy, seemingly successful restaurants or bars to be in this position. Sure, that’s partially mismanagement, but it’s not often gross incompetence. Fact is these businesses have little profit.

    Rent, labor, taxes/regulations suck up so much cash. And all of these items have outpaced inflation in this city.

    These businesses were turned off by government decree – but the bills remain. For many they need to make money so they close up and find jobs or close up and preserve retirement/savings to try another business.

    The structural change that will murder business this time is the huge shift away from meals prepared out of home to inside the home. Restaurants and bars are perceived as virus risks. Sadly I don’t think there is any evidence of this, certainly compared to Walmart – the reality is a lot of the out of home $ is gone for a long time.

    48% of food dollars is for meals prepared out of home.

    A massive chunk of this will shift to grocery. I predict 40% of these dollars will vanish for 2020.

    There is not going to be enough money to go around – even for many previously successful bars/restaurants. The fallout will hurt culture everywhere. It will take years to build back.

    If you had already established your own takeout distribution, you might do okay – but even then, I doubt it. Everyone is going to take a massive haircut in this space.

    We have a bar/restaurant depression on our hands. I hope congress can somehow figure this out – if they are going to bailout everyone else.

  234. 484
    Blurtman says:

    Not for the claustrophobic: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Chelsea/220-Spencer-Ave-02150/unit-306/home/18960794

    Building looks like a former sanitarium or home for fallen women

  235. 485

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 448
    And Our Troll of the Week Is

    Juststopppesd by; how come you don’t have your own website? All you do is pick on SWE when the others were giving out comments. You contribute nothing.

    Did you pass math and science by copying cheater homework too at our public schools with practically no tests? What’s your credentials? Or are you a High school dropout?

    We know nothing about you, except you’re rude as Hades and love to pick on SWE….how old are you? 13?

  236. 486

    Time to Count the Flu Virus Testing in America, We’re #1 in the world in Flu Testing Now [we tested way more than China and Italy combined together, we Have an American designed Test…LOL], That Should Bring the Fuzzy Math death rate Way Down….and while You’re Planning Your Own Test to Lower the Bogus Death rates and Extend American Data, Pour Yourself a MJB and Read the brief Brief:

    “…Stay-home order may stretch longer as experts predict troubles ahead
    Social distancing is starting to work, a UW analysis says — but it still predicts overwhelmed hospitals and many coronavirus deaths in Washington. Residents may be ordered to stay home longer than two weeks, Gov. Jay Inslee said yesterday. How will this end? The lockdowns won’t have an easy on/off switch, scientists say. (Photo: Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)..”

    SWE’s Take: Trump announced yesterday that the Chinese flu math data was unreliable, I’d add in the Japanese and South Korean allegations too. Where’s all the Chinese Respirators available? Where’s Waldo? I hear the flu was bad in Spain too, the “scarce” Chinese test kits were unreliable junk. This village idiot globalist push to sell us over-priced junk is throwing all its Lemmings into the killer flu pit now.

    “…The West Seattle Bridge is so badly cracked that it needs to be shored up before repairs can start. Take a look…”

    SWE’s Take: Sounds Like the Death Risks Of “Bridge Collapse” Getting to the Toll Tunnel on Hwy 99 are worse now than the flu?

    “…Shoppers sprinting to the toilet-paper aisle of a Missouri store got a sweet surprise that had nothing to do with hoarding…”

    SWE’s take: The Tukwila WINCO had about 10 packages of toilet paper left yesterday….the store was almost empty too. The hoarders cleaned out the shelves days ago and now the lemming hoards don’t need to shop any more now? I’ve never seen WINCO this empty in months? Are COSTCOs showing less shoppers now too? We’re broke waiting for stimulus checks delayed to next Winter now? The freeways are ghost towns now too.

    “….Boeing CEO David Calhoun must be realistic and accept a stimulus loan, along with the corporate limitations that come with it, if the company needs a bailout to survive, The Seattle Times editorial board writes…”

    SWE’s take: Boeing out sources way too much 737 work to Japan to get much stimulus money. Give the stimulus checks to American citizens working for Boeing instead…its called a “trickle up” economy and no welfare to foreign parasites out sourcing. Let Japan eat cake and fund their own Boeing flu stimulus from their own taxes.

    Good News: The new “MASS American designed computerized testing” [ includes “quick” self testing kits too available now for flu in America] makes globalist bent China, Spain and Italy with their joke Chinese “subpar” testers look like village idiots in comparison. The case numbers shot way up in America now, WAY UP….America’s death rate shot way down too. America is #1 for lowest death rate in the world now…LOL…American engineers design better cars and military equipment too, for FAR less money too than over-priced Communist or Socialist countries.

