As was noted back in October, graphs of the rise and fall of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for a number of markets (e.g. San Diego and Seattle) is surprisingly symmetrical. I’ll be the first to admit that this method hardly qualifies as a rigorous scientific analysis of price trends. The apparent relationship between the…
Author: The Tim
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.
Bottom-Calling: Dollars per Square Foot Linear Forecast
For our next forecast, let’s refer to a dataset that we’ve only gone to once before on Seattle Bubble: Radar Logic’s Residential Property Index. Radar Logic analyzes home sales and produces a running index of sale prices in the Seattle metro area in terms of dollars per square foot. Here are our basic assumptions for…
Bottom-Calling: Inventory-Based Forecast
Long-time readers may recall Deejayoh’s inaugural Seattle Bubble article from June 2007: Why Inventory Matters. In it, he postulated that the Seattle-area Case-Shiller Home Price Index could be relatively accurately predicted fourteen months in advance by looking at year-over-year house inventory on the MLS. Let’s extend Deejayoh’s analysis fourteen months into the future to see…
Bottom-Calling Week on Seattle Bubble
There’s been a lot of talk lately about whether or not the Seattle-area real estate market is “at bottom.” Before I go any further, I should point out that as a practical matter, I think that it doesn’t really matter where the absolute bottom is. As I have always said: If you find a home…
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