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Author: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

Comparing Past Market Crashes

Posted on October 24, 2008October 24, 2008 by The Tim

Since the stock market is all over the news again today, I thought it would be interesting to look at some past stock crashes and see how the current one compares. In the chart below I have graphed the crashes of 1929, 1973, 1987, and 2001 alongside the current fall, with the peak points aligned…

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September Foreclosure Data (w/ Long-Term Chart)

Posted on October 23, 2008October 24, 2008 by The Tim

When I posted August foreclosure data from RealtyTrac last month with data going back to 2005, a complaint was aired (which I agreed with) that 2005-2008 is not sufficiently long-term. So, I spent some time with King County Records, and generated the following chart of Notice of Trustee sales going all the way back to…

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SmartMoney: Seattle in Best Shape for a “Rebound”

Posted on October 22, 2008October 22, 2008 by The Tim

Although the local media can be a pretty good source of amusing overly optimistic predictions, they certainly don’t have the monopoly. Check out this entertaining article from SmartMoney magazine: Home Prices: Now for the Good News We dug into [the PMI risk index] as well as other forecasts and analysis to determine which markets are…

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“Out here in Seattle, we were living in a bubble.”

Posted on October 21, 2008October 28, 2008 by The Tim

These articles are a bit off-topic from the usual news about residential real estate, but I thought they were at least worth a brief mention. New York Times: In Seattle, Office Vacancy Rate Is Rising Fast Not long ago, Seattle looked invincible, even as an economic downturn was starting to plague the rest of the…

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Puget Sound Counties September NWMLS Update

Posted on October 21, 2008December 9, 2008 by The Tim

Let’s check in on the NWMLS statistics from around the sound. Here’s where the YOY stats stand for each of the six counties as of September 2008: King – Price: -7.8% | Listings: +4.6% | Sales: +14.7% | MOS: 6.6 Snohomish – Price: -9.8% | Listings: -3.7% | Sales: -6.8% | MOS: 8.8 Pierce –…

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