  237. 487

    RE: David @ 384
    Yes David

    Its good you found a safe place for your loot too like:

    https://banking.citi.com/cbol/savings/high-yield-savings/default.htm?channel=affiliate&promo_ID=4CEWQH4ZENDAFA&cmp=AFA~02~190114~BANKACQS~Q12019~HYS~Savings~Bankrate~RateTable&dclid=CNHsnJ-Hu-gCFZ0C-QAdnCIM4Q&BT_TX=1&ProspectID=E1C4A19215474D16905F26A51C3CBC04

    1.6% interest, no minimum deposit or “401K type CD locked box” either….stuff it there and smile.
    I did a rough “early retirement” calculation on taking over my own 1999 6% 10/20 home loan from the banks entirely when they offered converting to a 4.5% 20 year ARM in 2009…since I paid that baby off all the 20 years of principle were recovered about 10 years later, instead of 20. And its not like tax free interest made on 4.5%, its more like 5-6% $CASH$ before taxes for early retirement now, its net pay.

    Be your own bank and smile. Don’t let the IRS smile too…

  238. 488

    RE: Beano @ 470

    Thank you. My grandmother ran the food operation in the local Bocce Club. Might be the one you heard spoken of in The Irishman if you saw that movie. But she had 8 children and never lived alone, so was never fully dependent on the earnings there. My cousin Bobby runs it as a pasta making business now, and for 50 years, that services restaurants but also sells it in grocery stores in PA, NJ and Delaware. His Mother is my Father’s sister so it has his father’s name on it and not mine or my grandmother’s. That’s Bobby in the picture. He’s been working his butt off there since he was a kid.

    https://www.delcotimes.com/business/scaramuzza-s-pasta-products-gets-ready-to-move-into-new/article_6a20525a-e327-11e9-b0e8-ff6ea2ca8628.html

    He’s a bit older than me, a year or two. Maybe part of “the comeback” is for some of us to retire sooner than later. I remember hearing a lot of this back in 2008. Fewer people coming back in to the work force might help. I’m pretty sure My Aunt (his mother) and he always owned vs rented their properties from day one where the original store was “downstairs” from their house. I grew up that way as well with my Dad’s store downstairs and owned, not rented. This article has Aunt Mary, Uncle Vincent and Bobby well into his career by then in the photo. Family business since 1962 and before if you count my Nanno cooking at the Bocce Club.

    https://www.scaramuzzaspasta.com/history.html

    I will say when I heard on my Alexa NPR news when waking up this morning that The Cheesecake Factory didn’t have a few months of rent in reserves, I decided to be a little more compassionate to my few family members who also don’t have that.

    I went to zero debt and hoarding cash after the 2008 crash, so am in a position to help those of mine who need it most. We all need to check on our extended families. They are staying home somewhat for us older people, my partner more specifically than me. We need to have their backs is my feeling.

    Immigrants (I’m 2nd generation American) have always taken care of their own vs relying on charities or government for the most part. No one in my extended family is in financial trouble, but their mental health, mine included on some days of this roller coaster ride, is another story. I may have to hit that weed store, but I wouldn’t know what to buy. :) My son in law bought me some kind of weed pen for my 60th birthday. I’ll have to dig that out.

    Seriously I did buy a 6 pack of Guinness in bottles on June 4, 2019 (per facebook) and drank one on my 65th birthday. I had the remaining 5 in the pantry when this started and I now have 3 left. My guess is that 6 pack will be gone before they let us out again. Apparently telling a workaholic they can’t work drives them to drink. :) But so far it’s been one beer every two weeks or so. I may have to accelerate that a bit.

    My best to all of you and in Erik’s words “Code Monkey” I hope a lot of you are “Code Monkeys” because unlike many people, most of those are still getting paid to stay home.

  239. 489

    RE: Brianna @ 445
    Look for the Comments Who Contribute Nothing Like You

    I imagine they have no experience or credentials either…village idiots in my book.

    I have my own SWE web site do you? Mine is called “OVERPOPULATION”. Check it out.

  240. 490
    David says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 475 – Businesses can get rent payment loans under the Wuhan Bill and have those rent loans FORGIVEN completely if they REHIRE the laid off workers.

    Flouting the Government – I’m heading out to Home Depot right now.

    #RealEconomicHero
    #BigNads

  241. 491
    Ardell DellaLoggia says:

    RE: David @ 477

    I’m pretty sure Home Depot is closed.

  242. 492
    Juststoppedby says:

    By softwarengineer @ 472:

    RE: Juststoppedby @ 448
    And Our Troll of the Week Is

    Juststopppesd by; how come you don’t have your own website? All you do is pick on SWE when the others were giving out comments. You contribute nothing.

    Did you pass math and science by copying cheater homework too at our public schools with practically no tests? What’s your credentials? Or are you a High school dropout?

    We know nothing about you, except you’re rude as Hades and love to pick on SWE….how old are you? 13?

    [laughs and shakes head]
    Wah-wa-wa-Wah-wa-wa-WA-wa

    I’m not sure how exactly to type the sounds that the kids hear when the teacher in the Charlie Brown cartoons talks, but this is my best guess at this point.

    Seems appropriate given your consistent blathering.

  243. 493
    Juststoppedby says:

    By David @ 477:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 475 – Businesses can get rent payment loans under the Wuhan Bill and have those rent loans FORGIVEN completely if they REHIRE the laid off workers.

    Flouting the Government – I’m heading out to Home Depot right now.

    #RealEconomicHero
    #BigNads

    Seems to me that many of the younger/healthier people who are being careful right now really don’t want to risk killing somebody’s grandparents.

    We had a fair amount of covid in my neighborhood early on, and I know that was my biggest concern.

    Interesting that being careful for a reason like that doesn’t seem so cool to you…

  244. 494
    Beano says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 475

    Great stories of the family food business.

    I lived in Jersey for 3 years and that kind of business is so common, part of fabric of local culture.

    The smart restaurant and bar owners bought their buildings using cash flow from business. In % terms, the cost of the building is rather small for this type of businesses – less than 10% of top line – or that should be your max if you are doing it right.

    You can “break even” but still come out with real estate assets in the end.

    Most long time successful family businesses did this and that’s a nice buffer.

  245. 495

    RE: Blurtman @ 471

    It’s actually an old Catholic School built in 1900 or before. A bit older than our Queen Anne High School that was converted to condos.

    Those “loft” units are in the dormered attic space.

    Many old buildings will say “1900”, and that is particularly true here, when they are in fact older than 1900. Some County Records just throw everything before 1900 into a “1900” category.

    I like these conversions of old buildings more than tearing them down and building new. It’s not a new conversion.

  246. 496

    RE: Beano @ 481

    Works especially well when the family lives above it. Bobby opened a big warehouse operation a long time ago (recently moved to new space) while his parents still operated “the store” for many, many years in the same building where they all lived.

    I think Bobby rented the first large space that was separate from his Mom’s small time operation where Nanno and Aunt Mary made and cooked things in the back. So I’m not sure if he owns the building he’s in now. He is the one that turned the Mom and Pop operation into a larger enterprise. Somewhat like Gary Vee did with his parent’s wine business.

    The old home/store was sold some time around the 50th Anniversary of the business after his parents who lived there passed away. None of the sons lived in the house as adults. Maybe Bobby did before he got married. Hard to say because all I’ve ever seen him do was play football and work. :) I don’t think he did a whole lot of “living” before he got married at a somewhat late age. In fact his wife is a girl who used to work in the store with Nanno and Aunt Mary.

    Some immigrants created a full life for their children and grandchildren and great grand children and beyond out of a small business they started in their kitchen. Nanno used to make gnocchi in her kitchen and sell them for a dime a bag. Her husband died in 1949 long before the business opened. There were an arranged marriage. Nanno was sent here to marry him when she was 19.

    When family pulls together to make a better life for everyone, it really is a beautiful thing. Maybe we’ll see more of that. I can be my daughter’s live in real estate assistant. :)

  247. 497
    kenmorem says:

    By Beano @ 469:

    By David @ 468:

    RE: kenmorem @ 467 – I do by going out and doing whatever I want all day, every day.

    Same.

    It’s not that difficult or heroic.

    Dr. Birx exposed the entire field of epidemiology today. They are frauds and are never accurate or close to accurate. Most of their failed work has fueled this panic. Should we be concerned? Yes. Panicked? No.

    hopefully, when you contract it, you do not need a ventilator. i’m sure that’s just more fake news (depending on which day the tweet is sent). you two are clueless.

  248. 498
    Erik says:

    RE: kenmorem @ 484
    You are not someone that should be calling others clueless. I’ve read your low quality comments for years, please leave. I’m embarrassed for you. You are making the intelligent Democrats like Deerhawke look bad.

  249. 499
    uwp says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 478:

    I’m pretty sure Home Depot is closed.

    They’re open. An “essential retailer.”

  250. 500

    RE: uwp @ 486

    Well I hope only people go there for an “essential purpose then. :)

    Oddly I keep thinking about the people who got sued or charged with attempted murder or something along those lines when they had sex with people knowing they had the AIDs virus. Maybe that’s next for people going to Home Depot just to get a daffodil or some gardening supplies. :)

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